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Can someone explain the disconnect here?????

keysersosay#1

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Apr 7, 2006
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We just got a football commit form a 4 star DT from here in Va Supposedly the 2nd best DT from VA...GREAT news of course


Now football has been doing fairly well with recruiting recently, we are certainly not on the level talent wise with the OSU or Alabama or any of the top ten programs. But Fedora and his staff are out there and getting solid talented players that are being sought by a LOT of big time schools.

They are doing this with ALL of the NCAA crap hanging over the football program ... the possible sanctions etc the negative recruiting all of that

The SAME info is out there for football players,, their families, coaches etc and RIVALS to trash and attack us( and they ARE dong it!!!) .......YET the commitments still come

Meanwhile Roy can NOT get a commitment to save his life .We lost Ingram to the Dark Side and will likely lose Giles as well.

IMO NONE of the TOP players we want are gonna commit to us UNTIL we get that NCAA situation settled. Which in all likelihood will not be before late Winter/early spring 2016


Point being.... What am I missing here??? how can the football program ,with arguably a GREATER chance of penalties levied against it, continue doing pretty well recruiting wise , while the basketball program is just STUCK, grinding our gears and HOPING that we can get someone,, hell anyone, to commit to us BEFORE the NCAA rules.

Someone offer a reasonable explanation please

Thank You
 
I'm not an expert in this field, but didn't the football program already receive their punishment in the past? And IIRC, the NCAA even said that they were not investigating the football program. (I'll try to find the article to back this up).

Whether that's the case or not, the fear of NCAA sanctions are real and beginning to show amongst recruits. McC*nt appearing on ESPN (which is watched by 100% of top recruits) painted the basketball program in a bad light. Whether what he said was true or not is another debate. Because of this, many followers and even those who aren't following the scandal think that the basketball program is going to get hammered hard. And you truly can't blame them. All the handlers and coaches of rival schools in their ears, you wouldn't know what to believe.

Unfortunately, we are in a virtual state of limbo until the University responds to the NOA, and some seem to think they are going to continue to take their time with the response. Meanwhile, we're going to lose more recruits to this situation.
 
Ingram was ALWAYS going to Duke! Football takes a ton of guys for a team, not so with Basketball. If Roy went after the guys below the top 100 we would be getting a roster full. Meanwhile getting guys like Berry-Jackson-Theo ain't so bad now is it? Hard to bring in top notch guys who want to play NOW when you have a roster like ours. Football to Basketball is a classic Apples vs Oranges. Let the NCAA crap play out then get back to us.
 
We just got a football commit form a 4 star DT from here in Va Supposedly the 2nd best DT from VA...GREAT news of course


Now football has been doing fairly well with recruiting recently, we are certainly not on the level talent wise with the OSU or Alabama or any of the top ten programs. But Fedora and his staff are out there and getting solid talented players that are being sought by a LOT of big time schools.

They are doing this with ALL of the NCAA crap hanging over the football program ... the possible sanctions etc the negative recruiting all of that

The SAME info is out there for football players,, their families, coaches etc and RIVALS to trash and attack us( and they ARE dong it!!!) .......YET the commitments still come

Meanwhile Roy can NOT get a commitment to save his life .We lost Ingram to the Dark Side and will likely lose Giles as well.

IMO NONE of the TOP players we want are gonna commit to us UNTIL we get that NCAA situation settled. Which in all likelihood will not be before late Winter/early spring 2016


Point being.... What am I missing here??? how can the football program ,with arguably a GREATER chance of penalties levied against it, continue doing pretty well recruiting wise , while the basketball program is just STUCK, grinding our gears and HOPING that we can get someone,, hell anyone, to commit to us BEFORE the NCAA rules.

Someone offer a reasonable explanation please

Thank You
Easy.
There are no potential OADs in football... 3 yr minimum.
 
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We just got a football commit form a 4 star DT from here in Va Supposedly the 2nd best DT from VA...GREAT news of course


Now football has been doing fairly well with recruiting recently, we are certainly not on the level talent wise with the OSU or Alabama or any of the top ten programs. But Fedora and his staff are out there and getting solid talented players that are being sought by a LOT of big time schools.

They are doing this with ALL of the NCAA crap hanging over the football program ... the possible sanctions etc the negative recruiting all of that

The SAME info is out there for football players,, their families, coaches etc and RIVALS to trash and attack us( and they ARE dong it!!!) .......YET the commitments still come

Meanwhile Roy can NOT get a commitment to save his life .We lost Ingram to the Dark Side and will likely lose Giles as well.

IMO NONE of the TOP players we want are gonna commit to us UNTIL we get that NCAA situation settled. Which in all likelihood will not be before late Winter/early spring 2016


Point being.... What am I missing here??? how can the football program ,with arguably a GREATER chance of penalties levied against it, continue doing pretty well recruiting wise , while the basketball program is just STUCK, grinding our gears and HOPING that we can get someone,, hell anyone, to commit to us BEFORE the NCAA rules.

Someone offer a reasonable explanation please

Thank You
Most FB recruits don't expect to play/start day one Therefore if sanctions they should be gone when their time comes. Just a guess.
 
...and red-shirting in CFB is more norm than exception.
REOPENING RECRUITING IS ALWAYS IN THESE KIDS BACK POCKET IF IT COMES DOWN TO IT!!..HAPPENS IN FOOTBALL WAY MORE THAN BBALL..IF SOMETHING SERIOUS WAS TO HAPPEN WITH THE SANCTIONS CONCERNING THE FOOTBALL PROGRAM..KIDS WILL REOPEN THEIR RECRUITMENT WHICH IS THE NORM IN FOOTBALL!!
 
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Yeah I know all about "soft verbals and ability to reopen//I know all about 3 year mins and no OAD in football but this kid Campbell had offers from...Alabama, Auburn THE oSU PSU Ga and others..

Why even BOTHER with Carolina at THIS point when you can attend THOSE alternatives for football???


I am beginning to believe that Fedora and his staff are REALLY good salesmen... NOT harder workers than Roy and his staff.... just better at pitching Carolina

Roy has major headwinds but so does the football program despite what some think / In fact they are facing even greater headwinds BECAUSE of their recent sanctions

Still a bit amazed at all this and am not gonna hold my breath that Roy will get a big commitment before next spring.
 
Yeah I know all about "soft verbals and ability to reopen//I know all about 3 year mins and no OAD in football but this kid Campbell had offers from...Alabama, Auburn THE oSU PSU Ga and others..

Why even BOTHER with Carolina at THIS point when you can attend THOSE alternatives for football???


I am beginning to believe that Fedora and his staff are REALLY good salesmen... NOT harder workers than Roy and his staff.... just better at pitching Carolina

Roy has major headwinds but so does the football program despite what some think / In fact they are facing even greater headwinds BECAUSE of their recent sanctions

Still a bit amazed at all this and am not gonna hold my breath that Roy will get a big commitment before next spring.
Also remember, a lotta those football kids who claim bigtime offers (Auburn/Alabama/OSU/etc) don't always have "commitable" offers from them, that is, the school wouldn't neceasarily accept a commitment unless they have a scholly left over on signing day.
 
Well I can only go by what some who follow this stuff a lot more than I do, But this kid IS a 4 star player and a very hot prospect by all accounts

I think any of those schools would be very happy to have him
 
Football has enough of a distance between college and pro. BBall players are one and done; football is 3 years removed.
 
Well I can only go by what some who follow this stuff a lot more than I do, But this kid IS a 4 star player and a very hot prospect by all accounts

I think any of those schools would be very happy to have him
Wasn't referring to this particular kid. But the big thing to your original question is the difference between the OADs and the 3 yr football rule.
The AAU culture in basketball is poison as well. Their heads get filled with such crap and they're treated like minor league pros, and in any given class most of your top-50 players (whether they say so or not) fancy themselves as potential OADs or 2ADs (whether it's realistic or not). The 3-year-after-HS rule in football (along with not havng AAU) is the biggest difference in recruiting for the two sports.
Unless a school is going to get absolutely hammered, NCAA stuff isn't as big a deterrent for top kids in football.
 
Wasn't referring to this particular kid. But the big thing to your original question is the difference between the OADs and the 3 yr football rule.
The AAU culture in basketball is poison as well. Their heads get filled with such crap and they're treated like minor league pros, and in any given class most of your top-50 players (whether they say so or not) fancy themselves as potential OADs or 2ADs (whether it's realistic or not). The 3-year-after-HS rule in football (along with not havng AAU) is the biggest difference in recruiting for the two sports.
Unless a school is going to get absolutely hammered, NCAA stuff isn't as big a deterrent for top kids in football.

This is exactly what Andrew and Clint were discussing in a recent podcast.
Even if FB gets a punishment, a 2016 recruit can ride it out, knowing they'll likely be able to play in their all important Junior and Senior years.
OAD and 2AD Baskeballers don't have that luxury.
 
Maybe I am missing something, but didn't we have a pretty good class last year, when looking at how they turned out after the season?

I don't follow recruiting at all and I don't pay attention to recruit rankings. Too many players who were barely mentioned who turned into studs once they get to college and get better coaching.

And this team looks pretty stacked heading into the season, so what's the worry?
 
It's apples to oranges Key, for all the reasons already listed. After Barnes' recruitment, I decided not to sweat recruiting like I have in the past. I know the staff is working their butts off. We'll go to battle with whoever we have. It sure would be nice to have an NCAA ruling so we could recruit on a level playing ground though.
 
Key, I am with you on the "disconnect" but as mentioned above football and basketball are apples and oranges.
That and with a loaded roster in MBB results in a class such as '15's. We have 12 spots on the bench, we will reload next year and it sure looks like the landscape may be changing out there...Harry to Oak Hill as an example, with Coleman...could the two be working a plan? Dunno...Roy & Co. have some really good kids on radar...trust our staff/Roy.
IMO, the misrepresentations presented by our rivals will come back on them. As some say, that Karma she's a ... :cool:
 
We just got a football commit form a 4 star DT from here in Va Supposedly the 2nd best DT from VA...GREAT news of course


Now football has been doing fairly well with recruiting recently, we are certainly not on the level talent wise with the OSU or Alabama or any of the top ten programs. But Fedora and his staff are out there and getting solid talented players that are being sought by a LOT of big time schools.

They are doing this with ALL of the NCAA crap hanging over the football program ... the possible sanctions etc the negative recruiting all of that

The SAME info is out there for football players,, their families, coaches etc and RIVALS to trash and attack us( and they ARE dong it!!!) .......YET the commitments still come

Meanwhile Roy can NOT get a commitment to save his life .We lost Ingram to the Dark Side and will likely lose Giles as well.

IMO NONE of the TOP players we want are gonna commit to us UNTIL we get that NCAA situation settled. Which in all likelihood will not be before late Winter/early spring 2016


Point being.... What am I missing here??? how can the football program ,with arguably a GREATER chance of penalties levied against it, continue doing pretty well recruiting wise , while the basketball program is just STUCK, grinding our gears and HOPING that we can get someone,, hell anyone, to commit to us BEFORE the NCAA rules.

Someone offer a reasonable explanation please

Thank You

Key, as you can see from the replys the answer you are asking for is not the answer many want to consider. Good folks here for sure but seriously afraid many want to bury their head in the sand while clinging to the mantra " it is all about the NCAA cloud that has surrounded us". But if that were true recruiting would have been shut down well before this last recruiting cycle or this one we are now in. I would love to be able to tell ya, when the NCAA announces their final decision on punishment it wil be back to green flag racin for our basketball recruiting, I would love to join that chorus. Problem is the NCAA issues is a big time problem, of course other programs are using that against us but that is not the only problem, IMO it may not even be the largest obstacle we have to over come.

The bigger problem IMO is we have allowed UNC to become branded as a bad place for the bigger talents to go if they want to play as a freshman. Even when we have got really talented guys the trend has been that they under achieve the over hyped expectations as freshmen. Take guys like JMM, Barnes, JP, Dexter, PJ, all very hyped coming out of high school and olny Barnes had what you would consider solid freshmen seasons and even he watched his draft position drop while at Carolina. These kids watch hard how draftability of their peers happens, does it drop or does it increase. JMM went from a huge recruit to being a low second round pick, I am not sayaing UNC hurt them as players but addressing the perception that freshmen do not excell at UNC. These kids are looking to excell as freshmen and move on to pay days, doesn't matter if some of the kids we have got were grossly over hyped, it is perception we battle more so than reality.

One of the issues is that UNC has always been known as the place a lot of the really good kids went, the kids that were great ambassadors for the college game both on as well as off the court. But we have had some real head cases in our midst over the last few years, PJ, Graves, Larry Drew, the twins, Ed Davis, and Lmac have all had locker room issues or off court issues that have been embarassing and in far to many cases involved law enforcement. There has been severe damage done to our image by these guys.

Look right now, there is a thread discussing a alum game between current UNC NBA players vs Ky NBA players, and even UNC fans assume we will lose? You think back and tell me in the past when that would have been the assumed out come, kids now days look very hard at who is playing big time roles in the NBA and who are the tar Heels doing that today? Who is the projected NBA all star these kids look to imulate now, it used to be guys like Mike, Worthey, Brad, Jamison, VC, sheed, ect, who is it now? There is a real reason kalipari stated that draft day is the biggest part of his program, definite reason he makes such a point to be there front & center on draft night because it sells the kids being recruited. It is spinning perception and in the perception game we are losing big time. That is all without the extra added problem of the NCAA cloud.

IN football we are able to sell playing time early on so our staff is going out on the offensive. YOu watched our football team last season and you are a well considered defensive player being recruited you already know you can play at UNC before you would be able to at most other programs, perception is just the opposite for the basketball team and basketball players are more sensitive to playing early as freshmen. Ky rode 3 freshmen to a title a while back, duke just rode 3 freshmen to titles last season, our last 2 titles we rode jr & sr players to both of them. YOu see a difference, a difference that NCAA clouds do not explain?

Syracuse got hammerred by the NCAA, we have not been yet, what program had the better recruiting season for 2015 or 2016, them or us? frankly I don't even know because I have not looked to see who the cuse is bringing in as freshmen this coming season or who they have in the bag so far for 2016 but it would not shock me to find out that they stil beat us even with NCAA bans and scholly reductions.

I am not suggesting the NCAA issue is not a problem or that it is not a major problem but I will tell you as I have tried to tel others, it is not the only problem and it may not even be the biggest problem. I hope it can get back to green flag racin when the NCAA finally rules on us and hands out the punishment they want, I am afraid the caution flag will still be out for us, we will not automatically become on par with Ky & duke in the recruiting scene because our perception is a major issue that may take years to re-establish.
 
Plus, let's not sell Fedora and his staff short. Fedora, Chizik, Charlton Warren, Tray Scott, John Papuchis, Coach Kap.....they are all phenomenal recruiters. Plus, the football program is not afraid to embrace innovative and new ideas to keep things fresh for recruits. Even recruits we don't land rave about the camps and the visits they take to Carolina. Fedora and his staff have managed to turn Carolina Football into a decently well-known commodity -- at least regionally -- for recruits.

As for basketball, like others have said, it's just a numbers crunch. All schools are fighting for a handful of guys. But that being said, put me down as being one who's concerned about our recruiting lately. But I trust Roy and staff to right the ship.
 
Soze, it seems to me you have answered your own question. Carolina basketball is not Carolina football and if Ol'Roy were to go out and sign a bunch of 4 Star recruits, you'd be calling for his head. We are only happy with the best and in basketball, they are harder to obtain in this new era of OADers. Carolina has traditionally been a senior lead school and is very slow to change. The darker side has and with their great results, you are not happy! I just don't see Ol'Roy abandoning "The Carolina Way" in hopes of immediate results, but I've been wrong before.
 
Key, as you can see from the replys the answer you are asking for is not the answer many want to consider. Good folks here for sure but seriously afraid many want to bury their head in the sand while clinging to the mantra " it is all about the NCAA cloud that has surrounded us". But if that were true recruiting would have been shut down well before this last recruiting cycle or this one we are now in. I would love to be able to tell ya, when the NCAA announces their final decision on punishment it wil be back to green flag racin for our basketball recruiting, I would love to join that chorus. Problem is the NCAA issues is a big time problem, of course other programs are using that against us but that is not the only problem, IMO it may not even be the largest obstacle we have to over come.

The bigger problem IMO is we have allowed UNC to become branded as a bad place for the bigger talents to go if they want to play as a freshman. Even when we have got really talented guys the trend has been that they under achieve the over hyped expectations as freshmen. Take guys like JMM, Barnes, JP, Dexter, PJ, all very hyped coming out of high school and olny Barnes had what you would consider solid freshmen seasons and even he watched his draft position drop while at Carolina. These kids watch hard how draftability of their peers happens, does it drop or does it increase. JMM went from a huge recruit to being a low second round pick, I am not sayaing UNC hurt them as players but addressing the perception that freshmen do not excell at UNC. These kids are looking to excell as freshmen and move on to pay days, doesn't matter if some of the kids we have got were grossly over hyped, it is perception we battle more so than reality.

One of the issues is that UNC has always been known as the place a lot of the really good kids went, the kids that were great ambassadors for the college game both on as well as off the court. But we have had some real head cases in our midst over the last few years, PJ, Graves, Larry Drew, the twins, Ed Davis, and Lmac have all had locker room issues or off court issues that have been embarassing and in far to many cases involved law enforcement. There has been severe damage done to our image by these guys.

Look right now, there is a thread discussing a alum game between current UNC NBA players vs Ky NBA players, and even UNC fans assume we will lose? You think back and tell me in the past when that would have been the assumed out come, kids now days look very hard at who is playing big time roles in the NBA and who are the tar Heels doing that today? Who is the projected NBA all star these kids look to imulate now, it used to be guys like Mike, Worthey, Brad, Jamison, VC, sheed, ect, who is it now? There is a real reason kalipari stated that draft day is the biggest part of his program, definite reason he makes such a point to be there front & center on draft night because it sells the kids being recruited. It is spinning perception and in the perception game we are losing big time. That is all without the extra added problem of the NCAA cloud.

IN football we are able to sell playing time early on so our staff is going out on the offensive. YOu watched our football team last season and you are a well considered defensive player being recruited you already know you can play at UNC before you would be able to at most other programs, perception is just the opposite for the basketball team and basketball players are more sensitive to playing early as freshmen. Ky rode 3 freshmen to a title a while back, duke just rode 3 freshmen to titles last season, our last 2 titles we rode jr & sr players to both of them. YOu see a difference, a difference that NCAA clouds do not explain?

Syracuse got hammerred by the NCAA, we have not been yet, what program had the better recruiting season for 2015 or 2016, them or us? frankly I don't even know because I have not looked to see who the cuse is bringing in as freshmen this coming season or who they have in the bag so far for 2016 but it would not shock me to find out that they stil beat us even with NCAA bans and scholly reductions.

I am not suggesting the NCAA issue is not a problem or that it is not a major problem but I will tell you as I have tried to tel others, it is not the only problem and it may not even be the biggest problem. I hope it can get back to green flag racin when the NCAA finally rules on us and hands out the punishment they want, I am afraid the caution flag will still be out for us, we will not automatically become on par with Ky & duke in the recruiting scene because our perception is a major issue that may take years to re-establish.
Dave, while those are points well taken, I'm gonna take issue on one very big aspect:
I for one do not EVER want to see Carolina turn to the Cal (and now K) model of recruiting, nor do we need to,
Bring 'em in for a year and dumb down our system? No thank you.
And moreover, I don't think we'll NEED to in order to get elite recruits once the NCAA red herring is done and done. Remember, in the past Roy has been able to "select" enough of the elite kids with their heads screwed on straight (e.g., Psycho, Ellington, Lawson, Zeller, Barnes, Butter, Henson, Reggie --- and most recently, Berry, Theo and JJ) with a few OADs mixed in along the way, and will do so again once the "issues" are done. There have always been several kids who shun us in favor of instant gratification --- hell, that goes back to the Dean Smith era (remember Dean losing Rex Chapman after we already had his jersey made because UK came in and promised him a starting job?). That sort of thing hasn't changed... it's just gotten a bit worse.

It was only last year that Roy brought in a terrific elite class... and all 3 of those kids knew full well coming in that there were no guarantees of starting given the roster we had coming back.. again, 3 elite kids with their heads screwed on straight). There are more classes like that to be had in the future.

So make no mistake: THE biggest issue in Roy having trouble recruiting to his traditional model is indeed the NCAA garbage out there. The challenges you correctly mention will still be there, but then they always have been. Roy will go back to getting his nonetheless.
 
Dave, while those are points well taken, I'm gonna take issue on one very big aspect:
I for one do not EVER want to see Carolina turn to the Cal (and now K) model of recruiting, nor do we need to,
Bring 'em in for a year and dumb down our system? No thank you.
And moreover, I don't think we'll NEED to in order to get elite recruits once the NCAA red herring is done and done. Remember, in the past Roy has been able to "select" enough of the elite kids with their heads screwed on straight (e.g., Psycho, Ellington, Lawson, Zeller, Barnes, Butter, Henson, Reggie --- and most recently, Berry, Theo and JJ) with a few OADs mixed in along the way, and will do so again once the "issues" are done. There have always been several kids who shun us in favor of instant gratification --- hell, that goes back to the Dean Smith era (remember Dean losing Rex Chapman after we already had his jersey made because UK came in and promised him a starting job?). That sort of thing hasn't changed... it's just gotten a bit worse.

It was only last year that Roy brought in a terrific elite class... and all 3 of those kids knew full well coming in that there were no guarantees of starting given the roster we had coming back.. again, 3 elite kids with their heads screwed on straight). There are more classes like that to be had in the future.

So make no mistake: THE biggest issue in Roy having trouble recruiting to his traditional model is indeed the NCAA garbage out there. The challenges you correctly mention will still be there, but then they always have been. Roy will go back to getting his nonetheless.

Gary, I didn't say I want to see us adopt the same model as Kal or K, I am very much opposed to that personally. But what we are selling over the last couple years in recruiting has not been what these kids are looking to buy. I have discussed what I want us to be selling. BUt times have changed gary, what used to sell well isn't selling like it was, these kids are looking to buy other pitches.

Now I agree, the NCAA cloud is a big problem, never stated other wise, but any taking the view our troubles wil be solved as soon as the NCAA rules are setting themselves up for disappointment if they are expecting K or Kalipari type of classes to all the sudden roll in to us.
 
Dave as usual you are astute in your analysis...all in all when you combine the NCAA cloud with the WAY that Carolina develops players and the PERCEPTION that kids have, coupled with the massive negative recruiting from the likes of dook Moo KY and others, we end up where we are right now...stuck................ and again I see nothing on the immediate horizon that is gonna change that.
 
Gary, I didn't say I want to see us adopt the same model as Kal or K, I am very much opposed to that personally. But what we are selling over the last couple years in recruiting has not been what these kids are looking to buy. I have discussed what I want us to be selling. BUt times have changed gary, what used to sell well isn't selling like it was, these kids are looking to buy other pitches.

Now I agree, the NCAA cloud is a big problem, never stated other wise, but any taking the view our troubles wil be solved as soon as the NCAA rules are setting themselves up for disappointment if they are expecting K or Kalipari type of classes to all the sudden roll in to us.
That's just it... Carolina historically functions quite well without those overly gaudy classes --- get 1-3 Burger Boyz and a couple of undervalued guys with upside in a given year and we're rockin', and there's no reason we can't get back to that model. If there's a OAD or 2 mixed in along the way, fine, but I'd rather see (as I know you would) players develop into the system and not have to "restock" the entire dadgummed store every year.

Have things changed (for the worse) in the recruiting scene? Well, yeah, of course they have --- we talk about it all the time on here. But Dave, my point is that they haven't changed THAT much. Once the NCAA garbage is history Carolina will still be Carolina, and Roy will once again be able to pluck enough of the the right elite kids... and that wide net he's been forced to cast this year will go back to being more "dolphin friendly" :D
 
nice post gary-7...
I, too, feel like once the dust settles (around October we hope) "wide net" goes back to "selective net".
If the elites want in, get in, otherwise get out of the way.

Like that breakfast/lunch place out at Nags Head/Kitty Hawk...Bill's eat and get the hell out...
honestly....that is the name of his restaurant.
 
I tend to lean towards the inflated self valuation by players today and those around them versus even 15 years ago as the one major change in the recruiting scene - the AAU organizations are making their money whether the kids do well or not after moving on

i read on an NCAA article where ~3.4% of all Mens High School BB players make it to NCAA rosters and from that group ~1.2% make it on a NBA roster

rough numbers from the site
540,000 down selected to 18,320 down selected to 60 draft slots of which ~40 make rosters the balance must fight it out as undrafted prospects
I doubt many AAU coaches and advisers discuss this with the kids today to let them know what they are truly up against
I don't want to crush a kids dreams but they should know the deck is stacked and they need to truly focus and maximize to get a shot and that does not guarantee anything therefore if you can get a degree + quality coaching + quality exposure isn't that a win

another article (don't recall if cbs /si / espn) took a look at the % of OAD which make rosters versus produce at a high level
if i recall the numbers correctly
12% flop / wash out
27% short bench stints out within 1-3 years
37% rotation players average career 3-7 years
24% starters average career 5-10 years

So as old school as this sounds staying 2-3 years and getting that tuition (or at least the foundation classes completed) is a better bet than making the NBA - just like the rest of the job markets there is a small percentage that "make it" the balance fight it out with the masses already in the market and the next crop of kids coming out of the university ranks - our degrees and connections open more doors than anything else

feel like i am rambling and not making a point and i would suspect Coach Williams feels the same sometimes when working with today's environment surrounding recruiting
 
Wow dlew71, those numbers are impressive, ya got to feel for the kids that are getting the smoke blown up their shorts.
 
Dave as usual you are astute in your analysis................ and again I see nothing on the immediate horizon that is gonna change that.

Good points from both Dave and Gary, so glad they post here.
Key, there is one thing that'll help a lot: Winning.

I had a suspicion the other day and checked some results:

In the 6 years since #50 was retired here is how the Heels have matched up with in-state rivals:
UNC 6-2 over Wake (no series sweep since they don't play twice every year)
UNC 11-2 over Moo (4 series sweeps)
UNC 3-9 to Dook!!!! (UNC has been swept 3 times in 6 years)

The last line is a very sobering one. Add into it that the Heels have lost 4 of 6 at the Dean Dome!!
The UNC-Dook game is nationally televised, it's mega-hyped by ESPN and is the one Roy invites all the big recruits to..... sadly the team has laid an egg at home regularly and I believe that hurts big time.

It also doesn't help when they lose to Moo at home and sneak out an OT win in Raleigh last season.

So there's just another factor, not the only one, but something worth thinking about.
 
UNC 3-9 to Dook!!!! (UNC has been swept 3 times in 6 years)

The last line is a very sobering one. Add into it that the Heels have lost 4 of 6 at the Dean Dome!!
Yep Oz, those are unacceptable numbers.
And I've said this before, even though it's 5-against-8 every time we play those grabbing, holding, flopping, cheating f***s... and as much as I love Roy, he let the 2 games this season get away.

It's time to restore the natural order of things.
:mad:
 
C'mon Mikey... ya really hafta ask that, given the sleazeball who coaches over there?
:rolleyes:

You know I know Gary, just trying to get folk to open their eyes and realize we ain't on an equal playing field. NEVER want us to stoop to the level some programs do just to get a kid for one semester. Or am I alone there?
 
That's just it... Carolina historically functions quite well without those overly gaudy classes --- get 1-3 Burger Boyz and a couple of undervalued guys with upside in a given year and we're rockin', and there's no reason we can't get back to that model. If there's a OAD or 2 mixed in along the way, fine, but I'd rather see (as I know you would) players develop into the system and not have to "restock" the entire dadgummed store every year.

Have things changed (for the worse) in the recruiting scene? Well, yeah, of course they have --- we talk about it all the time on here. But Dave, my point is that they haven't changed THAT much. Once the NCAA garbage is history Carolina will still be Carolina, and Roy will once again be able to pluck enough of the the right elite kids... and that wide net he's been forced to cast this year will go back to being more "dolphin friendly" :D

"but I'd rather see (as I know you would) players develop into the system and not have to "restock" the entire dadgummed store every year."

^ Now I do not disagree, matter of fact I totally do agree but IMO one of the major changes I see is these kids (I am talking more about top 20 level kids) don't really think they need much if any developement. They are definitely hesitant to be willing to invest the time that it takes to develope their skills which we all know defines as more than a single college basketball season.

Now stick a microphone in their face and they will say all the right things but it ain't about what they say, it is about what they do. These kids have replaced skill developement with playing games, most start playing games year round about the 5th grade. IN many ways totally opposite from the way kids develope in europe where skill developement and grounding in fundementals trumps playing in so many games. The concepts of team play, real skill developement, working on their body, loyality to a school, and waiting their turn have become foreign concepts to these kids. At this point (when they get recruited) they now look for instant grits, like a poster I once had, I want it all now. Now of course that is not a one size fits all statement but it is a statement that fits far to many, enough to at least in my mind say it is a radical change from just a few years ago and it seems progressively getting worse.

What we have been accustomed to at UNC is kids that come in that love to play for UNC, that are great ambassadors both on and off the court, kids loyal to their team and their school, kids that work hard in the off season to improve their skills and their body. While it didn't always work out that way it worked out well enough that the best player this game has ever seen played 3 seasons at UNC. Now you are lucky if the #20 kid in a recruiting class plays a soph season, now we lose kids to the NBA draft like JMM and JP who would NEVER have been considered draftable or ready for the NBA game based on their first 3 seasons of play. No offense to those 2 fellas but neither of them would be in many UNC fans top 50 UNC players list, it was even questionable if JP would or should have started this coming season.

Now days refined skill has been replaced by athletism as the bench mark for being ready for the NBA. That is like an engineer not understanding math but knowing where to buy a cool calculator?

The inmates are running the asylum, these kids are now demanding a starting position, oh no they will not say that but they just simply do not commit to a school that has someone they consider as a guy that would start over them as freshmen. They are demanding now to get me you have to take my 2 buds that are great talents as well, I recall a time when the coach was not only able to determine if a kid started but as well decided himself who he brought in and didn't allow his players or recruits to dictate his job to him. That time was not all that long ago...

I am the guy that feels these kids should be able to enter the NBA draft straight out of high school or after any season in college, no, I am not a fan of the baseball rule. Let them go, if they think they are ready let them go. I want kids in the college programs that want to be there or at very least realize they need to be there. But there are so many rewards out there for a kid to enter the league as soon as possible, a major consideration is the rookie contract structure that limits how much these kids can make their first 3-4yrs. Kids realize, the quicker they can get thru the rookie contract structure the quicker they can nail that big time contract.

I read a poster in the last couple days say that the NCAA game is becoming a free developmental league for the NBA, I nearly fell over, the NCAA has ALWAYS been a free developmental league for the NBA. The problem is the NCAA is so weak in the knees that it allows the NBA to dictate the terms without standing up for itself. Frankly the NCAA should sit down with the NBA and hammer out an agreement that is good for the NCAA game, that ends this one & done nonsense and if that could not be worked out I would say go back to freshman ineligibility and lets the chips fall where they may. I have talked in the past about some things that could be hammered out that would keep the best talents in college programs for most if not all 4 years of eligibility but folks have to get their thinking outside of the box. For example allow a kids to be drafted at any time and his money be held in trust with access for certian emergency situations and maybe a smaller monthy allottment but for each season in college a year is removed from the rookie contract structure.

The NCAA needs to take an aggresive stance over the apparel company involvement with individual players and that needs to happen NOW !
 
You know I know Gary, just trying to get folk to open their eyes and realize we ain't on an equal playing field. NEVER want us to stoop to the level some programs do just to get a kid for one semester. Or am I alone there?

While I totally agree Mikey, we need only look at all the hand wringing that goes on when one of the for sure one & dones commit elsewhere to realize that to many it doesn't matter what it takes, they just want the best talents here and are willing to look the other way at what has to occur to get them here. But let a transgression show up publically, as in the case of the AFAM and folks seem shocked? All the sudden rival fans scream they cheat and it doesn't matter at all that every one of those rival fans beloved schools are doing the same or MUCH WORSE, before ya know it even our own fans seem to believe we are a rouge program. We have seen this play out for the last what, 4years?
 
Key, as you can see from the replys the answer you are asking for is not the answer many want to consider. Good folks here for sure but seriously afraid many want to bury their head in the sand while clinging to the mantra " it is all about the NCAA cloud that has surrounded us". But if that were true recruiting would have been shut down well before this last recruiting cycle or this one we are now in. I would love to be able to tell ya, when the NCAA announces their final decision on punishment it wil be back to green flag racin for our basketball recruiting, I would love to join that chorus. Problem is the NCAA issues is a big time problem, of course other programs are using that against us but that is not the only problem, IMO it may not even be the largest obstacle we have to over come.

The bigger problem IMO is we have allowed UNC to become branded as a bad place for the bigger talents to go if they want to play as a freshman. Even when we have got really talented guys the trend has been that they under achieve the over hyped expectations as freshmen. Take guys like JMM, Barnes, JP, Dexter, PJ, all very hyped coming out of high school and olny Barnes had what you would consider solid freshmen seasons and even he watched his draft position drop while at Carolina. These kids watch hard how draftability of their peers happens, does it drop or does it increase. JMM went from a huge recruit to being a low second round pick, I am not sayaing UNC hurt them as players but addressing the perception that freshmen do not excell at UNC. These kids are looking to excell as freshmen and move on to pay days, doesn't matter if some of the kids we have got were grossly over hyped, it is perception we battle more so than reality.

One of the issues is that UNC has always been known as the place a lot of the really good kids went, the kids that were great ambassadors for the college game both on as well as off the court. But we have had some real head cases in our midst over the last few years, PJ, Graves, Larry Drew, the twins, Ed Davis, and Lmac have all had locker room issues or off court issues that have been embarassing and in far to many cases involved law enforcement. There has been severe damage done to our image by these guys.

Look right now, there is a thread discussing a alum game between current UNC NBA players vs Ky NBA players, and even UNC fans assume we will lose? You think back and tell me in the past when that would have been the assumed out come, kids now days look very hard at who is playing big time roles in the NBA and who are the tar Heels doing that today? Who is the projected NBA all star these kids look to imulate now, it used to be guys like Mike, Worthey, Brad, Jamison, VC, sheed, ect, who is it now? There is a real reason kalipari stated that draft day is the biggest part of his program, definite reason he makes such a point to be there front & center on draft night because it sells the kids being recruited. It is spinning perception and in the perception game we are losing big time. That is all without the extra added problem of the NCAA cloud.

IN football we are able to sell playing time early on so our staff is going out on the offensive. YOu watched our football team last season and you are a well considered defensive player being recruited you already know you can play at UNC before you would be able to at most other programs, perception is just the opposite for the basketball team and basketball players are more sensitive to playing early as freshmen. Ky rode 3 freshmen to a title a while back, duke just rode 3 freshmen to titles last season, our last 2 titles we rode jr & sr players to both of them. YOu see a difference, a difference that NCAA clouds do not explain?

Syracuse got hammerred by the NCAA, we have not been yet, what program had the better recruiting season for 2015 or 2016, them or us? frankly I don't even know because I have not looked to see who the cuse is bringing in as freshmen this coming season or who they have in the bag so far for 2016 but it would not shock me to find out that they stil beat us even with NCAA bans and scholly reductions.

I am not suggesting the NCAA issue is not a problem or that it is not a major problem but I will tell you as I have tried to tel others, it is not the only problem and it may not even be the biggest problem. I hope it can get back to green flag racin when the NCAA finally rules on us and hands out the punishment they want, I am afraid the caution flag will still be out for us, we will not automatically become on par with Ky & duke in the recruiting scene because our perception is a major issue that may take years to re-establish.

FYI, I just checked, Syracuse is bringing in 4 four star recruits as freshmen this coming season and already has commits from a 4star and a 5 star from the 2016 class....And their head coach has been suspended, scholly reductions and post season bans...
 
Well the Cuse info is revealing VERY revealing, as their troubles as far as basketball are FAR worse than ours. YET.........................
 
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