Pomeroy gives the edge to Duke by a point with a 51% confidence factor. FWIW.
I haven't seen Duke play at all and only saw a bit of UK's 1st game. Just based on stats and the little I saw, I'd give the edge to Duke.
If Poythress gets his act together, he could give Ingram a real wake-up call. Strong, experienced dude. I doubt Ingram has faced that kind of power yet.
I fully expect Lee and Skal to be a top-notch front line - eventually - but neither of them looked there yet when I saw them. Humphries looked like a decent backup, too. On paper, they are better than Duke's front line of Plum3 and Jefferson, backed by Jeter and Obi (and with Ingram playing a bit at the 4). But this early in the season, I think Duke has too much experience up front. It will be close.
Meanwhile, Duke has at least 3 good 3-point shooters, and UK doesn't.
Thornton was definitely not ready in th 1st game. But (judging by stats) Grayson Allen has been playing like a superstar. Hard to see how Allen can slow down Ulis, but also hard to see Ulis handling Allen's size and strength.
UK played some press when I was watching. Looked pretty good but the competition wasn't strong. It will be interesting to see if Cal tries that against Duke.