ADVERTISEMENT

Will Carolina Have a 1000-yard runner and/or receiver? If so, who?

TarHeelNation11

Hall of Famer
Mar 9, 2007
35,722
22,247
113
Lowell, NC
Good discussions of late guys
happy0030.r191677.gif


For rushing yards, Gio was the last Heel to rush for 1,000 yards. Because he was NFL-good, he did it back to back in 2011 and 2012 (1253 and 1228, respectively). Before Gio, it's been awhile since a Heel has done it. From 2004 to Gio in 2011, no one got closer than 866 yards in a season. 2004 is as far back as ESPN's stats go and I'm too lazy to look further.

As far as receiving:

Since 2004, it has happened two times:

2008: Hakeem Nicks (1222) -- he was pretty good, newsflash. He also just missed it the season before
2011: Dwight Jones (1196) -- gonna be honest, had no clue he went for 1000+. Also just missed it season before.

Ebron missed it by 27 yards in 2013.

What say you, Carolina fans?
 
IF, and I say if the o-line improves!! I think TJ can do it rushing and Mack Hollins will do it receiving.
 
Not this season.

Gio got there because he was head-and-shoulders better than our other options at RB (no offense to Ryan Houston, AJ Blue, or Romar Morris). That meant he got the bulk of the carries. In 2011 he got about two-thirds of all RB carries. In 2012 he only got about 52% of the RB carries because he missed two games and we had some more viable backups. If you look back at Fedora's offenses you see that he likes a tailback-by-committee approach to running the ball. Our group of RBs is a legit four deep, possibly five deep depending on Francis' injury. There's no way anyone will get enough carries to break the 1,000-yard mark unless there is an unspeakable rash of injuries IMO.

WR is a bit more intriguing. I think Quinshad Davis is the kind of receiver who has the potential to do it, but he's in a similar situation at the RBs where there are plenty of other good receivers clamoring for catches as well. You know Switzer is going to get his shots. Switz actually led the team in receptions and yards last season (which indicates we didn't throw down field enough IMHO). Bug Howard and Mack Hollins will get a few looks, too. The real question to me is whether the freshmen -- Devin Perry (RS) and Juval Mollette -- come in and play well enough to vulture some receptions from Davis. If not, and we stretch the field the way we should, then Davis could be the guy.
 
I think Quinshad Davis gets it.

We won't have a 1000 yard rusher unless Trubisky is QB- if so, look for Logan to do it.
 
Based on what we know today and that being what we should expect tomorrow . . . we won't have either a RB or WR reaching those totals. Expect quite a few RB's & WR's to have 250 - 600 yards and by that I mean 2 or 3 of each. Our best bet for getting close is either a RB or WR garnering 700 - 900 yards combined rushing & receiving (based on what we know today) with Logan or Switzer having the best shot.
 
Unlikely but I think Logan and Hood could go for 1500 combined.
 
It's a "no" to both. As RH correctly cited, too many weapons to be so dependent on one RB and one WR.

But I bet we'll have three 500 yard rushers and at least three 500 yard receivers.
 
Gio also ran behind a Oline that was light years ahead of our current Oline. That's had three or four NFLers on it. So until the Big Ugliess improve, it doesn't matter who's the QB or RB at that point. So, i'll take Logan but watch out for Williams kids.
 
Originally posted by Raising Heel:

Switz actually led the team in receptions and yards last season (which indicates we didn't throw down field enough IMHO).
Agreed for sure. I mean, yes, a chunk of his yardage came from long TD catches, but in general, he was our safety valve too often. We did not stretch the field vertically at all in several games last season (all of which we lost) which killed our offense. It allowed the defensive secondary and linebackers to creep forward which not only stuffed our quick-hitting short passing game; it also probably hampered our running game as well, with so many defensive players in the box.

This season, we need to stretch the field vertically in the first quarter of each game to keep the defense honest. We have massive WR's in Q. Davis and Bug Howard that the QB should be able to find with relative ease on "throw it up and let 'em go get it" passes.

Originally posted by UNC71-00:
I think Quinshad Davis gets it.

We won't have a 1000 yard rusher unless Trubisky is QB- if so, look for Logan to do it.
To my point above, I don't think Davis catches the ball far enough down field to get 1,000. He'd need to catch it a bunch of times like he did his freshman year to get that kind of yardage. He's not the 50 yards-down-the-field catch type of WR. He's more of a 10-25 yard catch type of guy.

I think Mack Hollins could have a shot. He's shown to be a Jheranie Boyd-esque over-the-top deep ball threat. Switzer too. Our QB will just need to deliver an accurate ball when those two get open over the top. Something the QB failed to do on an unacceptable number of occasions last season, IMO.
 
We don't go vertical because Williams doesn't throw a very good deep ball. He missed Switzer many times last year and as THN pointed out, Davis is more of the possession receiver. Hollins is indeed the best deep ball receiver we have but he doesn't get enough balls thrown his way.

I don't think we have to be able to throw the deep ball to be successful. We need to do what Williams is capable of doing. If we try to force the deep balls and we're unsuccessful, we're looking at turnovers and possibly damaging Williams' confidence. He strikes me as the type of player that needs affirmation and validation. Call the plays that the personnel can handle. For big plays, we'll have to rely on the rare deep ball, Switzer with the tunnel screens and then otherwise methodically move the chains. I kind of like that anyway because it's a ball control tactic. And with our defense still in question, the less time they're on the field, the better. But the key - the absolute key - is being better on first down. We cannot get into 3rd and longs.
 
Originally posted by gunslingerdick:
We don't go vertical because Williams doesn't throw a very good deep ball. He missed Switzer many times last year and as THN pointed out, Davis is more of the possession receiver. Hollins is indeed the best deep ball receiver we have but he doesn't get enough balls thrown his way.

I don't think we have to be able to throw the deep ball to be successful. We need to do what Williams is capable of doing. If we try to force the deep balls and we're unsuccessful, we're looking at turnovers and possibly damaging Williams' confidence. He strikes me as the type of player that needs affirmation and validation. Call the plays that the personnel can handle. For big plays, we'll have to rely on the rare deep ball, Switzer with the tunnel screens and then otherwise methodically move the chains. I kind of like that anyway because it's a ball control tactic. And with our defense still in question, the less time they're on the field, the better. But the key - the absolute key - is being better on first down. We cannot get into 3rd and longs.
Consistently getting 3 or more yards on 1st down means we need to have RBs carrying the ball and a sideline to sideline passing game.
 
In many games last year we had too many no gains , gains of 2 yards or less or losses on 1st down. We need to avoid that this year with some semblance of a running game.
 
Originally posted by gunslingerdick:
We don't go vertical because Williams doesn't throw a very good deep ball. He missed Switzer many times last year and as THN pointed out, Davis is more of the possession receiver. Hollins is indeed the best deep ball receiver we have but he doesn't get enough balls thrown his way.

I don't think we have to be able to throw the deep ball to be successful. We need to do what Williams is capable of doing. If we try to force the deep balls and we're unsuccessful, we're looking at turnovers and possibly damaging Williams' confidence. He strikes me as the type of player that needs affirmation and validation. Call the plays that the personnel can handle. For big plays, we'll have to rely on the rare deep ball, Switzer with the tunnel screens and then otherwise methodically move the chains. I kind of like that anyway because it's a ball control tactic. And with our defense still in question, the less time they're on the field, the better. But the key - the absolute key - is being better on first down. We cannot get into 3rd and longs.
re: Marquise being a confidence-based player, I tend to agree. He's inconsistent and his valleys are quite low, while his peaks are quite high and darn near unguardable (GT game & Pitt game come to mind for the latter).

re: keeping the ball as much as possible -- I agree, but key factors work against us being able to do so. For one, our pace of play makes it hard to sustain a long drive (long meaning game time running off the clock). Another thing I noticed last season is, offensively, we often times zig'd when we should have zag'd so to speak. It just seems like we couldn't figure out the right time to run on 1st down versus when to throw on 1st down. Often times, we'd opt to throw on first down and either get an incompletion, a 1-yard gain on a quick out, or even a negative play on a sack or pass behind the line that was snubbed out. Quickly, it's 2nd and 9, 10, or 11, and we've got to throw on 2nd and 3rd down. It made us very predictable and easier to defend. So, IMO, first down is even more important than us than for most teams, simply due to the pace we play at and how badly we need to keep our defense off the field.
 
Originally posted by WoadBlue:

Originally posted by gunslingerdick:
We don't go vertical because Williams doesn't throw a very good deep ball. He missed Switzer many times last year and as THN pointed out, Davis is more of the possession receiver. Hollins is indeed the best deep ball receiver we have but he doesn't get enough balls thrown his way.

I don't think we have to be able to throw the deep ball to be successful. We need to do what Williams is capable of doing. If we try to force the deep balls and we're unsuccessful, we're looking at turnovers and possibly damaging Williams' confidence. He strikes me as the type of player that needs affirmation and validation. Call the plays that the personnel can handle. For big plays, we'll have to rely on the rare deep ball, Switzer with the tunnel screens and then otherwise methodically move the chains. I kind of like that anyway because it's a ball control tactic. And with our defense still in question, the less time they're on the field, the better. But the key - the absolute key - is being better on first down. We cannot get into 3rd and longs.
Consistently getting 3 or more yards on 1st down means we need to have RBs carrying the ball and a sideline to sideline passing game.
. . . and without a vertical passing game you will get 8 in the box or 7 with the LB's keying on the run. None is good for a running game unless your OL can dominate the line of scrimmage and your RB's are excellent at picking the holes.
 
Since we're talking about 1st downs, here's how the ACC fared last season (h/t David Hale of ESPN). Heels were actually tied for 5th. What's interesting was how ineffectual UNC was on 1st down runs. Seems to support the notion that our run blocking wasn't very good.


CCqg8PxUUAIfmD4.png:large
 
Switzer can definitely do it but he has to get more downfield routes. As many have already said, most of his yardage came after the catch because he was the safety valve. If the Heels could send him downfield and use the RB's as the safety valve, this young man definitely has the elusiveness and speed to chunk off yards at an alarming rate.
 
I still think Logan could have a legitimate chance at 1,000. He would need to go for some big games (150 yards or so) against Delaware and NC A&T) to get the momentum rolling, but I think he could do it, even with the way we divvy up carries to multiple backs.

Hard for me to believe a receiver will get 1000 yards though, unless our passing game significantly improves. But again, Switzer or Hollins could do it, and again it would require huge yardage games in our tuneup games against Delaware and NC A&T. Furthermore, in those games, if all goes well, we will pull starters fairly early on, so Switzer/Hollins/Logan would need to get a big chunk of their yardage on a home run play or two early in the game because they won't play long enough -- in all likelihood -- to compile yardage in a nickel and dime fashion.
 
Originally posted by TarHeelNation11:
^ you consider 4.48 yards on first down ineffectual??
Relative to what other conference teams averaged, yes.

I've had a hard time getting my head around those numbers. In a vacuum 4.48 yards on every first-down carry is obviously a solid number. But you have to remember that's the average, meaning we may have had an 8-yard carry on one first down and a 1-yard carry on the next first down, for example. The relatively low number reflects our inconsistency running the ball last year. And if I recall correctly, we had a pitiful percentage of "big" runs, i.e. runs of 20+ yards (12+ yards, or whatever metric you want to use).
 
Relative to what other conference teams averaged, yes.

I've had a hard time getting my head around those numbers. In a vacuum 4.48 yards on every first-down carry is obviously a solid number. But you have to remember that's the average, meaning we may have had an 8-yard carry on one first down and a 1-yard carry on the next first down, for example. The relatively low number reflects our inconsistency running the ball last year. And if I recall correctly, we had a pitiful percentage of "big" runs, i.e. runs of 20+ yards (12+ yards, or whatever metric you want to use).
Hmm, yeah it's hard for me to wrap my head around that stat too. You're right that, on its face, 4.48 yards on first down seems dang good.

I just feel like, overall, stats are a bit misleading with this offense given two things: 1). the amount of plays we run, which of course benefits our total yards, total offense, etc., and 2). how awful our defense was, which unfairly magnified every mistake our offense made
 
As far as 1) is concerned, you can never go wrong with the yards per play stats, including yards per carry and yards per attempt. It's the tempo-adjusted version that makes comparison of offenses/defenses more even.

Or if you really want to nerd out, go look at a site like Football Outsiders. They exclude garbage-time plays (trying to kill clock, for example) and make some adjustments for the red zone as well, I believe. Their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics are always interesting. Well, to me anyway. :cool:
 
I think we didn't go vertical because we needed to play more ball control I.e shorter passes in order to keep our defense of the field.

I think we will be a much different offence this year if our D can produce a few more 3 and outs.

I agree with a few others in that we have too many weapons to feature feature one or two players.

I think we really need to punish more people early with the run game.
 
Hmm, yeah it's hard for me to wrap my head around that stat too. You're right that, on its face, 4.48 yards on first down seems dang good.

I just feel like, overall, stats are a bit misleading with this offense given two things: 1). the amount of plays we run, which of course benefits our total yards, total offense, etc., and 2). how awful our defense was, which unfairly magnified every mistake our offense made

Remember there's lies, and damn lies, and then there's statistics.
 
ADVERTISEMENT