Defense

[What Would Jesus Do?]

How do you think we'll fare defensively this coming season? How about other ACC teams?

Below are Pomeroy's national defensive ankings (AdjD) for the last 5 seasons. Lower is better.

Team	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	Average
UNC	46	35	27	94	15	41.4
Virginia	25	59	36	1	5	25.2
Duke	16	49	79	12	6	32.2
Miami	99	107	116	149	104	115.0
NC State	82	246	87	79	62	111.2
FSU	239	106	33	15	10	80.6
Clemson	61	101	19	33	14	45.6
Wake	153	42	169	166	186	143.0
Syracuse	185	207	77	116	30	123.0
Notre Dame	255	69	203	100	107	146.8
Ga Tech	149	110	68	16	43	77.2
Va Tech	139	54	53	82	20	69.6
Pitt	103	147	122	91	70	106.6
Boston Coll	125	120	200	128	138	142.2
Louisville	290	114	44	30	24	100.4

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Apologies for not putting the teams in order of 5-year average ranking. I didn't know how they'd turn out when I started, and the table function doesn't make it easy to move rows around.

For those who may be wondering how Roy would fare overall in this kind of view, he was top 30 in the nation on D in 13 of his 18 seasons at UNC. Pretty impressive for an offensively oriented program.

That's 1 better than K over the same stretch.

Bennett also notches 13, but over a shorter stretch (at 2 schools), so he probably deserves the defensive crown. I'm too lazy to check all the other ACC coaches, but it won't surprise me if Roy is 2nd or darn close. Leonard Hamilton and Steve Brownell have decent D reps, too, but they aren't close (8 and 6, respectively).

 

[ChiShankCity]

We know we'll be smaller in the backcourt. We know we'll lose some at the 3 defensively whether it's Ingram or Ryan starting. And we know Bacot isn't an elite rim defender and is probably a below average ball screen defender.

I don't think we'll be all that good defensively. We might be better than last year since last year was a trainwreck. But relative to the contending teams I think defense will be a weakness for us.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Since SDung is always surprised when UNC does something well, his opinions are somewhat easy to anticipate! There is not one shred of evidence to support that we shouldn't be able to have good team D! Last year has almost nothing to do with this one even if peeps can't get over the PTSD! The snatches I saw of Washington show great potential for rim protection and rebounding. I watched both Bacot and Okonkwo stonewall peeps on the ball and I saw Bacot work his arse off to move fast enough to help on screens! I see smart wings motivated and knowledgeable enough to offset any issues with anticipation. I do see small guards but both are tough and strong and smart enough to funnel peeps to their help or to the jump! But I also see a guard that is the equivalent of Leaky in a smaller package and he can be used if others are abused. Less effective individual D at 3, well no duh since Leaky is arguably our best defensive wing ever! BUT since we now have complete buyin, the issues with having to help cover peeps who are indifferent on D shouldn't manifest! I see a coach who wants to be multiple on D and now has the peeps to pull it off. I see a team that can positively affect D through running on O; substituting frequently, knowing/accomplishing their roles, and taking pride in team success!

 

[ChiShankCity]

Since SDung is always surprised when UNC does something well, his opinions are somewhat easy to anticipate! There is not one shred of evidence to support that we shouldn't be able to have good team D! Last year has almost nothing to do with this one even if peeps can't get over the PTSD! The snatches I saw of Washington show great potential for rim protection and rebounding. I watched both Bacot and Okonkwo stonewall peeps on the ball and I saw Bacot work his arse off to move fast enough to help on screens! I see smart wings motivated and knowledgeable enough to offset any issues with anticipation. I do see small guards but both are tough and strong and smart enough to funnel peeps to their help or to the jump! But I also see a guard that is the equivalent of Leaky in a smaller package and he can be used if others are abused. Less effective individual D at 3, well no duh since Leaky is arguably our best defensive wing ever! BUT since we now have complete buyin, the issues with having to help cover peeps who are indifferent on D shouldn't manifest! I see a coach who wants to be multiple on D and now has the peeps to pull it off. I see a team that can positively affect D through running on O; substituting frequently, knowing/accomplishing their roles, and taking pride in team success!

It depends what your definition of good is. If we take last year up until the NCAA tournament (since NCAA tournament performance can skew you end of year rankings). These were how the 1-4 seeds ranked defensively (BartTorvik):

1. Houston	3rd in D-Eff	2. UCLA	4th in D-Eff	3. Gonzaga	83rd in D-Eff	4. Tenn	1st in D-Eff
1. Alabama	4th in D-Eff	2. Arizona	42nd in Deff	3. Baylor	95th in D-Eff	4. UConn	15th in D-Eff
1. Kansas	11th in D-Eff	2. Texas	12th in D-Eff	3. Xavier	80th in Deff	4. Virginia	27th in D-Eff
1. Purdue	17th in D-Eff	2. Marq	47th in D-Eff	3. Kansas St	21st in D-Eff	4. Indiana	45th in D-Eff

33 of the last 38 National Champions were 1, 2, or 3 seeds (24 were 1 seeds). So, most years, a 1-3 seed will win the National Title (I know UConn was a 4). I did a rough search of past 1-3 seeds and one season typically gets 1 team that's in that 70 or worse defensive efficiency ranking. Looks like last year was a bit of a fluke with three 3-seeds that were pretty bad defensively. So I think it's more likely we will rank somewhere in the 30's as a team for defense. Which would be on the bottom end for 1-3 seeds in most years. I personally see us more as a 4-5 seed anyways.

I can't really respond to your individual players analysis because everything is anecdotal. I will go off past data from Bacot. It's a substantial sample size at this point. He's been an above average rim defender in all 4 years. Will he improve a ton? Maybe. But I don't see the reason why he would improve leaps and bounds this offseason, opposed to say... the previous offseasons? Okonkwo is a legit rim defender, but we'll have to see how much he actually plays. I have no idea how to project that Cadeau and RJ will be great at "funneling" their opponents to help. Are they going to be good at this just because they play at UNC? I don't get it.

I think we had a better defensive team on paper last year. But I think being much better offensively this year will help our defense this year. But I think we're going to have to beat teams offensively. Which has kind of been a UNC theme for the last 20 years or so. Not a ton of UNC teams that are known for winning games 55-50. We'll need to score it efficiently to win.

And I get it @TPFKAPFS. You think we're going to be great. I think we're going to be good, not great. Sorry for being so pessimistic, lol.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

OK, I'll admit that this is finally a less strident and more reasoned discussion of D. I agree that it hasn't been the top priority in the past, but it is clear that Hubs does things his way! He appears to me to want a better balance with the ability to play different types of games. I expect our guards to be good at funneling because, as we all agree, they are smart and coachable! AND they have both been undersized their whole lives and any baller knows how to push peeps toward their help or to where they are coached IF they have high IQ! I have no idea where the line between "above average" and "elite" is with respect to Bacot's rim protection, but I SAW him completely frustrate some pretty high level bigs! Of course, there is a slim chance that all of the bad things we saw last year will recur, but there is also a chance that a meteor will hit the Dean Dome so who cares! Of course, my discussion is anecdotal for several reasons like:
1. I believe in my eyes more than metrics that are often mystifying. (I coached for decades no matter what peeps believe about me)
2. They have never played together, and some have never played in college.
3. Nobody plays D on paper, so I trust what I see on the court!
4. Intangibles matter as much or more than measurables! (Camaraderie, pride, attitude, Fit, versatility, coachability, concern for teammates and the team, cohesion, joy, etc)
5. I always think UNC will be great, but I think we are building toward a special multi-year run!

BTW: SDung seems to be a statistician but I can't understand how the body of work I read on here is supposed to add up to = UNC will be good???? My qualitative analysis of posts indicates he believes we will be on par with last year!

GDTBATH!

 

[DSouthr]

"In this question of how good will our defense be I don't think there is a right or wrong answer, it is and can be nothing but opinions until the games are played and we see. I think our defense will be really good thou missing what to me may be the best tool of a great defense, a strong shot blocking presence in the paint, those guys hide a lot of mistakes of others. It does concern me that so many want us to play smaller than we need to with our starting rotation. As is oft asked, who do you start at the 3, do you start a smallish 3 or a bigger yet still very talented guy, I start the guy with size in Ingram at the 3 and bring Ryan off the bench for starter level minutes coming from the 2 and the 3.

I am looking at starting 6'11" 245 Bacot, 6'8-9"s Withers, and 6'7" 225lbs Ingram: all great size and physical strength for position as well as all noted + defenders. I think the effect on defense is really seen in defensive rebounding numbers such that limit the other teams possession numbers and increase our own. You have heard the old saying "sometimes your best defense is a good offense"? Well the other end is just as worthy that sometimes a your best offense is a great defense". Getting that defensive rebound many times, I think especially so with Cadeau tends to get us out running for easier scores. That tends to get the other team in a deep hole where they can panic and try to get that margin closed typically by risky shooting, bad shots and that great size advantage feeds our defensive rebounding which feeds our running game, wash and repeat.

UNC has a really experienced group, really seasoned guys that were former team captains at other programs (as well as our own). Those guys are effort guys that show up as defenders more so than younger teams get. We may have the best back court defender in the country in Seth,, while not the explosive shot blocker Bacot is a very strong individual defender with his size and strength and 4yrs of experience as a starter for us under his belt, makes him a extremely effective defender, put Ingram in that really effective defender role as well.

Felt like we had 2 real defensive problems last season, one being we were physically weak at the 4 spot with Jalen coming off knee injury and Nance just was not the guy, at east out of the 4 spot. The other issue, Caleb, while very able to defend at a very high rate his head did not seem to be there on the defensive end, didn't always compete like we need our multi year starter at the 2, he is now gone. RJ may be smaller but he does compete on both ends. And speaking of Jalen, he is now just about to that 2yr mark from his last surgery and has put on as best I can guess around 10-15lbs from the way his body seems to have filled out. This kid could actually become that shot blocking threat I referred to with that 7'5" reach and what I think is solid timing. Much of what I saw from him showed me he simply was not in basketball condition to play for much more than about 3min at a time, I suspect that is no longer the case.

So yeah, I do think our defense will be improved, I actually think it will be improved by a lot but we will have to wait and see.

 

[ChiShankCity]

@TPFKAPFS I’m not a statistician. But I look at numbers to see if my theories are right/wrong/ somewhere in between. I’m sure I look for particular numbers to back up my argument but I think data is more objective than eyes. Because eyes differ from people to people. Not saying data is 100% objective. But I think it’s better than the eye test.

Bacot’s block percentage was 4.3 last year. Pretty average-above average. Maybe it’s unfair to take his lack of shot blocking and equate that to rim defense. But from what I see… Bacot isn’t a shutdown interior defender. And he isn’t a good ball screen defender. When you combine lack of rim defense with our smaller backcourt (and potential 3), I think it’s fair to ask whether our lack of rim defense will translate well with that.

I’m more bullish on Ingram as an individual defender. He’s a below the rim player. Doesn’t have the bounce or “wiggle” that other athletic 3’s have. So I think he will struggle against some 3’s. And if he plays 4, he will obviously be at a height disadvantage against some 4’s. But that’s what my subjective eyes say.

I think it will be a misfit combo on defense regardless of the starting lineup. RJ can be hunted. If Ryan starts at the 3, he’ll be hunted. If Ingram isn’t a good individual defender, he can be hunted. And you can always put Bacot in a ball screen. Also, I don’t know how Cadeau is defensively. But if the Jason Kidd comparisons are true, I should expect a plus defender.

Also, I think we sucked last year. So I think we’ll be better this year. My prediction is a 4’ish seed second weekend exit. But if there’s some chaos in their bracket, they can go farther. I thought we sucked last year so I’m not seeing a repeat performance. If that happens (and we stayed relatively healthy), changes need to be made on the sideline.

Overall defensively, I think our metrics will be better than last year because our offense will hep our defense much more. But relative to contending teams, I don’t think our defense will be all that good. If that makes sense.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Here's a look at the defensive rating - DRtg - from last year. The sports-reference.com site defines DRtg as "an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions." So lower is better.

I'm sure there's a formula but if it's anything like the formula for ORtg, I probably wouldn't understand it. Maybe someone else can explain it.

Shock #1 is that Seth Trimble rates worse than our other returning players. How is that possible?

I've also included our departed players for comparison purposes, along with MPG so we can make appropriate adjustments.

Player	MPG	Defensive Rating (DRtg)
This Year's Players (2023-24)
Paxson Wojcik	34.6	98.5
Armando Bacot	30.3	99.3
James Okonkwo	11.0	100.4
Jalen Washington	5.7	102.0
RJ Davis	34.9	102.9
Harrison Ingram	27.9	104.1
Seth Trimble	9.8	104.5
Cormac Ryan	33.9	110.6
Jae'lyn Withers	25.0	111.1
Departed Players (2022-23)
Leaky Black	32.1	99.5
Justin McKoy	5.4	101.1
Pete Nance	30.1	101.9
Puff Johnson	16.0	103.0
Caleb Love	35.7	104.5
Will Shaver	2.0	104.6
D'Marco Dunn	10.2	105.1
Dontrez Styles	5.9	105.4
Tyler Nickel	6.0	106.1

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

If DRtg is worth anything, our best defensive lineup (not including freshmen) from those who played meaningful minutes last year would be

RJ
Cormac
Paxson
Harrison
Armando

It's hard to imagine our best defensive team without Trimble, but he missed the cut on MPG.

Frankly I think that would be a pretty solid team. Maybe not a contender, but tough and savvy.

BTW, if that 5 played all 40 minutes and scored the same as last season, they'd rack up 86.2 points per game. In the Roy era, that would be a contender.

I won't be surprised to see that lineup on the floor for a few minutes a game, and I expect to enjoy watching them play.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

I think this proves my point about these advanced metrics. There is no way on Earth that Paxson is a better defender than Leaky and neither is Bacot! (I do think Bacot is a dadgum good on-ball defender though) Seth is a better defender than indicated and it is obvious! Leaky, and to some extent all of our potential players, suffered from having teammates who either were unsuited or unwilling to play good on-ball OR team D! None of them are playing on the teams they played with before so I do not think the numbers predict future success well! MY eyes see them as individuals who really want to be and have the tools to be good-great defenders! Bacot and Leaky especially suffered from having to cover for mistakes and then recover when rotations were too slow! I expect to see much improvement and I expect to see our O help our D much more!

 

[DSouthr]

Here's a look at the defensive rating - DRtg - from last year. The sports-reference.com site defines DRtg as "an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions." So lower is better.

I'm sure there's a formula but if it's anything like the formula for ORtg, I probably wouldn't understand it. Maybe someone else can explain it.

Shock #1 is that Seth Trimble rates worse than our other returning players. How is that possible?

I've also included our departed players for comparison purposes, along with MPG so we can make appropriate adjustments.

Player	MPG	Defensive Rating (DRtg)
This Year's Players (2023-24)
Paxson Wojcik	34.6	98.5
Armando Bacot	30.3	99.3
James Okonkwo	11.0	100.4
Jalen Washington	5.7	102.0
RJ Davis	34.9	102.9
Harrison Ingram	27.9	104.1
Seth Trimble	9.8	104.5
Cormac Ryan	33.9	110.6
Jae'lyn Withers	25.0	111.1
Departed Players (2022-23)
Leaky Black	32.1	99.5
Justin McKoy	5.4	101.1
Pete Nance	30.1	101.9
Puff Johnson	16.0	103.0
Caleb Love	35.7	104.5
Will Shaver	2.0	104.6
D'Marco Dunn	10.2	105.1
Dontrez Styles	5.9	105.4
Tyler Nickel	6.0	106.1

Sorry but I can't help laugh, if I just look at these numbers Withers can't guard a statue, Paxson is a total glove on defense, and Seth is less of a defender than RJ? Come on now, you know that is bull to the extent of being out right funny. Never mind the fact that this stat tries to pluck out individual defense in a team sport it doesn't reflect for example that Louisville was a awful team in about every aspect, just as one example. Clearly to use a stat like this to suggest there was anyone on our team last season or the guys coming in that were any where close to the level of individual defender Seth was whose name was not Leaky Black fails before it starts, not like Seth was guarding Ivy League players for most of his minutes. Look at the ratings for Seth as compared to Will Shaver, virtually the same, OH REALLY? LOL

The problem I have with things like this is that stats are great but when people have a pre-determined out come already in place and then go looking for any and every stat that may in some spun manner validate their pre-concieved out come the stats themselves lose meaning. Most common example, shooting %, while on it's face may seem like a great stat, does it reflect that RJ shot the ball way better when his fingers were not taped together, how about the effect sprained ankles had on Bacot's shooting, or Jalen who was coming back from that knee? No but you watch the games and you see those issues clearly. Raw stats are fine as long as they are not viewed with an out come already pre-determined. Did anyone need a stat to show that Caleb took way to many bad shots or that Leaky should not have been taking treys, do stats show you why that was the case? I watched the games, you watched the games, you already know what happened the real question is why it happened, so tell me what stat explains that?

 

[ChiShankCity]

If DRtg is worth anything, our best defensive lineup (not including freshmen) from those who played meaningful minutes last year would be

RJ
Cormac
Paxson
Harrison
Armando

It's hard to imagine our best defensive team without Trimble, but he missed the cut on MPG.

Frankly I think that would be a pretty solid team. Maybe not a contender, but tough and savvy.

BTW, if that 5 played all 40 minutes and scored the same as last season, they'd rack up 86.2 points per game. In the Roy era, that would be a contender.

I won't be surprised to see that lineup on the floor for a few minutes a game, and I expect to enjoy watching them play.

Individual DRtg means very little to me unless you have lineup data. Individual defense can be harder to quantify and the data isn't as available for college as it is in the NBA. In the NBA, you can find one-on-one defensive stats pretty easily. Harder to find reliable ones (for free) in college. To group individual DRtg is a mistake IMO. It tells you very little without any context of lineup data.

I think this proves my point about these advanced metrics. There is no way on Earth that Paxson is a better defender than Leaky and neither is Bacot! (I do think Bacot is a dadgum good on-ball defender though) Seth is a better defender than indicated and it is obvious! Leaky, and to some extent all of our potential players, suffered from having teammates who either were unsuited or unwilling to play good on-ball OR team D! None of them are playing on the teams they played with before so I do not think the numbers predict future success well! MY eyes see them as individuals who really want to be and have the tools to be good-great defenders! Bacot and Leaky especially suffered from having to cover for mistakes and then recover when rotations were too slow! I expect to see much improvement and I expect to see our O help our D much more!

I know you're generally going to be really optimistic about UNC basketball. I just have a hard time believing that RJ, Bacot were good defenders, then we had a plus plus wing defender in Leaky last year and were still pretty poor defensively relative to the teams that were at-large tournament teams.

It doesn't make too much sense to me that we had a really good on-ball defensive center, an elite defensive wing, and a super smart player in RJ and were what we were defensively last year. Plus, you add Seth being a plus defender in the limited role he played... I question why we weren't significantly better defensively last year.

I agree that an improved offense will make our defense better. I'm just having a hard time with how many good, or smart, players we had last year, yet were so mediocre defensively.

 

[gary-7]

How do you think we'll fare defensively this coming season? How about other ACC teams?

I immediately tuned out as soon as I saw "kenpom", but I'll offer a take on your question:
Our defensive performance will depend on the staff's commitment (or lack thereof) to be multiple this season.

 

[DSouthr]

Individual DRtg means very little to me unless you have lineup data. Individual defense can be harder to quantify and the data isn't as available for college as it is in the NBA. In the NBA, you can find one-on-one defensive stats pretty easily. Harder to find reliable ones (for free) in college. To group individual DRtg is a mistake IMO. It tells you very little without any context of lineup data.


I know you're generally going to be really optimistic about UNC basketball. I just have a hard time believing that RJ, Bacot were good defenders, then we had a plus plus wing defender in Leaky last year and were still pretty poor defensively relative to the teams that were at-large tournament teams.

It doesn't make too much sense to me that we had a really good on-ball defensive center, an elite defensive wing, and a super smart player in RJ and were what we were defensively last year. Plus, you add Seth being a plus defender in the limited role he played... I question why we weren't significantly better defensively last year.

I agree that an improved offense will make our defense better. I'm just having a hard time with how many good, or smart, players we had last year, yet were so mediocre defensively.

"It doesn't make too much sense to me that we had a really good on-ball defensive center, an elite defensive wing, and a super smart player in RJ and were what we were defensively last year. Plus, you add Seth being a plus defender in the limited role he played... I question why we weren't significantly better defensively last year."

Why were we not better defensively, several reasons. Bacot with good wheels is a solid defender for the position but when he was dealing with ankle sprains it made it a loot harder for him. Caleb defended well when he wanted to, problem was he didn't really want to often. And bless RJ's heart but he really struggled to stay in front of driving PG even without a rub. Witness that when Seth came in the game, most often it was either at the 2 or the 3 but who did Seth guard on defense, the opposing PG. LOL Add in that Nance defending outside the paint was for the most part worthless. Then consider how few minutes guys off the bench got, Puff got decent minutes but he just never added weight or strength while at UNC, he actually LOST 2lbs coming in to last season, if you are a bean pole you sure don't need to lose any of the beans you now have. None of that even touches on the other team pretty much knows what we were doing defensively, they did when Dean coached as well thou Dean did use multiple defenses, difference we EXECUTED team defense when Dean coached, for me we have not done that since Den retired. I really did not think Roy was a great defensive coach, others may disagree but that is my opinion, Roy may have got more effort on that end with some of his teams than we have seen last couple years but Roy's teams effort level was not great his last couple seasons as head coach.

 

[ChiShankCity]

I immediately tuned out as soon as I saw "kenpom", but I'll offer a take on your question:
Our defensive performance will depend on the staff's commitment (or lack thereof) to be multiple this season.

When is the last time our defense was "multiple"? And multiple organically, not just because our PG1 or C1 gets into foul trouble?

Also, a gigantic question mark to me whether we have the horses to be multiple. I don't see a ton of defensive flexibility on our team. We're old and that's great, but we have a bunch of 6'0" - 6'4" guys and not a ton of 6'6" - 6'9" guys. I think that makes it difficult being multiple.

Why were we not better defensively, several reasons. Bacot with good wheels is a solid defender for the position but when he was dealing with ankle sprains it made it a loot harder for him. Caleb defended well when he wanted to, problem was he didn't really want to often. And bless RJ's heart but he really struggled to stay in front of driving PG even without a rub. Witness that when Seth came in the game, most often it was either at the 2 or the 3 but who did Seth guard on defense, the opposing PG. LOL Add in that Nance defending outside the paint was for the most part worthless. Then consider how few minutes guys off the bench got, Puff got decent minutes but he just never added weight or strength while at UNC, he actually LOST 2lbs coming in to last season, if you are a bean pole you sure don't need to lose any of the beans you now have. None of that even touches on the other team pretty much knows what we were doing defensively, they did when Dean coached as well thou Dean did use multiple defenses, difference we EXECUTED team defense when Dean coached, for me we have not done that since Den retired. I really did not think Roy was a great defensive coach, others may disagree but that is my opinion, Roy may have got more effort on that end with some of his teams than we have seen last couple years but Roy's teams effort level was not great his last couple seasons as head coach.

UNC fans always theorize how multiple we can be defensively whenever we have a pretty deep team on paper. This has happened for every Roy deep team that I can remember. But in the end, we play the same man-to-man principles. We play the 2-3 zone only in special situations (PG1 or C1 in foul trouble, or defending underneath the basket inbounds). And occasionally, we mix in the run-and-jump... Which I don't think is an overall positive. I kind of think we do that just to keep tradition alive. I know that sounds weird.

Also, does this team have the players to pick up 94 feet? Maybe an individual player or 2 can? Does this team have the personnel to throw in a 2-3 zone? It probably can't be with a 6'1" and a 6'0" starting backcourt.

In the end, I think our defense will be ok, not spectacular, and not as good as the majority of top 4 seeds as long as our offense is efficient. If our offense isn't efficient, I don't think we'll be particularly good defensively.

But I'll be interested to see what Hubert's defensive principals are. I hope it's different than Roy's philosophy.

 

[DSouthr]

When is the last time our defense was "multiple"? And multiple organically, not just because our PG1 or C1 gets into foul trouble?

Also, a gigantic question mark to me whether we have the horses to be multiple. I don't see a ton of defensive flexibility on our team. We're old and that's great, but we have a bunch of 6'0" - 6'4" guys and not a ton of 6'6" - 6'9" guys. I think that makes it difficult being multiple.


UNC fans always theorize how multiple we can be defensively whenever we have a pretty deep team on paper. This has happened for every Roy deep team that I can remember. But in the end, we play the same man-to-man principles. We play the 2-3 zone only in special situations (PG1 or C1 in foul trouble, or defending underneath the basket inbounds). And occasionally, we mix in the run-and-jump... Which I don't think is an overall positive. I kind of think we do that just to keep tradition alive. I know that sounds weird.

Also, does this team have the players to pick up 94 feet? Maybe an individual player or 2 can? Does this team have the personnel to throw in a 2-3 zone? It probably can't be with a 6'1" and a 6'0" starting backcourt.

In the end, I think our defense will be ok, not spectacular, and not as good as the majority of top 4 seeds as long as our offense is efficient. If our offense isn't efficient, I don't think we'll be particularly good defensively.

But I'll be interested to see what Hubert's defensive principals are. I hope it's different than Roy's philosophy.

Well then you see why Roy never really impressed me as a defensive coach. Roy's strength as a coach, my opinion, was he always seemed to have good big men at the 4 and 5 and worked them hard to own the defensive and offensive boards, and his fast pace run run run tempo on the offensive end.

Does this team have the players to pick up full court? LOL Well of course they do, they did last season, it is a matter of teaching them and keeping fresh legs in, it is really not complicated? So far, sorry to say it but Hubert looks a lot like Roy on the defensive end with less size around the basket to get boards. I have been screaming for us to change that, drives me crazy to see an opposing PG casually able to walk the ball up court and we not pick him up until he gets to about the top of the key? I am all about token pressure mixed with hard full court trapping that really all the opposing PG can think about is getting it past half court. I want the opposing PG both mentally and physically worn down as the game gets deep.

 

[ChiShankCity]

I'm personally not a fan of going full court, especially against less talented opposition. I know that sounds counter to what everyone says, but if you have the better team, I would rather force the opposition to beat you in the halfcourt and not bring in a lot of variance through full court pressing.

Getting steals is not something UNC coaches or emphasizes during practice. Since 2008, we've ranked in the top 100 twice in opponent turnover percentage. It isn't something we do well and I'm guessing it isn't something we practice well. The last two years, we've ranked in the 300's in that. It's something we don't do. It's something that's not in our DNA.

Also, full court pressing leads to more 3PT attempts. And I'm firmly against that. IMO, your defense needs to be structured towards:
1. Not allowing layups/dunks. Which is why rim defense is really important.
2. Not fouling and allowing fewer FTA
3. Defending the 3. Allowing fewer attempts.

I also disagree we have the horses to pick up full court with this team. Just because we have depth on paper, doesn't mean we have impactful players who can stress an offense 94 feet. I'll have to see it from Cadeau. I think RJ is absolutely not one of those defenders. I don't think Ingram or Ryan are either. And I don't think Bacot is a good enough rim protector when that press is broken either.

 

[gary-7]

When is the last time our defense was "multiple"? And multiple organically, not just because our PG1 or C1 gets into foul trouble?

Also, a gigantic question mark to me whether we have the horses to be multiple. I don't see a ton of defensive flexibility on our team. We're old and that's great, but we have a bunch of 6'0" - 6'4" guys and not a ton of 6'6" - 6'9" guys. I think that makes it difficult being multiple.

First, we 100% have the personnel for it. In fact, our personnel situation screams for it. We have a small-but-ultra-quick backcourt who are ideal for Scrambles, which can also cover for RJ being a weak on-ball defender and hopefuly help keep EC outta foul trouble. On that note, some strategic use of Zone would do nicely as well. And our Bigs are quite mobile, which makes trapping all the more effective.

Second, we were multiple under Roy, albeit not enough for my preference. Hubert should look back to Dean for that.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Sorry but I can't help laugh, if I just look at these numbers Withers can't guard a statue, Paxson is a total glove on defense, and Seth is less of a defender than RJ? Come on now, you know that is bull to the extent of being out right funny.

This is how I feel about ORtg, too, a lot of the time. Are there better measures that aren't behind pay walls?

The idea of a measure that shows how many points you give up, on average, per 100 possessions certainly sounds like a reasonable measure. It should probably be corrected for strength of schedule and whether you are getting prime time minutes or scrub minutes. But other than that, it seems reasonable.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I also disagree we have the horses to pick up full court with this team. Just because we have depth on paper, doesn't mean we have impactful players who can stress an offense 94 feet. I'll have to see it from Cadeau. I think RJ is absolutely not one of those defenders. I don't think Ingram or Ryan are either. And I don't think Bacot is a good enough rim protector when that press is broken either.

I'm not seeing a particularly quick lineup. Cadeau may make a difference, in the sense that maybe we're quicker than we look IF we have a PG who pushes it harder and more effectively. We'll see.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Following up on the Strength of Schedule thought, here are the overall SOS scores and rankings for the schools our players played for last season.

School	Player(s)	SOS score	SOS rank
West Virginia	Okonkwo	+12.45	5
UNC	RJ, Armando, Seth, Jaylen	+7.8	50
Stanford	Ingram	+7.59	54
Louisville	Withers	+6.19	70
Notre Dame	Ryan	+3.34	99
Brown	Wojcik	-1.91	197

 

[dtodd4475]

Plenty of good points and possibilities. RJ plays hard on dee, but he was hunted quite often by teams and took a physical beating at times. Hopefully he is a bit stronger on ball so he does not have to throw his body in front quite as often when beat.

I also agree that Mando and Washington did not move laterally very well. Teams will try to "put them in the wash" with pick and rolls Hopefully Caudea and RJ can fight over the screens and stay on ball.

I also think Ingram is going to be asked to do an awful lot defensively.

Going to be interesting to see how that side of the ball develops for sure.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

We absolutely have the horses to run; play full court; and to especially play zone! What does the size of our guards have to do with zone defense? Bacot is a good on-ball defender but it is obvious that bad wheels impact him at times! RJ has improved as a defender every year he has been a Tar Heel. I could go on, but why since we will see soon enough!

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

We absolutely have the horses to run; play full court; and to especially play zone! What does the size of our guards have to do with zone defense? Bacot is a good on-ball defender but it is obvious that bad wheels impact him at times! RJ has improved as a defender every year he has been a Tar Heel. I could go on, but why since we will se soon enough!

Will Hubert play any zone? Did he last season? I need our gurus to answer that because if we did go zone much (or at all) last season, I failed to notice. But I'm not knowledgeable enough to know for sure.

I agree about RJ. He's not a top defender, but he's seldom a liability - which he sometimes was, and glaringly so, in his first 2 seasons. I still cringe at memories of him futilely chasing after his man when he was a freshman. Haven't seen that for a while. Still short, though.

I imagine being short at 1-3 (Cadeau, RJ, Cormac) would make it hard to defend teams with good outside shooting from a zone.

I wonder if the new guy at Syracuse will play zone. Could be the end of an era.

Who else plays zone in the ACC?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

We absolutely have the horses to run

While I don't think we are a particularly quick team, if Cadeau lives up to his hype and if our new guys can shoot well enough to space the floor, we might be a lot quicker than I'm giving us cretit for.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

2 things:
1. I don't think Cormac will start and Ingram isn't short or weak
2. Being short does not prevent you from disrupting a shooter in a zone

EC, RJ, Ingram, Withers, Bacot = maximize rebounding, ball movement, shooting etc without giving up size/strength. Rebounding IS part of defense and I expect us to get back to UNC type rebounding.

You cannot play zone without some serious practice time on zone defense. With everything swirling around the program and the simple fact that getting them on the same page on O was difficult, I expect the practice time focused on other things! Shooters rely on rhythm and sight lines as much as anything else. Getting up under them and, for example, not letting them feel comfortable with the catch, a bounce, or bringing the ball down will disrupt a shooter. Rare shooters can actually shoot over someone who is in good position and has active hands or knows how to use his lower body but they are few! + there is more than one type of zone. If we have a long player killing it over our smalls we can go to an odd front-1-3-1 or 3-2 to bring a longer player up front! But honestly, good in your face team man D with some tweaks like picking up at different levels and mixing in some scramble/jumps will suffice to me.

 

[ChiShankCity]

We absolutely have the horses to run; play full court; and to especially play zone! What does the size of our guards have to do with zone defense? Bacot is a good on-ball defender but it is obvious that bad wheels impact him at times! RJ has improved as a defender every year he has been a Tar Heel. I could go on, but why since we will see soon enough!

Length isn't important to a zone? Especially if it's not our primary defense, meaning we won't be practicing it a lot so our zone isn't going to be as intricate as Boeheim's Cuse teams since that's all they practiced. I think it's absolutely important to have some size/length at the top 2 of a 2-3 zone. If you don't, teams can just shoot over it.

And we traditionally do not defend 3's at a particularly high level. I'm very skeptical of being more exposed to 3PA allowed on defense. Also, we traditionally value defensive rebounding. If you do, typically you don't run zone because that's a primary weakness of a zone.

I'm sure we'll run it in situations. We generally do defending underneath the basket inbounds. Cadeau will have a game or two where he's in foul trouble and we have to learn how to manage that while he's on the floor. But I don't see zone as a weapon for us. IMO, it goes against our main defensive value which is defensive rebounding. Not necessarily actually playing good defense, lol.

First, we 100% have the personnel for it. In fact, our personnel situation screams for it. We have a small-but-ultra-quick backcourt who are ideal for Scrambles, which can also cover for RJ being a weak on-ball defender and hopefuly help keep EC outta foul trouble. On that note, some strategic use of Zone would do nicely as well. And our Bigs are quite mobile, which makes trapping all the more effective.

Second, we were multiple under Roy, albeit not enough for my preference. Hubert should look back to Dean for that.

I disagree that we have the personnel to press. Hubert and Roy has never valued turning the opposing team over. We also lack long, bouncy 6'6"-6'9" dudes on the roster. Ingram has the dimensions, but I don't think he's overly bouncy or sudden. I don't think we fit the bill for it. Might be wrong, but we don't have a ton of length, bounce, suddenness on this roster IMO.

I also challenge we were multiple under Roy. How were we multiple? We were a man-to-man team unless our PG1 got into foul trouble where we played some zone. We zoned against underneath the basket inbounds. And we did the run-and-jump like 3 possessions per game unless we were losing late. How were we multiple under Roy? We certainly weren't multiple during the normal flow of a game.

I don't know how multiple this current unit can be. I'll reiterate this. I think the best chance for this current group to be really solid defensively is to be really freaking good offensively. Our players aren't natural "guard your yard" type dudes. And our program isn't one that loves winning games 55-50. We haven't been built like that for the last 20 years.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Running on O and individual quickness are two very different things. + I don't get where the idea that our guys are so slow comes from????? The slowest guy for his position in my projected lineup is Ingram and he is smart/experienced enough to offset pure footspeed with anticipation/positioning/understanding rotations! Bacot certainly isn't slow for a 5 (end to end) and Withers runs like a gazelle so.....

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Can you read dude? I didn't say length is unimportant; I said small guards CAN play well in a zone! AND I further said, most peeps can't simply shoot over someone even if they are taller due to may factors. I also said if there is someone on the other team that CAN shoot over our guards, we can play a different zone! I'll add that there is also such a thing as a zone press that doesn't require every player to be Speedy Gonzalez BUT like all zones it does require smart peeps to play their roles! Ideally it would be great for everyone on the team to be 6'9" or taller with super speed, hulk-like leaping ability, and guard skills but.....

BTW: Can we stop talking about what is "typical" out of one side of our mouths and complaining about Hubs doing things his way out of the other! DES and Roy ain't walking through that door so let's learn to love what we actually have, not what we used to have like there is only one way to play ball! {keep the 2ndary (hopefully) and Carolina Way (definitely), but everything else is up to you Hubs!}

 

[ChiShankCity]

Can you read dude? I didn't say length is unimportant; I said small guards CAN play well in a zone! AND I further said, most peeps can't simply shoot over someone even if they are taller due to may factors. I also said if there is someone on the other team that CAN shoot over our guards, we can play a different zone! I'll add that there is also such a thing as a zone press that doesn't require every player to be Speedy Gonzalez BUT like all zones it does require smart peeps to play their roles! Ideally it would be great for everyone on the team to be 6'9" or taller with super speed, hulk-like leaping ability, and guard skills but.....

BTW: Can we stop talking about what is "typical" out of one side of our mouths and complaining about Hubs doing things his way out of the other! DES and Roy ain't walking through that door so let's learn to love what we actually have, not what we used to have like there is only one way to play ball! {keep the 2ndary (hopefully) and Carolina Way (definitely), but everything else is up to you Hubs!}

I didn't see your part about the other zones. I think you posted it while I was writing mine.

Regardless, I'm not a fan of zone because it exploits your perimeter defense. And others will disagree but I think a big part of 3PT defense is limiting the number of 3PT attempts you allow. Also, zone defense slows a game down. Doesn't everyone want this team to play 80 possessions/game next year?

 

[gary-7]

Length isn't important to a zone? Especially if it's not our primary defense, meaning we won't be practicing it a lot so our zone isn't going to be as intricate as Boeheim's Cuse teams since that's all they practiced. I think it's absolutely important to have some size/length at the top 2 of a 2-3 zone. If you don't, teams can just shoot over it.

And we traditionally do not defend 3's at a particularly high level. I'm very skeptical of being more exposed to 3PA allowed on defense. Also, we traditionally value defensive rebounding. If you do, typically you don't run zone because that's a primary weakness of a zone.

I'm sure we'll run it in situations. We generally do defending underneath the basket inbounds. Cadeau will have a game or two where he's in foul trouble and we have to learn how to manage that while he's on the floor. But I don't see zone as a weapon for us. IMO, it goes against our main defensive value which is defensive rebounding. Not necessarily actually playing good defense, lol.


I disagree that we have the personnel to press. Hubert and Roy has never valued turning the opposing team over. We also lack long, bouncy 6'6"-6'9" dudes on the roster. Ingram has the dimensions, but I don't think he's overly bouncy or sudden. I don't think we fit the bill for it. Might be wrong, but we don't have a ton of length, bounce, suddenness on this roster IMO.

I also challenge we were multiple under Roy. How were we multiple? We were a man-to-man team unless our PG1 got into foul trouble where we played some zone. We zoned against underneath the basket inbounds. And we did the run-and-jump like 3 possessions per game unless we were losing late. How were we multiple under Roy? We certainly weren't multiple during the normal flow of a game.

I don't know how multiple this current unit can be. I'll reiterate this. I think the best chance for this current group to be really solid defensively is to be really freaking good offensively. Our players aren't natural "guard your yard" type dudes. And our program isn't one that loves winning games 55-50. We haven't been built like that for the last 20 years.

Not to be flippant, but have you actually watched UNC basketball?

First, while Roy became less multiple over time, he nonetheless employed variations of 30 and 40 Scrambles and some Zone --- at various times using the Point Zone, the extended 1-3-1 (very effectively), and a (ugh) 2-3 later in his tenure. Again, he became less multiple over time, and that, TBH, was to his detrimemt.

Winning the last Natty in 2017 playing mostly 22 (and fewer Scrambles), he took the wrong lesson from that and got stubborn. Fact is. that '17 team was unique in their ability to be an excellent Man group --- but it's not every year you have a Joel Berry and Theo Pinson to set the tone.

And finally, if you don't think we have Scramble personnel now, welp... again, I'm wondering if you're aware of how our defenses are actually constructed.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Withers runs like a gazelle

I'm hoping he's our next Tyler Zeller/Justin Jackson on that measure.

Catch and finish after streaking up the court.

It's one of the reasons I previously listed him as a starter.

 

[ChiShankCity]

Not to be flippant, but have you actually watched UNC basketball?

First, while Roy became less multiple over time, he nonetheless employed variations of 30 and 40 Scrambles and some Zone --- at various times using the Point Zone, the extended 1-3-1 (very effectively), and a (ugh) 2-3 later in his tenure. Again, he became less multiple over time, and that, TBH, was to his detrimemt.

Winning the last Natty in 2017 playing mostly 22 (and fewer Scrambles), he took the wrong lesson from that and got stubborn. Fact is. that '17 team was unique in their ability to be an excellent Man group --- but it's not every year you have a Joel Berry and Theo Pinson to set the tone.

And finally, if you don't think we have Scramble personnel now, welp... again, I'm wondering if you're aware of how our defrenses are actually constructed.

I mean this is how I saw Roy's defense.

Base 22 - Where he denies passing lanes out a little bit past the hash mark. I think it'd be generous to call it a true 22 but that was the base. That's going to be our base defense. When we sucked at defending 3's, we changed to a 21 defense where we wouldn't stretch our M2M. Joel Berry was quoted on this defensive change in 2018.

The occasional 32/42 and only going 3/4 or full court when we were losing or special situations... Maybe out of an occasional timeout. I didn't see a whole lot of zone myself apart from certain situations that became pretty predictable. Hubert actually zoned 12% of possessions in 2021-22, but I think that was more because we were so bad defensively in our base.

Apart from multiple, I'm more interested how we defend ball screens anyway. Do we do the traditional hedge, which I don't think is advantageous. Do you do drop coverage more? Depends on the opponent. Do you (gulp) switch? How do we defend wing ball screens?

 

[gary-7]

I mean this is how I saw Roy's defense.

Base 22 - Where he denies passing lanes out a little bit past the hash mark. I think it'd be generous to call it a true 22 but that was the base. That's going to be our base defense. When we sucked at defending 3's, we changed to a 21 defense where we wouldn't stretch our M2M. Joel Berry was quoted on this defensive change in 2018.

The occasional 32/42 and only going 3/4 or full court when we were losing or special situations... Maybe out of an occasional timeout. I didn't see a whole lot of zone myself apart from certain situations that became pretty predictable. Hubert actually zoned 12% of possessions in 2021-22, but I think that was more because we were so bad defensively in our base.

Apart from multiple, I'm more interested how we defend ball screens anyway. Do we do the traditional hedge, which I don't think is advantageous. Do you do drop coverage more? Depends on the opponent. Do you (gulp) switch? How do we defend wing ball screens?

Again, Roy got indeed less multiple over time, but during his tenure he did in fact employ everything I mentioned, so to say he wasn't multiple is inaccurate.

With that said, you are correct that we got predictable, and Roy got so he would abandon variations if they didn't produce immediate results.

Going back to '17,. that team wasn't built for extended Scrambles, but was really solid in 20 schemes. Jackson had turned himself into a much-improved defender at the 3 and Meeks was highly underrated as an inside-the-arcs post defender ---as long as he didn't have to chase a Strech around, big KM could hold his mud with anyone. Even Hicks (when he could stay out of foul trouble) was a defensive asset --- and they did it without a traditional rim-protector. It all started with that dog out front and his roommate.

As for this year's group, undeniably RJ's gonna get iso'd (again) in 20, but he's quick and tireless. Traps can hide his weaknesses and accentuate his assets. EC is a natural ball-hawk and his defensive vision is damn near as good as it is on offense. We have versatile "swing" guys like Ryan, Wojcik and Trimble, and Ingram enables us to be "small" when needed. None of our Bigs are lumbering, and especially Withers and the WVU transfer (y'all watch out for him, BTW --- word is he's gonna surprise some folks) can serve as both "interceptors" and "goal-tenders".

To use that word again, we just CANNOT afford to be predictable, and we absolutely MUST trigger the transition game (which is this season's bread-and-butter).

 

[DSouthr]

Length isn't important to a zone? Especially if it's not our primary defense, meaning we won't be practicing it a lot so our zone isn't going to be as intricate as Boeheim's Cuse teams since that's all they practiced. I think it's absolutely important to have some size/length at the top 2 of a 2-3 zone. If you don't, teams can just shoot over it.

And we traditionally do not defend 3's at a particularly high level. I'm very skeptical of being more exposed to 3PA allowed on defense. Also, we traditionally value defensive rebounding. If you do, typically you don't run zone because that's a primary weakness of a zone.

I'm sure we'll run it in situations. We generally do defending underneath the basket inbounds. Cadeau will have a game or two where he's in foul trouble and we have to learn how to manage that while he's on the floor. But I don't see zone as a weapon for us. IMO, it goes against our main defensive value which is defensive rebounding. Not necessarily actually playing good defense, lol.


I disagree that we have the personnel to press. Hubert and Roy has never valued turning the opposing team over. We also lack long, bouncy 6'6"-6'9" dudes on the roster. Ingram has the dimensions, but I don't think he's overly bouncy or sudden. I don't think we fit the bill for it. Might be wrong, but we don't have a ton of length, bounce, suddenness on this roster IMO.

I also challenge we were multiple under Roy. How were we multiple? We were a man-to-man team unless our PG1 got into foul trouble where we played some zone. We zoned against underneath the basket inbounds. And we did the run-and-jump like 3 possessions per game unless we were losing late. How were we multiple under Roy? We certainly weren't multiple during the normal flow of a game.

I don't know how multiple this current unit can be. I'll reiterate this. I think the best chance for this current group to be really solid defensively is to be really freaking good offensively. Our players aren't natural "guard your yard" type dudes. And our program isn't one that loves winning games 55-50. We haven't been built like that for the last 20 years.

I honestly don't know where to start with this one, Oh my... Hubert nor Roy never cared about turning opponents over, you really think there is a coach at any level in America that the head coach does not want his team to get TO on the opponents? So you must have bouncy 6'6"-6"9" guys to press, who in the world told you that?

I have trying to stop laughing but this is some funny stuff? I mean, you challenge that Roy used multiple defenses and then share the multiple defenses he used, seriously, did you thin that one thru? LOL One of these days you are gonna have to explain what the "normal" part of the game is, I guess as opposed to abnormal? LOL

Nah, I got to cut it with this one... just to silly to worry with a reasonable reply...LOL

 

[TPFKAPFS]

The only thing I read worth even considering is the idea that strong man D with all on board and having pride in protecting the basket is the best D. I like zones as a changeup, situational, and in response to the opponent when needed. Shot blockers are one type of rim protectors but are not necessary to have good team D. Just like steak sauce is great but if the steak is seasoned and cooked properly it is not needed! This team is smart, motivated, experienced, and ALL have the pride necessary to take it personal when scored upon. I love the extended 1-3-1 and a good 3-2, but most teams expose too many holes in 2-3.

 

[DSouthr]

The only thing I read worth even considering is the idea that strong man D with all on board and having pride in protecting the basket is the best D. I like zones as a changeup, situational, and in response to the opponent when needed. Shot blockers are one type of rim protectors but are not necessary to have good team D. Just like steak sauce is great but if the steak is seasoned and cooked properly it is not needed! This team is smart, motivated, experienced, and ALL have the pride necessary to take it personal when scored upon. I love the extended 1-3-1 and a good 3-2, but most teams expose too many holes in 2-3.

The fast ball is not enough, you need the off speed to set up the heat. That is what a zone is to me, the off speed that sets up the heat, a way to keep the other team having to first figure out what you are doing before they can attack it, hard with a running shot clock.

Off every made basket I want them to switch between token pressure and hard pressure on the ball handler, at times begins what looks like token pressure and spring in to a hard press with zone trapping around or just before half court. This relies more on execution and positioning, as well as recognizing and poaching passing lanes more than having to have NBA level athletes, it is about execution more than athletics. So this question of do we have the athletes to hard press is just so far off IMO. Keep rotating in fresh legs and execute your plan, every defensive trip we should go in with the mind set of attacking the other team, not sitting back and letting them dictate the action hoping they will miss a jump shot, force that jump shot to be a hard look under pressure with poor rebounding position. Outlet pass out to our running game, rinse and repeat.

Yes of course, your having more athletic, experienced, solid basketball IQ that have developed skill is always preferred and for me I see us having more of that now than we have had for a really long time but truth is we had enough to have been able to play this way last season. As opposed to having weak shooters try to play in a half court set, especially knowing the opposing team already knew your plan and you were not especially good at executing it. Know this, as Dean taught us, it is fine if the other team knows what you are looking to do IF you execute your plan properly. What we all watched last season as well as the season before was a lot of individual stuff, winning ball is played by having all 5 guys on court working as one, on the same page executing on BOTH ends. Manek did bring in more of a team mindset and you saw the effect once he became ingrained as a starter. Last season we started the 4 returners as well as Nance, almost as if we had 4 starters and Nance as opposed to 5 starters. Last season may have been the worst example of team play that I have ever seen UNC play, even worse than the Matt coached Forte drama.