Officiating bias in the ACC - football study
- Thread starter TheBrickhouse
- Start date
Not so sure that we will think FSU is being shafted, not after the way the refs have "gave us the bidness" for the past five or so years. ROUGHING THE SNAPPER!!!
In fact, over on IC, a poster broke down all UNC and ACC games. Teams that played UNC had LESS calls than average against them while playing us. While we, as their opponent, had significantly more penalties called on us than the norm. We aren't talking minute changes, but multiple calls ( both for and against ) and yardage.
UNC has been the ACC's whipping boy for years now.
BTW, the above breakdown only covered that the disparity ONLY occurred in games that were called by ACC refs. In the UNC games called by non ACC refs, UNC and our opponent "regressed to mean". Meaning UNC had far less calls go against us, and our opponents had more calls go against them.
Isn't about FSU, specifically. It is about all ACC football officiating from 2005-2012. The data suggest that the scenario you raise is more likely when UNC is the favorite.
This study is rather suspect. To be more accurate, the conclusions are suspect. The key takeaway from the story is that ACC referees favored the underdogs, and ACC referees favored the home teams. Well, put them together, and you get the answer. What's making the difference is that the underdogs are being favored, typically because they are playing at home.
Sports Illustrated published a similar study several years ago, which studied multiple sports in multiple countries. They found that referee bias was primarily influenced by the crowd, meaning the home team had the advantage. Circling back to the ACC story, that makes perfect sense. The home teams get favorable calls. When the underdogs are at home, they have bigger crowds, which are inducing the bias effect from the referees. The reason this is pronounced for the ACC is because a lot of ACC schools don't have the consistent attendance of other leagues (like the SEC for example). They get much bigger crowds for big opponents than regular games. Contrast that to average SEC teams like Arkansas or South Carolina, which get more consistent attendance for all their games. That would cause the underdog bias to be mitigated, and the home field bias to be more prominent.
Sports Illustrated published a similar study several years ago, which studied multiple sports in multiple countries. They found that referee bias was primarily influenced by the crowd, meaning the home team had the advantage. Circling back to the ACC story, that makes perfect sense. The home teams get favorable calls. When the underdogs are at home, they have bigger crowds, which are inducing the bias effect from the referees. The reason this is pronounced for the ACC is because a lot of ACC schools don't have the consistent attendance of other leagues (like the SEC for example). They get much bigger crowds for big opponents than regular games. Contrast that to average SEC teams like Arkansas or South Carolina, which get more consistent attendance for all their games. That would cause the underdog bias to be mitigated, and the home field bias to be more prominent.
The home advantage effect and underdog effect are isolated and reported as marginal influences on penalty yards. It is modeled as basic multiple regression, so your suspect is rather suspect.
Did you actually read the paper at the end of the article? It was vetted and reviewed by some of the top sports analytics minds in the world.
I have no doubt that UNC has been screwed big time by officiating the last few years and I think it is on purpose. The Duke game the year before was just given away by the refs missing well over 150 yards in penalties on Duke or making suspect calls against UNC. It is bad officiating, absolutely, but there is some intent to it. The ACC has no integrity period.
Where did you read that it was a conspiracy? Most biases are subtle and unconscious, as these probably are.
Marginal as in "above and beyond, all else equal", not marginal as in "small and insignificant". These biases could be 30-40 yards per game in the ACC, which could be the difference between winning and losing.
For every lamebrained study you could link, it could be countered with lamerbrained examples of climate deniers, evolution deniers, and vaccine haters. Personally, I believe the data more than someone who inexplicably doesn't believe the numbers.
The ncaa hates us. They single us out for these "investigations", conspire to seed us in the hardest bracket possible in the bball tourney, refuse to give us late afternoon fb games, command the refs and officials to treat us unfairly, and tell the announcers to trash us as much as possible. They have made it their mission statement to make unc athletics as mediocre as possible.
I dont know why we even try
Posted from Rivals Mobile
I dont know why we even try
Posted from Rivals Mobile
