CHAMPIONSHIP GAME!!! It's going to be a difficult one. Gonzaga in #1 in Kenpom, Sagarin, and BPI. Here's Gonzaga's tournament rotation with stats and analysis:
Guards:
PG Nigel Williams-Goss 6-3, 195 lb: 33 mpg, 20.7 Points/40, .537 2P%, .368 3P%
Wing Josh Perkins 6-3, 190 lb: 29 mpg, 11.0 Points/40, .472 2P%, .395 3P%
Wing Jordan Mathews 6-4, 203 lb: 28 mpg, 15.5 Points/40, .439 2P%, .392 3P%
Reserve Silas Melson 6-4, 195 lb: 24 mpg, 12.1 Points/40, .514 2P%, .389 3P%
The Zags have great guard depth with four experienced players that can all shoot from outside. Mathews is the best shooter with 212 attempts at 39% (Perkins is 2nd with 152 attempts). With Berry's injuries he will probably guard Perkins while Pinson/Jackson will be tasked with guarding Williams-Goss.
Williams-Goss is their top scoring guard, and while he can shoot he's best at penetrating and getting layups (54% from 2), free throws (88.4% from the line), or kicking it out to one of the other guards. He rarely turns the ball over (2.23 A/TO ratio) and generally creates most of the offense on his own drives or through entry passes to the bigs inside. Slowing him is critical and fortunately we have wings that should be up to it, as there's no one you can help off of in the backcourt.
Forwards:
4 Johnathan Williams 6-9, 228 lb: 24 mpg, 16.7 Points/40, .624 2P%, .405 3P%, 10.6 Reb/40
5 Przemek Karnowski 7-1, 300 lb: 23 mpg. 21.4 Points/40, .599 2P%, 10.0 Reb/40
Reserve Zach Collins 7-0, 230 lb: 17 mpg, 23.1 Points/40, .672 2P%, .476 3P%,13.8 Reb/40
Reserve Killian Tillie 6-10, 200 lb: 12 mpg, 14.1 Points/40, .547 2P%, .478 3P%, 10.1 Reb/40
As good as Gonzaga's guards are, their bigs rotation is even nastier. Everyone knows Karnowski, a defensive stalwart who is also a great offensive post-up option. Meeks will have his hands full as it's one of the only games all year (with the exception of Florida State) where he'll be the smaller man in his matchup. I'd expect Bradley to get more runs to help spell him.
The other Zag's bigs are unfortunately just as good. Zach Collins doesn't start but he's their most efficient player; he's just a true freshman that is being talked of as a possible one-and-done first round pick. He's an athletic 7 footer shooting 67% (!!) from 2 and 10-21 on 3's while dominating on the glass. He has played with Karnowski at times, making an extremely tough matchup for Hicks or especially the 6-7 Maye. When he doesn't go Johnathan Williams is a quick and strong stretch 4 who will give you fits on both ends. If there's any weakness up front it's that Williams and Karnowski are both poor foul shooters, making only 56% and 58% of their attempts respectively.
Bottomline: Everyone needs to own their matchups, as the Zags don't have weak links. Jackson/Pinson need to D up on Williams-Goss without help and keep him from penetrating to create offense. Our bigs need to all play like Meeks did against Oregon, winning on the boards while preventing easy inside baskets. They've got the #1 defense in the country (86.6 points per 100 possessions), so Jackson and Berry just have to be on when they get their shots. Jackson in particular they don't have a great answer for on defense, so he needs to take advantage and shine as bright as he has all season. Winning probably requires playing better than we've played in any game this tournament, but it can be done.
Guards:
PG Nigel Williams-Goss 6-3, 195 lb: 33 mpg, 20.7 Points/40, .537 2P%, .368 3P%
Wing Josh Perkins 6-3, 190 lb: 29 mpg, 11.0 Points/40, .472 2P%, .395 3P%
Wing Jordan Mathews 6-4, 203 lb: 28 mpg, 15.5 Points/40, .439 2P%, .392 3P%
Reserve Silas Melson 6-4, 195 lb: 24 mpg, 12.1 Points/40, .514 2P%, .389 3P%
The Zags have great guard depth with four experienced players that can all shoot from outside. Mathews is the best shooter with 212 attempts at 39% (Perkins is 2nd with 152 attempts). With Berry's injuries he will probably guard Perkins while Pinson/Jackson will be tasked with guarding Williams-Goss.
Williams-Goss is their top scoring guard, and while he can shoot he's best at penetrating and getting layups (54% from 2), free throws (88.4% from the line), or kicking it out to one of the other guards. He rarely turns the ball over (2.23 A/TO ratio) and generally creates most of the offense on his own drives or through entry passes to the bigs inside. Slowing him is critical and fortunately we have wings that should be up to it, as there's no one you can help off of in the backcourt.
Forwards:
4 Johnathan Williams 6-9, 228 lb: 24 mpg, 16.7 Points/40, .624 2P%, .405 3P%, 10.6 Reb/40
5 Przemek Karnowski 7-1, 300 lb: 23 mpg. 21.4 Points/40, .599 2P%, 10.0 Reb/40
Reserve Zach Collins 7-0, 230 lb: 17 mpg, 23.1 Points/40, .672 2P%, .476 3P%,13.8 Reb/40
Reserve Killian Tillie 6-10, 200 lb: 12 mpg, 14.1 Points/40, .547 2P%, .478 3P%, 10.1 Reb/40
As good as Gonzaga's guards are, their bigs rotation is even nastier. Everyone knows Karnowski, a defensive stalwart who is also a great offensive post-up option. Meeks will have his hands full as it's one of the only games all year (with the exception of Florida State) where he'll be the smaller man in his matchup. I'd expect Bradley to get more runs to help spell him.
The other Zag's bigs are unfortunately just as good. Zach Collins doesn't start but he's their most efficient player; he's just a true freshman that is being talked of as a possible one-and-done first round pick. He's an athletic 7 footer shooting 67% (!!) from 2 and 10-21 on 3's while dominating on the glass. He has played with Karnowski at times, making an extremely tough matchup for Hicks or especially the 6-7 Maye. When he doesn't go Johnathan Williams is a quick and strong stretch 4 who will give you fits on both ends. If there's any weakness up front it's that Williams and Karnowski are both poor foul shooters, making only 56% and 58% of their attempts respectively.
Bottomline: Everyone needs to own their matchups, as the Zags don't have weak links. Jackson/Pinson need to D up on Williams-Goss without help and keep him from penetrating to create offense. Our bigs need to all play like Meeks did against Oregon, winning on the boards while preventing easy inside baskets. They've got the #1 defense in the country (86.6 points per 100 possessions), so Jackson and Berry just have to be on when they get their shots. Jackson in particular they don't have a great answer for on defense, so he needs to take advantage and shine as bright as he has all season. Winning probably requires playing better than we've played in any game this tournament, but it can be done.
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