2015 Season: Over/Under

[TarHeelNation11]

Below are some over/unders I've set for various Tar Heel statistics this upcoming season. Have a look and give each one your best guess. Now that the new board set-up allows us to scroll back real far to find old threads, we'll be able to reference this thread throughout the season and track progress. It could be fun to track some battles within the war, so to speak -- especially if the season goes south. Also, feel free to give analysis/explanation to your choices.

Number of Tar Heels who rush for 500 or more yards; O/U = 2.5
**note: For Marquise Williams or any QB, I will include loss of yards for sacks when totaling rush yards

Average points per game allowed; O/U = 34.5
**note: Last season's avg ppg allowed was 39.0

Switzer total receiving yards; O/U = 749.5
**note: Switzer had 762 receiving yards in '14

Most points scored by the Heels in one game this season; O/U = 55.5

T.J. Logan rushing TD's; O/U = 5.5
**note: 2014 total was 3

Bug Howard + Quinshad Davis total receptions; O/U = 89.5
**note, 2014 total was 83 -- Bug (42), Quinshad (41)

Average offensive yards per play; O/U = 5.9
**note: 2014 yards per play was 5.56

Total season points scored by Carolina; O/U = 474.5
**note: 2014 total was 432

Marquise Williams total passing yards, season; O/U = 3199.5
**note: he threw for 3073 yards in '14

Rush yards per game allowed; O/U = 219.5
**note: last season's rush ypg allowed was 240.5

Pass yards per game allowed; O/U = 249.5
**note: last season's pass ypg allowed was 257.4

Wins; O/U = 8.5

 

[HeelFan58]

You aren't looking for much defensive improvement are you?

 

[Raising Heel]

First of all, I don't ever -- ever -- want to hear another word from you about my stats posts.

I'll put my responses in a separate post.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

You aren't looking for much defensive improvement are you?

Actually I am, but I set the O/U's with two things in mind:
1) level of difficulty to make it challenging
2) reasonable expectations.

That being said, my set numbers would certainly constitute defensive improvement. Dropping the points per game 5.5 points would be pretty impactful. That's nearly one fewer TD allowed per game. Give us those 5.5 points back against ND and we are right in the thick of it with time winding down. I only lowered the "passing yards per game allowed" O/U like 8 points because we did OK in pass defense last year. We were still bad, but not nearly as bad as our run defense (which I set at a predicted 21-yard per game improvement). Those may not seem like huge improvements, but it would definitely be a start. Might make the difference in 8 wins instead of 7.

 

[Raising Heel]

Number of Tar Heels who rush for 500 or more yards; O/U = 2.5
Over - Marquise Williams, T.J. Logan, and Elijah Hood

Average points per game allowed; O/U = 34.5
Under - I'm thinking somewhere in the upper 20s or lower 30s

Switzer total receiving yards; O/U = 749.5
Under - With only Thorpe gone and guys like Juval Mollette and Josh Cabrera coming on board, there won't be enough passes to go around. I'd be surprised if any of the receivers hit the 750-yard mark, although that prediction might change depending on Quinshad Davis' recovery.

Most points scored by the Heels in one game this season; O/U = 55.5
Over - UNC will score a billionty points against NC A&T

T.J. Logan rushing TD's; O/U = 5.5
Over - He was seriously underutilized last season, and my hopes are that a more mature offensive line will let him go off. I still think he's the most explosive back on our roster.

Bug Howard + Quinshad Davis total receptions; O/U = 89.5
Under - Tough call, but see above comments.

Average offensive yards per play; O/U = 5.9
Over - Averaging 5.9 ypp would put us in the top 40 or 50 offenses nationally. That's a very reasonable expectation.

Total season points scored by Carolina; O/U = 474.5
Under - In 12 games, that would be an average of 39.5 ppg. In 13 games, that would be an average of 36.5 ppg. In 11 games, that would be an average of 43.1 ppg. I expect UNC to be bowl eligible but not win the Coastal, and 39.5 ppg sounds too high. I suspect we'll see fewer shoot-outs thanks to a respectable defense.

Marquise Williams total passing yards, season; O/U = 3199.5
Under - We'll see a more potent rushing game and play from behind less often, requiring less passing.

Rush yards per game allowed; O/U = 219.5
Under - Lord have mercy.

Pass yards per game allowed; O/U = 249.5
Under - See above.

Wins; O/U = 8.5
Under - UNC will be better, but not good enough to crack the 9-win ceiling.

 

[gregkb14]

Number of Tar Heels who rush for 500 or more yards; O/U = 2.5
Over - Marquise Williams, T.J. Logan, and Elijah Hood

Average points per game allowed; O/U = 34.5
Under - Somewhere right around 30

Switzer total receiving yards; O/U = 749.5
Over - I think he will consistently have 60yds and a handful of big games 100yds+

Most points scored by the Heels in one game this season; O/U = 55.5
Over - 56 is a lot but we've shown the ability to put those numbers up

T.J. Logan rushing TD's; O/U = 5.5
Over - I bet he has 6 before we play a conference game

Bug Howard + Quinshad Davis total receptions; O/U = 89.5
Over - 4 catches per game for both is quite doable

Average offensive yards per play; O/U = 5.9
Over - We just have to avoid the few dud offensive games like we had last year and should be above this

Total season points scored by Carolina; O/U = 474.5
Over - Again avoid the several dud games and we should be at 40pts per

Marquise Williams total passing yards, season; O/U = 3199.5
Under - Running game will carry a bit more of the load

Rush yards per game allowed; O/U = 219.5
Under - Definitely, 180 would be nice but gotta be under 200

Pass yards per game allowed; O/U = 249.5
Under - Hopefully, let's shoot for 225

Wins; O/U = 8.5
Over - Win vs the chickens and we will finally get back to 9 wins

 

[uncboy10]

Number of Tar Heels who rush for 500 or more yards; O/U = 2.5

Over. Marquise, Logan, Hood. Morris might even get there. A ton of returning experience should help the o-line open up holes for these guys and keep things rolling.

Average points per game allowed; O/U = 34.5

Under. Easier scheme means guys should be in position and be able to focus on making plays. There probably isn't a defensive play caller in college football better than Gene Chizik. 27.5

Switzer total receiving yards; O/U = 749.5

Over. If MW can consistently deliver deep balls he could blow this number out of the water. A consistent running game also opens up the screen game by forcing teams to put more players in the box. Which makes a guy like Switz much more of a threat to break one off

Most points scored by the Heels in one game this season; O/U = 55.5

Over. vs NC A&T - 80. Delaware could be a close runner up. No reason we shouldn't hang 70 on them. & the earlier we put those games away, the more reps Mitch can get

T.J. Logan rushing TD's; O/U = 5.5

Tough call but under. Elijah Hood should be the obvious choice in the red zone which hurts TJ's numbers.

Bug Howard + Quinshad Davis total receptions; O/U = 89.5

Over. O-Line experience should help give Quise have more time to find these guys.

Average offensive yards per play; O/U = 5.9

Over. I'd say closer to 6.5

Total season points scored by Carolina; O/U = 474.5

Over if including a bowl game, I'd say about 490 over 13 games

Marquise Williams total passing yards, season; O/U = 3199.5

Over. I'll guess 3450

Rush yards per game allowed; O/U = 219.5

Under. 185 hopefully

Pass yards per game allowed; O/U = 249.5

Under. Hopefully closer to 200, I'd guess about 220

Wins; O/U = 8.5

Over. Hoping for 9 wins and a good bowl, easy schedule should pad the win column.

 

[Raising Heel]

& the earlier we put those games away, the more reps Mitch can get.

Good point.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Good point.

Don't forget about Caleb Hendo, too

 

[TarHeelNation11]

and @uncboy10 ,

I love your optimism. I wish I could be as optimistic -- I'd even say I was that optimistic a few short years ago. Now I'm jaded like all the old-timers on here haha. My predictions in a post to follow..

 

[TarHeelNation11]

First of all, I must say that I set some pretty awesome lines in this thread. Props to myself. Also, let me add that these stats will include a 13th and 14th game, if applicable. Now let's get down to it.

Number of Tar Heels who rush for 500 or more yards; O/U = 2.5
Over; it's going to be close but Hood, Logan, and 'Quise will all do it. Like most offensive milestones I've listed, this one will benefit greatly from the NCA&T and Fightin' Flaccos games.

Average points per game allowed; O/U = 34.5
Under; but it's gonna be closer than the experts thing, as Corso likes to say. I think we'll have a couple WTF games where we give up a ton of points (games we still might win, btw), which will offset the gains we get against NCA&T and the Jammin' Joes.

Switzer total receiving yards; O/U = 749.5
Under; more targets and more of a traditional running game eat into Switzer's yardage (not necessarily a bad thing).

Most points scored by the Heels in one game this season; O/U = 55.5
Under; we'll get close against NCA&T and the Blue Lady Chickens, but we will call off the dogs before we get to 56...and maybe like, work on our run game, and stuff.

T.J. Logan rushing TD's; O/U = 5.5
Over; bruh, it better be over -- dude is a stud.

Bug Howard + Quinshad Davis total receptions; O/U = 89.5
Over; Howard is fixing to have a colossal year. You heard it here first. I'd also like to see Quinshad make a full recovery and do well to impress scouts. Besides H. Nicks, we're not really known for our receivers as a program. A high draft position by Quinshad and then Bug in 2017 would help our WR recruiting potentially.

Average offensive yards per play; O/U = 5.9
Over; by the thinnest of margins

Total season points scored by Carolina; O/U = 474.5
Under; we won't have to score as much hopefully

Marquise Williams total passing yards, season; O/U = 3199.5
Under; more running the ball and he'll miss 3-5 quarters between getting banged-up and mop-up time

Rush yards per game allowed; O/U = 219.5
Under; barely. You still need a good DL to stop the run, and we're not there yet unless a few guys progress substantially.

Pass yards per game allowed; O/U = 249.5
Under; my man Charlton Warren makes a huge impact from the get-go. This will be the best aspect of our defense.

Wins; O/U = 8.5
EDITED: Over; we'll finish 8-4, barely miss out on the Coastal, and end up in the Music City Bowl, which we'll win in convincing fashion against an SEC team to finish at 9-4, sending pundits rushing to their computers to write their "Watch out for the Tar Heels in 2016!" articles. I will also hit downtown Nashville after the game, specifically Whiskey Bent Saloon and Honky Tonk Tavern.

 

[uncboy10]

Wins; O/U = 8.5
Under *crying emoji*; we'll finish 8-4, barely miss out on the Coastal, and end up in the Music City Bowl, which we'll win in convincing fashion against an SEC team, sending pundits rushing to their computers to write their "Watch out for the Tar Heels in 2016!" articles. I will also hit downtown Nashville after the game, specifically Whiskey Bent Saloon and Honky Tonk Tavern.

Wouldn't 8-4 with a win in the MC bowl add up to 9 wins?

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Wouldn't 8-4 with a win in the MC bowl add up to 9 wins?

D'oh! Yes

 

[uncboy10]

@TarHeelNation11

Looks like you're more optimistic than you thought lol

 

[TarHeelNation11]

@TarHeelNation11

Looks like you're more optimistic than you thought lol

Yes and no. 8-4 regular season mark isn't anything to write home about, given our schedule. We'll be favored in probably 9 games this season.

 

[Realfreedom]

Number of Tar Heels who rush for 500 or more yards; O/U = 2.5
Over

Average points per game allowed; O/U = 34.5
Over

Switzer total receiving yards; O/U = 749.5
Over

Most points scored by the Heels in one game this season; O/U = 55.5
Over

T.J. Logan rushing TD's; O/U = 5.5
Under

Bug Howard + Quinshad Davis total receptions; O/U = 89.5
Over

Average offensive yards per play; O/U = 5.9
Over

Total season points scored by Carolina; O/U = 474.5
Under

Marquise Williams total passing yards, season; O/U = 3199.5
Under

Rush yards per game allowed; O/U = 219.5
Under

Pass yards per game allowed; O/U = 249.5
Under

Wins; O/U = 8.5
Over

 

[uncboy10]

Yes and no. 8-4 regular season mark isn't anything to write home about, given our schedule. We'll be favored in probably 9 games this season.

I agree. I'd like to see them hit 9-3 and win the coastal, with the potential for a ten win season with a win in the ACCCG or the bowl game.

THN, I know you don't like our chances against the chickens but I was just looking at their results from last year and its pretty encouraging. If Kentucky can hang 45 on them, I like our chances

 

[TarHeelNation11]

I agree. I'd like to see them hit 9-3 and win the coastal, with the potential for a ten win season with a win inTHN, I know you don't like our chances against the chickens but I was just looking at their results from last year and its pretty encouraging. If Kentucky can hang 45 on them, I like our chances

I agree with what you've posted, but as amusing as it sounds, Kentucky's Towles may have been the 3rd best QB in the whole SEC last year. And I agree that on paper we match up real well against USCjr.

I just don't see us taking advantage :/ the ECU, Clemson, VT, Miami, Moo, and Rutgers games (so basically all last season) are still too fresh in my mind.

 

[Raising Heel]

THN, I know you don't like our chances against the chickens but I was just looking at their results from last year and its pretty encouraging.

What do you think their fans are saying after looking at our results from last year?

 

[uncboy10]

What do you think their fans are saying after looking at our results from last year?

True. But their offense was pretty bad last year, and they have to break in a new QB with zero experience now. If both of our defenses are bad, but our offense is significantly better, we should have a pretty good chance. Against the new QB I would stack the box and make him prove he can throw it. Putting pressure in his face could result in a turnover or two that swing the game our way

 

[Raising Heel]

But their offense was pretty bad last year....

Not true at all. The only place we had an advantage over them was points per game...by a whopping 0.6 ppg.

 

[uncboy10]

Not true at all. The only place we had an advantage over them was points per game...by a whopping 0.6 ppg.

Fair enough, statistically their offense wasn't as bad as I remembered but I would still expect a drop off in production with a inexperienced QB. I still think we have a significant offensive upper hand against them, but our D-line has to compete in the trenches and stop their run game

Last time we played them, their defense was a lot better than it will be this year, and they were totally gassed late in the game. Hopefully this time we can jump out to a good start, and put pressure on the young QB

 

[SeaHawk98]

The only stat that matters is wins and unfortunately the history of this program clearly indicates < 8.5 wins. Maybe the team will pull a 180 from last year and exceed low expectations! The talent is there on offense but the play calling and coaching has got to get better. It will take years to reconstruct the defense but it really can only get better.

 

[JimmyinVA]

Wins; O/U = 8.5
EDITED: Over; we'll finish 8-4, barely miss out on the Coastal, and end up in the Music City Bowl... I will also hit downtown Nashville after the game, specifically Whiskey Bent Saloon and Honky Tonk Tavern.

i hope you're right. i love nashville and will definitely go if that's our bowl game.