How Disruptive Will The Transfer Portal Be in Future Years?

[What Would Jesus Do?]

This year probably isn't a good predictor. All that pent up demand. COVID. But it seems likely that transfers going forward will be more disruptive than they were when you had to sit out a year. Most here seem to agree. Examples from a couple of our better posters...

I fully expect 1-2 transfers every year going forward.

I would be surprised if the NCAA doesn't rethink that rule.

While I'm sure we'll see more transfers than what was previously considered normal, I'm not quite as pessimistic as Steat. But if he's right, then Gary may turn out to be right, as well.

The thing I wonder about is who is likely to transfer. A few different possibilities.

1. Freshmen. I suspect there are a bunch of kids who commit and then that first year really doesn't go the way they expected. So they have a kind of buyer's remorse. They may also be homesick, if they came a long way. Most of the better players had multiple offers and sometimes the decision was a very close call. Their other top choices may still want them. So . . . I think we might see a bunch of kids who pull a Kessler as freshmen.

2. Players not getting much playing time. Maybe they aren't as good as they expected to be. Maybe they don't fit the coaching style or team concept. Maybe they just don't get along. These guys want to play more but for whatever reason they have seen the writing on the wall where they are. Time to look for greener pastures.

3. Kids who are recruited over. Pretty self-explanatory. It's your "turn" to start - or so you feel - yet the coach has just signed an OAD who will almost certainly be handed your starting role. Maybe you'd be willing to back up for another year, but then you are also running into the PT concern. And what's to keep the coach from recruiting over you again?

4. Players interested in coaching. Not as many fall in this category, but I can see kids hitting their junior year - especially kids who aren't stars - and thinking what they really want is a career in coaching. Kids like these have (presumably) already learned the style and methods of their current coach, and now they want a chance to learn from a coach who does things different ways.

5. Players who want to follow their coach. As I understand it, new recruits are free to decommit if there's a coaching change, but what about guys already on the team? Now they can follow the coach they signed up to play for if he leaves to coach at another school. [This could create other interesting problems, as well.]

Who else?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

If I were going to tweak the Transfer Portal rules to make them less disruptive, I might make it so that you only get to transfer without sitting out after you have been there 2 years. Don't make it so easy for the homesick kids to pull out before they've formed a bond and learned the system.

If it's true that most kids aren't really ready to play out of the gate, and most improve greatly as sophs, then this rule change would at least let the coach get the benefit of all that first year teaching before the kid bails. And I'd bet most wouldn't bail once all that teaching translates into playing well.

 

[uncfootball-]

You forgot players that have a mom or dad that doesnt like the amount of playing time they are getting.

 

[JimmyinVA]

6. players who are offered a sweeter endorsement deal than they're getting at their present school, alumni and boosters finally allowed to lure kids to their school with cash offers.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

7. Gullible kids who are manipulated by unscrupulous coaches or other "handlers" who tamper with them and convince them the grass is greener at a different U.

 

[tarheel0910]

While I'm sure we'll see more transfers than what was previously considered normal, I'm not quite as pessimistic as Steat. But if he's right, then Gary may turn out to be right, as well.

I would be shocked if they changed the rule back. The NCAA has been moving towards giving the players more rights for decades. Not only would that go against their history, it would also be a bad PR move for them.

 

[uncfootball-]

6. players who are offered a sweeter endorsement deal than they're getting at their present school, alumni and boosters finally allowed to lure kids to their school with cash offers.

Yep.. if Oregon is not in the Final Four every year the coach should be fired. If Oregon is not playing in the National Title game in football every other year then then coach should be fired.

 

[tarheel0910]

Yep.. if Oregon is not in the Final Four every year the coach should be fired. If Oregon is not playing in the National Title game in football every other year then then coach should be fired.

Not necessarily. Nike will sign contracts no matter where a recruit goes. Most of the NIL money is going to come from social media and local business. That means you want to go play in a large market (LA, NY, etc) or a college town that's crazy about sports (UNC, Alabama, etc). I also think one of the more overlooked moneymakers, especially for the Olympic sports, are summer camps. They won't make you a millionaire, but you could pocket some decent money doing those.