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Finance Thread a.k.a. Ways to Lose Money

tarheel0910

tarheel0910

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I thought we should have a thread where we can talk about anything related to finance here. That will allow us to separate all the bad financial information into one thread for easy access to bad ideas. So, who else has been following all of this meme stock news this year?

Oh before I forget, anything I post in this thread is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as financial advice. You should consult your own financial advisor for any investment advice.
 
I think about this a lot...are we entering another roaring 20s? The similarities are very eerie when you think of coming off a pandemic, we're a nation relatively at peace right now internationally after about 20 years of the war on terror, and the bitcoin/retail investing boom can be compared to the credit boom of the 1920s.

One thing I'm doing is investing heavily in the next maybe 2-3 years. With the world being just overall sped up when compared to the 1920s, I don't believe this boom will last a full 9 years like the previous roaring 20s. I say by 2025 this could crash as it did in 1929.

But until then...be reckless.
 
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dadika13 said:
I think about this a lot...are we entering another roaring 20s? The similarities are very eerie when you think of coming off a pandemic, we're a nation relatively at peace right now internationally after about 20 years of the war on terror, and the bitcoin/retail investing boom can be compared to the credit boom of the 1920s.

One thing I'm doing is investing heavily in the next maybe 2-3 years. With the world being just overall sped up when compared to the 1920s, I don't believe this boom will last a full 9 years like the previous roaring 20s. I say by 2025 this could crash as it did in 1929.

But until then...be reckless.
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Yeah, i figure I'm still in my 30's, so I have time to rebuild if it crashes. Although the vast majority of my retirement is in a 401k and that's invested more traditionally (mutual funds, etc). I'm just using a small amount of fun money I have to go a little crazy with.
 
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How much further will residential real estate keep going? Housing prices are high historically compared to rent, but it is hard to know if we're in a frothy bubble or if supply/demand justifies it.
 
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blazers said:
How much further will residential real estate keep going? Housing prices are high historically compared to rent, but it is hard to know if we're in a frothy bubble or if supply/demand justifies it.
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Residential Real estate right now is absolute insanity. My buddy is trying to buy in the Boston burbs and every single house has 30 offers and they are going for like 30-40% above asking with inspections completely waived. I also know a 19 year old college kid who just got a loan approved for a 400k house...

So yeah...I've seen The Big Short one too many times to know this is not looking good again.
 
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tarheel0910 said:
Yeah, i figure I'm still in my 30's, so I have time to rebuild if it crashes. Although the vast majority of my retirement is in a 401k and that's invested more traditionally (mutual funds, etc). I'm just using a small amount of fun money I have to go a little crazy with.
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Yeah we're in the same boat. I play around with only about 10% of my total investments with the other 90% being in my 401k that's traditional like yours.

Then of that 10% I try to only keep 40% in what I consider super risky stuff (coins, meme stocks, etc). The rest is in stuff I get from my financial guy who is really accurate most of the time.

Do you consolidate it all in one investing platform or do you run multiple? Right now I have Fidelity for my 401k and less risky stocks, Schwab for ETFs from a few years back, Coinbase for crypto, and Robinhood for more risky stocks. It's annoying to keep track of but consolidating seems like so much work.
 
dadika13 said:
Residential Real estate right now is absolute insanity. My buddy is trying to buy in the Boston burbs and every single house has 30 offers and they are going for like 30-40% above asking with inspections completely waived. I also know a 19 year old college kid who just got a loan approved for a 400k house...

So yeah...I've seen The Big Short one too many times to know this is not looking good again.
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High lumber prices are also making the prices higher for new homes. Once that goes back down, I think you'll see some correction for new homes.
 
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dadika13 said:
Do you consolidate it all in one investing platform or do you run multiple? Right now I have Fidelity for my 401k and less risky stocks, Schwab for ETFs from a few years back, Coinbase for crypto, and Robinhood for more risky stocks. It's annoying to keep track of but consolidating seems like so much work.
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ML for my 401k and fun money. Webull and Coinbase for crypto. I had a customer service issue with Robinhood, so I told them to GFY. Never received a response though.
 
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I don't gamble in casinos, online, etc... but I do make some "bets" on niche companies that are relatively new and I think will do well. Unfortunately, I have two that seem to have drawn the attention of the short sellers and reddit crowd. Virgin Galactic and Beyond Meat (which probably isn't a popular company with much of this board, LOL.)
 
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WhatTheHeel? said:
I don't gamble in casinos, online, etc... but I do make some "bets" on niche companies that are relatively new and I think will do well. Unfortunately, I have two that seem to have drawn the attention of the short sellers and reddit crowd. Virgin Galactic and Beyond Meat (which probably isn't a popular company with much of this board, LOL.)
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I've been on Virgin Galactic for a while. Maybe a couple of years. Can't remember the exact date. I think it has significant potential if they can ever get the plane to work.
 
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I also bought some Roblox stock in my kids account. They love playing it, so I thought it would be pretty cool for them to be able to say they "own" part of the company. Of course they are 10 and 8, so they don't really have a clue what I'm talking about.
 
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Residential real estate and any real estate / land etc has really escalated in price- like @dadika13 said and for the reasons he said.... but I think things are beginning to settle down a bit, over the last few weeks.

We have started work on getting our house ready to sell (exist suburbs of Minneapolis, move to mid-sized town ( Rapid City / Black Hills, SD) by summer '23 at latest. Have been viewing houses there, and getting an idea of what our house is worth here. It seems like almost everywhere homes are meeting what @dadika13 said: as soon as a house is listed, many offers and they usually sell within a couple days, often for 5-10% above list price. Our realtor estimated our home at `$450K a few months ago, but then came back and said now it could get nearly $500K.

I do agree we are set for a RE correction. But I've always thought - and still do think - that if you can put cash money homey into a house or land real estate - it is great because they aren't making any new land, and generally land doesn't tend to depreciate. It tends to hold its value, since it is tangible, if the US dollar takes a swoon, or if the stock market crashes or has a major correction.
 
I am interested in small stock items. Lost alot of money last year due to covid and readjusting my work areas.

As for investing, i dont really have time to research companies to invest in.
 
Bought some more BB today. I'm sure it will be down 80% by the time the market closes.
 
tarheel0910 said:
Bought some more BB today. I'm sure it will be down 80% by the time the market closes.
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What do you think the average hold time is on these meme stocks? I haven't been paying attention to GME/AMC in months, but I absolutely expected GME to have plummeted back down to reality by now. Can't believe it is still so high.

I understand there is still short-squeeze type effects that could be doing a little propping, but I'd figure most folks are just buying these meme stocks for hours at a time, rather than holding overnight. What's your timeline or sell trigger?
 
blazers said:
What do you think the average hold time is on these meme stocks? I haven't been paying attention to GME/AMC in months, but I absolutely expected GME to have plummeted back down to reality by now. Can't believe it is still so high.

I understand there is still short-squeeze type effects that could be doing a little propping, but I'd figure most folks are just buying these meme stocks for hours at a time, rather than holding overnight. What's your timeline or sell trigger?
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The WSB guys aren't selling. I don't think this is a day trader type thing where you get a lot of people making hourly trades. If that were the case, GME would be well below where it is.

As far as I go, I don't have a number in mind yet. If it gets into the same range as GME did, I would definitely sell. Not sure it gets that high though. I'm normally a long term guy. I rarely sell short term.
 
blazers said:
What do you think the average hold time is on these meme stocks? I haven't been paying attention to GME/AMC in months, but I absolutely expected GME to have plummeted back down to reality by now. Can't believe it is still so high.

I understand there is still short-squeeze type effects that could be doing a little propping, but I'd figure most folks are just buying these meme stocks for hours at a time, rather than holding overnight. What's your timeline or sell trigger?
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I can't remember the exact numbers, but I think it was one day last week where volume was 85mm shares for the day and only 70mm exist, so yeah, some of those bought and sold the same day.

I'm not a fan of the Reddit/WSB vs. Shortsellers impact on the market, but I'm surprised Gamestop hasn't issued 5mm more shares at current prices and paid off its debt. It's not worth its $20b market cap, but with a clean balance sheet, maybe it could do something.
 
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Anyone going to bite on this?

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Just saw this quote from AMC CEO, last week:
“We believe the recent volatility and our current market prices reflect market and trading dynamics unrelated to our underlying business, or macro or industry fundamentals, and we do not know how long these dynamics will last,”

He probably has to toe a careful line, but that reads: our stock price is insanely out of whack.
 
blazers said:
Just saw this quote from AMC CEO, last week:
“We believe the recent volatility and our current market prices reflect market and trading dynamics unrelated to our underlying business, or macro or industry fundamentals, and we do not know how long these dynamics will last,”

He probably has to toe a careful line, but that reads: our stock price is insanely out of whack.
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I don't think he's saying anything that anyone doesn't already know. Fundamentals have never been the driver behind the stonks movement.
 
blazers said:
Just saw this quote from AMC CEO, last week:
“We believe the recent volatility and our current market prices reflect market and trading dynamics unrelated to our underlying business, or macro or industry fundamentals, and we do not know how long these dynamics will last,”

He probably has to toe a careful line, but that reads: our stock price is insanely out of whack.
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He knows his company isn't worth $36B.

AMC stock has entered "greater fool" territory. You know it's not worth what you're paying for it when you buy it, you're just hoping there is a greater fool than you out there that will at some point pay you more than you paid for it.
 
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Hark_The_Sound_2010 said:
He knows his company isn't worth $36B.

AMC stock has entered "greater fool" territory. You know it's not worth what you're paying for it when you buy it, you're just hoping there is a greater fool than you out there that will at some point pay you more than you paid for it.
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yes. Jump on the hype train...hope to jump off before it gets overweight and crashes / crushes the bridge
 
tarheel0910 said:
I don't think he's saying anything that anyone doesn't already know. Fundamentals have never been the driver behind the stonks movement.
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Right, I just think it's a sign of a weird era in investing. Anonymous just recently berated Elon Musk regarding Bitcoin...

Momo stocks have been a thing for awhile but even their technical indicators had a bit of grounding in reality, but crypto & meme stocks are a whole new beast.
 
blazers said:
Right, I just think it's a sign of a weird era in investing. Anonymous just recently berated Elon Musk regarding Bitcoin...

Momo stocks have been a thing for awhile but even their technical indicators had a bit of grounding in reality, but crypto & meme stocks are a whole new beast.
Click to expand...

And now we have NFTs.
 
WhatTheHeel? said:
I'm guessing this is different from a HELOC where it's secured by equity in a property?
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It's different, but apparently WF doesn't really have an issue about calling in loans for no reason and leaving the client SOL. Who knows what will happen next. I do know that I worked there for 8 years. If they called me today and offered me a $15k raise, I wouldn't take them up on the offer. That should tell you how bad they are to work for.
 
tarheel0910 said:
It's different, but apparently WF doesn't really have an issue about calling in loans for no reason and leaving the client SOL. Who knows what will happen next. I do know that I worked there for 8 years. If they called me today and offered me a $15k raise, I wouldn't take them up on the offer. That should tell you how bad they are to work for.
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I'm well aware of WF's behavior. I was involved in a group that had invested in a small shopping center (8-10 store strip mall) in Boone. It was doing well and made every loan payment on time. But a former business partner, who was never removed from the personal guaranty on the shopping center, filed for personal bankruptcy, and they called the note. This was around 2008 so even though the tenants all stayed and it continued to cash flow fine, we had to scramble to sell it in a downturn and eat a loss.
 
dadika13 said:
Big, if true.
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A survey showed that 17% of Americans own at least a share of bitcoin. I'm not sure about what qualifies as owning a share--does that include owning stock in a public company that has bitcoin on its books? I don't know anyone who owns bitcoin directly. I have a little Coinbase stock.
 
WhatTheHeel? said:
A survey showed that 17% of Americans own at least a share of bitcoin. I'm not sure about what qualifies as owning a share--does that include owning stock in a public company that has bitcoin on its books? I don't know anyone who owns bitcoin directly. I have a little Coinbase stock.
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That seems high. I only own it directly because someone on here pays their betting losses via btc. I had to create an account on an exchange lol.

Gbtc is an etf for Bitcoin, perhaps it winds up in some big baskets of funds?
 
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