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2024 Season Review: Team Offense

JimmyNaismith

All-American
Nov 7, 2021
2,274
2,570
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The 2024 team was outstanding, offensively, and nearly ranks as the best offensive team in the UNC program's history. Averaging 0.986 points per possession (Smith Method), it was well above the program average of 0.93. Here is how this team ranks since the advent of the 3-point shot:
  1. 1987 (1.011)
  2. 1995 (1.010)
  3. 1998 (1.005)
  4. 2009 (0.997)
  5. 2016 (0.989)
  6. 2005 (0.987)
  7. 2024 (0.986)
  8. 2007 (0.981)
  9. 2008 (0.975)
  10. 1996 (0.970)
UNC-Basketball-Efficiency-1987-2024.png

How did this team do it? Their 3-point shooting (35.8%) was right at the program average since 1996 (35.7%). The two-point shooting (50.1%) was a percent below average (51.1%). The real differences were that the team was far below on Percent Loss of Ball (12.1%) than the program average (16.0%). As well, they did really well at the free throw line (76%), compared to the program's average (70%). For the second season in a row, they frequented the line much more frequently than average with 0.274 FTAs/possession. That's about 1 standard deviation above the program average of 0.259.

This team continued to feast on the 3-point line. It took 36.1% of its shot attempts from behind the line, as opposed to the program average of 28.5%. On possessions where they took a 3-point shot, they scored 1.08 points per possession whereas possessions ending with a shot attempt inside the arc resulted in only 1.00 points per possession. If the powers that be over there are paying attention, we will greatly increase the number of 3s attempted next season, because the return from behind the arc was 8% higher than it was shooting inside the arc; with the program's 2nd all-time leading scorer, Armando Bacot, down low. (granted he played in 169 games, but he still was a reliable force down low).

MBB24_pppUNC.png


As the graph shows, this team scored above Dean Smith's offensive goal much of the time, and there wasn't a detectable trend upward or downward the the offense's performance. They ended the season strong, with consistent excellent offense for the entire final month. There was a lull just after the Charleston Southern game which coincided with the lull in opponents' performances. That was when the media assigned the reputation of it being a defensive team, but in fact, this team's accomplishments came from its offense and from rebounding.

This program will lose quite a few players again this season, so like we did this season, we will have to wait until around mid December before we really know what Coach Davis has assembled. Because all of his teams have scored points per possession considerably higher than the historic average, I am confident that offense will likely not be a huge concern with next year's team.
 
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