Double-Bye Jockeying

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Right now Pomeroy projects us finishing 11-7, in sole possession of 4th place. Which would give us a double-bye.

He shows us winning every individual game except the rematch @ Duke. But 2 of the games are basically tossups - @ Louisville and @ Syracuse. So the odds are we lose 1 of those - and that's how Pomeroy ends up with our 11-7 finish.

The danger is nipping at our heels. Louisville, Miami and Va Tech are projected to tie for 5th place with 10-8 records. If we falter or if one of them does better than projected, the double-by is in jeopardy.

Va Tech already has the tie-breaker with us. If we lose to either Louisville or Miami, then they will have the tie-breaker against us, as well.

Louisville (8-5 in conference) has a brutal final stretch - probably the toughest of any team:

UNC (home)
Duke (away)
Va Tech (away)
Virginia (home)
NC State (away)

Winning 3 of those to move into a tie with us looks almost impossible, but who knows? Pomeroy rates their games against us, Va Tech and NCSU as tossups. So it's possible.

Miami is 7-5 in the ACC. Their home stretch looks somewhat easier:

Virginia
Syracuse
@ Notre Dame
BC
@ UNC
Va Tech

Virginia Tech currently stands at 7-5 with these games remaining:

@ Duke
@ Ga Tech
Clemson
Louisville
Duke
@ Miami

Again, hard to see them winning enough to move into a tie with us.

My guess is that Louisville or Miami have the best chances of tying us. But it won't be easy for any of them.

It's close enough that we can't afford to give away any games. If we do, one of these teams could take away the double-bye.

 

[DeuceManJones]

Not to be cliche, but ever since the slide to 5-5, we did seriously have to take it one game at a time. And thus far it has worked out. Winning tonight against ND will be vital regardless of how the chips fall in the last 4 games. We must win tonight to keep the double-bye hopes alive.

To sweep this three-game stretch would be awesome. It would make up for the three-game losing streak against VT, NCST and Clemson.

Always thought we would be on the 12-6/11-7 bubble, but that 12-6 was vital for the double-bye. However, given the extreme parody of the league this year, 11-7 might actually do it.

 

[2DDIMOND]

5 of Clemson's last 6 games are loseable games. If they go all Clemson on us like they have so many times before late in the season, we could finish ahead of them. Not sure how that tiebreaker would play out since we split.