2015-16 UNC Record predictions

[ACokeForRoy]

Thought it might be a good time to discuss thoughts on the schedule and give out some record predictions based on what we know. I'm not ready just yet but maybe someone else is ready. I DO know that how the USC game goes is a huge factor in how the season will go.

 

[ACokeForRoy]

Ok Ok - 9-3

South Carolina Charlotte, N.C.- W - Yeah I know but we gut out a close one after falling behind - maybe 34-31
North Carolina A&T Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Illinois Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Delaware Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Georgia Tech * at Atlanta, Ga. - L - Losing streak in ATL continues
Wake Forest * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Virginia * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Pittsburgh * at Pittsburgh, Pa. - L - Comes out flat after entering the polls for the first time this season
Duke * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Miami * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Virginia Tech * at Blacksburg, Va. - L - "Bud"
North Carolina State * at Raleigh, N.C. - W

End the season ranked somewhere in the high teens...

 

[HeelHeat1]

I say 7-5 with losses to lamecocks, va tech, ga tech, moo u, Miami. I hope I am wrong but based on the current talent we have I don't see us that improved from last year.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Ok Ok - 9-3

South Carolina Charlotte, N.C.- W - Yeah I know but we gut out a close one after falling behind - maybe 34-31
North Carolina A&T Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Illinois Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Delaware Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Georgia Tech * at Atlanta, Ga. - L - Losing streak in ATL continues
Wake Forest * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Virginia * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Pittsburgh * at Pittsburgh, Pa. - L - Comes out flat after entering the polls for the first time this season
Duke * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Miami * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Virginia Tech * at Blacksburg, Va. - L - "Bud"
North Carolina State * at Raleigh, N.C. - W

End the season ranked somewhere in the high teens...

Your prediction and comments crack me up because they are so accurate that it hurts. I can totally see us navigating the season in the exact way you lay out. That hypothetical 'coming out flat' and losing to Pitt is definitely something this program would do. And you're correct to predict an 'L' in Atlanta. This should always be penciled in as a loss until that trend is finally broken.

Not quite ready to post my W/L's yet, though.

 

[uncboy10]

10-3

South Carolina Charlotte, N.C.- W
North Carolina A&T Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Illinois Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Delaware Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Georgia Tech * at Atlanta, Ga. - L
Wake Forest * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Virginia * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Pittsburgh * at Pittsburgh, Pa. - W
Duke * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Miami * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Virginia Tech * at Blacksburg, Va. - L
North Carolina State * at Raleigh, N.C. - W

ACCCG vs Clempsun - W

Tax Slayer Bowl vs UGA - L


Either that or I'll be having beer for breakfast by week 5

 

[TarHeelNation11]

@uncboy10 ^^ gonna be tough to make the ACCCG with losses to VT and GT. That would require both of those teams to lose 3 conference games (which is a possibility, but still).

Oh, and I'll be drinking beer for breakfast regardless of W/L's. You kinda have to at those noon and 12:30 kickoff home tailgates.

 

[uncboy10]

I think GT is really gonna struggle with that schedule. And they've got to replace almost all of their rushing production, which in PJ's system doesn't seem like it would be a problem, but I do think they'll turn the ball over more as a result of inexperience. Especially in the big games. Unless they can beat FSU or Clempsun they would have to run the table in the Coastal to finish with only 2 losses.

As for VT, I really think their offense is going to hold them back. But their definitely the team we should be worried about, considering they have the next easiest conference schedule. Maybe a beating from tOSU week 1 will let the air out of their tires, but then again it might fire them up. Unfortunately, after that game, the chokies have some time to work out their offensive problems before ACC play starts.

If we really we're going to go 10-2 I think its more likely we beat VT, and lose a game to someone like Pitt or Miami. Its going to be tough to score on their D, but if we can find something that works offensively, their O will struggle to keep them in the game even against our defense. The biggest thing I like about the VT match-up is how late in the year it is. That gives Chizik time to make as much progress on D as possible.

 

[WoadBlue]

@uncboy10 ^^ gonna be tough to make the ACCCG with losses to VT and GT. That would require both of those teams to lose 3 conference games (which is a possibility, but still).

Oh, and I'll be drinking beer for breakfast regardless of W/L's. You kinda have to at those noon and 12:30 kickoff home tailgates.

The problem with us taking advantage of a relatively weak ACC slate to win the division that is up in the air is what you note: playing at GT and VT. Atlanta is certain death, and this VT D could be the best in the country.

 

[uncboy10]

I would disagree about Atlanta for this year, only because we beat them last year. That should give the guys a pretty big confidence boost. Also, their defense isn't normally anywhere near as bad as it was last year.

To be completely honest I'm more worried about this team's ability to stay focused every week and take care of business against teams they should beat.

For the GT and VT games to matter, we have to also beat Pitt, Wake, UVA, Mia and Dook. Or at the very least 4 out of 5. We've got a big time senior QB leading a great offense, anything can happen if this team puts itself in a position to do something great instead of putting themselves behind the 8 ball and trying to claw their way back into contention.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

....anything can happen if this team puts itself in a position to do something great instead of putting themselves behind the 8 ball and trying to claw their way back into contention.

Which is precisely why I maintain the GT game is the most important game on the schedule (there was a thread on premium or this board -- can't remember which -- that asked which game was more important). Since 2002 I believe -- I keep having to look up the stat because I forget the exact number -- we have won our first ACC game only TWO times. Two. That's it. I.E., we start every single season 0-1 in conference....usually with the loss coming against a division foe, and usually it's GT. So every year we are behind the 8-ball right off the bat.

Whether we beat SCar by 100 or lose to them by 100, the result of the GT game will define the success threshold of our season.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

[new post, for emphasis]

In fact, I dare say that the game in Atlanta will be the most important game in Carolina Football history this side of the '97 FSU game. If Tech can win at Notre Dame (a very real possibility; there are still question marks at QB for ND, among other things) and at Duke (GT owes Duke some payback), then they will surely be a Top 15 team by the date of their game with us. And even if we lose to SCar, we may sneak into the Top 25 by the GT game.

 

[uncboy10]

Yeah I would agree that in all likelihood the entire season hangs on the GT game. We discussed this in another thread, and while I still think it would be possible to bounce back and still win the Coastal, it would take a heroic effort so we might as well assume its a must win game.

However, everyone is making it out to be impossible to win in Atlanta, when the problem really has just been beating GT at all. Sure, we've only beat them in Atlanta once since 2000, but we've only beat them 3 times total in the same time span so IMO where the game is played isn't really that much of a factor.

The thing I like about the GT game is that having a great defense isn't necessarily a factor against them. It takes an offense that puts up points and a defense that can force opportune turnovers, so our odds against them should be as good or better than anyone in the Coastal.

 

[WoadBlue]

Yeah I would agree that in all likelihood the entire season hangs on the GT game. We discussed this in another thread, and while I still think it would be possible to bounce back and still win the Coastal, it would take a heroic effort so we might as well assume its a must win game.

However, everyone is making it out to be impossible to win in Atlanta, when the problem really has just been beating GT at all. Sure, we've only beat them in Atlanta once since 2000, but we've only beat them 3 times total in the same time span so IMO where the game is played isn't really that much of a factor.

The thing I like about the GT game is that having a great defense isn't necessarily a factor against them. It takes an offense that puts up points and a defense that can force opportune turnovers, so our odds against them should be as good or better than anyone in the Coastal.

Explaining that GT since Mack has owned us in Chapel Hill too doesn't help your case. It marks more fully how GT has something on us. When that is the case in sports, it can go on for decades. The Yankees had it on the Red Sox for more than 80 years, from the trade of Babe Ruth until the miracle come back from 0-3.

Yes, if we beat GT this year, we might be about to break out. But seeing that as even a 50-50 possibility with our post-Mack history is extremely optimistic.

 

[uncboy10]

Explaining that GT since Mack has owned us in Chapel Hill too doesn't help your case. It marks more fully how GT has something on us. When that is the case in sports, it can go on for decades. The Yankees had it on the Red Sox for more than 80 years, from the trade of Babe Ruth until the miracle come back from 0-3.

Yes, if we beat GT this year, we might be about to break out. But seeing that as even a 50-50 possibility with our post-Mack history is extremely optimistic.

I wasn't trying to make the case that we have a better chance against them because of that. I was just saying that I think its just more of the case that GT has our number regardless of where we play. The Red Sox wouldn't say they were cursed at Yankee stadium, because they got beat at Fenway too.

Either way 50-50 is about the best I can bring myself to hope for

 

[uncboy10]

With regards to things other than winning the Coastal, the USuCk game is a huge opportunity to re-brand Carolina football in front of a ton of viewers and maybe provide the extra win to get 9 or possibly even 10 wins. I hear a lot of people argue about what impresses recruits, but I don't think there is any question that winning impresses above all else.

If recruits see 10 win seasons in their future, and their parents see a degree from the University of North Carolina in their kid's future, then a lot more of those big time 4 and 5 star recruits will start rolling into Chapel Hill which generally doesn't lead to less winning. Especially with an offensive system that emphasizes athleticism the way Fed's does

 

[ACokeForRoy]

Watched the replay of the GaTech / FSU ACCCG last night. Watching that GaTech offense give FSU fits is another reminder that a win in Atlanta is 50-50 at best. Only chance you have against GaTech is to get up by at least 2 scores which forces them away from there bread and butter and forces them to throw the ball more.

 

[uncboy10]

Another big factor against GT that I don't think has been mentioned yet is red zone efficiency. With the decrease in offensive possessions, getting TD's out of red zone trips becomes all the more important.

I'm interested to see how differently Chizik approaches defending the option

 

[WoadBlue]

Another big factor against GT that I don't think has been mentioned yet is red zone efficiency. With the decrease in offensive possessions, getting TD's out of red zone trips becomes all the more important.

I'm interested to see how differently Chizik approaches defending the option

Fundamentally sound tackling helps a great deal. So does having players stay in their lanes. So does showing an ability to fight off blocks.

 

[bobby121567]

GT will not be easy. But every year is different. We will have 4 games under our belt. Which will help Gene to hopefully get a lot of the bugs out of our defensive system. Plus all streaks must end at some point and time. Remember the UVA struggles. We finally beat them at UVA for the first time in something like 20 years. And ever since we snapped that streak. I don't think we have lost to them since.

 

[uncboy10]

I'd like our chances a lot better if we beat USuCk and go in to that one 4-0. I want to see what a Larry Fedora team with something to play for looks like.

 

[JimmyinVA]

8-4 means we won all the games in which we were favored, or a toss up. 9-3 means we did that and pulled off one big upset. 10-2 means two big upsets. i'm expecting 8-4. and i'm hoping for 9-3.

 

[uncboy10]

I'm not so sure @JimmyinVA . Depending on where the defense is at, we could be favored in all the games except VT and GT.

Several places still have us as favorites against USuCk if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Raising Heel]

8-4 means we won all the games in which we were favored, or a toss up.

So you're saying we'd be the underdog in 4 games, and favored or toss-up in the other 8. Which 4 would we be the dogs?

The odds of winning all the toss-up games are not good (if we truly consider them 50/50 games). It depends on how many of the remaining 8 games you think are toss ups:

3 games: 1 in 8 chance (13%)
4 games: 1 in 16 chance (6%)
5 games: 1 in 32 chance (3%)

I've been saying 8-4 is probably our ceiling this season, but I'm a bit bearish on that prediction until I see the product on the field. I wouldn't be surprised if we went 7-5 with losses to USCjr, GT, VT, and 2 of 3 against Pitt, Miami, and MooU.

 

[Raising Heel]

LOL. @uncboy10 and I both respond to @JimmyinVA but go different directions on his picks.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

I've been saying 8-4 is probably our ceiling this season, but I'm a bit bearish on that prediction until I see the product on the field. I wouldn't be surprised if we went 7-5 with losses to USCjr, GT, VT, and 2 of 3 against Pitt, Miami, and MooU.

This is how it's gonna go down people. Just accept it now and it will be easier to take. Approach it like a salesman......under-promise and (hopefully) over-deliver.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

I'm ready. TarHeelNation11 has analyzed the schedule, carefully weighed all factors, and the following is how the season will play out:

South Carolina Charlotte, N.C.- L - Man, this is going to suck [again]
North Carolina A&T Chapel Hill, N.C. - W
Illinois Chapel Hill, N.C. - W - but in an edge-of-your-seat San Diego State-type way.
Delaware Chapel Hill, N.C. - W - screw you Joe Flacco
Georgia Tech * at Atlanta, Ga. - L - Death. Taxes. Losing to GT Football in Atlanta.
Wake Forest * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W - finally, we blow these Florists out for once.
Virginia * Chapel Hill, N.C. - L - because 4-2 is too many games over .500 for this program.
Pittsburgh * at Pittsburgh, Pa. - W - One of those games where we look like All-Stars and wonder why we can't do this every game. The 17 Pitt fans in attendance leave at half-time.
Duke * Chapel Hill, N.C. - W - We spray paint the Kenan visitors locker room after the win.
Miami * Chapel Hill, N.C. - L - Kaaya goes ham on us, making our secondary look 2014-ish
Virginia Tech * at Blacksburg, Va. - L - GD Hokies. GD Enter Sandman. GD Lunchpail. GD Bud.
North Carolina State * at Raleigh, N.C. - W - We spray paint ALL OF RALEIGH

2015 Record: (7-5, 4-4 in ACC, finish 3rd in Coastal)

 

[uncboy10]

The thing I like about this schedule, is that whether you think we'll go 7-5, or 9-3 most of the games look like they should be close. When that is the case the ball bouncing your way a few times can make it a special year.

 

[Raising Heel]

The thing I like about this schedule, is that whether you think we'll go 7-5, or 9-3 most of the games look like they should be close. When that is the case the ball bouncing your way a few times can make it a special year.

Absolutely, and that has been the case in the Coastal the last several years.

I saw a couple interesting stats Monday that bear this out. Only three Power 5 teams lost 5 games decided by a TD or less last season, and all three are in the ACC Coastal (Pitt, UVA, VT). Also, VT and BC were two of four P5 teams to lose three games by a FG or less (Stanford and Iowa were the others). The point is that there is a tremendous amount of parity among middling teams in the ACC, most of which reside in our division. And yes, I hate the word parity but couldn't think of a better replacement, haha.

 

[bobby121567]

I would agree with THNation except the UVA game. Right now I would say 8-4. It's just to hard to predict this team right now. I mean there are veritables. 1) this is only the first year after the probation. Last year and this year should be our worst years. 2) as bad as our D was last year. How much better will it be? Chizik is a really good coach. But is the right type of kids already here to run his D the Gene Chizik way. Hope that makes sense. 3) depth truly talented depth. How much do we have? 4) with the lack of depth most likely in certain areas on our team. Does our injuries that do accur happen to the right position groups where we do have quality depth? None the less I am SO READY FOR SOME TAR HEEL FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!

 

[SlimGamecock]

The South Carolina vs Carolina game will be a good game. Looking forward to that one very much.

 

[alan4unc]

7-5 or 9-3...can't make up my mind just yet.

 

[grillheel]

I'm going with 7-5. I think we lose to uscjr, even though it could be closer than some think and we go 4-4 in conference. I'm hoping I'm wrong but trying to be realistic.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

I'm going with 7-5. I think we lose to uscjr, even though it could be closer than some think and we go 4-4 in conference. I'm hoping I'm wrong but trying to be realistic.

I'm predicting you go 7-0 at home though in the tailgate colum

 

[grillheel]

I'm predicting you go 7-0 at home though in the tailgate colum

Thanks THN11, looking forward to it! From the response we got from the "perfect tailgate" thread though, I guess it will just be a few of us showing up! We'll have fun anyway!

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Thanks THN11, looking forward to it! From the response we got from the "perfect tailgate" thread though, I guess it will just be a few of us showing up! We'll have fun anyway!

Yeah WTF, no one jumped in on that thread. I wasn't pleased. Tailgating just isn't a UNC thing. Shame too, because it is a blast.

 

[grillheel]

Yeah WTF, no one jumped in on that thread. I wasn't pleased. Tailgating just isn't a UNC thing. Shame too, because it is a blast.

Yep.

 

[UNC71-00]

7-5 or 6-6.

I have been a Carolina fan for 44 years. I know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, how this story goes.

 

[rdcb]

9-3 regular season with wins over USCjr and VT. Take losses to Miami, GT, and a unexpected loss to UVA that keep us out of the ACCCG.

 

[uncboy10]

If we lose to UVA you guys may not hear from me for a few days.

 

[GoToHeelDook]

If we can pull off 2 of the 4 of SC, GT, Miami, and VT we could have a special season. I think that is truly possible, most likely with the wins coming against SC and VT.