ESPN: Toughest three-game stretch

[Raising Heel]

Stretch:
Nov. 14 vs. Miami
Nov. 21 at Virginia Tech
Nov. 28 at NC State

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/82629/toughest-three-game-stretch-north-Carolina

He incorrectly states that "the Heels thumped the Canes last year" but I imagine that'll get corrected in later versions of the story.

Do you guys agree with his three-game pick?

 

[UNC '92]

It could be the toughest. Duke, Miami and VT could also be the toughest.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Seems like they borrowed from my "most important 4-game stretch" thread on premium.... *side eyes emjoi*

 

[uncboy10]

I just want this stretch to be relevant. GT will be tough, but that's not a must win game anyways. Beat UVA, Pitt, and Wake and the last 4 games will at least matter even if they dont go our way.

Also should be interesting to compare the D from week 1 to week 10

 

[TarHeelNation11]

GT will be tough, but that's not a must win game anyways.

With all due respect, WHAT?! That game is "the elevator" on our schedule. Winning it can send us up to the rarified air of a possible ACCCG appearance; losing it almost assures we're heading down to the depths of the Coastal standings.

 

[Raising Heel]

Well, in his defense, it's possible to lose that game and still recover enough to make a run at the Coastal. The problem there is that we would need other Coastal contenders to have slip-ups of their own, and we could still probably only afford lose one other divisional game.

 

[uncboy10]

Sure it would be great to beat GT, and would be immensely helpful (understatement of the year) but it's simply not true that losing to the best team on the schedule 'almost assures we're headed to the depths of the Coastal'

GT has the toughest schedule of any team in the ACC. IMO they'll lose at least two ACC games, and I wouldn't argue with anyone that said they might lose three. In either case 6-2 would probably be good enough to win the Coastal. Of course its not ideal since we'd have to go on a run, but I don't see any reason why losing to Gt would be a deal breaker if that's the case.

Following the Gt game are Wake, UVA, Pitt, and Dook. All games UNC should be favored in. Even with a loss to GT, we could quite reasonably be 4-1 going into that tough stretch at the end. By which time GT will have had to play Clemson and FSU, and will be heading into a Thursday night game @VaTech, followed by Miami.

I'd take that scenario every day of the week. I don't disagree that game is extremely important, I just don't think its a "must win" to compete for the Coastal.

 

[Raising Heel]

^^^ Pretty good explanation, IMO.

What's interesting about this season for the Heels is there isn't a game on the schedule that we can immediately put in the loss column. SCjr is coming off a down season, there's a lot of parity in the Coastal, and we don't face any of the Atlantic division's best teams this year. I think a two-loss campaign in the division will be good enough to win it.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

@uncboy10 @Raising Heel

I completely understand your arguments and agree with some of it; however, the reason I list GT as a must-win is not only is it our first conference game, it's also against -- arguably -- the team with the best chance to win our division. If we lose that game, we've already lost control of our own destiny for the season! Yes, it sounds good to go through GT's schedule and speculate that they'll lose to Clemson and some other folks, but what if they don't? They didn't lose to Clemson last year, did they? What if GT gets hot and rolls through their schedule? You never know. That's why it's imperative that we win that game. We'd start out 1-0 for once, and we'd have a de-facto 2-game lead over the Jackets due to owning the tiebreaker.

There's so much at stake in that game. Yes, I know we could still win the Coastal despite losing to Tech, but our schedule is back-loaded; wouldn't it be nice to have that tie-breaker cushion going into that tough stretch of Miami - @VT - @Moo ? Because realistically, we *will* drop at least one of those.

 

[uncboy10]

Well TBH, I'm as optimistic as they come, but if GT is good enough to roll through that schedule I don't see us being the team to knock them off.

Its definitely a crucial game, I was just saying I think we could lose it and still win the Coastal. No doubt it would be way less likely though.

I dont see why we can't beat them... the option plays into our hands a bit, since it simplifies things for the D, and our offense should be able to put up big numbers on them.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Well TBH, I'm as optimistic as they come, but if GT is good enough to roll through that schedule I don't see us being the team to knock them off.

Its definitely a crucial game, I was just saying I think we could lose it and still win the Coastal. No doubt it would be way less likely though.

I dont see why we can't beat them... the option plays into our hands a bit, since it simplifies things for the D, and our offense should be able to put up big numbers on them.

I feel you, and you remind me of myself just 2-3 seasons ago with your optimism. I've already been jaded though. Thus is the life of a Carolina Football fan

 

[TarHeelNation11]

And I absolutely concur with you that we could still win the Coastal even after losing to GT, but I just don't want to play from behind right from the get-go (for the a millionth year in a row) and rely on teams ahead of us to slip up. I mean I'll take a Coastal crown any way we can get it, but I'd much rather go out and dominate and post a 7-1 than backdoor our way into it because we're the tallest midget, like in 2012.

In Fedora's tenure, we've shown we can start hot and we've shown we can finish hot, but never in the same season. Let's put those two pieces together and play solid for a full season, shall we?

 

[uncboy10]

If we go 7-1 in the ACC that should put us at 10-2 or even 11-1 if we beat USuCk. Sounds good to me.

Obviously that's not the most likely outcome, but at the same time I don't get the people that are swearing up and down there's no way we'll win more than 8 games.

Also its worth mentioning that we play Delaware before GT, which should be immensely helpful

 

[TarHeelNation11]

^ Delaware is an option team now?

 

[uncboy10]

I have no idea what offense they run, but they went 6-6 last year in 1AA. I'd like to think we'll be good enough to handle them easily enough to spend part of the practice time that week looking ahead to the option

 

[WoadBlue]

If we go 7-1 in the ACC that should put us at 10-2 or even 11-1 if we beat USuCk. Sounds good to me.

Obviously that's not the most likely outcome, but at the same time I don't get the people that are swearing up and down there's no way we'll win more than 8 games.

Also its worth mentioning that we play Delaware before GT, which should be immensely helpful

Like Phil Steele, most of us have been asuming the best of UNC football. We figure that eventually everything will work out well, that we have floundered for so long that the odds MUST be with us finally. And so we expect the best possible result.

And we have been burned repeatedly.

I doubt that this team can put it all together to win 10 and/or the division. We are stil too young and inexperienced on D, and the new D staff is just that: new. It could take the entire season before all the coaching upgrades sink in to the players. And our offfense has been far too 1 dimensional, which means we enter the season with RB and WR corps that are not nearly as experienced in making big plays as they should be.

 

[uncboy10]

Well here's the way I'm looking at it...

As bad as last year was, we were two games away from winning the coastal and beat the team that won it. One of those losses was Clemson, the second best team in the ACC, who is replaced by Wake, probably the worst team in the ACC.

The defensive numbers wouldn't have looked nearly as bad without the ND, ECU, and Clemson games (119 total points), all of which are replaced by games we should win (A&T, Delaware, Illinois). USuCk's offense is reeling so that should help our chances in that one as well.

As for the new staff, fundamentals will be a big part of it, which take time, but the simplified scheme should have an impact much more quickly. & I dont see how the D is that young. Lots of JR's and SR's in vital positions

Depth Chart: http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/north-carolina/91395

Not saying I expect us to win 10 games, but pretending that competing for the Coastal isn't a possibility is silly IMHO. Not that you did that, I'm just saying that in general

 

[JimmyinVA]

the only thing i would predict with confidence is that next year will be a winning season. a tough schedule and too many question marks to predict a great season. but with better coaching, a senior quarterback, talented running backs and receivers, improved offensive line, and a defense that won't suck it could be a great year -- who knows?

 

[uncboy10]

I don't see how this schedule could be construed as tough. 2016 sure, but this schedule is as easy as we can ever hope for. If Chizik had been hired a year or two back we'd probably be talking about a playoff run

 

[TarHeelNation11]

I don't see how this schedule could be construed as tough. 2016 sure, but this schedule is as easy as we can ever hope for. If Chizik had been hired a year or two back we'd probably be talking about a playoff run

Yeah the "tough schedule" excuse won't fly this season. Very, very manageable P5 schedule. We play 2 FCS teams + a lower-tier B1G team, a less-than-average SCar team, all while avoiding arguably the three best ACC teams (FSU, Clemson, Louisville)

 

[grillheel]

Well here's the way I'm looking at it...

As bad as last year was, we were two games away from winning the coastal and beat the team that won it. One of those losses was Clemson, the second best team in the ACC, who is replaced by Wake, probably the worst team in the ACC.

The defensive numbers wouldn't have looked nearly as bad without the ND, ECU, and Clemson games (119 total points), all of which are replaced by games we should win (A&T, Delaware, Illinois). USuCk's offense is reeling so that should help our chances in that one as well.

As for the new staff, fundamentals will be a big part of it, which take time, but the simplified scheme should have an impact much more quickly. & I dont see how the D is that young. Lots of JR's and SR's in vital positions

Depth Chart: http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/north-carolina/91395

Not saying I expect us to win 10 games, but pretending that competing for the Coastal isn't a possibility is silly IMHO. Not that you did that, I'm just saying that in general

Total points given up in the ND, ECU, Clemson games was actually 170. I am certainly hoping Chizik can do great things but am not overly optimistic. Maybe we can go from horrendous to mediocre on defense and, with a more favorable schedule, we will look better but we've got a long way to go to be good. Remember, those three teams did not wind up having very memorable seasons and we gave up plenty of points to some other teams too. I know I sound pretty pessimistic to you guys but I'm adopting a "wait and see" approach.

 

[uncboy10]

Total points given up in the ND, ECU, Clemson games was actually 170. I am certainly hoping Chizik can do great things but am not overly optimistic. Maybe we can go from horrendous to mediocre on defense and, with a more favorable schedule, we will look better but we've got a long way to go to be good. Remember, those three teams did not wind up having very memorable seasons and we gave up plenty of points to some other teams too. I know I sound pretty pessimistic to you guys but I'm adopting a "wait and see" approach.

Yikes dont know how I screwed those numbers up.

 

[uncboy10]

I'm predicting Marquise Williams to win the Heisman Trophy

 

[JimmyinVA]

Yeah the "tough schedule" excuse won't fly this season. Very, very manageable P5 schedule. We play 2 FCS teams + a lower-tier B1G team, a less-than-average SCar team, all while avoiding arguably the three best ACC teams (FSU, Clemson, Louisville)

I don't see how this schedule could be construed as tough. 2016 sure, but this schedule is as easy as we can ever hope for. If Chizik had been hired a year or two back we'd probably be talking about a playoff run

scar's 7-6 record last year is misleading. look at their losses: texas a&m, missouri (sec runner up), auburn, tennessee, clemson. you don't have to be a "less than average" team to lose those games. scar will still line up 4-star players at most positions vs. our 3-stars. and there are some other games i don't see as easy wins. ga tech is getting top 25 notice in most preseason polls. also, nc state is a preseason top 25 in the fox sports poll. they're returning a lot of starters on a team that got stronger as the season progressed last year. even our unranked opponents could be tougher than anticipated. we barely beat pitt in kenan -- i don't think they're going to be any easier at their place. and everybody's overlooking va tech. in fact, after destroying ohio state last year va tech lost more starters to injury than anybody in the country... and those guys are back. miami didn't make any preseason 25's, but espn has them at #29 -- definitely NOT an easy game. and people say dook will be an easy win next year because of graduating seniors, but they forget dook has been recruiting better the past few years. they'll bring some talent against us along with their excellent coaching and of course they will play over their heads because we'll be their bowl game. not counting dook i still see six games where our opponents will probably be favored. you might call that "manageable" depending on your definition, but it's definitely not "easy." perhaps this confidence about our schedule comes from optimism that carolina will field a much better team. i certainly share that hope.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

@JimmyinVA

I hear what you're saying, but I'm not buying it. You're trying to build up our schedule to be a murderer's row when it isn't. When I called SCar "less-than-average," I meant less than average for their standards. They're going to beat us in Charlotte, but they will also be inferior to what they've been the last 4-5 years. Lots of uncertainty on both sides of the ball for them. Yes, we play GT who will be ranked, and yes we play Miami who might be ranked if they get things figured out.

But again, make me a list of the 5 best teams in the ACC. You'd have FSU and Clemson as 1 and 2, and I'm willing to bet Louisville would be somewhere on your list too. So right there, we're avoiding the three best teams in the conference. Furthermore, GT has to play BOTH Clemson and FSU this year. We play neither.

Let me pick a few random P5 schools and let me list their schedule for you:

Alabama: Wisconsin (in TX), Middle Tenn, Ole Miss, UL-Monroe, at Georgia, Arkansas, at Texas A&M, Tenn, LSU, at Miss State, Charleston Southern, at Auburn
USC: Ark State, Idaho, Stanford, at Arizona State, Washington, at Notre Dame, Utah, at Cal, Arizona, at Colorado, at Oregon, UCLA
Texas: at Notre Dame, Rice, Cal, OK State, at TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, at Iowa State, Kansas, at West Virginia, Texas Tech, at Baylor
Louisville: Auburn (in ATL), Houston, Clemson, Samford, at Moo, at FSU, Boston College, at Wake, Syracuse, Virginia, at Pitt, at Kentucky

Meanwhile, we have Wake, Delaware, N.C. A&T, Illinois on our schedule. I will not accept the 'tough schedule' excuse. You wanna see a tough schedule? Look at NEXT year's schedule. We will have to tackle that....with a new QB. Yikes.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

And let me be clear, the schedule is VERY manageable, but that doesn't mean I'm predicting a large win total. When I say it's manageable, I'm talking in generalities. An 'easy' schedule is truly easy to a better team and is tough to a bad team. I'm just saying with respect to the entire college football landscape, our schedule is very favorable.

Can we capitalize on that? Is this year's team good enough to capitalize on that? That's what we're going to find out.

 

[uncboy10]

I still think we're gonna beat the chickens.

If we can stop their run game it'll get interesting very quickly

 

[WoadBlue]

And let me be clear, the schedule is VERY manageable, but that doesn't mean I'm predicting a large win total. When I say it's manageable, I'm talking in generalities. An 'easy' schedule is truly easy to a better team and is tough to a bad team. I'm just saying with respect to the entire college football landscape, our schedule is very favorable.

Can we capitalize on that? Is this year's team good enough to capitalize on that? That's what we're going to find out.

3 things are required to capitalize on what seems to be a favorable schedule.

1. The offense must make proper use of our RBs and WRs, which means many fewer QB runs.
2. The defense must play as if it is smarter and more experienced than that of the average high school team.
3. Special teams must be better.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

3. Special teams must be better.

With all the focus on the terrible defense and the multitude of QB runs, we sorta forget how truly awful the special teams was last year. Obviously, the FG kicking was terrible as everyone knows, but most disappointing to me, the punt return blocking was horrific! You have a potential All-American back there in White Lightning returning punts, and you can't 10 other guys who can hold a block or use speed to get down field and set up a lane for #3? To me, that was very frustrating. Switzer's return game greatly suffered because he had no blocking.

I know Fedora preaches special teams, so I'm sure this had to be grating to him. The bottom line is special teams has got to be better this year. Randomly though, we were really good at kickoff defense, if I'm remembering correctly. Just bad at everything else. Fingers crossed that Freeman figures out the in-game FG kicking thing.

 

[JimmyinVA]

i understand what you guys are saying -- not a very hard schedule compared to the rest of the country. usa today agrees, ranking us 52nd for next year's strength of schedule. but that's based on last year's winning percentages which in my opinion underestimates several teams and thus our schedule as a whole. scar's unimpressive 7-6 record includes some close losses to sec contenders -- they'll be tough in the "battle of the carolinas." ncsu was a different team toward the end of the season and didn't lose much. and most of all everybody is overlooking va tech. i don't believe their opening win at ohio statue was a fluke. they lost about a third of their starters after that, but those guys are back now. i would put our strength of schedule in the mid 30s, which means we'll have to be significantly improved to win 8 games.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

I don't think anyone's forgetting about Va Tech; it's just that this isn't early to mid 2000's Va Tech. This is Beamer-is-in-Bobby-Bowden-I-know-he's-a-legend-but-why-oh-why-won't-he-just-retire-already?-era Va Tech, who hasn't recruited a dynamic offensive player in like 7 years. Yes, their defense will always be good while Foster is there, but look at their defensive recruiting -- it's tailing off too. They're losing out to UVa on recruiting battles (well, for now, London is done) which is a new development, and they're losing recruiting battles with Carolina, which is less of a shock.

IMHO, VT is trending decidedly downward with no end in sight. If they wait too much longer to 'force' Beamer out, that job is going to lose more and more luster from the late 90's/early 2000's success, and finding a great coach is going to be harder and harder.

As for this season, specifically, I think VT will be good but certainly not great. A mediocre defense should handle their offense, and eventually a good offense can crack their defense (as long as they don't give up points on turnovers). The equalizer is the game's in Lane, and that atmosphere is always daunting.

 

[WoadBlue]

I don't think anyone's forgetting about Va Tech; it's just that this isn't early to mid 2000's Va Tech. This is Beamer-is-in-Bobby-Bowden-I-know-he's-a-legend-but-why-oh-why-won't-he-just-retire-already?-era Va Tech, who hasn't recruited a dynamic offensive player in like 7 years. Yes, their defense will always be good while Foster is there, but look at their defensive recruiting -- it's tailing off too. They're losing out to UVa on recruiting battles (well, for now, London is done) which is a new development, and they're losing recruiting battles with Carolina, which is less of a shock.

IMHO, VT is trending decidedly downward with no end in sight. If they wait too much longer to 'force' Beamer out, that job is going to lose more and more luster from the late 90's/early 2000's success, and finding a great coach is going to be harder and harder.

As for this season, specifically, I think VT will be good but certainly not great. A mediocre defense should handle their offense, and eventually a good offense can crack their defense (as long as they don't give up points on turnovers). The equalizer is the game's in Lane, and that atmosphere is always daunting.

I think that is pretty much my view of VT. Beamer is over the hill, and he will fall farther than Bobby Bowden did.

I think VT is the team to beat in the Coastal not because it is great but because UNC is a year away, Golden is not getting it done at Miami, GT now a good deal to replace, London is a doofus, Dook is Dook, and Pitt has a new HC and major talent gaps.

VT is simply the least problematic of the 7 Coastal teams.

The worst case scenartio for VT football would be for Beamer to keep hanging on while UVA fires London and makes a very good hire, at the same time that UNC recovers. That combo would seriously handicap VT.

So, best for VT's football future would be that VT win the Coastal this year and Beamer retires so that VT will be riding high when replacing him.

 

[HeelFan58]

@JimmyinVA

I hear what you're saying, but I'm not buying it. You're trying to build up our schedule to be a murderer's row when it isn't. When I called SCar "less-than-average," I meant less than average for their standards. They're going to beat us in Charlotte, but they will also be inferior to what they've been the last 4-5 years. Lots of uncertainty on both sides of the ball for them. Yes, we play GT who will be ranked, and yes we play Miami who might be ranked if they get things figured out.

But again, make me a list of the 5 best teams in the ACC. You'd have FSU and Clemson as 1 and 2, and I'm willing to bet Louisville would be somewhere on your list too. So right there, we're avoiding the three best teams in the conference. Furthermore, GT has to play BOTH Clemson and FSU this year. We play neither.

Let me pick a few random P5 schools and let me list their schedule for you:

Alabama: Wisconsin (in TX), Middle Tenn, Ole Miss, UL-Monroe, at Georgia, Arkansas, at Texas A&M, Tenn, LSU, at Miss State, Charleston Southern, at Auburn
USC: Ark State, Idaho, Stanford, at Arizona State, Washington, at Notre Dame, Utah, at Cal, Arizona, at Colorado, at Oregon, UCLA
Texas: at Notre Dame, Rice, Cal, OK State, at TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, at Iowa State, Kansas, at West Virginia, Texas Tech, at Baylor
Louisville: Auburn (in ATL), Houston, Clemson, Samford, at Moo, at FSU, Boston College, at Wake, Syracuse, Virginia, at Pitt, at Kentucky

Meanwhile, we have Wake, Delaware, N.C. A&T, Illinois on our schedule. I will not accept the 'tough schedule' excuse. You wanna see a tough schedule? Look at NEXT year's schedule. We will have to tackle that....with a new QB. Yikes.

ESPN picked SoCar as a program on the way down in an article I read earlier today..

 

[TarHeelNation11]

ESPN picked SoCar as a program on the way down in an article I read earlier today..

Who else did they say was on the way down? Just curious. What about on the up?