Front court predictions

[CanuckChuck]

After last season I was a little worried about how the front court would look this year so I put the following together. At the time I wasn't as concerned about the back court as I felt between 7th, Williams, and BRob we would make up Marcus' avg stat line. I realize that we won't make up his ability to take over at times but I think Berry will help close the gap in that area. I'm more concerned now with Pinson's injury.

Last Season:

Johnson 28 min (17p 10r)
Meeks 21min (9p 6r)
Hicks 18min (9p 5r)

Total 67min (35p 21r)

This season we have Bradley and no Johnson. I don't include Maye because I'm not sure what to expect outta him. I know he will play and he should be better so just think of his improvement as a bonus to the number below. Here are my predictions. Please note that I am a fairly conservative and like to err on the downside so no AA season type predictions.

Best case:

Hicks 26 min (14p 8r) - really improves on his fouling problem and slightly improves his offensive production
Meeks 25 min (13p 8r) - basically improves on his Soph season
Bradley 20 min (10p 7r) - plays like Meeks as a frosh with better conditioning

Total 71 min (37p 23r) - our frontcourt gets even better production

Worst case:

Hicks 22 min (10p 5r) - doesn't improve much with the fouling and loses some efficiency
Meeks 21 min (9p 6r) - repeats his jr. season
Bradley 10 min (3p 3r) - He's a frosh and doesn't pick up the system very quickly

Total - 53 min (22p 14r) - team is in for a world of hurt

My best guess:

Hicks 24 min (13p 7r) - I think he improves his fouling and keeps his offensive efficiency
Meeks 23 min (11p 7r) - repeats his so. season
Bradly 16 min (8p 6r) - gives us Meeks as a frosh.

Total - 63 min (32p 20r) - slight drop from last year but not a disaster.

What do ya'll think?

CC

 

[Ned Cota]

That's a lot of work CC. Nicely done.

I think you could raise your best case projections on all 3 guys. Not that they could all have those best cases all at the same time, there's only so many touches that will be available for 3 post players. But I think the best case should at least include a double-double for Hicks and probably Meeks too. That'd be a major stretch for 3rd fiddle freshman Bradley, but the 2 seniors are capable.

We're all looking for Hicks to finally explode, but I think Meeks could explode too if he actually, finally stays healthy and in shape all year. I'd bump up Meeks' best case rebounding to 11 and Hicks' best case scoring to 17.

 

[gary-7]

After last season I was a little worried about how the front court would look this year so I put the following together. At the time I wasn't as concerned about the back court as I felt between 7th, Williams, and BRob we would make up Marcus' avg stat line. I realize that we won't make up his ability to take over at times but I think Berry will help close the gap in that area. I'm more concerned now with Pinson's injury.

Last Season:

Johnson 28 min (17p 10r)
Meeks 21min (9p 6r)
Hicks 18min (9p 5r)

Total 67min (35p 21r)

This season we have Bradley and no Johnson. I don't include Maye because I'm not sure what to expect outta him. I know he will play and he should be better so just think of his improvement as a bonus to the number below. Here are my predictions. Please note that I am a fairly conservative and like to err on the downside so no AA season type predictions.

Best case:

Hicks 26 min (14p 8r) - really improves on his fouling problem and slightly improves his offensive production
Meeks 25 min (13p 8r) - basically improves on his Soph season
Bradley 20 min (10p 7r) - plays like Meeks as a frosh with better conditioning

Total 71 min (37p 23r) - our frontcourt gets even better production

Worst case:

Hicks 22 min (10p 5r) - doesn't improve much with the fouling and loses some efficiency
Meeks 21 min (9p 6r) - repeats his jr. season
Bradley 10 min (3p 3r) - He's a frosh and doesn't pick up the system very quickly

Total - 53 min (22p 14r) - team is in for a world of hurt

My best guess:

Hicks 24 min (13p 7r) - I think he improves his fouling and keeps his offensive efficiency
Meeks 23 min (11p 7r) - repeats his so. season
Bradly 16 min (8p 6r) - gives us Meeks as a frosh.

Total - 63 min (32p 20r) - slight drop from last year but not a disaster.

What do ya'll think?

CC

Not sure why you left out Maye. He will get a lot of minutes this season... may even be first Big off the bench at times. I heard he even got a little bit more run than Tony in the scrimmage in fact.

Two reasons for that:
1. I don't think Roy wants Meeks and Bradley on the floor together too much --- they will likely mostly split time at the 5. Maye will likely be Hicks' primary back-up as a stretch-4.
2. Maye is coming on strong and figures to be a mainstay in the rotation.

 

[DSouthr]

"Hicks 26 min (14p 8r) - really improves on his fouling problem and slightly improves his offensive production"

I can go with 26-28mins for Hicks and I am thinking 16-18pts and 8 rebounds, has to stay out of foul trouble for this to happen, I think for the most part he will.

"Meeks 25 min (13p 8r) - basically improves on his Soph season"

Meeks I am thinking you are pretty close, really like to see him get his points up but I can go along with 13pts 25mins and 8 boards.

"Bradley 20 min (10p 7r) - plays like Meeks as a frosh with better conditioning"

20mins, yeah ok, I would minor tweek it to 12pts and 10 boards and add in a couple blocks

I would add in Luke (especially with Theo out) for a solid 10mins, maybe 6pts and 4-5 boards

That leaves about 10mins a game, minutes that would IMO go to Theo at the 4 if and when he becomes available. Till then, maybe Tony & Luke minutes go up, maybe we run some with Justin at the 4.

 

[DSouthr]

Not sure why you left out Maye. He will get a lot of minutes this season... may even be first Big off the bench at times. I heard he even got a little bit more run than Tony in the scrimmage in fact.

Two reasons for that:
1. I don't think Roy wants Meeks and Bradley on the floor together too much --- they will likely mostly split time at the 5. Maye will likely be Hicks' primary back-up as a stretch-4.
2. Maye is coming on strong and figures to be a mainstay in the rotation.

Gary, I suspect that Tony will back up the 4 and the 5 as first big man off the bench for which ever position comes out first. Luke will ease in so to speak but I don't relegate Tony to just Meeks back up. I think more of Luke's PT depends on how quickly Hicks picks up his first foul because Roy is going to have to manage Hicks first half minutes if he picks up a quick early 1st half foul and when he picks up a 2nd first half foul I think Roy will have to pull him for the rest of the half.

Not trying to be overly hard on Luke but I need to see a heck of a lot more to feel comfortable with him logging huge minutes at the 4. I am not sure that Luke would not help us more as a old school small forward as opposed to the classic or stretch 4. There are a lot of 4s that will play over the top of him IMO, need to see how the weight room off season work may have helped that but I got to see before I can believe on this one.

 

[gary-7]

Gary, I suspect that Tony will back up the 4 and the 5 as first big man off the bench for which ever position comes out first. Luke will ease in so to speak but I don't relegate Tony to just Meeks back up. I think more of Luke's PT depends on how quickly Hicks picks up his first foul because Roy is going to have to manage Hicks first half minutes if he picks up a quick early 1st half foul and when he picks up a 2nd first half foul I think Roy will have to pull him for the rest of the half.

Not trying to be overly hard on Luke but I need to see a heck of a lot more to feel comfortable with him logging huge minutes at the 4. I am not sure that Luke would not help us more as a old school small forward as opposed to the classic or stretch 4. There are a lot of 4s that will play over the top of him IMO, need to see how the weight room off season work may have helped that but I got to see before I can believe on this one.

I don't believe that is correct at all. Roy likes Luke at the 4 and I hear most of Tony's early minutes will come as Kennedy's backup... and with Hicks prone to fouling, Luke will have opportunity to shine as a key backup. BTW: Luke impressed over the summer with his 3-pt range so don't be surprised to see him utilize that stretch weapon. I believe he hit one in the scrimmage.

How the minutes flesh out over the season of course remains to be seen. Tony will develop into a terrific player ---- in fact I expect him to be a bonafide star next season, but Luke has also shown Roy and his teammates he's ready to be a big part of things. We should have a very nice four-man rotation up front.

 

[Tom79]

Is it me or does Tony have a build similar to Brad Daugherty's?
David, you laid out a couple of interesting points, yep, people will play over Luke at the 4. He may be 6'8" but he has to battle gravity, ya know? And...
If Hicks can stay foul free for more minutes then I am also hopeful we'll see a senior year explosion.
I think we will miss Theo a great deal.

 

[kylep45]

If Roy goes to Maye vs Bradley as Gary suggests, it's a big mistake. It'll cost us several games. Jmao

 

[DSouthr]

I don't believe that is correct at all. Roy likes Luke at the 4 and I hear most of Tony's early minutes will come as Kennedy's backup... and with Hicks prone to fouling, Luke will have opportunity to shine as a key backup. BTW: Luke impressed over the summer with his 3-pt range so don't be surprised to see him utilize that stretch weapon. I believe he hit one in the scrimmage.

How the minutes flesh out over the season of course remains to be seen. Tony will develop into a terrific player ---- in fact I expect him to be a bonafide star next season, but Luke has also shown Roy and his teammates he's ready to be a big part of things. We should have a very nice four-man rotation up front.

gary, not looking at throwing Luke under a bus but man, don't give me what you heard Luke did over the summer, give me what you watched with your own eyes man, you watched Luke just like I did last season. No disrespect intended for you or Luke but I am not ready to spin Luke in to Bobby Jones because that just was not what I watched last season. What a kid last summer may have done vs what I watched a kid do last winter? LOL

gary, buddy, I am not trying to be rude, but you selling me Sam Decker and maybe Luke can, dang I hope he can, but what tips off tonight and ends in march or april is not a scrimmage and it darn sure ain't some summer league game. Beginning tonight and now FINALLY for the next few months we will get to actually see and not have to speculate. With Theo out I sure hope that Luke can show what you suggest we should expect but these eyes got to see it first my friend and all I am saying is so far they have not.

 

[DSouthr]

Is it me or does Tony have a build similar to Brad Daugherty's?
David, you laid out a couple of interesting points, yep, people will play over Luke at the 4. He may be 6'8" but he has to battle gravity, ya know? And...
If Hicks can stay foul free for more minutes then I am also hopeful we'll see a senior year explosion.
I think we will miss Theo a great deal.

Yeah Tom, I have mentioned Big Brad many times in comparing Tony to a Heel we have seen. It isn't just his build IMO, he moves a lot like Brad did as well, kinda dejavu to recall Brad as a freshman and looking at Tony.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

Let's get some game time in before condemning or praising anyone.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

1. I don't think Roy wants Meeks and Bradley on the floor together too much.

I fear you are right, but I think that's a bad decision.

On the one hand you probably don't want Tony to have to play 2 positions. He's only a freshman. So he's going to be the center when he's in.

And you can't only have him in with Isaiah. That's too limiting.

And you probably don't want him in too much with Luke. Not enough firepower.

So you have to have some minutes of Kennedy and Tony. And Kennedy will be playing the PF.

Now that may fail badly against really quick talented front lines. But against most teams, that will work pretty well. Why? Because Kennedy at his recent weight moves quite well. He passes well. And he can make short jumpers. Plus, by playing away from the rim, his elevation problems basically don't matter.

As I suggested a while back, if Kennedy and Isaiah only manage 25 minutes per game, that leaves 30 minutes to be covered. That's rough. But the thing that most people don't look at is how many of those 25 minutes each can they be on the floor together?

The answer is, not a lot. Because the more minutes Isaiah and Kennedy are on the floor together, the more minutes they are on the bench together. And when they are on the bench together, who's minding the fort?

That's even more of a problem with Theo hurt, because we don't have our best small ball lineup.

 

[Ned Cota]

Luke Maye is at least twice as good as he was last year. Even more hustle. Way more confidence. I think he deserves at least 10-15 minutes a game.

 

[Butterbutt44]

Tony Bradley impresses me more everytime I see him play. And I agree Luke did things tonight that I honestly didnt think he was capable of. Very encouraging.

 

[gary-7]

I fear you are right, but I think that's a bad decision.

On the one hand you probably don't want Tony to have to play 2 positions. He's only a freshman. So he's going to be the center when he's in.

And you can't only have him in with Isaiah. That's too limiting.

And you probably don't want him in too much with Luke. Not enough firepower.

So you have to have some minutes of Kennedy and Tony. And Kennedy will be playing the PF.

Now that may fail badly against really quick talented front lines. But against most teams, that will work pretty well. Why? Because Kennedy at his recent weight moves quite well. He passes well. And he can make short jumpers. Plus, by playing away from the rim, his elevation problems basically don't matter.

As I suggested a while back, if Kennedy and Isaiah only manage 25 minutes per game, that leaves 30 minutes to be covered. That's rough. But the thing that most people don't look at is how many of those 25 minutes each can they be on the floor together?

The answer is, not a lot. Because the more minutes Isaiah and Kennedy are on the floor together, the more minutes they are on the bench together. And when they are on the bench together, who's minding the fort?

That's even more of a problem with Theo hurt, because we don't have our best small ball lineup.

I am gonna reply respectfully, that is NOT a bad decision. Luke can play. Tony can play. Our Big rotation is a strength. With Theo out what becomes iffy is our perimeter rotation.

 

[DSouthr]

Qualifier, I did not see this game vs Pembrook so these eyes have not seen what I need to see. But lots other eyes did see the game so I am going on trust until I can see. Does sound like Luke had a really good game, his stat line is darn impressive. Have to ask, did he have a strong mismatch or was he just that solid?

Sounds like 7th played pretty well, considering he has been hurt for a good while and is now just getting back in to things. Did I see he had 7 assists?

BRob, looks like we have a skinny Theo wiht a jump shot there, read yesterday he weighs in at 153lbs, 6'5". Can a fella get a samich! LOL

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I am gonna reply respectfully, that is NOT a bad decision. Luke can play. Tony can play. Our Big rotation is a strength. With Theo out what becomes iffy is our perimeter rotation.

Yes, Luke and Tony can play. I just don't like them in the game together as much as I like Tony and Kennedy in the game together. If Roy won't play Tony and Kennedy together, that means more of Luke and Tony together. Roy is going to give us lots of combinations during the game. But until Luke and Tony prove themselves, that's the combo I like least.

Then again, Luke and Tony looked good in the exhibition game. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it up against better competition. But even if they do, I like the idea of Kennedy and Tony on the floor at the same time - except, maybe, against very quick teams.

 

[gary-7]

Yes, Luke and Tony can play. I just don't like them in the game together as much as I like Tony and Kennedy in the game together. If Roy won't play Tony and Kennedy together, that means more of Luke and Tony together. Roy is going to give us lots of combinations during the game. But until Luke and Tony prove themselves, that's the combo I like least.

Then again, Luke and Tony looked good in the exhibition game. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it up against better competition. But even if they do, I like the idea of Kennedy and Tony on the floor at the same time - except, maybe, against very quick teams.

Kennedy and Tony are both better suited for the 5 role, and while the 4 and 5 are technically interchangeable in much of the Carolina system, there are still some differences, as in defending further from the basket and wanting someone who can do more face-up on offense. And again, have no fears about Luke.

 

[HeelFan58]

Pembroke had decent size 6'9", 6"10" and a couple of 6'7" guys , so Luke didn't have a mismatch size wise..

 

[Archer2]

gary, buddy, I am not trying to be rude, but you selling me Sam Decker and maybe Luke can, dang I hope he can, but what tips off tonight and ends in march or april is not a scrimmage and it darn sure ain't some summer league game. Beginning tonight and now FINALLY for the next few months we will get to actually see and not have to speculate. With Theo out I sure hope that Luke can show what you suggest we should expect but these eyes got to see it first my friend and all I am saying is so far they have not.

I hope you're feeling a little better about Luke today. I know the competition was sub par but Luke just goes 100% all the time and can do a little bit of everything. He and Tony are already our best rebounders per minute played. If Kennedy and Isaiah boxed out and went to the boards as hard as Tony and Luke do, we wouldn't have this rebounding issue.

 

[DSouthr]

I hope you're feeling a little better about Luke today. I know the competition was sub par but Luke just goes 100% all the time and can do a little bit of everything. He and Tony are already our best rebounders per minute played. If Kennedy and Isaiah boxed out and went to the boards as hard as Tony and Luke do, we wouldn't have this rebounding issue.

I have seen some clips of Luke's play last night, looked like he was real scrappy but the thing about clips like that is they just show the good stuff, not the less than good. There are some specific things I need to see and I need to see a full game or a few before I am ready to make a solid opinion. Love his stat line, the one thing I saw from him that I did really love was that jump hook, now that looked like it could become a weapon. Honestly, for me, I think that should be the first offensive move any big man learns, a jump hook. It can nuetralize size disadvantage and that is IMO especially important for Luke.

 

[Archer2]

There are some specific things I need to see and I need to see a full game or a few before I am ready to make a solid opinion. Love his stat line, the one thing I saw from him that I did really love was that jump hook, now that looked like it could become a weapon. Honestly, for me, I think that should be the first offensive move any big man learns, a jump hook. It can nuetralize size disadvantage and that is IMO especially important for Luke.

Couldn't agree more. Can't for the life of me understand why Kennedy never developed one, hardest shot in basketball to block. It would do wonders for his lack of lift inside. Any highlights available?

 

[DSouthr]

For those that watched the game in full, were we better with Meeks and Hicks together or Hicks and Tony together? Cause I got to tell ya, for his first game against a real opponent in the Dean Dome in front of our fans, Tony's stat line just jumps off the page to me. 9pts 8 reb 4 blocks in 18mins?

I also want to say, 7th Woods, same first game in front of our fans at the Dome, just in last few days has been able to go full tilt in practice to come out with 9pts 3rebs and 7 assists is as well special stuff. Watching what Joel and Kenny had to say about 7th being a kid that will take the ball length of the court and run it right down your back really excites me to hear as well. I mean, that is Ty Lawson stuff...

And I do want to mention what I see kenny did in the box score, he has already doubled his 3pt total from last season so maybe we can put the question of him being able to shoot to rest? LOL

 

[Ozheelfan]

One thing you can count on, Roy is going to tinker/play around with/chop and change his line-ups a whole bunch in the first 10 or so games of the season.
So yeah, we may see some Tony+Kennedy action before ACC starts..... we might see a bunch of other weird combos too!

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Pembroke had decent size 6'9", 6"10" and a couple of 6'7" guys , so Luke didn't have a mismatch size wise..

Their 6'10 and 6'9 guys played a combined 26 minutes. Since one of them only played 3 minutes, there was only one of them in much of the game, and neither of them for a big chunk of the game.

You can bet that will be part of the reason why our guys will be getting an earful from Roy on rebounding.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

One thing you can count on, Roy is going to tinker/play around with/chop and change his line-ups a whole bunch in the first 10 or so games of the season.
So yeah, we may see some Tony+Kennedy action before ACC starts..... we might see a bunch of other weird combos too!

I agree. Roy always does that. It's part of the fun of the early season. And sometimes gives us some nail biters.

But there isn't a lot of time for tinkering. Maui could mean 2 foes in the top 10 or top 15. And the very next game is at Indiana.

Nate started for Theo (we know that because Roy previously said Theo would have started). But Nate had a mediocre game against weak opposition, so he may not hold onto that start. Kenny was pretty solid and both 7th and Brandon showed us some good stuff.

Not only are 3 of our first 8 games against top competition, but 6 of pour first 8 games are on the road.

Roy will need to tighten up quickly - although he can go back to experimentation for a few games between Indiana and Kentucky.

But the truth is that our schedule has fewer than usual easy games. So some of these youngsters - and maybe a few old-timers, too - are going to need to get serious fast.

 

[gary-7]

Couldn't agree more. Can't for the life of me understand why Kennedy never developed one, hardest shot in basketball to block. It would do wonders for his lack of lift inside. Any highlights available?

KM supposedly started using one this summer --- hope he pulls it out. He has definitely gotten pretty nifty with that reverse spin move.

 

[gary-7]

For those that watched the game in full, were we better with Meeks and Hicks together or Hicks and Tony together? Cause I got to tell ya, for his first game against a real opponent in the Dean Dome in front of our fans, Tony's stat line just jumps off the page to me. 9pts 8 reb 4 blocks in 18mins?

And I do want to mention what I see kenny did in the box score, he has already doubled his 3pt total from last season so maybe we can put the question of him being able to shoot to rest? LOL

In the first half he pretty much platooned the Bigs as tandems, but in the second he started mixing and matching more. But again, Roy wants KM and TB to be his 5s and IH and LM to be his 4s as much as possible. And I'm just gonna say it --- without Theo I did NOT like the "small" lineup we tried briefly at all.

As for KW, he showed himself as a complete, smooth 2 and should ideally start in Theo's absence.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Couldn't agree more. Can't for the life of me understand why Kennedy never developed one, hardest shot in basketball to block. It would do wonders for his lack of lift inside. Any highlights available?

The game is available for replay on WatchESPN, if you have access to that.

Be aware that there are audio glitches. It's not your equipment.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Is it just me or does Meeks look less cut than when he started last year?

 

[HeelFan58]

Their 6'10 and 6'9 guys played a combined 26 minutes. Since one of them only played 3 minutes, there was only one of them in much of the game, and neither of them for a big chunk of the game.

You can bet that will be part of the reason why our guys will be getting an earful from Roy on rebounding.

I , of course am not really familiar with their players but from the stands 6'7" and 6'9" don't look that different.. Their guys crashed the boards pretty hard and it seemed a lot of contact was just ignored , but we should have done a better job.

 

[Ozheelfan]

Is it just me or does Meeks look less cut than when he started last year?

In a round-about way it might be a blessing.
With Kennedy's dodgy knees he couldn't afford to do too much running work. I even suspect that the lengths he went to losing weight may have contributed to his injuries in the last two seasons.
Some guys can be great athletes without the 'typical' athlete body.

 

[DSouthr]

In the first half he pretty much platooned the Bigs as tandems, but in the second he started mixing and matching more. But again, Roy wants KM and TB to be his 5s and IH and LM to be his 4s as much as possible. And I'm just gonna say it --- without Theo I did NOT like the "small" lineup we tried briefly at all.

As for KW, he showed himself as a complete, smooth 2 and should ideally start in Theo's absence.

IMO, Theo was the key to our "small ball" last season. His quickness and aggressiveness to the ball was so key. The ability to switch off between he and Justin was great, Brob just doesn't have the bulk yet, I think he has the mindset but he needs to get bigger and stronger. I do think either kenny or 7th could physically handle the wing right now better than BRob can, BRob may be able to help us more at the 2. But vs big wings, don't sleep on Luke at the 3.

 

[Archer2]

I agree. Roy always does that. It's part of the fun of the early season. And sometimes gives us some nail biters.

But there isn't a lot of time for tinkering. Maui could mean 2 foes in the top 10 or top 15. And the very next game is at Indiana.

Not only are 3 of our first 8 games against top competition, but 6 of pour first 8 games are on the road.

Roy will need to tighten up quickly - although he can go back to experimentation for a few games between Indiana and Kentucky.

But the truth is that our schedule has fewer than usual easy games. So some of these youngsters - and maybe a few old-timers, too - are going to need to get serious fast.

QFT

 

[gary-7]

IMO, Theo was the key to our "small ball" last season. His quickness and aggressiveness to the ball was so key..

That says it all. I think (hope) that goes on the scrap heap until Theo returns.
That being said, when Luke is at the 4 it's very much like that because he is playing more of a Hybrid role this season.

 

[heels05champs]

To be a good rebounding team this year, Hicks and Meeks need to step up. A lot of being a good rebounder is "want to" and they need to display that. Maye is a good rebounder because he loves and desires to rebound. Need to see the same drive out of Jackson, Meeks and Hicks.

And dang, I sure do miss Theo. That small lineup and his help on the boards will be missed.