A giant step... backwards

[gary-7]

I started keeping stats to keep my head from exploding because of what I was seeing 8 weeks ago. Well, tonight that stopped working. I confess, I shattered my pen at half time, so I said "screw it". Most of the stats you need for this one will be in the minutes column in the box score anyway.

The Ga Tech game was fool's gold and, yeah, I knew it. That was mostly an emotional bang. Tonight that "delicate balance" I posted about last week flipped over and fell off the danged beam.

In the first half tonight the old dysfunction reared its ugly head again early and it was taken advantage of by State's game plan. Credit to that. They knew if they could keep us out of transition we're not a scary half-court team with the lineup we put on the floor, so they took their breaks when they got them and otherwise just worked the shot clock. On offense we fell into their trap with "Bad-JP" returning to his old habits of trying to be a Point Guard, not passing ahead and gumming up the offense. The result was 18 points of ugliness. We only got back in the game in the second half by stepping up the D and getting out in transition, but when we had to have a good half-court possession it was still a total crap shoot.

Just when it looked like Roy was on his way to making some needed adjustments --- and granted some things intervened --- tonight the rotation looked pretty much like it did 8 weeks ago (minus Theo, of course). If that does not fundamentally change this is not likely to get any better and this team will be fortunate to make it out of an NCAA sub-Regional.

Sorry for the gloom --- that's not usually like me --- but I know for whence I see. Right about now I wish I didn't...

This post was edited on 2/24 11:41 PM by gary-7

 

[Tru Blu Tar Heel]

Usually by this point in the season (really two weeks ago actually), Roy has tightened his rotation to NO MORE than 8 guys and yet we are still going 10 deep. Really, there's no reason that Joel James or Jackson Simmons should be seeing more than spot minutes for foul trouble. And looking at the box score, I just can't wrap my head around why Britt and Berry only saw 15 minutes TOGETHER while Tokoto played 35 minutes. Berry and Britt need to be WELL over 10 minutes a game (Berry truthfully probably need to be closer to 20).

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Originally posted by Tru Blu Tar Heel:
Usually by this point in the season (really two weeks ago actually), Roy has tightened his rotation to NO MORE than 8 guys and yet we are still going 10 deep. Really, there's no reason that Joel James or Jackson Simmons should be seeing more than spot minutes for foul trouble. And looking at the box score, I just can't wrap my head around why Britt and Berry only saw 15 minutes TOGETHER while Tokoto played 35 minutes. Berry and Britt need to be WELL over 10 minutes a game (Berry truthfully probably need to be closer to 20).

More than likely that was the plan, but Berry was a walking turnover last night. He was yanked at least 2 times for poor defense and or turnovers.

There just has to be a collective effort EVERY GAME. And we aren't seeing it. This team just ins't putting together strings of games. They played fantastic against Dook and GT, so an egg was bound to be laid at some point. That's just this team's personality unfortunately.

They will rebound and beat Miami and GT. Then there will be another tight game with Dook, likely followed by a first round ACC tournament loss.

 

[coryfly]

Britt and Berry were neither very good last night. That is the nice way to say it. You really could hardly afford to have either on the court. Of course, they weren't the only ones.

 

[BillyL]

There are no 'saviors' on the roster that will make this team into a FF squad, there simply are no Ty Lawsons, Phil Fords or Ray Feltons that will miraculously alter or improve the remaining player's games. Make any adjustment you want to, and the results will be the pretty much the same.

We finally got some decent production from Justin tonight, but, then we suffer a colossal collapse in point production from Brice, JP and Marcus on 5 of 20 shooting from the field. A 'changing of the guard', so to speak, wouldn't have helped what we got from those 3 last night

From the bench, we got even less, Hicks, Britt and Berry were basically non factors . . though Isaiah was part of the line-up that made that 4 minute turnaround in the second half and put us back in a position to at least contend.

 

[Tigertown_a_Rick]

Originally posted by gary-7:
I started keeping stats to keep my head from exploding because of what I was seeing 8 weeks ago. Well, tonight that stopped working. I confess, I shattered my pen at half time, so I said "screw it". Most of the stats you need for this one will be in the minutes column in the box score anyway.

The Ga Tech game was fool's gold and, yeah, I knew it. That was mostly an emotional bang. Tonight that "delicate balance" I posted about last week flipped over and fell off the danged beam.

In the first half tonight the old dysfunction reared its ugly head again early and it was taken advantage of by State's game plan. Credit to that. They knew if they could keep us out of transition we're not a scary half-court team with the lineup we put on the floor, so they took their breaks when they got them and otherwise just worked the shot clock. On offense we fell into their trap with "Bad-JP" returning to his old habits of trying to be a Point Guard, not passing ahead and gumming up the offense. The result was 18 points of ugliness. We only got back in the game in the second half by stepping up the D and getting out in transition, but when we had to have a good half-court possession it was still a total crap shoot.

Just when it looked like Roy was on his way to making some needed adjustments --- and granted some things intervened --- tonight the rotation looked pretty much like it did 8 weeks ago (minus Theo, of course). If that does not fundamentally change this is not likely to get any better and this team will be fortunate to make it out of an NCAA sub-Regional.

Sorry for the gloom --- that's not usually like me --- but I know for whence I see. Right about now I wish I didn't...

This post was edited on 2/24 11:41 PM by gary-7

Gary, a lot of us Tarheel fans always appreciate your knowledge and breakdown of the games, but I have to agree with you that it's downright frustrating to watch this team, and here's just a few things that I see:

1). We really have NO inside presence when we play against bigger opponents, and it's as if we don't have anybody on this team who knows how to use a ball or head fake when they are close to the basket?.....It's like we have a bunch of small forwards or guards playing in the post and at the power forward position....Yeah, we're soft, and that was clearly evident last night....And I can't for the life of me understand why our inside guys try to finess every single shot instead of just going hard to the rim....Who cares about the contact?.....Expect it, but finish the %#@& play....It's as if our players are more worried about the contact than they are about making the %#@& shot?...

2).When is Nate Britt, Berry and Paige going to start taking better care of the basketball, settle this team down, and go get the %#@% ball away from players who should not be dribbling around and stagnating the offensive flow?....

3). I can't remember a Carolina team off the top of my head that appears devoid of any leadership?....Someone....Anyone, please step up, and show some %#@& leadership!

I've always been the type of Carolina fan who doesn't dwell on a lost or two, but this team just seems to have thrown in the towel, and appears to be digressing instead of improving and getting any better, which is not the trend that you want, or need heading into the end of the regular season?....Hope I'm wrong, but I have to agree at this point that things are not going to get any better with this team because this team seems to have a ceiling, and have to agree that it looks as though this team has already reached that ceiling?......And that hard to admit as a longtime Tarheel fan!

 

[SeaHawk98]

Getting crushed at Pitt, losing huge lead at Duke and looking like crap at home vs. State. This season is practically over, I don't see how this team can right the ship. Future looks rather bleak until UNC gets some elite players in.

 

[gunslingerdick]

Originally posted by SeaHawk98:

Getting crushed at Pitt, losing huge lead at Duke and looking like crap at home vs. State. This season is practically over, I don't see how this team can right the ship. Future looks rather bleak until UNC gets some elite players in.

Sadly, this is a +1.

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by Tigertown@Rick:
Gary, a lot of us Tarheel fans always appreciate your knowledge and breakdown of the games, but I have to agree with you that it's downright frustrating to watch this team, and here's just a few things that I see:

1). We really have NO inside presence when we play against bigger opponents, and it's as if we don't have anybody on this team who knows how to use a ball or head fake when they are close to the basket?.....It's like we have a bunch of small forwards or guards playing in the post and at the power forward position....Yeah, we're soft, and that was clearly evident last night....And I can't for the life of me understand why our inside guys try to finess every single shot instead of just going hard to the rim....Who cares about the contact?.....Expect it, but finish the %#@& play....It's as if our players are more worried about the contact than they are about making the %#@& shot?...

2).When is Nate Britt, Berry and Paige going to start taking better care of the basketball, settle this team down, and go get the %#@% ball away from players who should not be dribbling around and stagnating the offensive flow?....

3). I can't remember a Carolina team off the top of my head that appears devoid of any leadership?....Someone....Anyone, please step up, and show some %#@& leadership!

I've always been the type of Carolina fan who doesn't dwell on a lost or two, but this team just seems to have thrown in the towel, and appears to be digressing instead of improving and getting any better, which is not the trend that you want, or need heading into the end of the regular season?....Hope I'm wrong, but I have to agree at this point that things are not going to get any better with this team because this team seems to have a ceiling, and have to agree that it looks as though this team has already reached that ceiling?......And that hard to admit as a longtime Tarheel fan!

I hear ya. And I'm going to respond here just to add a couple of things concerning some of the other posts above.

- You're absolutely right, we indeed sometimes struggle against large semi-skilled bruisers up front. Roy was correct in his presser: You can't finesse these guys on the block, you give em a pump fake and then take it through em if you have to.

- I'm going to take issue with the easy blame for turnovers. Last night, classic example, Berry comes in the first time (WAY too late in the half, BTW), and immediately Britt makes himself inaccessible (SMDH) which leads to Tokoto causing a turnover by flashing to the point instead of screening immediately, and that gets charged to Berry.

- Speaking of JP, his play is critical. He can be either a nightmare for opponents (as he often was at dook), or a nightmare for us (see last night's first half). I've said this a zillion times but it's still true: JP is a helluva 3-man but he's sugar-in-the-gas-tank when he tries to play Guard. This starting lineup just encourages the latter, and he spent most of last night doing just that. Now... on that note: Why was he so effective at dook? Easy. We spent most of that game in two-Guard sets. JP stayed mostly inside the arc and attacked and cleaned up at the rim. It also helped that Berry spent most of the night at Point, which creates the spacing that is so critical.

- Bottom line is this: Staying with the big lineup, especially the way Roy overdid it last night is "coaching not to lose", which will get us about as far as, oh, an NCAA Sub-Regional. One win, maybe two, then buh-bye. The difference between a talented-but-underachieving team and a championship contender is often something as subtle as a tweak in roles, combinations and minutes. Make the right tweak and show confidence in it and the players involved? Then the results can be night-and-day better. If what I heard was true --- that the tweak was about to be made Saturday --- then having that derailed by a damned stomach virus will be especially hard to swallow.... and even harder to swallow if Roy balks now and keeps coaching "not to lose". We have 3 games and the ACC Tourney to try and get it right. I just hope it ain't too late...

 

[UNC&ME]

state did not play well either...across the board quality CBB lacking...scores of game are close but doesn;t mean well played games

 

[HeelFan58]

The GT and Miami games scare the hell out of me. GT will have plenty of motivation after the beating we gave them in Chapel Hill and they have played some tough teams close. Miami's guards could be a real headache they have played great at times and been a non-factor at other times. I don't even want to think about dook until those games are over.

 

[mahncpa1]

We desperately need leadership on the floor. Paige was THE leader of the team last year and the Heels
won some games where they played their C or B- game. Paige looks like he is hurt much more than we
have been led to believe. He looks two steps slow and is unable to do half of the heroics of last year.
I truly believe he plays hard and wants to help this team win. Unfortunately, he has not been able to
lead and make the other players better this year while dealing with the injuries. The rest of the team is
very inconsistent and they seem to not be able to step up when it is most needed. This team can not
shoot the ball well enough to have an effective and consistent half-court game. I believe that UNC still
is a very talented team, but that talent has to play hard consistently and find a way to win games
down the stretch.

 

[Old_School59]

Why all the doom and gloom? Heck I think we can win out in the regular season. Looks can be deceiving. Roy will get those kids on the right track and a way to motivate will be the ACC Tourney this year. We aren't going to win a NC thats a fact, anyone who believes otherwise has a serious problem. However we can make a late season run and make it to the sweet 16. For this team that would be a huge accomplishment.

 

[Heel Gyeah]

Injuries....

 

[Lewis&Miller]

Things that are not going to change:

Better execution in the half court offense. Roy believes its the players fault, no variation or even refinement of techniques required. Just be tougher, work harder, intensity, want it, etc .....

Defense becomes more consistent. Basically, this team plays winning defense(Carolinas individual player defense under Roy has never been great). Defense is not the critical issue contributing to the skid.

Lineup. Since player performance is viewed as part of the problem varying the lineup combinations is already being tried.

Our half court offensive set. Never, too late in season and Roy could never implement a second set.

The only thing that Roy would entertain changing up is:

Varying the defense to initiate a quicker shot by the opponent. Half court pressure, trapping, run n jump to make the opponent take a shot somewhat outside of their half court offensive structure. This is what happened in the NC State game, that allowed Carolina to make the second half run to cut the lead. It forced Gottfried to call two timeouts during the run. Roy overthought it, called off the trapping after the second timeout(tactical move?), and States lead went right back up. This pressure defensive strategy could lead Carolina into generally "not" having to run its own set half court offense(better open looks, fast break buckets, more possessions, etc). We have tons of players.

The State loss was all about them shortening the game, running the shot clock down. Roy finally had the answer in the second half(late) but out thought himself by calling off the hurry up tempo. Outside of that stretch when the defense was turned up NC State dominated Carolina in the half court.

Do you think Roy will play it out or make an adjustment(not radical but one he would indeed possibly consider)?

 

[Bubspub88]

This team is individually very talented but lacks cohesion playing as a group. Most of that stems from lack of experienced and consistent pg play. No one can really create their own shot and this team does not have a point who can deliver the ball in scoring position. Imagine Kendall Marshal on this team - without him even scoring a basket there are probably 4 or 5 fewer losses. They do not have that alpha dog mentality where they can put away a good team. As an underdog they are good enough to beat anyone, but as a favorite they play more tentative and think too much instead of play in a natural rhythym. Pressure gets inside this team's heads and they lose focus. Every season Roy has not had a stud pg we have seen this same type of basketball - anemic offense, inconsistent play and lack of intensity. When there is a pg who can control tempo the Heels can run, get some easy transition baskets and players gain more confidence when they are forced into a halfcourt set. As far as people saying next year will be the same I disagree. Berry will be a really good pg, especially when he is completely healthy and has some experience. Pinson brings some energy and intangibles this team lacks. Remember a few months ago people were wanting him to be getting a lot more of JP's minutes. Jackson needs some bulk and confidence - both usually gained freshman to soph year. This UNC team has little margin for error but their A game can beat anyone, just not sure with the injuries we can put that A game together. I think after the season we will hear that Brice and Marcus were a lot more banged up than anyone thought.

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by Bubspub88:
This team is individually very talented but lacks cohesion playing as a group. Most of that stems from lack of experienced and consistent pg play. No one can really create their own shot and this team does not have a point who can deliver the ball in scoring position. Imagine Kendall Marshal on this team - without him even scoring a basket there are probably 4 or 5 fewer losses. They do not have that alpha dog mentality where they can put away a good team. As an underdog they are good enough to beat anyone, but as a favorite they play more tentative and think too much instead of play in a natural rhythym. Pressure gets inside this team's heads and they lose focus. Every season Roy has not had a stud pg we have seen this same type of basketball - anemic offense, inconsistent play and lack of intensity. When there is a pg who can control tempo the Heels can run, get some easy transition baskets and players gain more confidence when they are forced into a halfcourt set. As far as people saying next year will be the same I disagree. Berry will be a really good pg, especially when he is completely healthy and has some experience. Pinson brings some energy and intangibles this team lacks. Remember a few months ago people were wanting him to be getting a lot more of JP's minutes. Jackson needs some bulk and confidence - both usually gained freshman to soph year. This UNC team has little margin for error but their A game can beat anyone, just not sure with the injuries we can put that A game together. I think after the season we will hear that Brice and Marcus were a lot more banged up than anyone thought.

Pretty much spot on. This is a PG-intensive system. But ironically our problem comes from the 2 position, in that JP ends up playing it too much, and when he does he tries to be a de facto PG which is a really bad plan, If Marcus has a legit 2 to play with he can be a really good PG. Last season when Roy finally moved McDonald into the starting lineup at the 2 both Paige and the team thrived. Before that it was downright ugly.

Since we don't have a legit 2 on this team, Marcus should be spending most of his time at the 2. Bottom line is that Berry should have been starting at PG from day 1. By now he would be talked about as one of the nation's premier freshmen and this team would be in a much better place. If Roy would give him the keys and show confidence in him Berry has the makeup to be an alpha dog. Granted, Joel has had his own injury issues, but nonetheless, ill-conceived roles have been the root of this team's issues.