It's not a great sign we struggled against Arkansas... The style that Arkansas wants to play should fit into our hands. But the problem is we have 1 natural point guard. Nate really isn't a PG. He just plays PG because he has to. Nate played well against Arkansas and we don't win if he isn't there, but if you cut off Berry, this is a team that can reasonably lose to any team in the tournament minus 15 or 16 seeds.
Also, this isn't the highest basketball IQ team Roy has had. Paige had a pretty poor year, but he was smart. Johnson didn't have great basketball IQ, but compared to Hicks, Johnson is a basketball genius. We all love Theo, but he'll give the opponent maybe 7 free points per game just off bad passes or bad shots that lead to fast breaks.
IMO, this team has overachieved this season. We replaced a first team all american with Hicks... Hicks is fine, but he isn't a first team all american. We replaced Paige essentially with Pinson... Give me Paige 10 days/week.
I'm really fearing the Butler game. Chris Holtmann gets 5 days to prepare for us... They're disciplined and won't give us anything for free.
Some of your post has merit, but overall I sure don't think getting to Sweet 16 (beating a 16 and an 8 on a nearly home court) is overachieving. Winning the ACC by 2 games maybe is an over-achieve but that has more to do with Duke underperforming.
Paige didn't have a poor year last year. He just didn't. He struggled midyear with shooting, was hurt early, but recall in the ACC and NCAA tourney he was basically locked in and unstoppable. When it mattered most.
I agree with you for the most part comparing Brice to Isaiah. I'd rather have Brice, straight up.
But - you have totally ignored, overlooked, failed to mention what we have this year vs. last year.
*ACC POY JJ : vastly improved in every aspect of the game vs. last year
*A better overall, more experienced Joel Berry (when healthy)
*A giant leap in the productivity of Kennedy Meeks. This change is larger maybe even than JJ's upgrade.
*Tony Bradley. Who was our Tony Bradley last year, who could come in when Isaiah got his third foul in 10 minutes of playing time in the first half.
General improvements just due to year-to-year growth and experience, for Luke, and even for Pinson; and Britt; knowing when to shoot or not shoot, playing smarter defense.
For the record I have us going out at hands of UCLA in Elite 8. Not sure if that makes us a lesser team this year. We just have a harder path this year IMO. I don't remember who we beat last year to go to Final Four (maybe Indiana?) but I don't think we had to beat teams like Butler and UK/UCLA winner to get there.