My thesis: The SEC's national brand power is in the midst of a decline and will change. Though the league will generally remain the best, more often than not, it will be regarded differently. Whereas over the past ten years the SEC has been both the best at the top and the best top to bottom, I believe in the future the SEC's preeminence will largely be based on the depth of the league's talent. In short, I believe the top teams in other conferences are and will be as good as the top teams in the SEC. This will lead to fewer championships (example: last two years), more parity in big bowl results, and perception across the board. This will have a trickle-down effect that helps even middle-tier and upper-middle tier programs in various leagues.
Analysis.
Background. Contrary to some of you here, I do believe that the SEC has been the nation's best conference for the past decade and not by a small margin. I think they have been far and away the nation's best conference. Geography (demographics) is the key factor but also a 'golden era' of coaching prowess and more good quarterbacks than historically was true has led to this.
I sympathize with those who are frustrated and believe the SEC has been overrated. I know where your argument comes from. Clemson has held their own against the SEC lately -- more than held their own, really. The SEC East has been not just down, but mediocre. The ACC puts out serious talent into the NFL Draft. Built-in biases contribute to ranking inflation.
My counterpoint is simply the overall number of draft picks and NFL mainstays, the SEC's record against what is undoubtedly the most difficult slate of bowl games (the games are staggered to make lower-rated SEC teams play higher-rated teams in other leagues), and -- this is little-mentioned but a biggie for me -- the fact that so many SEC teams are capable of winning the national championship. It wouldn't be surprising at all if Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Georgia or even in the coming years Tennessee or Texas A&M competed for national championships. Mississippi State was ranked No. 1 late into the season and Ole Miss was top five.
However. The SEC's unparalleled run of championships from '06-12 came during a unique blend of circumstances that are unlikely to be repeated. It's true, population (and talent) have moved South. It's also true that the SEC's share of Rivals100 and Rivals250 players has actually increased over the past few years.
But the SEC has also had better quarterback play for the past decade than it often did historically. It's also true that Nick Saban has been responsible for four of the league's seven consecutive titles during that run. One might even say five, if you consider that he laid the foundation for Les Miles' championship (although many Roy Williams fans will astutely poke holes in that somewhat unfair slight to Miles -- since that LSU team lost two games and had enormous talent, I think it's a little different than Doherty's role in UNC's '05 title. And we can't really compare Doherty to Saban, can we?).
The SEC's run during that era came during a strong period for USC, but - bizarrely - USC never played the SEC champ for the national title or on a major stage. At least the early part of that time period was strong for USC. Ohio State was very good during those years, but not as good as they are now. They mostly mopped up on Midwest talent and Jim Tressel was trying to beat the best teams with a slower, plodding pace as the best teams went to the spread. Michigan was totally down, Penn State totally down, Texas was inconsistent, Oklahoma has tapered off, and Florida State was very down.
We know from history that Florida State's 'best' is often better than Florida's 'best'. Even their second best coach ever (Spurrier) couldn't really hold a candle to Bowden's juggernaut, more often than not. And the few times USC's best teams did play SEC competition -- not the best SEC teams, but upper echelon SEC teams -- they torched them, hanging 70-plus on Arkansas and blanking Auburn the year before their 14-0 season. Last year's Ohio State win over Alabama may have been the final redemption after the '06 loss to Florida in the national championship, and a sign that the momentum is at Urban Meyer's back.
Let's keep it real. The SEC still brings in the best recruiting classes. They are still likely to play on the biggest stages, in the biggest stadiums (well, with the Big Ten's biggest), and they get the most exposure -- all of it deserved or not. So they aren't plummeting.
But consider this 'back to reality' trend line.
-- Two straight non-SEC championships.
-- Clemson breaking through against SEC teams head to head of late (beating Georgia once, beating LSU, beating Suth Carolina). Florida State starting to handle their SEC foes (Auburn, Florida). Georgia Tech's first win over Georgia in some time. Louisville giving the ACC another southern recruiting presence and a very good coach. Florida State recruiting as well as anyone, in the company of Alabama and USC. Clemson surpassing South Carolina as the Palmetto State's lead recruiting power.
And that's just from the ACC.
Consider yet still that Miami is nowhere near maxing out it's potential, that UNC's brand has shown a potential to rise significantly in the past, that Virginia Tech has been down, that Georgia Tech has done what they've done while rarely signing even a few Top 50 Georgia recruits, that NC State is getting better (like it or not).
But what about elsewhere?
-- USC just beat out every SEC school for four-star receiver Josh Imatorbhebhe ... from Georgia. Recruits from the South are making plans to travel West to visit Troy. UCLA is casting a wider net in the South. Oregon is, too. Stanford has shown they can win recruiting battles in every part of the country.
Frankly, the Pac-12 at the top is every bit as powerful, daunting and as much of a recruiting sledgehammer as the SEC at the top. The USC-Alabama game to open 2016 will be immensely important for Alabama. They had their Ohio State wake up one year after an Oklahoma wake up, they have questions going into this year, and they may actually be the (slightly) less talented team when they take on USC in Jerry World.
-- Texas has been down and there are signs Charlie Strong will have them rising. They need to figure out their QB situation but look at the ridiculous talent he left at Louisville (10 draft picks). Oklahoma has been down - they could rise. TCU may have deserved a playoff berth. Baylor was right there.
-- And in the Big Ten, Urban Meyer might have the nation's best thing going and could go back-to-back. Michigan's national brand will ascend majorly and they're already blanketing the South and everywhere else. Michigan State is widely respected and they're becoming elite if they aren't already. Penn State is recruiting at an extremely high level and is ruffling feathers with satellite camps in the South. I'm of the opinion that Nebraska can still be very elite with the right coach. I just question whether it's Mike Riley.
Here's my ultimate conclusion, as stated in the thesis.
The SEC will still usually be the best league top to bottom. That's because the league is in the backyard of the most major recruiting supply centers. Primarily Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, and even somewhat Texas.
But the SEC's best teams will in no way be better than the best teams in each of the other four major conferences, although I acknowledge someone in the ACC besides Florida State (or maybe Clemson) needs to step up and long-term the Big XII is a little iffy beyond Texas and Oklahoma -- and their forecast isn't as bright right now.
So that means a more equal partitioning of championships, more equal results in the biggest bowls on the biggest stages, and I believe there will be a trickle-down effect that will improve the image of UNC and other like programs, while a declining image of SEC 'untouchability' in the 'open season' states of N.C., Va., Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Texas, etc.
Analysis.
Background. Contrary to some of you here, I do believe that the SEC has been the nation's best conference for the past decade and not by a small margin. I think they have been far and away the nation's best conference. Geography (demographics) is the key factor but also a 'golden era' of coaching prowess and more good quarterbacks than historically was true has led to this.
I sympathize with those who are frustrated and believe the SEC has been overrated. I know where your argument comes from. Clemson has held their own against the SEC lately -- more than held their own, really. The SEC East has been not just down, but mediocre. The ACC puts out serious talent into the NFL Draft. Built-in biases contribute to ranking inflation.
My counterpoint is simply the overall number of draft picks and NFL mainstays, the SEC's record against what is undoubtedly the most difficult slate of bowl games (the games are staggered to make lower-rated SEC teams play higher-rated teams in other leagues), and -- this is little-mentioned but a biggie for me -- the fact that so many SEC teams are capable of winning the national championship. It wouldn't be surprising at all if Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Georgia or even in the coming years Tennessee or Texas A&M competed for national championships. Mississippi State was ranked No. 1 late into the season and Ole Miss was top five.
However. The SEC's unparalleled run of championships from '06-12 came during a unique blend of circumstances that are unlikely to be repeated. It's true, population (and talent) have moved South. It's also true that the SEC's share of Rivals100 and Rivals250 players has actually increased over the past few years.
But the SEC has also had better quarterback play for the past decade than it often did historically. It's also true that Nick Saban has been responsible for four of the league's seven consecutive titles during that run. One might even say five, if you consider that he laid the foundation for Les Miles' championship (although many Roy Williams fans will astutely poke holes in that somewhat unfair slight to Miles -- since that LSU team lost two games and had enormous talent, I think it's a little different than Doherty's role in UNC's '05 title. And we can't really compare Doherty to Saban, can we?).
The SEC's run during that era came during a strong period for USC, but - bizarrely - USC never played the SEC champ for the national title or on a major stage. At least the early part of that time period was strong for USC. Ohio State was very good during those years, but not as good as they are now. They mostly mopped up on Midwest talent and Jim Tressel was trying to beat the best teams with a slower, plodding pace as the best teams went to the spread. Michigan was totally down, Penn State totally down, Texas was inconsistent, Oklahoma has tapered off, and Florida State was very down.
We know from history that Florida State's 'best' is often better than Florida's 'best'. Even their second best coach ever (Spurrier) couldn't really hold a candle to Bowden's juggernaut, more often than not. And the few times USC's best teams did play SEC competition -- not the best SEC teams, but upper echelon SEC teams -- they torched them, hanging 70-plus on Arkansas and blanking Auburn the year before their 14-0 season. Last year's Ohio State win over Alabama may have been the final redemption after the '06 loss to Florida in the national championship, and a sign that the momentum is at Urban Meyer's back.
Let's keep it real. The SEC still brings in the best recruiting classes. They are still likely to play on the biggest stages, in the biggest stadiums (well, with the Big Ten's biggest), and they get the most exposure -- all of it deserved or not. So they aren't plummeting.
But consider this 'back to reality' trend line.
-- Two straight non-SEC championships.
-- Clemson breaking through against SEC teams head to head of late (beating Georgia once, beating LSU, beating Suth Carolina). Florida State starting to handle their SEC foes (Auburn, Florida). Georgia Tech's first win over Georgia in some time. Louisville giving the ACC another southern recruiting presence and a very good coach. Florida State recruiting as well as anyone, in the company of Alabama and USC. Clemson surpassing South Carolina as the Palmetto State's lead recruiting power.
And that's just from the ACC.
Consider yet still that Miami is nowhere near maxing out it's potential, that UNC's brand has shown a potential to rise significantly in the past, that Virginia Tech has been down, that Georgia Tech has done what they've done while rarely signing even a few Top 50 Georgia recruits, that NC State is getting better (like it or not).
But what about elsewhere?
-- USC just beat out every SEC school for four-star receiver Josh Imatorbhebhe ... from Georgia. Recruits from the South are making plans to travel West to visit Troy. UCLA is casting a wider net in the South. Oregon is, too. Stanford has shown they can win recruiting battles in every part of the country.
Frankly, the Pac-12 at the top is every bit as powerful, daunting and as much of a recruiting sledgehammer as the SEC at the top. The USC-Alabama game to open 2016 will be immensely important for Alabama. They had their Ohio State wake up one year after an Oklahoma wake up, they have questions going into this year, and they may actually be the (slightly) less talented team when they take on USC in Jerry World.
-- Texas has been down and there are signs Charlie Strong will have them rising. They need to figure out their QB situation but look at the ridiculous talent he left at Louisville (10 draft picks). Oklahoma has been down - they could rise. TCU may have deserved a playoff berth. Baylor was right there.
-- And in the Big Ten, Urban Meyer might have the nation's best thing going and could go back-to-back. Michigan's national brand will ascend majorly and they're already blanketing the South and everywhere else. Michigan State is widely respected and they're becoming elite if they aren't already. Penn State is recruiting at an extremely high level and is ruffling feathers with satellite camps in the South. I'm of the opinion that Nebraska can still be very elite with the right coach. I just question whether it's Mike Riley.
Here's my ultimate conclusion, as stated in the thesis.
The SEC will still usually be the best league top to bottom. That's because the league is in the backyard of the most major recruiting supply centers. Primarily Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, and even somewhat Texas.
But the SEC's best teams will in no way be better than the best teams in each of the other four major conferences, although I acknowledge someone in the ACC besides Florida State (or maybe Clemson) needs to step up and long-term the Big XII is a little iffy beyond Texas and Oklahoma -- and their forecast isn't as bright right now.
So that means a more equal partitioning of championships, more equal results in the biggest bowls on the biggest stages, and I believe there will be a trickle-down effect that will improve the image of UNC and other like programs, while a declining image of SEC 'untouchability' in the 'open season' states of N.C., Va., Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Texas, etc.
