Brogden, Draft, NBA morons

[Ozheelfan]

Firstly congrats to Malcom Brogdon, NBA Rookie of the year....

It hasn't been brought up on here, but how is it, just a few days after a record number of freshmen were taken in the first round, a 24yr old, 2nd round pick who played 4yrs of college is voted the best of the rookie class?

I am just a small business owner, so I can't understand the mentality of an NBA office, but I am wondering how the scouts, GMs, player personnel gurus etc of the teams who passed on Brogden still have jobs.

And yet, anyone who watched Brogden and the impact he had on Virginia would have known he was a player. Sure, he may not have the upside of the OAD's picked before him, but in his first year in the league he did what he was paid to do - produce.... not develop.

Not saying any of the undrafted UNC seniors will be next years top Rookie, but Brogden's story should give them hope for an NBA future.

 

[pln2013]

Last 15 RoY winners:
'03: Stoudemire --- straight from HS
'04: LeBron --- straight from HS
'05: Emeka Okafor --- left after 3
'06: CP3 --- left after 2
'07: Roy --- all 4 years
'08: Durant --- one-and-done
'09: Rose --- one-and-done
'10: Evans --- one-and-done
'11: Griffin --- left after 2
'12: Irving --- one-and-done (11 games played)
'13: Lillard --- all 4 years
'14: Carter-Williams --- left after 2
'15: Wiggins --- one-and-done
'16: KAT --- one-and-done
'17: Brogdon --- all 4 years

0-1 years: 8
2-3 years: 4
4 years: 3

Also - Brogdon is considered an exceptionally weak RoY winner. Embiid (one-and-done) would have won it if he'd played more games. The #1 overall pick, Ben Simmons, also missed the year with an injury.

 

[pln2013]

Just for fun, All-NBA teams:

Westbrook --- 2 years
Harden --- 2 years
Leonard --- 2 years
James --- 0 years
Davis --- 1 year

Thomas --- 3 years
Curry --- 2 years
Durant --- 1 year
Antetokounmpo --- foreign
Gobert --- foreign

Wall --- 1 year
DeRozan --- 1 year
Butler --- 3 years
Green --- 4 years
Jordan --- 1 year

0-1 years: 8 (including foreign)
2-3 years: 6
4 years: 1

 

[pln2013]

But yep, NBA GMs are morons for not drafting more 4-year players.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

He said they were morons for missing the obvious skill of Brogden. I acknowledge you did a great deal of work refuting an imaginary premise!

 

[mikeirbyusa]

The Sky is still Carolina Blue.

 

[TarHeelMark]

The Sky is still Carolina Blue.

... and the NBA still sucks.

 

[GACMAN]

But yep, NBA GMs are morons for not drafting more 4-year players.

a little over 100 posts and you already are acting like a fool! Good job!

 

[dadika13]

a little over 100 posts and you already are acting like a fool! Good job!

Really?

He just proved, with facts, that Brogden is more of an aberration than the norm. It's sad that outlandish opinions are more valued than facts on this board.

 

[Tom79]

The message in Oz's post, IMO, and the point of it was development versus actual production.
Without looking I would wager that most of the lists above would provide very little in the way of production and some real development by bench sitting.

 

[tw3301]

The message in Oz's post, IMO, and the point of it was development versus actual production.
Without looking I would wager that most of the lists above would provide very little in the way of production and some real development by bench sitting.

I don't think you win rookie of the year by sitting the bench though.

 

[Tom79]

Thanks for noticing captain.....

 

[gary-7]

Last

0-1 years: 8
2-3 years: 4
4 years: 3

Also - Brogdon is considered an exceptionally weak RoY winner. Embiid (one-and-done) would have won it if he'd played more games. The #1 overall pick, Ben Simmons, also missed the year with an injury.

What the hell does that even mean? If you wanna talk numbers the fact that so many OADs dominate the draft makes it even more impreesive for a a 4-yr guy to do it. Trying to denigrate it with that stuff about Embid and Simmons could be done in several years, by saying well, such-and-such would've won if he didn't get hurt.
OP made a great point, why not leave it at that?

 

[gary-7]

He said they were morons for missing the obvious skill of Brogden. I acknowledge you did a great deal of work refuting an imaginary premise!

For real.

 

[gary-7]

Really?

He just proved, with facts, that Brogden is more of an aberration than the norm. It's sad that outlandish opinions are more valued than facts on this board.

...except his opinion had little to do with the OP's post.

 

[dadika13]

I am just a small business owner, so I can't understand the mentality of an NBA office, but I am wondering how the scouts, GMs, player personnel gurus etc of the teams who passed on Brogden still have jobs.

...except his opinion had little to do with the OP's post.

Sure it did. OP is trying to get half of the front office staff for nearly NBA team fired because they passed up on Brogden.

The correct facts show that it is VERY rare that these 4 year guys become even 3rd team All-NBA players, as the guy who proved this showed.

No one is saying Brogden isn't a great draft pick. But NO ONE thought he'd be ROY, no one. So people should be fired for not being able to get in their dolorean and see that?

 

[gauchoheel]

Last 15 RoY winners:
'03: Stoudemire --- straight from HS
'04: LeBron --- straight from HS
'05: Emeka Okafor --- left after 3
'06: CP3 --- left after 2
'07: Roy --- all 4 years
'08: Durant --- one-and-done
'09: Rose --- one-and-done
'10: Evans --- one-and-done
'11: Griffin --- left after 2
'12: Irving --- one-and-done (11 games played)
'13: Lillard --- all 4 years
'14: Carter-Williams --- left after 2
'15: Wiggins --- one-and-done
'16: KAT --- one-and-done
'17: Brogdon --- all 4 years

0-1 years: 8
2-3 years: 4
4 years: 3

Also - Brogdon is considered an exceptionally weak RoY winner. Embiid (one-and-done) would have won it if he'd played more games. The #1 overall pick, Ben Simmons, also missed the year with an injury.

Let's also consider the fact that a 24 year old rookie SHOULD be a lot closer to their full potential than a 19 year old. You don't draft the OAD guy for their rookie year, you draft them because you think over time they will improve a lot to become superstars.

So while yes Brogdon overachieved and was a steal in the draft, you are coming to the wrong conclusion if you think that means drafting a OAD is a bad idea. Usually the best athletes (not necessarily players) are going to be drafted high after a year or two in college, with the hope they can fill in the missing skills over the course of their rookie contracts (4-5 years).

 

[GoToHeelDook]

Just for the record, Curry played 3 years.

Just for fun, All-NBA teams:

Westbrook --- 2 years
Harden --- 2 years
Leonard --- 2 years
James --- 0 years
Davis --- 1 year

Thomas --- 3 years
Curry --- 2 years
Durant --- 1 year
Antetokounmpo --- foreign
Gobert --- foreign

Wall --- 1 year
DeRozan --- 1 year
Butler --- 3 years
Green --- 4 years
Jordan --- 1 year

0-1 years: 8 (including foreign)
2-3 years: 6
4 years: 1

 

[GoToHeelDook]

I'm not saying that I don't agree with you with this statement, because for the most part I do...

But if that is the case- then Rookie Of The Year has evolved into an entirely pointless award in the NBA.

(Great movie though.)

Let's also consider the fact that a 24 year old rookie SHOULD be a lot closer to their full potential than a 19 year old. You don't draft the OAD guy for their rookie year, you draft them because you think over time they will improve a lot to become superstars.

So while yes Brogdon overachieved and was a steal in the draft, you are coming to the wrong conclusion if you think that means drafting a OAD is a bad idea. Usually the best athletes (not necessarily players) are going to be drafted high after a year or two in college, with the hope they can fill in the missing skills over the course of their rookie contracts (4-5 years).

 

[pln2013]

Just for the record, Curry played 3 years.

Oops. I knew that, too. Not sure why I said 2.

 

[GoToHeelDook]

Figured it was a mistype. Doesn't change your point at all.

Oops. I knew that, too. Not sure why I said 2.

 

[gauchoheel]

I'm not saying that I don't agree with you with this statement, because for the most part I do...

But if that is the case- then Rookie Of The Year has evolved into an entirely pointless award in the NBA.

(Great movie though.)

I don't think it's meaningless, I think it's a cool award. It just doesn't mean you will be the best player a few years from now, which is what the draft is about. The same with Okafor and Lillard, where their ceiling was lower than true superstardom but they came into the league as highly developed players.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Snark aside, I thank both Oz and pln for providing interesting information.

 

[gary-7]

Sure it did. OP is trying to get half of the front office staff for nearly NBA team fired because they passed up on Brogden.

The correct facts show that it is VERY rare that these 4 year guys become even 3rd team All-NBA players, as the guy who proved this showed.

No one is saying Brogden isn't a great draft pick. But NO ONE thought he'd be ROY, no one. So people should be fired for not being able to get in their dolorean and see that?

No one mentioned anything about firing anybody. Personally I thought Brogdon had a damned good chance to be ROY becaue he is a terrific player with an NBA body... and unlike these OADs he was ready to play when he walked into his first NBA camp.

And BTW, the "correct" data show that numbers skew toward early entries simply because, more and more, that's what they're drafting. And if the "no one"s you're referring to are in NBA front offices then maybe they ought to get their heads outta their asses because Malcolm Brogdon was a no-brainer first-rounder... well, at least for anyone with a lick of sense. And in the pre-OAD regime he would have been.

Sure, OADs are attractive because they theoretically have a longer window, but the point I got from OP was that perhaps GMs shouldn't let staying 4 years be a stigma (which it sadly is), and judge the proven player they're getting as opposed to what he might become.

 

[trestyles]

Add to the fact because he was a 2nd round pick, Malcolm is going to be able to sign a bigger second contract faster than a lot of first rounders.

 

[Ozheelfan]

...... OP is trying to get half of the front office staff for nearly NBA team fired because they passed up on Brogden.

Uhh dude... I wish I had the power to do that.

Seriously though, maybe my point was lost here. I queried how so many highly paid scouts, talent evaluators, etc could get it soooo wrong on Brogden. Sure, he wasn't a #1 style pick, but 34???

I just think it's a crazy business model where a team will give a guaranteed contract to a lower tier, unpolished 1 or 2 yr player with a late first round pick instead of going with a guy who'll likely provide immediate help.

It's basically HR gambling where teams are willing to throw out a few mill to take a chance on a flyer.

 

[dadika13]

No one mentioned anything about firing anybody.

I am just a small business owner, so I can't understand the mentality of an NBA office, but I am wondering how the scouts, GMs, player personnel gurus etc of the teams who passed on Brogden still have jobs.

Clear as day dude.

 

[dadika13]

Uhh dude... I wish I had the power to do that.

Good thing you're not an NBA owner then...

 

[trestyles]

Uhh dude... I wish I had the power to do that.

Seriously though, maybe my point was lost here. I queried how so many highly paid scouts, talent evaluators, etc could get it soooo wrong on Brogden. Sure, he wasn't a #1 style pick, but 34???

I just think it's a crazy business model where a team will give a guaranteed contract to a lower tier, unpolished 1 or 2 yr player with a late first round pick instead of going with a guy who'll likely provide immediate help.

It's basically HR gambling where teams are willing to throw out a few mill to take a chance on a flyer.

Here's the scouting report on him from people beloved "nba mock drafts".

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/malcolm-brogdon

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Add to the fact because he was a 2nd round pick, Malcolm is going to be able to sign a bigger second contract faster than a lot of first rounders.

I was wondering about that. Is that how it works?

 

[trestyles]

I was wondering about that. Is that how it works?

Most 2nd round picks signed for 2 years or less. Reason why a lot more draft picks don't mind being a 2nd round pick these days.

One that jumps out my head was KJ Mcdaniels. Signed a one year contract for the minimum with 76ers. Did well and then got a 10 million 3 year contract with the rockets.

 

[tarheel0910]

I queried how so many highly paid scouts, talent evaluators, etc could get it soooo wrong on Brogden. Sure, he wasn't a #1 style pick, but 34???

There are going to be some people who get overlooked, it just happens sometimes. Not every pick is going to be perfect. Sometimes people do better than what was expected. The real question is how will he perform down the road compared to the other picks. ROY is nice to have, but one year is hardly a good sample size to judge how good he will be and how good the other players in his draft will be.

 

[tarheelinfl]

How many great players were drafted in the later rounds, or not at all?
Even happens in the NFL

 

[dadika13]

How many great players were drafted in the later rounds, or not at all?
Even happens in the NFL

Very few when compared to those drafted in the lotto. Let's take the best players since the lotto era, in no order:

MJ - 3rd
Durant - 2nd
Lebron - 1st
Kobe - 13th
Duncan - 1st
Shaq - 1st
Garnett - 5th
Dirk - 9th
Malone - 13th
Barkley - 5th
Wade - 5th
Curry - 7th
David Robinson - 1st
Scottie - 5th
Kidd - 2nd

Need I go on?

 

[tarheelinfl]

Draymond Green 2nd round
Isiah Thomas (Celtics) last player picked
I'll find more later.
The reverse is probably more true, high draft picks on players who were busts in the NBA

 

[tarheel0910]

Draymond Green 2nd round
Isiah Thomas (Celtics) last player picked
I'll find more later.
The reverse is probably more true, high draft picks on players who were busts in the NBA

The fact that you can only name two off the top of your head says a lot. The stats already provided in this thread are pretty much undeniable that high draft picks do better normally. We don't even know if Brogden is a good pick yet. This is just his first year. Let's revisit in a few years and see how he is doing.

 

[tarheelinfl]

The fact that you can only name two off the top of your head says a lot. The stats already provided in this thread are pretty much undeniable that high draft picks do better normally. We don't even know if Brogden is a good pick yet. This is just his first year. Let's revisit in a few years and see how he is doing.[/

It says I don't bother memorizing the NBA draft every season!!
But here are some more later round "finds"
Paul Millsap #47, Toni Kokoc #29 (2nd round), Rashard Lewis #32, Stephen Jackson #43
Clifford Robinson #36, Carlos Boozer #34, DeAndre Jordan #35, Marc Gasol #48, Gilbert Arenas #30 , Maurice Cheeks #36,
Manu Ginobili #57
Obviously the Shaqs, Duncans, Ewings, Robinsons, Olajuwons, Lebrons, are picked high
and do great, no surprise to anybody.
Different sport, but Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round, while Tony Romo was undrafted.
The experts aren't always right