I'm Dreaming of a 7th Place Finish

[What Would Jesus Do?]

There. I said it. I've finally lowered expectations that much.

We can only lose 1 more game the rest of the way. Here's how I got to that conclusion.

After the Miami loss, Pomeroy projects us with a 10-9 conference record, good for an 8th place tie with Syracuse.

If the ACCT brackets get filled out as Pomeroy projects, we'll have a first round bye, giving us a rematch with Syracuse in our opener on Wednesday, March 8th.

We beat Syracuse on their court, but it wasn't exactly what anyone would call a convincing win (we blew a 10-pt lead and had to come back at the very end to win). Pete was the MVP in that game. He hasn't shown that lately.

Assuming we beat 'Cuse, we play Virginia for the 3rd time. So, unless we've really turned things around, that's probably the end of our ACCT run. And with a 21-12 overall record and hardly any quad 1 wins, the NIT is the best we are likely to do after that. If we don't beat Syracuse, even the NIT may not want us. But I think our name (and advertising value) probably gets us in.

Now obviously things will change before the regular season ends. But it would be a good idea for us to move up at least 1 spot.

If we can manage to finish in 7th place, our first game will be the winner of the 10/15 matchup. That's the winner of the FSU-Louisville game. Which, let's face it, is a MUCH BETTER path. And after we (presumably) beat FSU, we get a rematch with PITT. And that's something I'd really like to see.

I think we can beat Pitt. Which would then take us to another rematch - this time with Miami. Another juicy game I think we can win.

So, what I'm saying is that we need to end up in 7th place. Which means no more than 1 loss the rest of the way. Even that won't guarantee we move into 7th place - depending on what everyone else does we might still end up in 8th place and an early out - but it's our best shot.

 

[gunslingerdick]

Ooof. Wishing and hoping for a 7th place finish. I was alive for much of the 33 year streak where we never finished lower than 3rd. My how things have changed.

 

[kjcooper]

Expect us to be playing in the first round of the ACC tournament on Tuesday, March 7th. Probably only hope of making the NCAA tournament is to win 5 games in the ACC tournament in 5 days. Sorry, just being a realist with the way we are trending which is down.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Expect us to be playing in the first round of the ACC tournament on Tuesday, March 7th. Probably only hope of making the NCAA tournament is to win 5 games in the ACC tournament in 5 days. Sorry, just being a realist with the way we are trending which is down.

The main challenge to our first round bye looks to be VaTech. Pomeroy projects them to finish 9-11 in conference (vs our 11-9). But if they win 1 more than expected, while we lose 1 more than expected, we tie. And they have the tie-breaker.

Right now VaTech is 5-9 (we're 8-7) but 5 of their remaining 6 games are very winnable, whereas only 2 of our 5 remaining games look easy (knock on wood). So they could tie or pass us.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Ooof. Wishing and hoping for a 7th place finish. I was alive for much of the 33 year streak where we never finished lower than 3rd. My how things have changed.

As another oldtimer, I feel you.

 

[Goheels83]

As another oldtimer, I feel you.

And that’s when the acc was good

 

[imajericho]

Playing the winner of FSU/UL is very dangerous. You are playing a FSU team that is back to full strength now but I believe marks up as a Quad 4 team. A quad 4 loss and season is done regardless anyways. Not even a bubble to worry about.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Playing the winner of FSU/UL is very dangerous. You are playing a FSU team that is back to full strength now but I believe marks up as a Quad 4 team. A quad 4 loss and season is done regardless anyways. Not even a bubble to worry about.

Yeah, FSU is improving and might be dangerous. But still better than being in UVa's side of the bracket.

After Syracuse beat State tonight, Pomeroy projects us alone in 9th place (rather than tied with Syracuse for 8th). Not that it matters if it ends that way, since 8 plays 9 on day 2.

 

[heels05champs]

And that’s when the acc was good

That’s possibly the worst thing about it. We are terrible and that’s within a terrible ACC. Imagine this team in the days of a strong ACC.

 

[strummingram]

What a bad dream. WAKE UP!

This team isn't going to accomplish anything. They might get into the NIT... that's about it. We're over three-quarters of the way through the season. They, frankly, don't deserve to be in the NCAA tournament. They're just not a very good team. They're barely a decent team.

This is another disappointing season. Ever since 2017, UNC basketball has been on a slow, steady decline. Last March was great, but it was obviously not the norm.

 

[strummingram]

It's even more embarrassing that they started out with the Title Or Bust rallying cry. If you factor in the disparity of that, this is arguably the worst season/team since ... forever.

 

[kevindow]

Forgive me, but part of me wants a hard reset of the program. That would mean no NCAA or NIT. Also, drain the NIL money for players who should move on. And maybe bolster the coaching staff so the players are well trained on playing solid, lock-down defense, which they are currently lacking. An improved coaching staff would hopefully be more adept at making in-game adjustments on defense and offense. Overall, I think we have mediocre team with underwhelming coaching, and HD and/or the AD need to make some substantive changes.

 

[WoadBlue]

Ooof. Wishing and hoping for a 7th place finish. I was alive for much of the 33 year streak where we never finished lower than 3rd. My how things have changed.

Aint that the truth!

Well, everybody with power joining the religion of 'Keep It in Dean's Family' certainly hasn't helped. That greatly reduces the pool of candidates, and those outside 'The Family' know not to even try to get a hearing.

 

[WoadBlue]

That’s possibly the worst thing about it. We are terrible and that’s within a terrible ACC. Imagine this team in the days of a strong ACC.

That's a point I've made for years. ACC basketball didn't;pt just get down this season, and UNC didn't just start to look poorly coached and wildly inconsistent this season.

 

[gunslingerdick]

Aint that the truth!

Well, everybody with power joining the religion of 'Keep It in Dean's Family' certainly hasn't helped. That greatly reduces the pool of candidates, and those outside 'The Family' know not to even try to get a hearing.

I know that's an easy mark for people unhappy about our season. My contention is that Nate Oates, Eric Musselman or Mark Few would have this team playing about the same. In fact, probably worse considering Hubert at least had a head start on knowing the guys. If I'm being honest, blaming our situation on the "hiring inside the family" thing is lazy.

I have not been impressed with Hubert's coaching so far. But to expect a seamless transition of coaching change is absurd. It doesn't happen that way anywhere really. If we're struggling like this in year 3 and 4, then maybe it's time to panic.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

That's a point I've made for years. ACC basketball didn't;pt just get down this season, and UNC didn't just start to look poorly coached and wildly inconsistent this season.

To be fair, much of the last decade was negatively impacted by the NCAA cloud. We still got good enough players get to the championship twice, but we struggled to fill specific spots. When that cloud lifted, we were hit with COVID and nothing was normal. Sure, all teams faced the COVID problem, but it affected everybody differently. Add to that that Roy seemed to be struggling.

So, while you are right that the decline wasn't sudden, there have been reasons that were mostly beyond our control.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

We're capable of winning out the rest of the regular season. Unlikely, but certainly possible, considering the games against UVa and Duke are at home.

If that happens, we finish the regular season 21-10 and 13-7, and are almost certainly back in the top 25, with 2 Quad 1 wins.

That should be good for a 7 seed, give or take, shouldn't it?

OTOH, this team is just as likely to lose 3 or 4 of the remaining 5 games. Which sounds more like CBI territory.

 

[WoadBlue]

I know that's an easy mark for people unhappy about our season. My contention is that Nate Oates, Eric Musselman or Mark Few would have this team playing about the same. In fact, probably worse considering Hubert at least had a head start on knowing the guys. If I'm being honest, blaming our situation on the "hiring inside the family" thing is lazy.

I have not been impressed with Hubert's coaching so far. But to expect a seamless transition of coaching change is absurd. It doesn't happen that way anywhere really. If we're struggling like this in year 3 and 4, then maybe it's time to panic.

Roy was struggling his final few seasons. When you replace a struggling HC with one of his assistants, you are guaranteed ti keep some, perhaps most, of the struggling, because the new guy is not new: he was a key opal the whole staff that was struggling.

In this case, hiring within the family meant you were to not going to get away from Roy's issues fully.

But the point is much larger than than hiring, That demand to hire within the family come Hell or high water has worked exactly once: when Roy took the job. If Davis is let go after 4 years, and they maintain that demand, then the program could be set up for a huge tumble down.

If Wes wer to get Cincy back to the top, say reaching the Elite 8 and winning the Big 12 tournament, then he could prove to be like Roy. But not because he was in The Family. It would be because he had already proven elsewhere that he could do the job.

 

[WoadBlue]

We're capable of winning out the rest of the regular season. Unlikely, but certainly possible, considering the games against UVa and Duke are at home.

If that happens, we finish the regular season 21-10 and 13-7, and are almost certainly back in the top 25, with 2 Quad 1 wins.

That should be good for a 7 seed, give or take, shouldn't it?

OTOH, this team is just as likely to lose 3 or 4 of the remaining 5 games. Which sounds more like CBI territory.

Surely they would turn down CBI. But I would take NIT, for the experience. And if I were HC, I would play only guys who plan on returning in the NIT.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Surely they would turn down CBI. But I would take NIT, for the experience. And if I were HC, I would play only guys who plan on returning in the NIT.

I don't think this team has any room to be too proud to take a CBI bid. I share your sense that we should be too good for that but unless we really step up, maybe we aren't.

That said, I think winning most of the remaining games should be worth an NIT bid. So I don't expect us to face that choice.

I remember fondly the last time we went to the NIT. The successes there seemed to revitalize the team and prepared them and fans for a much better next season.

On the down side, we might not be that successful in the NIT this time around.

Since I like watching us play - warts and all - I'd want them to keep playing, no matter where.

 

[gunslingerdick]

If Wes wer to get Cincy back to the top, say reaching the Elite 8 and winning the Big 12 tournament, then he could prove to be like Roy. But not because he was in The Family. It would be because he had already proven elsewhere that he could do the job.

Then I guess that's what we're hoping for.

But more likely, the college basketball landscape has changed. It promotes parity now. So if you're yearning for the days of yore when we ran roughshod over the rest of the league, then you're going to be disappointed. Those days are over for everybody. There will be no dominant programs moving forward. That's my guess.

 

[WoadBlue]

Then I guess that's what we're hoping for.

But more likely, the college basketball landscape has changed. It promotes parity now. So if you're yearning for the days of yore when we ran roughshod over the rest of the league, then you're going to be disappointed. Those days are over for everybody. There will be no dominant programs moving forward. That's my guess.

I think it's clear that UK days of total domination of the SEC are over, because now most SEC programs finally have invested in a big way in basketball - they want to beat UK. But the ACC always had that league-wide emphasis.

The only reason UNC does not routinely finish in the top third of the ACC is that it no longer has the coach able to do so.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

But more likely, the college basketball landscape has changed. It promotes parity now. So if you're yearning for the days of yore when we ran roughshod over the rest of the league, then you're going to be disappointed. Those days are over for everybody. There will be no dominant programs moving forward. That's my guess.

Is there actually more parity or are things just being shaken up by the portal and NIL? If the latter, we might just be seeing some new teams and coaches rise to the top for those reasons.

Look at Pitt and Miami, for example. What are they doing on top of the ACC? But then look at their players. Lots of transfers.

Larranaga has always been good at getting transfers. If Capel is, too, those guys could be annoying us a lot from now on. Not only by beating us more than they should, but also by occupying our rightful position at or near the top of the ACC.

 

[GoNtheDistance]

assuming Hubert would coach in the NIT like he has the whole season, it would cause more harm than good to go to the NIT. High risk, low reward. Now if he grew a pair and decided to sit Love and others who weren't committed to playing the team game, then I'd at least be OK with us giving those other young guys experience and extended minutes. Outside of that, I have no desire to see this squad go somewhere in the NIT and get beat by a mid major while Caleb shoots us out of another game and we watch Pete Nance win a flat shot or least athletic contest.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

assuming Hubert would coach in the NIT like he has the whole season, it would cause more harm than good to go to the NIT. High risk, low reward. Now if he grew a pair and decided to sit Love and others who weren't committed to playing the team game, then I'd at least be OK with us giving those other young guys experience and extended minutes. Outside of that, I have no desire to see this squad go somewhere in the NIT and get beat by a mid major while Caleb shoots us out of another game and we watch Pete Nance win a flat shot or least athletic contest.

Play the guys who are certain they will be here next year. Give them a head start at being next year's team in real game situations.

That would also help identify what spots we need to fill from the portal.

I might make an exception for Armando. He's been carrying his weight. So if he wants to play in the NIT, he gets to, even if he plans to leave. Ditto for RJ, but I don't expect RJ to leave.

 

[al would]

by occupying our rightful position at or near the top of the ACC.

That might be a more true statement than you know because that's the way this motley crew has seemed to have played all season .. like they automatically deserved to win or like other teams were supposed to lay down and roll over. Soon the effortless season of "run it back" will be over and that core 4 bs can take a seat beside the 37-0 or whatever undefeated kensucky tshirts.

 

[sctarheel30]

As another oldtimer, I feel you.

Amen

 

[strummingram]

I'm dreaming of a team without Caleb Love!

 

[sctarheel30]

A seventh place finish and I recall many moons ago when we were never out of the top three and rarely out of top two.

 

[imajericho]

Play Davis Love Nickel Puff and Bacot. Please. Nance and Leaky first off the bench.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I'm dreaming of a team without Caleb Love!

I feel bad pinning so much of our problems on Caleb. After all, I really don't know if he is a big problem. Clearly he's pulled out some wins for us with star-like play. But he just so often seems to have a piss-poor attitude. That's just my impression from the look on his face and sometimes his body language. So I could be dead wrong.

I actually think he's doing better this year on the attitude thing. And while his shooting efficiency has sagged, year over year, his 3pt% has improved lately - 37.5% over the last 5 games. Will that be enough?

 

[tarheels0015]

Play Davis Love Nickel Puff and Bacot. Please. Nance and Leaky first off the bench

Nice thought ... will not happen though

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Play Davis Love Nickel Puff and Bacot. Please. Nance and Leaky first off the bench.

Davis
Leaky
Puff
Nickel
Bacot

...with D'Marco first off the bench.

I like that work ethic better.

Everybody has the green light once Bacot gets a touch.

 

[al would]

Davis
Leaky
Puff
Nickel
Bacot

Hate to say it but Leaky has (almost) become my greatest disappointment on this team simply because his offensive game is just soft. To bad his defensive aggression and effort never transferred to his offensive game.

 

[heels05champs]

Hate to say it but Leaky has (almost) become my greatest disappointment on this team simply because his offensive game is just soft. To bad his defensive aggression and effort never transferred to his offensive game.

I appreciate what Leaky gave this program for four years, but honestly think Carolina would have been better off if that would’ve been four years instead of five. It had hindered the development of Puff and Nickel and zero offensive production to show for it.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Hate to say it but Leaky has (almost) become my greatest disappointment on this team simply because his offensive game is just soft. To bad his defensive aggression and effort never transferred to his offensive game.

Leaky is exactly what we need him to be. If the other guys would do their parts we'd be fine. Alternatively, if any of his wannabee replacements were better than Leaky, they'd have his job.

Would I like Leaky to be better? Sure. I'd like all of them to be better. But if I had to start naming players who need to be better, Leaky wouldn't be high on the list.

 

[al would]

Leaky is exactly what we need him to be.

Get a grip WW. Leaky is an elite type defensive player but his use of his ability is plum fng pathetic when it comes to the offensive side. Pinson was a really great defender too but he used his abilities for other things. Anyone (coach) with a clue would have told Black to use his quickness and handle to attack the rack and shred defenses and either drive for a foul or attack the rack .. or drive and dish. I actually though he had NBA potential as both an elite defender and maybe even a Magic type pg but it seems someone talked him in to pigeon holing himself as just a defensive player and he could have easily been both.
Making a statement like "Leaky is exactly what we need him to be " is incredibly obtuse but I respect your opinion.

 

[strummingram]

It is interesting how a guy can be a totally lock-down defender and have such a timid offensive presence.

 

[sctarheel30]

At the very least we need to win out in the regular season and hope for a good run in the acct but all of that seems very unlikely

 

[kevindow]

Leaky is clearly not the problem. If the HC keeps such a player in the starting 5 with consistently subpar offensive performance and does not recruit over him or develop another player to replace him, then the responsibility is clearly on the HC. Leaky is a great guy and plays great defense, but he should not be a starter on a UNC team. And the fact that we likely don't have any capable "wannabe" replacements for Leaky falls squarely on the HC and coaching staff.