This may be the last installment of what's proving to be an exhaustive project and my main Tuesday assignment in the recruiting world. All good stuff, though, as we're clearing up a lot.
Moving on to linebacker
We've talked defensive backs (ideally they want two more), defensive tackles (ideally they want two great ones), and defensive ends (I'm guessing they take one more). So what about the linebackers?
In the first part of these notes I made mention that UNC sources are saying it's more likely that they take three linebackers -- a Sam, a Mike and a Will -- than five. That means numbers are tighter there than were previously believed. I'm sure someone could make a convincing or decent case about taking four linebackers as opposed to three and a scholarship long snapper, but it's a personal preference and the staff sees this roster all the time. I should amend the original post because I did not account for Tyrone Hopper. My understanding now, having sought clarification, is this:
-- Ideally UNC takes four linebackers. Hopper, Ross, Joyner and one of the other guys they feel great about from below. I mean, hypothetically, if they could land Smith, Joyner and Laguins or Hansford, sure, make room. Very unlikely.
-- Joyner is a third commit in any "best possible scenario" involving just three linebacker commitments.
-- Finish with Hopper, Ross and Smith. That may be acceptable. That fills the 'across the board' approach to balance the depth chart at Mike, Sam and Will that they're seeking, at least.
The point is, John Papuchis absolutely has three spots out of the expected 22 in this class. I do think there's a solid chance he ultimately gets four, because there is often some wiggle room at a couple of positions and UNC's got some really good options here.
Jonathan Smith absolutely has a spot. If UNC is just taking three linebackers and Dominique Ross and Tyrone Hopper are already giving them two all but assured, the staff feels like they can pretty well count on Smith at this point. It might not be quite that simple because he's still hearing from schools, talking to schools, and you can't count him for a long time. But he'd be an ideal 'Mike' candidate, I'd presume, and you have to think UNC's coaches feel good about where two of those three spots are going.
So who else is on the board? Ran it by sources and here are some names we need to watch closely: Keion Joyner (of course), Aaron Hansford, Jaleel Laguins, Blake Shepherd and Keith Simms.
I'll start with Shepherd, the least-talked about of the above bunch. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound 'athlete' from Buford, Ga., is teammates with Shug Frazier, the elite defensive tackle, and sources are telling me that it seems like UNC, NC State and Virginia Tech are currently running the strongest with him. He's got a really nice frame that's going to fill out a lot more and he carries all of that weight and length well. Solid hips, good fluidity, runs well.
We've reported that Simms, a four-star, is visiting UNC on Friday. That's not an isolated trip but is part of a week-long tour of schools in the area. Still, he's got legit interest in the program and if you get him on campus and make the case there's a number crunch, and things fall into place, you never know how he might feel.
Laguins is growing tired of talking recruiting in my experience with him -- understandable -- but we've got to at least keep talking about him if not frequently directly to him. Charlton Warren is doing the talking to and he seems to be doing a good job. One source with a good knowledge of Laguins' end of things told THI this week that he's strongly considering the Tar Heels, and I believe he'd be a take.
Of course, Joyner is a take whenever he wants to be a Tar Heel. Number two on the entire board behind Dexter Lawrence, no doubt. He hasn't had the best summer, frankly, but you're talking about a five-star kid that's slipped a few spots and is still considered a freak and potential All-American in college. He knows how UNC feels about him and I gather that he's really giving the Heels a much more serious look than even he expected to very early in the process, when he was telling us he would have to wait and see if UNC really could put a championship-contending product on the field. My hunch is the Chizik hire went a long way towards convincing Joyner that Fedora's serious about righting this thing
Hansford is a fantastic linebacker but I think there is probably a realistic assessment of the situation within the football offices, and in my mind he's probably going to be tough to reel in. They've made a much stronger run than I anticipated though. That's not a backhanded compliment, I just did not get the impression early that they were going to be in this as long as they have been.
Lot of scenarios here. They're either halfway or two-thirds of their way to the finished linebacker class. I'm not of the opinion that it's Joyner or bust for a great linebacker haul, because they love the duo they've got already and there are some other really nice players on the board, too. If I had to guess the most likely scenario as of today is that they sign Hopper, Ross and Smith, and next most likely for the fourth spot based on vibes/tone I'm getting and hearing would be Laguins and then too tough to say between Joyner, Shepherd and Simms.
The specialist spot
UNC seems pretty intent on letting Ben Wyatt take his time. Most long snappers don't have that luxury. Most long snappers with one Power Five scholarship offer -- with the one offer being from a school that's revamping an entire side of the ball under a new staff -- really do not have the luxury of taking their time.
Chris Kapilovic is the coach wooing Wyatt and there's definitely mutual interest but in my latest talk with Wyatt he strongly hinted that he doesn't want to be pressured and will not be pressured. He's intent on visiting Duke with the curious fact there being he doesn't want to redshirt, and Duke's saying they'll redshirt him. Meanwhile, UNC's all but guaranteeing the four-year starting role beginning as a true freshman, without outright guaranteeing it.
The real trouble for UNC in devoting a scholarship here -- and this is my commentary -- is the Stanford factor. Wyatt definitely likes them. The way he talked about them, it sounded as though they would be a force if they were to even give him admittance and a preferred walk-on opportunity. I don't get the impression that money is the concern it would be for most other kids and that walk-on deal isn't a deal breaker as it would be for some.
Stanford often doesn't find out about who would be accepted until very late in the process -- one reason why they would oppose an early signing period. Worst case scenario is Wyatt drags things out, forces UNC to restrict itself with artificially low numbers at other positions, then either commits to Duke or (worse) commits to UNC and then flips to Stanford late in the process. If that sounds horribly morbid and like pessimistic thinking, then hello. That's my job. If you think I'm the only one that thinks in those terms, and there aren't some in Chapel Hill wondering the same thing, you're kidding yourself.
They're being very good to Wyatt and have to hope it just pays off and quietly goes their way.
Summing everything up
Here's my best educated guess, based on some really good information that's come my way and gone out to you today.
QB - They're done. I will not write off the possibility that they could take a '17 QB regardless of what's been printed. In fact I know they're keeping '17 options open.
RB - Jordon Brown is the best case scenario. A bit of a bind if he goes elsewhere, and it's not a slam dunk. Thinking more one than two running backs right now.
WR - They've got two. They won't reach on a third. If they can get Deablo or even Phil Patterson, Larry Collins or someone like that, I think they find a way to make it happen. Keep in mind, when a school is thinking '22' is the magic number in July, that often magically stretches to 23 or 24 by February.
TE - May be happy with Turner. Have to be tight somewhere. He can be a do-it-all guy.
OL - Will not reach. Only someone they love. Pete Leota would qualify but they won't wait forever.
LS - Yes, Wyatt still has a spot. I don't know how long that remains the case. No reason to believe it's on the cusp of going away.
DE - My best guess is they end up with three. Add either Shaw, Fitzgerald, Morais, Brown or someone else. I do think they will ultimately take another speed guy that can help them get pressure with four.
DL - I'll put Nick Coe in this 'tweener category. I will also put Caleb Tillman here though I'm not sure the staff agrees. Right now I'm slightly more confident they get Tillman than Coe. They would probably take both if they could, I would imagine, since both are so versatile and able to be shaped to end or tackle.
DT - They are aiming high and they will take the best they can get. Lawrence, Smith, Campbell and Frazier are absolutely takes. If they get one, they get one and hope to complement that with either Tillman or Coe at DL and call it a great year inside. If they get two, they might be able to get really greedy and stack the deck on the front four with an epic class.
Overall defensive line summary -- possibilities are endless here. Want at least one pure, very good DT. Most important. Then I could see them taking another and maybe even another after that. 2-3 more DL's.
LB - Three or four total. Smith most likely to complement what they have. Joyner's always a take. Laguins tough to turn away.
DB - Two more. Pride, Rene tops on wish list. Watts, Pierre, Miller, Dorn and a host of others would be welcomed additions.
Eight spots left now, I'm guessing they stretch it to nine. Still have to make tough choices.
Moving on to linebacker
We've talked defensive backs (ideally they want two more), defensive tackles (ideally they want two great ones), and defensive ends (I'm guessing they take one more). So what about the linebackers?
In the first part of these notes I made mention that UNC sources are saying it's more likely that they take three linebackers -- a Sam, a Mike and a Will -- than five. That means numbers are tighter there than were previously believed. I'm sure someone could make a convincing or decent case about taking four linebackers as opposed to three and a scholarship long snapper, but it's a personal preference and the staff sees this roster all the time. I should amend the original post because I did not account for Tyrone Hopper. My understanding now, having sought clarification, is this:
-- Ideally UNC takes four linebackers. Hopper, Ross, Joyner and one of the other guys they feel great about from below. I mean, hypothetically, if they could land Smith, Joyner and Laguins or Hansford, sure, make room. Very unlikely.
-- Joyner is a third commit in any "best possible scenario" involving just three linebacker commitments.
-- Finish with Hopper, Ross and Smith. That may be acceptable. That fills the 'across the board' approach to balance the depth chart at Mike, Sam and Will that they're seeking, at least.
The point is, John Papuchis absolutely has three spots out of the expected 22 in this class. I do think there's a solid chance he ultimately gets four, because there is often some wiggle room at a couple of positions and UNC's got some really good options here.
Jonathan Smith absolutely has a spot. If UNC is just taking three linebackers and Dominique Ross and Tyrone Hopper are already giving them two all but assured, the staff feels like they can pretty well count on Smith at this point. It might not be quite that simple because he's still hearing from schools, talking to schools, and you can't count him for a long time. But he'd be an ideal 'Mike' candidate, I'd presume, and you have to think UNC's coaches feel good about where two of those three spots are going.
So who else is on the board? Ran it by sources and here are some names we need to watch closely: Keion Joyner (of course), Aaron Hansford, Jaleel Laguins, Blake Shepherd and Keith Simms.
I'll start with Shepherd, the least-talked about of the above bunch. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound 'athlete' from Buford, Ga., is teammates with Shug Frazier, the elite defensive tackle, and sources are telling me that it seems like UNC, NC State and Virginia Tech are currently running the strongest with him. He's got a really nice frame that's going to fill out a lot more and he carries all of that weight and length well. Solid hips, good fluidity, runs well.
We've reported that Simms, a four-star, is visiting UNC on Friday. That's not an isolated trip but is part of a week-long tour of schools in the area. Still, he's got legit interest in the program and if you get him on campus and make the case there's a number crunch, and things fall into place, you never know how he might feel.
Laguins is growing tired of talking recruiting in my experience with him -- understandable -- but we've got to at least keep talking about him if not frequently directly to him. Charlton Warren is doing the talking to and he seems to be doing a good job. One source with a good knowledge of Laguins' end of things told THI this week that he's strongly considering the Tar Heels, and I believe he'd be a take.
Of course, Joyner is a take whenever he wants to be a Tar Heel. Number two on the entire board behind Dexter Lawrence, no doubt. He hasn't had the best summer, frankly, but you're talking about a five-star kid that's slipped a few spots and is still considered a freak and potential All-American in college. He knows how UNC feels about him and I gather that he's really giving the Heels a much more serious look than even he expected to very early in the process, when he was telling us he would have to wait and see if UNC really could put a championship-contending product on the field. My hunch is the Chizik hire went a long way towards convincing Joyner that Fedora's serious about righting this thing
Hansford is a fantastic linebacker but I think there is probably a realistic assessment of the situation within the football offices, and in my mind he's probably going to be tough to reel in. They've made a much stronger run than I anticipated though. That's not a backhanded compliment, I just did not get the impression early that they were going to be in this as long as they have been.
Lot of scenarios here. They're either halfway or two-thirds of their way to the finished linebacker class. I'm not of the opinion that it's Joyner or bust for a great linebacker haul, because they love the duo they've got already and there are some other really nice players on the board, too. If I had to guess the most likely scenario as of today is that they sign Hopper, Ross and Smith, and next most likely for the fourth spot based on vibes/tone I'm getting and hearing would be Laguins and then too tough to say between Joyner, Shepherd and Simms.
The specialist spot
UNC seems pretty intent on letting Ben Wyatt take his time. Most long snappers don't have that luxury. Most long snappers with one Power Five scholarship offer -- with the one offer being from a school that's revamping an entire side of the ball under a new staff -- really do not have the luxury of taking their time.
Chris Kapilovic is the coach wooing Wyatt and there's definitely mutual interest but in my latest talk with Wyatt he strongly hinted that he doesn't want to be pressured and will not be pressured. He's intent on visiting Duke with the curious fact there being he doesn't want to redshirt, and Duke's saying they'll redshirt him. Meanwhile, UNC's all but guaranteeing the four-year starting role beginning as a true freshman, without outright guaranteeing it.
The real trouble for UNC in devoting a scholarship here -- and this is my commentary -- is the Stanford factor. Wyatt definitely likes them. The way he talked about them, it sounded as though they would be a force if they were to even give him admittance and a preferred walk-on opportunity. I don't get the impression that money is the concern it would be for most other kids and that walk-on deal isn't a deal breaker as it would be for some.
Stanford often doesn't find out about who would be accepted until very late in the process -- one reason why they would oppose an early signing period. Worst case scenario is Wyatt drags things out, forces UNC to restrict itself with artificially low numbers at other positions, then either commits to Duke or (worse) commits to UNC and then flips to Stanford late in the process. If that sounds horribly morbid and like pessimistic thinking, then hello. That's my job. If you think I'm the only one that thinks in those terms, and there aren't some in Chapel Hill wondering the same thing, you're kidding yourself.
They're being very good to Wyatt and have to hope it just pays off and quietly goes their way.
Summing everything up
Here's my best educated guess, based on some really good information that's come my way and gone out to you today.
QB - They're done. I will not write off the possibility that they could take a '17 QB regardless of what's been printed. In fact I know they're keeping '17 options open.
RB - Jordon Brown is the best case scenario. A bit of a bind if he goes elsewhere, and it's not a slam dunk. Thinking more one than two running backs right now.
WR - They've got two. They won't reach on a third. If they can get Deablo or even Phil Patterson, Larry Collins or someone like that, I think they find a way to make it happen. Keep in mind, when a school is thinking '22' is the magic number in July, that often magically stretches to 23 or 24 by February.
TE - May be happy with Turner. Have to be tight somewhere. He can be a do-it-all guy.
OL - Will not reach. Only someone they love. Pete Leota would qualify but they won't wait forever.
LS - Yes, Wyatt still has a spot. I don't know how long that remains the case. No reason to believe it's on the cusp of going away.
DE - My best guess is they end up with three. Add either Shaw, Fitzgerald, Morais, Brown or someone else. I do think they will ultimately take another speed guy that can help them get pressure with four.
DL - I'll put Nick Coe in this 'tweener category. I will also put Caleb Tillman here though I'm not sure the staff agrees. Right now I'm slightly more confident they get Tillman than Coe. They would probably take both if they could, I would imagine, since both are so versatile and able to be shaped to end or tackle.
DT - They are aiming high and they will take the best they can get. Lawrence, Smith, Campbell and Frazier are absolutely takes. If they get one, they get one and hope to complement that with either Tillman or Coe at DL and call it a great year inside. If they get two, they might be able to get really greedy and stack the deck on the front four with an epic class.
Overall defensive line summary -- possibilities are endless here. Want at least one pure, very good DT. Most important. Then I could see them taking another and maybe even another after that. 2-3 more DL's.
LB - Three or four total. Smith most likely to complement what they have. Joyner's always a take. Laguins tough to turn away.
DB - Two more. Pride, Rene tops on wish list. Watts, Pierre, Miller, Dorn and a host of others would be welcomed additions.
Eight spots left now, I'm guessing they stretch it to nine. Still have to make tough choices.
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