Free Throw Shooting this Season

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Last season, as a team, we shot .668 from the line. 289th in the nation. Yikes!

Sharp (.505), Kessler (.537) and Brooks (.606) are gone. But Bacot (.664) and Leaky (.692) are likely starters. Fortunately, we have some incomers who look very good.

Here are last year's numbers for this year's players with college experience. Listed in order of FT%.

Player	MPG	FT%	FTA (season)	FTA (per 40)	Played for
Puff Johnson	4.1	1.000	2	1.4	UNC
Kerwin Walton	21.0	.840	25	1.6	UNC
RJ Davis	22.3	.821	67	4.1	UNC
Caleb Love	27.7	.808	78	3.9	UNC
Justin McKoy	11.3	.800	10	1.9	Virginia
Dawson Garcia	29.7	.783	106	5.3	Marquette
Brady Manek	25.1	.767	30	1.9	Oklahoma
Leaky Black	27.6	.692	52	2.6	UNC
Armando Bacot	22.7	.664	125	7.6	UNC
Anthony Harris	11.0	.529	17	3.9	UNC

 

[Rabidfrog]

The Ant one you assume is just an anomaly - cause no way should a guard be shooting worse than all your bigs.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

The Ant one you assume is just an anomaly - cause no way should a guard be shooting worse than all your bigs.

Clearly he needs to improve his FT and his equally abysmal 3pt shooting (.250) if he wants meaningful PT.

He was much better on both in the 5 games of his freshman season, and he only played 16 as a soph (RS frosh). So which small sample (if either) is the real Ant?

OTOH, if he does improve his FT and 3pt scoring (his 2pt scoring is OK), he has a lot to recommend him. Among returning scholarship players, he's #1 on steals and #2 on assists on a per 40 basis, and beats both Caleb and RJ on Assist:TO ratio. He's quick and has a good motor.

I hope he can improve his scoring enough over the summer to earn good PT.

 

[Tom79]

I would imagine we'll be shooting some free throws.

 

[DSouthr]

Clearly he needs to improve his FT and his equally abysmal 3pt shooting (.250) if he wants meaningful PT.

He was much better on both in the 5 games of his freshman season, and he only played 16 as a soph (RS frosh). So which small sample (if either) is the real Ant?

OTOH, if he does improve his FT and 3pt scoring (his 2pt scoring is OK), he has a lot to recommend him. Among returning scholarship players, he's #1 on steals and #2 on assists on a per 40 basis, and beats both Caleb and RJ on Assist:TO ratio. He's quick and has a good motor.

I hope he can improve his scoring enough over the summer to earn good PT.

I expect Ant's free throw (as well as over all shooting) to improve by a good bit. Have to realize, the kid has been on the shelf for the most part of the last 2yrs, since the end of his HS senior year. So I realize he had a LOT of rust that would show for skill items like shooting. He was not able to play enough to knock the rust off or get in to a rhythm. Now he isn't a knock down shooter but he can shoot much better than what we have seen. I actually would not dismiss the suggestion that he can become a reliable jump shooter with the work he has finally been able to put in this off season.

From what I see his jump shot was a confident stroke (shooting with confidence is so vital to a good shooter) that just looks a little flat to me. But on our staff we have Hubert and Lebo, (not to mention Kerwin Walton is your team mate) 2 of the best jump shooters to ever play for UNC so I think he has great folks in place to help him iron out the kinks.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Team average FT% will = 75% +; 3pt % will = 36% +, book it!

Teams will be scared to pack the lane opening up driving lanes and room for Bacot.....
And joy will reign in Tar Heel land!

 

[dtodd4475]

Would love 75%, that would put us near the lead in the nation, top 40/50 type. Would be a huge leap.

 

[midline]

I don't think it can do anything but improve, but I don't know. As basketball has evolved and high school ball seems to have become secondary to the AAU circus, the mid range game has lost all appeal. It is all about shooting the 3 or dunking the ball. There is just less emphasis on free throws at younger ages than anytime previously.

 

[UNCPJH81]

when was the last time our team averaged 75% on FTs? Ever?

 

[dtodd4475]

I don't think it can do anything but improve, but I don't know. As basketball has evolved and high school ball seems to have become secondary to the AAU circus, the mid range game has lost all appeal. It is all about shooting the 3 or dunking the ball. There is just less emphasis on free throws at younger ages than anytime previously.

Free throw percentages have not dipped though. Biggest myth ever is that free throw shooting used to be better "back in our day". Old guys lie for each generation to the next. They keep stats, it wasn't, better. You can go back to every decade, it's the same shot, from the same distance, percentages are constant.

Actually a bit better now, but only marginally. Most consistent stat in sports over the decades is free throw percentage.

 

[DSouthr]

I don't think it can do anything but improve, but I don't know. As basketball has evolved and high school ball seems to have become secondary to the AAU circus, the mid range game has lost all appeal. It is all about shooting the 3 or dunking the ball. There is just less emphasis on free throws at younger ages than anytime previously.

The AAU circus as well as the NBA, has in fact devalued the mid range shot, heck Nate Oats does not want his players even attempting mid range shots. What this has produced is players that either camp out beyond the 3pt arch or slash and drive their way to the rim or finish with a runner. Pure mid range jump shooting, even for big men seems to be a lost art. But the free throw is taken from a mid range distance and free throw shooting is such a valuable part of the game. Have not looked at it but I believe that if you look at our losses last season as an example sample set that our free throw shooting was poor in each of those losses. Dean had free throw shooting as one of his main themes and it is easy to see why, he ran the numbers and saw that strong free throw % from his team translated in to wins.

 

[dtodd4475]

The AAU circus as well as the NBA, has in fact devalued the mid range shot, heck Nate Oats does not want his players even attempting mid range shots. What this has produced is players that either camp out beyond the 3pt arch or slash and drive their way to the rim or finish with a runner. Pure mid range jump shooting, even for big men seems to be a lost art. But the free throw is taken from a mid range distance and free throw shooting is such a valuable part of the game. Have not looked at it but I believe that if you look at our losses last season as an example sample set that our free throw shooting was poor in each of those losses. Dean had free throw shooting as one of his main themes and it is easy to see why, he ran the numbers and saw that strong free throw % from his team translated in to wins.

No doubt that with sabermetrics the mid range is frowned upon, but free throws are a area of focus (paint/rim attacks, 3's, free throws).

The past 2 seasons each have been the highest NBA league free throw percentages ever recorded. Not sure what the last 2 NCAA total numbers were, but I believe 2019 was the best D1 overall percentage recorded as well up to that point.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Free throw percentages have not dipped though. Biggest myth ever is that free throw shooting used to be better "back in our day". Old guys lie for each generation to the next. They keep stats, it wasn't, better. You can go back to every decade, it's the same shot, from the same distance, percentages are constant.

Actually a bit better now, but only marginally. Most consistent stat in sports over the decades is free throw percentage.

Interesting. I would have expected it to get better with improved tech allowing enhanced analysis of motion and whatever.

Any ideas why it hasn't gotten better?

 

[dtodd4475]

Interesting. I would have expected it to get better with improved tech allowing enhanced analysis of motion and whatever.

Any ideas why it hasn't gotten better?

There is a interesting New York or Washington Times article, I forget which one, from 10 or so years ago I think, that dives into a long statistical study and goes over possible reasons about just that. I will try to find it again. Most type no change in the environment activities do see a increase, free throws are a anomaly for how consistent it has always been through all the decades since the 60's. 50's were significantly lower, but it leveled off from the 60's to the present.

It is crazy how consistent free throw percentages have been, very out of the ordinary not to see a increase. The past few years have shown a overall increase to record highs though.

People's ingrained perceptions can be almost impossible to sway though. It always seems to be told by the older generations how they shot better then the current regardless of the eras, which they did not, they kept stats...lol. For me it mainly came from coaches and older fans who like to think they were knock down free throw shooters due to hard work on it back in their day. They always repeat the falsehood of players free throw prowess in their era, and convince their self of a skewed memory of the actual shooting from the stripe.

 

[DSouthr]

There is a interesting New York or Washington Times article, I forget which one, from 10 or so years ago I think, that dives into a long statistical study and goes over possible reasons about just that. I will try to find it again. Most type no change in the environment activities do see a increase, free throws are a anomaly for how consistent it has always been through all the decades since the 60's. 50's were significantly lower, but it leveled off from the 60's to the present.

It is crazy how consistent free throw percentages have been, very out of the ordinary not to see a increase. The past few years have shown a overall increase to record highs though.

People's ingrained perceptions can be almost impossible to sway though. It always seems to be told by the older generations how they shot better then the current regardless of the eras, which they did not, they kept stats...lol. For me it mainly came from coaches and older fans who like to think they were knock down free throw shooters due to hard work on it back in their day. They always repeat the falsehood of players free throw prowess in their era, and convince their self of a skewed memory of the actual shooting from the stripe.

In the 50s guys shot free throws under handed (Rick Barry style) so the improvement from the 50s to the 60s is understandable. The hard part of shooting free throws is that it is hard to slow your mind down. You are isolated out there on that line by yourself and you have just been playing hyped way up and now all the sudden you have to slow everything down and focus. IN a empty gym, doing nothing but shooting free throws, most college big men will make near 80% (lot of guards will be well over 90%) but you can take 15% of that away when they are in a game and even more away if it is a end of the game situation where those free throws mean the difference between a win and a loss.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Yeah I think clutch freethrow shooting % is a more important stat than overall percentages. Many teams/peeps can manage to have a respectable game and season average, but I would bet the teams that win the most and the truly elite player have an increased FT% or at least reach their mean in clutch time

 

[RHFD]

UNC has lost a lot games last couple years by missing clutch FT's

 

[dtodd4475]

In the 50s guys shot free throws under handed (Rick Barry style) so the improvement from the 50s to the 60s is understandable. The hard part of shooting free throws is that it is hard to slow your mind down. You are isolated out there on that line by yourself and you have just been playing hyped way up and now all the sudden you have to slow everything down and focus. IN a empty gym, doing nothing but shooting free throws, most college big men will make near 80% (lot of guards will be well over 90%) but you can take 15% of that away when they are in a game and even more away if it is a end of the game situation where those free throws mean the difference between a win and a loss.

I think that is spot on. Shooting is a basic part of the game, but free throws almost seems foreign to the game. A game of movement and fluidity even when shooting, becomes stationary for a shot or two. Then back to the flow.

Another strange part if I recall correctly, is that for such a key part of the game, one that can and does determine so many close games in the waning moments, the top 5 elite level free throw shooting teams in the nation each year are almost never among the teams competing on a championship level.

I think the coach at Southern Utah was interviewed in the article. His teams were perennially at or near the top from the foul line nationally. It did not correlate to much of a boost in their average winning percentage for them.

 

[DSouthr]

Yeah I think clutch freethrow shooting % is a more important stat than overall percentages. Many teams/peeps can manage to have a respectable game and season average, but I would bet the teams that win the most and the truly elite player have an increased FT% or at least reach their mean in clutch time

That notion of a clutch free throw, while I do agree with the notion, has always struck me a bit differently. The truth is that one you either made or missed in the first half has just as much impact on the final score as that clutch one you either made or missed in the waning seconds of a game. No, players do not see that first half free throw as big as that last second on the clock tie game situation free throw but they really both count the same toward the final score.

Same can be said about the last second potential game winning shot and the run of the mill first half jump shot, both are only worth depending on the distance either 2 or 3pts to the final score but missing or making the last second shot is looked at completely differently than the typical first half jumper. The more intense players try to play that way, they try to value every potential score with none being OK to waste. Just imagine a team that was able to defend for an entire game with the same passion they would defend up by 1, 15seconds left and the other team has the ball and what should be the final shot.

But sports comes down to situational decisions made late and the moments of the game are different and many times dictated by the time left on the game clock. So we will celebrate Luke Maye's game winner more than any earlier shot he made that game, Jordan's natty game winner is legendary. It defies logic and yet it injects so much fun. Fans celebrate yet they didn't actually win anything, the players did that. But that is why we love sports like we do, we are able to leave reality and the stress of every day life and for a short while live out our fantasy thru the kids on the court or on the field and we dream. That alone makes it so worth it...

 

[TPFKAPFS]

All true if you believe the game is won or lost purely through percentages or pure statistics. I believe the emotional state, will, and belief of the players on the court can determine it as well. A team fighting back or trying to hold onto a lead will fight that much harder after the incredible lift of a made freethrow after a team intentionally fouls OR a contested jump shot in the waning minutes! Conversely, missing these key shots can deflate a team and create negative momentum leading to a loss! This can cause hesitancy, indecision, and could make peeps just a step slower or less able to make that all important "clutch" shot. In a sense that last minute jumper/freethrow is more important than just 2 points!

 

[Archer2]

Would love 75%, that would put us near the lead in the nation, top 40/50 type. Would be a huge leap.

Ain’t that the truth?

when was the last time our team averaged 75% on FTs? Ever?

We actually averaged 75.4% and 76.1% in back to back years fairly recently( ‘08 and ‘09). Our average over the last 10 seasons is 69.4%. In ‘18/‘19, we averaged 74.1% and 74.2% respectively. Having said that, I would be elated if we shot 75% from the line.

 

[DSouthr]

Clearly he needs to improve his FT and his equally abysmal 3pt shooting (.250) if he wants meaningful PT.

He was much better on both in the 5 games of his freshman season, and he only played 16 as a soph (RS frosh). So which small sample (if either) is the real Ant?

OTOH, if he does improve his FT and 3pt scoring (his 2pt scoring is OK), he has a lot to recommend him. Among returning scholarship players, he's #1 on steals and #2 on assists on a per 40 basis, and beats both Caleb and RJ on Assist:TO ratio. He's quick and has a good motor.

I hope he can improve his scoring enough over the summer to earn good PT.

I feel strongly Ant can and will improve on last years stats. Understand, we can say his stats looked better his first season with us (I hate to even call it a season for us because it was so few games) but his PT in his first season with us included a history of ONLY 1 knee injury, his season ended when the second one occurred. The kid played last season with 2 surgically repaired serious knee injuries, I was just HAPPY to see him get all the way thru the season and not re-injure. Kid has had no pre-season to work on his game either of his 2 seasons on the team because he has been rehabbing, this will be his first off season to dedicate to becoming a better player so to me last season stats for him in any aspect are a total write off. And, most of you know, it is ALWAYS a kid's second season back from a serious knee injury that you begin to see how far they can come back and what their real game looks like. Physically the knees can be healed per the doctors in a year but the mental aspect takes longer for a kid to really trust that joint is healed and not have to constantly think about his movements for fear of reinjury.

My point is this season we should begin to see not only how far back Ant is going to be able to get to but serious development in his game over all. His shooting and free throw shooting should jump well up. His shooting mechanics did need a over haul (way low release point and very little arch), had multiple flaws in it but does seem to me to have a shooters touch and he ain't skeered to take a shot. Not saying he will become a Kerwin like shooter but I do think he can become a solid jump shooter that defenders need to stay on (say a Kenny Williams level shooter). His free throw shooting, be really surprised if it is not in the 70's% range.

Now looking at guys who I would see as getting PT as our 2 guard, Kerwin/Ant/Dunn/RJ, I would suggest Ant to be 3rd right now, behind Kerwin and RJ and Dunn working hard to supplant Ant. That 3rd guy IMO gets good PT because RJ will split time between the point and the 2. Hear me on this guys, Dunn (Styles to) has impressed a LOT of folks this off season, a lot of former players were surprised with what they saw from the kid (and those former players are talking to Hubert about what they saw from those kids, carries a TON of weight with Hubert and Lebo). The only guy I have heard more, I am surprised with how good he is more than Dunn and Styles is McKoy (McKoy has blown folks away from many aspects, not just an ability to score).

 

[DSouthr]

Ain’t that the truth?

We actually averaged 75.4% and 76.1% in back to back years fairly recently( ‘08 and ‘09). Our average over the last 10 seasons is 69.4%. In ‘18/‘19, we averaged 74.1% and 74.2% respectively. Having said that, I would be elated if we shot 75% from the line.

The hard part for a guard when it comes to free throw shooting is to settle your mind down, a good shooter rarely has time to think about a jump shot but at the free throw line you do have time to think. It is a matter of calming your mind down and that is easier said than done, especially in critical situations. I don't care who you are, down 1 with 1 second left in the game and you have a pair of free throws that could win the game, all the weight of the entire game is on your shoulders and you are amped up, those are 2 damned hard free throws to make, especially the first one.

 

[Archer2]

The hard part for a guard when it comes to free throw shooting is to settle your mind down, a good shooter rarely has time to think about a jump shot but at the free throw line you do have time to think. It is a matter of calming your mind down and that is easier said than done, especially in critical situations. I don't care who you are, down 1 with 1 second left in the game and you have a pair of free throws that could win the game, all the weight of the entire game is on your shoulders and you are amped up, those are 2 damned hard free throws to make, especially the first one.

Without a doubt. But the lionhearted ones stand up to the pressure and make most of them. On paper, this is a better shooting team. I hope that is shown on the hardwood. We lost too many games the last two years because we couldn’t knock down free throws.