How many PPG will the Heels score in 2015?
- Thread starter uncboy10
- Start date
Oh there still will be, give it time.
As for your question, a few things to consider:
- last season we averaged 32.8 points per game, which ranked us 38th nationally (and 3rd in the ACC behind GT [37.9] and FSU [33.7] ).
- Given that 32.8 number, there were 7 games in which we scored above our average. Of those 7, three were losses, and of those three, two were blowouts where we were able to rack up meaningless scores to pad stats (ECU and Clemson). Of the remaining four games, one was a stat-padding game against Liberty.
- On the 2015 schedule, we do have two games where we should -- theoretically -- be able to post some big numbers -- Delaware and NC A&T. Additionally, our crossover opponent is Wake Forest (God if we lose this game....), another game where we should be able to post a decent number you'd assume...
- uncboy10's prediction of 40 ppg is a huge number. That would've been 10th best in the nation last year. I know we have an advantage in that we run a fast-paced offense, but 40 is a lot of points.
With all of that being said, I'm putting the number at 34.
There will be a modest uptick in ppg, and it will be because of a variety of factors, including a possible sub-par season as well as us utilizing the running game (that is, running backs carrying the ball, not 'Quise) which will run the clock a bit more. I think this season you're going to see instances where the coaches pick their spots to slow down our tempo (again, especially if we can get the running game going) in an attempt to bleed clock and help out our defense. I think the coaches will settle for the occasional empty but time-chewing possession in exchange for keeping the defense off the field for 4+ minutes of game time.
Based on the following three factors:
* Possibly less, but only if an incumbent loses his starting spot to a better player
** More defensive stops = more offensive possessions
- 10 returning starters*
- Improved defense**
- Relatively weak schedule
* Possibly less, but only if an incumbent loses his starting spot to a better player
** More defensive stops = more offensive possessions
It depends on how good our defense is.
We scored a lot of points last year after getting way behind and the opponent substituting down its depth chart more liberally. If our defense is significantly better and stops the opponents from scoring, then our opponents will play their starters more minutes and our offense will score less.
We scored a lot of points last year after getting way behind and the opponent substituting down its depth chart more liberally. If our defense is significantly better and stops the opponents from scoring, then our opponents will play their starters more minutes and our offense will score less.
Yeah, 40/game is definitely a lot of points. I originally said 37.5 and probably should've stuck with it but I'm optimistically looking at a few points.
The o-line should be vastly improved. The numbers last year were without a consistent running game. If you look at the best spread teams in the country, they are two dimensional. This offense just doesn't work if you cant run the ball. Everything else is in place though.
The defense will be dramatically improved. Not saying they'll be good, but you cant be that bad again. Its just not possible. They were so bad, they made bad things look... not bad. I'm not so sure that 2014 is a fair reference point for 2015.
As far as grasping opportunities goes... Man, thats a painful line of thought right there. However you cant seriously argue there is some inherent property of Carolina football that renders it impossible for them to seize opportunities... Correlation and causation.
Final point, the schedule is weak with an extra side of weak sauce, and Fedora has shown he has no problem boosting stats, especially if there are guys competing for national awards (see. Gio). Besides, even in blowout situations, Fed will likely try to get MT as many snaps as possible, and not be just looking to kill clock. I see no reason this team cant hang 60+ on Delaware, A&T, and Wake at least.
The o-line should be vastly improved. The numbers last year were without a consistent running game. If you look at the best spread teams in the country, they are two dimensional. This offense just doesn't work if you cant run the ball. Everything else is in place though.
The defense will be dramatically improved. Not saying they'll be good, but you cant be that bad again. Its just not possible. They were so bad, they made bad things look... not bad. I'm not so sure that 2014 is a fair reference point for 2015.
As far as grasping opportunities goes... Man, thats a painful line of thought right there. However you cant seriously argue there is some inherent property of Carolina football that renders it impossible for them to seize opportunities... Correlation and causation.
Final point, the schedule is weak with an extra side of weak sauce, and Fedora has shown he has no problem boosting stats, especially if there are guys competing for national awards (see. Gio). Besides, even in blowout situations, Fed will likely try to get MT as many snaps as possible, and not be just looking to kill clock. I see no reason this team cant hang 60+ on Delaware, A&T, and Wake at least.
@uncboy10 not picking on you at all, and I love your positivity, but let me know hit on a few things from your post above.
As far as causation vs correlation on UNC never grasping opportunities, obviously there's no causation because the entire roster is different every 5 years, but still, some programs just do things a certain way throughout history. And how our football program seems to do things is to fail to grasp mega opportunities. The way I see it though, no better time to buck that trend than right now!
Finally, the schedule, I agree that on its face, it's weak. We obviously avoid FSU and Clemson once again. But our first conference game is at GT, in HeelsHouseOfHorrors, Ga., so that's an L. Tech returns their very effective QB and their defense should be better than it was, so you've gotta think they're the best team in the Coastal until someone takes them down a peg. After GT though, we have an opportunity to pick up two "should-be" wins in Kenan vs. Wake Forest and Virginia. Then we have a sneaky tough game at Pitt on a Thursday night. Heinz Field might be more than 50% full for once. We've done well under Fedora on road Thursday night games though.
IF we can start 3-1 in the ACC we'll have a chance. Duke (in Kenan) is next, and Duke should be a bit worse this year after losing Crowder, but obviously that's no gimme, then another huge clash against Miami (also in Kenan) which could see two Top 25 teams go at it....when the heck was the last time we saw that in Kenan????
I'm just not so sure. I'd like to think it will be improved, but I'm going to need Coach Kap to show us something in player development before I start expecting massive improvement from year to year .He can recruit really well, but people keep praising the job he's done with the OL, and I just don't see it. This is a make or break year for him, IMO. OL has to be better, but I'm not so sure how much better it actually will be.
While I agree the defense will be better, again, I'm not sure how much better. This will take time. IMO, the best we can hope for is the defense giving up 3-6 less points per game and perhaps, by the end of the season, 7-9 points less per game. Anything better than that and we should go ahead and get a quote from a local statue builder for a life-size Chizik statue outside Kenan.
As far as causation vs correlation on UNC never grasping opportunities, obviously there's no causation because the entire roster is different every 5 years, but still, some programs just do things a certain way throughout history. And how our football program seems to do things is to fail to grasp mega opportunities. The way I see it though, no better time to buck that trend than right now!
Finally, the schedule, I agree that on its face, it's weak. We obviously avoid FSU and Clemson once again. But our first conference game is at GT, in HeelsHouseOfHorrors, Ga., so that's an L. Tech returns their very effective QB and their defense should be better than it was, so you've gotta think they're the best team in the Coastal until someone takes them down a peg. After GT though, we have an opportunity to pick up two "should-be" wins in Kenan vs. Wake Forest and Virginia. Then we have a sneaky tough game at Pitt on a Thursday night. Heinz Field might be more than 50% full for once. We've done well under Fedora on road Thursday night games though.
IF we can start 3-1 in the ACC we'll have a chance. Duke (in Kenan) is next, and Duke should be a bit worse this year after losing Crowder, but obviously that's no gimme, then another huge clash against Miami (also in Kenan) which could see two Top 25 teams go at it....when the heck was the last time we saw that in Kenan????
^^ TL;DR version to the "schedule / W's & L's" portion of my post:
If we win the ACC games we should (WF, UVA, Duke), and if we can go 3-2 or better against: @GT, @Pitt, Miami, @VT, @Moo, we have a shot at the Coastal. Everything points to us not going 6-2 in the conference though. We'll finish (8-4, 5-3). Book it.
Oh....and I didn't even include Illinois. A loss to them could be catastrophic to this season's hopes.
If we win the ACC games we should (WF, UVA, Duke), and if we can go 3-2 or better against: @GT, @Pitt, Miami, @VT, @Moo, we have a shot at the Coastal. Everything points to us not going 6-2 in the conference though. We'll finish (8-4, 5-3). Book it.
Oh....and I didn't even include Illinois. A loss to them could be catastrophic to this season's hopes.
Tend to agree with everything THN stated above. Also, it's worth noting that Wake was actually a decent defensive team last season...top 40 in yards allowed per game. I don't know how they'll shape up this season but I don't think they'll be a pushover for us.
^^ meant to address uncboy10's claim that we should put up 60 on Wake. Not only will we not put up anywhere near 60 on them, it will be a 1-possession game heading into the 4th quarter 
Not saying we'll lose, but we always lay an egg against Wake. We excused it away because Gio was out and it was Fedora's second game, but there's zero reason we should've lost at Wake in 2012. Smh.
Not saying we'll lose, but we always lay an egg against Wake. We excused it away because Gio was out and it was Fedora's second game, but there's zero reason we should've lost at Wake in 2012. Smh.
Hey brother, if everyone agreed with everyone there wouldn't be any need for message boards. I love the discussion regardless, it makes the off-season go by a lot quicker, for me at least. As far as positivity goes, that's probably just a virtue of not being old enough to know better lol
With regards to the o-line, the lack of player development is troubling no doubt. I guess I'm just hoping that the competition pushes the weaker links along, and having the full unit back and healthy with a year's experience will help. I think its worth noting that in this offense you don't necessarily need a great o-line, though obviously it doesn't hurt. These guys just need to be able to win 1v1 match-ups and know their assignments, as long as Quise makes the right read they should be okay. Obviously that might be asking a lot considering we saw considerable penetration even when teams only rushed 3.
By the end of week 3 I think we'll have a pretty good idea what to expect. A win against USuCk could be HUGE not only for the program's visibility but the attitudes in the locker room. On the other side of the coin a loss to Illinois would pretty much send it down the drain.
For me this is the year Fed puts up or shuts up. I get there are serious problems on D. But if your offense doesn't work with 10 starters returning, including a sr. QB who put up Heisman numbers the year before, then it probably isn't ever going to work.
With regards to the o-line, the lack of player development is troubling no doubt. I guess I'm just hoping that the competition pushes the weaker links along, and having the full unit back and healthy with a year's experience will help. I think its worth noting that in this offense you don't necessarily need a great o-line, though obviously it doesn't hurt. These guys just need to be able to win 1v1 match-ups and know their assignments, as long as Quise makes the right read they should be okay. Obviously that might be asking a lot considering we saw considerable penetration even when teams only rushed 3.
By the end of week 3 I think we'll have a pretty good idea what to expect. A win against USuCk could be HUGE not only for the program's visibility but the attitudes in the locker room. On the other side of the coin a loss to Illinois would pretty much send it down the drain.
For me this is the year Fed puts up or shuts up. I get there are serious problems on D. But if your offense doesn't work with 10 starters returning, including a sr. QB who put up Heisman numbers the year before, then it probably isn't ever going to work.
What's your definition of "work"? Fedora shattered almost every offensive record at UNC in his first season here.
That would more than qualify as working. I didn't mean to say it hadn't worked during Fed's tenure. Just that there is no excuse for it not to next year, barring major injuries. Sorry, poor phrasing on my part. Though the records would be expected to be broken when switching to the spread for the first time in school history.
Several times in 2014 the offense was so bad it couldn't move the ball for extended periods of time. They couldn't move it at all against the damn wusspeckers. Those strings of 3 and outs that kept the D on the field are probably the most cited, and most valid problem with the spread I see on these forums. If that is a problem again next year, some serious questions need to be raised IMO.
I think Marquise Williams might be the most undervalued player amongst fans of his own team I've ever seen. His numbers last year were incredible, but it seems like most forgot him carrying the offense by himself on multiple occasions.
The offense (or lack thereof) in the last two games was beyond bizarre. We literally looked like we had completely stopped lifting weights, watching film, and practicing after the dook game.
35 +/- 2, I hope the offense really clicks this year like they did in the middle of the season last year. I personally think they are going to put at least 35 up on USuCk
That's true it was certainly bizarre. But not just the last two games. The few occasions when the D stepped up and made consecutive stops the O seemed to always stall out. The VT game stands out in my mind in particular.
rcdb, I agree. Spurrier's teams always come out the gate slow
rcdb, I agree. Spurrier's teams always come out the gate slow
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