90

[gary-7]

OK folks, it's regular season eve, and being a math guy here are a couple of magic numbers that will interesting to watch for. If we look back at the 3 UNC national championship teams in the shot-clock era, a couple of team numbers jump out at ya, and loom as benchmark goals for this season's team.

90
Although there are more sophisticated metrics, as simple as it sounds for a variety of reasons a great barometer of UNC's success is points per game (PPG). All 3 of those teams lit up the scoreboard.
2008-9 89.8 PPG
2004-5 88.0 PPG
1992-3 86.1 PPG* *45 second shot-clock
Now we've got a 30 second clock. If things are running optimally 90 should be our season benchmark.
(Our last two season's teams averaged below 80! That ain't gonna get it in Roy's system.)

18
While we were in upper the echelons of scoring in those championship seasons, we're never gonna be ranked well defensively in PPG, simply because we score early in possessions. Doesn't matter. What matters more is point differential. Check this out:
2008-9 17.8
2004-5 17.7
1992-3 17.8
Pretty remarkable, huh?

No accident Roy is pushing for more tempo this season, and before MP's injury I was confident we were gonna have the lineup and rotation to reach these goals. JB/MP/JJ/BL/KM? To credit a buddy's assessment, "How you s'posed to guard that?" Still there's no reason why we can't push tempo without Marcus. It will be interesting to watch the dynamic play out.

Obviously each game is different --- some close, some blowouts, fast teams, slow teams --- but over the season these are worthy thresholds to watch.

Go Heels!

 

[GoNtheDistance]

well done Gary

 

[dadika13]

Man, this is good stuff Gary.

That's the thing I took out of our last 2 titles, we outran everyone. If you tried to slow it down we forced the tempo and if you tried to run with us we did it better.

 

[gary-7]

Man, this is good stuff Gary.

That's the thing I took out of our last 2 titles, we outran everyone. If you tried to slow it down we forced the tempo and if you tried to run with us we did it better.

Exactly. And check this out:
Our national PPG ranks in those years
2008-9 Off. PPG - 2nd / Def. PPG - 275th
2004-5 Off. PPG - 1st / Def. PPG - 217th
1992-3 Off. PPG - 15th / Def. PPG - 55th
...but it doesn't mean we were a bad defensive team in any of those years (we were really good in 93 in fact), it simply means our scoring rate creates more possessions for the opponents. Obviously more sophisticated efficiency metrics account for that somewhat, but again, in our system. raw offensive scoring rate and point differential are very telling stats.
Dean always said that the defense creates transition which is the key to our offense. If we're outrunnin' em and outscorin' em that usually means everything is working right...

 

[UNC Blue Hup]

Thank you Gary!

 

[dadika13]

Exactly. And check this out:
Our national PPG ranks in those years
2008-9 Off. PPG - 2nd / Def. PPG - 275th
2004-5 Off. PPG - 1st / Def. PPG - 217th
1992-3 Off. PPG - 15th / Def. PPG - 55th
...but it doesn't mean we were a bad defensive team in any of those years (we were really good in 93 in fact), it simply means our scoring rate creates more possessions for the opponents. Obviously more sophisticated efficiency metrics account for that somewhat, but again, in our system. raw offensive scoring rate and point differential are very telling stats.
Dean always said that the defense creates transition which is the key to our offense. If we're outrunnin' em and outscorin' em that usually means everything is working right...

Definitely.

And I think the 30 second shot clock is even another thing that will work in our favor this year. We're used to getting our shot inside of that time frame whereas half court style offenses will need to force tempo and play to something that isn't their strength.

P.S. Speaking of tempo, Roy compared Seventh to Ty Lawson in terms of speed getting the ball up the court. That has me ridiculously excited for the next few years. There were few things more fun than watching Ty blow by 5 defenders on his way up the court.

 

[gary-7]

Definitely.

And I think the 30 second shot clock is even another thing that will work in our favor this year. We're used to getting our shot inside of that time frame whereas half court style offenses will need to force tempo and play to something that isn't their strength.

P.S. Speaking of tempo, Roy compared Seventh to Ty Lawson in terms of speed getting the ball up the court. That has me ridiculously excited for the next few years. There were few things more fun than watching Ty blow by 5 defenders on his way up the court.

Yeah.... I saw that. While 7th is an explosive athlete, he is not a natural PG by any stretch of the imagination. He has ambitions there but struggled mightily at it this summer and it actually hurt his rankings.
BUT, good news is he is very dangerous in transition. Honestly, the better player comparison is Dexter Strickland (pre-injury) with better offensive chops. Folks forget that Dex could absolutely fly, both speed-wise and vertically when he came in, and was a good defender. He was also a combo who was not all that comfortable at Point. Unfortunately he never developed a consistent enough perimeter game to maximize his abilities. 7th's advantage is that he comes in with better scoring chops, and if Hubert can help him get more consistent with his stroke he has the potential to light up the scoreboard.
Here's where the next class gets interesting: Jalek is a much more natural PG than 7th, yet his game might be even better suited for off the ball as well. Will Roy bring in a pure PG in '17? (I love me some Matt Coleman), or will he wait and let these guys get some minutes at the 1 behind JB, and then go all-in on an '18 kid to begin the transition following the Joel Berry era?
Either way, pretty good problems to have.

 

[goheels653]

Yeah.... I saw that. While 7th is an explosive athlete, he is not a natural PG by any stretch of the imagination. He has ambitions there but struggled mightily at it this summer and it actually hurt his rankings.
BUT, good news is he is very dangerous in transition. Honestly, the better player comparison is Dexter Strickland (pre-injury) with better offensive chops. Folks forget that Dex could absolutely fly, both speed-wise and vertically when he came in, and was a good defender. He was also a combo who was not all that comfortable at Point. Unfortunately he never developed a consistent enough perimeter game to maximize his abilities. 7th's advantage is that he comes in with better scoring chops, and if Hubert can help him get more consistent with his stroke he has the potential to light up the scoreboard.
Here's where the next class gets interesting: Jalek is a much more natural PG than 7th, yet his game might be even better suited for off the ball as well. Will Roy bring in a pure PG in '17? (I love me some Matt Coleman), or will he wait and let these guys get some minutes at the 1 behind JB, and then go all-in on an '18 kid to begin the transition following the Joel Berry era?
Either way, pretty good problems to have.

I don't think he'll wait on a point guard ever again. Roy will never be too deep at that position. I hope he's all over Coleman.