Just Got Back From The Dook Game...

[gauchoheel]

Got a free ticket for my first experience at Cameron. Trippy is already back, and the crowd was going nuts every score even when they were up by 45.

We better step it up like Maui once Theo gets back, and we better get Knox for next year. I do not want to lose to these bums on either count.

 

[bleeduncblue]

We will split ... if we're lucky.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

But did you get a good hot shower afterwards with Lysol?

 

[gauchoheel]

But did you get a good hot shower afterwards with Lysol?

Yep, did my laundry too. Optimum dry.

 

[toophly1124]

We will split ... if we're lucky.

Real lucky.

 

[gauchoheel]

Real lucky.

Where is this pessimism coming from? They're less than 3 points better than us on Kenpom. We barely lost to Kentucky. We'll be real lucky to split? Get out of here.

 

[GoToHeelDook]

Totally agree. Even in a year when they are far and away better than us these games are close.

What a ridiculous statement. We could show up and easily sweep them, with their youth/chemistry issues. Matter of fact, I haven't seen anything to convince me they don't. They lose 2 of the 3 games that we've lost 9 out of 10 times.

Get a grip. They looked good against GT. So what. So will most people. They're far from world beaters at the moment.

Where is this pessimism coming from? They're less than 3 points better than us on Kenpom. We barely lost to Kentucky. We'll be real lucky to split? Get out of here.

 

[toophly1124]

Where is this pessimism coming from? They're less than 3 points better than us on Kenpom. We barely lost to Kentucky. We'll be real lucky to split? Get out of here.

Ok where shall I go? Being that Kenpom is suddenly miss Cleo. Barely lost to Kentucky is your argument? Losing to GT is mine then. See how that works?

 

[strummingram]

Ok where shall I go? Being that Kenpom is suddenly miss Cleo. Barely lost to Kentucky is your argument? Losing to GT is mine then. See how that works?

And, now they have the Solid Gold lineup on the court.

 

[GoToHeelDook]

It actually doesn't work.

What you're ignoring is the history of the rivalry, and the fact that over the last 20 years we're separated by what? 2 points or so?

These games are pretty much always tight. It's not a off day anomaly against Georgia Tech or a barn burner against UK in December...it's Carolina freaking Duke. We will not be "really lucky" to split. Period.

Ok where shall I go? Being that Kenpom is suddenly miss Cleo. Barely lost to Kentucky is your argument? Losing to GT is mine then. See how that works?

 

[TarHeelNation11]

In our last 15 games against Duke, we're 4-11.

The same dominance we have over State, Duke has over us right now.

 

[toophly1124]

It actually doesn't work.

What you're ignoring is the history of the rivalry, and the fact that over the last 20 years we're separated by what? 2 points or so?

These games are pretty much always tight. It's not a off day anomaly against Georgia Tech or a barn burner against UK in December...it's Carolina freaking Duke. We will not be "really lucky" to split. Period.

I'm not ignoring shit. Your OPINION is that we won't have to be lucky to split w dook my OPINION is that we will. PERIOD. It's fuggin opinions NOTHING you say can change that to a fact. PERIOD.

 

[toophly1124]

In our last 15 games against Duke, we're 4-11.

The same dominance we have over State, Duke has over us right now.

@GoToHeelDook i stand corrected here's a FACT for you.

 

[GoToHeelDook]

1) That's incorrect. Our dominance over State has had far more longetivy since Roy came to town. We've owned them for almost two decades, not 5 years.

2) Over those five years you are referencing many of those games have been INCREDIBLY close, two have been comeback efforts by Duke that never should've happened, 2 have gone to OT. We typically beat the crap out of State. Duke doesn't typically beat the crap out of us. These games, once again, are ALMOST ALWAYS close. Duke has been on the receiving end of that lately, but this rivalry is cyclical. It can turn around this year and us be 11-4 over the next 15. That's just the way it goes.

With as close as these games are- the statement we would be "really lucky" to split with Duke can only work if Duke is considered "really lucky" to split with us. The games are just too close to call it one way or the other with confidence.

In our last 15 games against Duke, we're 4-11.

The same dominance we have over State, Duke has over us right now.

 

[GoToHeelDook]

Easy there champ. Have a beer.

I'm not ignoring shit. Your OPINION is that we won't have to be lucky to split w dook my OPINION is that we will. PERIOD. It's fuggin opinions NOTHING you say can change that to a fact. PERIOD.

 

[toophly1124]

Easy there champ. Have a beer.

As we speak.

 

[GoToHeelDook]

Good on ya. Right behind ya.

As we speak.

 

[gauchoheel]

I'm not ignoring shit. Your OPINION is that we won't have to be lucky to split w dook my OPINION is that we will. PERIOD. It's fuggin opinions NOTHING you say can change that to a fact. PERIOD.

Your opinion just doesn't have much merit behind it though. Based on the season so far Carolina and Duke are similar quality teams. Duke has been slightly better. Given that home court advantage is worth 3-4 points we should be even odds if not 1-2 point favorites for the game in Chapel Hill. For the Durham game we'd be 6-7 point 'dogs.

So I'm not sure what your idea of "real lucky is", but if we have a 50/50 game and a game with only a 30% chance of winning, that means we have a 65% chance of splitting or sweeping the series. I wouldn't call that "real lucky". Duke would have to be 10 points or so per game better than us to get into that kind of territory, and you'll find few people who believe there is that large of a gap.

I'm just as concerned about Knox as the two games. Unfortunately you may be right there.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

1) That's incorrect. Our dominance over State has had far more longetivy since Roy came to town. We've owned them for almost two decades, not 5 years.

2) Over those five years you are referencing many of those games have been INCREDIBLY close, two have been comeback efforts by Duke that never should've happened, 2 have gone to OT. We typically beat the crap out of State. Duke doesn't typically beat the crap out of us. These games, once again, are ALMOST ALWAYS close. Duke has been on the receiving end of that lately, but this rivalry is cyclical. It can turn around this year and us be 11-4 over the next 15. That's just the way it goes.

With as close as these games are- the statement we would be "really lucky" to split with Duke can only work if Duke is considered "really lucky" to split with us. The games are just too close to call it one way or the other with confidence.

I repeat, 4-11 in our last 15. Were a lot of them close? Yep. Your point? Close losses count the same as big losses. We coulda/shoulda/woulda won more.........but we didn't.

You're correct that I was being a bit hyperbolic on comparing Duke's dominance over us with our dominance over State -- please note, I'm using W/Ls as an indicator of dominance, not margin of victory -- but honestly, it's approaching that territory. We're 13-2 against State in our last 15 with them. That's only two games better than Duke's record against us in the last 15.

 

[toophly1124]

Splitting hairs man. I have my suspicion that you don't think we'll sweep dook. So you're thinking we'll split? And that can totally happen. I will just feel lucky to do so. I'm not discrediting our team it's just what I see and feel. Nothing more. Nothing less.

 

[Butterbutt44]

I feel like its a split this year. Yes the games have been very close--but the fact is we are losing most of those close ones. and I can think of 3 of them that we had by the throat and choked away. Last year was one of the most vomit inducing losses to them I can remember. Maybe The rivers shot in 2012. Both those years we shouldve swept them easily. I could say what I feel is the common denominator causing this but Ive taken enough "thread Bans" as of late.

 

[gauchoheel]

Splitting hairs man. I have my suspicion that you don't think we'll sweep dook. So you're thinking we'll split? And that can totally happen. I will just feel lucky to do so. I'm not discrediting our team it's just what I see and feel. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Given the 50/50 game in Chapel HIll and 30% game in Durham (just my ballpark estimates but I think pretty fair), this would be the odds of each outcome:

Duke sweep: 35%
Split: 50%
UNC sweep: 15%

I would stand by those estimates as fairly closely approximating reality, yes. So you're right in that it's unlikely that we sweep them. It's also pretty pessimistic to say we are unlikely to even get a split. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Butterbutt44]

edit

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Given the 50/50 game in Chapel HIll and 30% game in Durham (just my ballpark estimates but I think pretty fair), this would be the odds of each outcome:

Duke sweep: 35%
Split: 50%
UNC sweep: 15%

I would stand by those estimates as fairly closely approximating reality, yes. So you're right in that it's unlikely that we sweep them. It's also pretty pessimistic to say we are unlikely to even get a split. That's all I'm saying.

Based on actual data, over the last 15, our probability of winning a game against Duke is 4/15 = 26.66%

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

I think a split is the most likely outcome.

Given the 50/50 game in Chapel HIll and 30% game in Durham (just my ballpark estimates but I think pretty fair), this would be the odds of each outcome:

Duke sweep: 35%
Split: 50%
UNC sweep: 15%

I would stand by those estimates as fairly closely approximating reality, yes. So you're right in that it's unlikely that we sweep them. It's also pretty pessimistic to say we are unlikely to even get a split. That's all I'm saying.

I think those odds are reasonable. Split would be most likely in my opinion. At least one game will be very very tight, and there is a good chance both will be.

Based on health and chemistry, it will be better to catch Duke early in the schedule. The first game of this series is at Cameron and the final game is at the Dome. You can make the argument that UNC has a better than normal chance of sweeping because they catch Duke at home early while Duke is still transitioning players (and coaches), dealing with injuries and tweaking their lineup. UNC wins that game and just has to defend home court. But you could also flip that argument to say the schedule sets up better for Duke because they have the luxury of playing at home during these growing pains and by the time they go to chapel hill, they should be fully healthy and intact.

My guess is both teams win at home, and I have a hunch there will be a third meeting...

 

[al would]

Since they have the only player in college athletics that can perform the (nearly impossible) Ric Flair flying figure 4 leg lock on defense they should be able to waltz through their cakewalk bracket all the way to the NCAA title in '17 .. no sweat .. my $$'s on trip & co.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

Based on actual data, over the last 15, our probability of winning a game against Duke is 4/15 = 26.66%

Past performances don't impact future results in this case. Sure they're slightly correlated because some of the players are the same as in some of those past games, but I'd put the actual probability of beating dook closer to whatever the Vegas moneyline (with the juice taken out) turns out to be. Which for the game in CH will absolutely be over 50% (we'll be favored) and I'd estimate us to be around +200 in Durham which implies a 33% chance of winning that one.

 

[gauchoheel]

Past performances don't impact future results in this case. Sure they're slightly correlated because some of the players are the same as in some of those past games, but I'd put the actual probability of beating dook closer to whatever the Vegas moneyline (with the juice taken out) turns out to be. Which for the game in CH will absolutely be over 50% (we'll be favored) and I'd estimate us to be around +200 in Durham which implies a 33% chance of winning that one.

Exactly. If you think the team 8 years ago has any bearing on the team's chances this year... you're sorely mistaken. They (obviously) don't even share a single player with that previous team.

The actual data from this year (which is what matters for the most part) shows that the teams are very similar so far. Duke is probably slightly better. Now if Duke starts playing like they played GT every game then sure, let's adjust our estimates. If we play like we did against GT every game, sure let's adjust our estimates. But over the body of work so far the two teams have been similar. Duke has had some injuries that impacted their numbers, but we haven't had Pinson all year. So I'm not sure I'd adjust much for injuries right now either.

 

[Prof C]

Given the 50/50 game in Chapel HIll and 30% game in Durham (just my ballpark estimates but I think pretty fair), this would be the odds of each outcome:

Duke sweep: 35%
Split: 50%
UNC sweep: 15%

I can appreciate stats done correctly. Kudos gaucho!

 

[gauchoheel]

I can appreciate stats done correctly. Kudos gaucho!

Just finished my data analytics class as part of my master's at UNC, I better get those numbers right!!

 

[JuleZ '02 HEEL]

Based on health and chemistry, it will be better to catch Duke early in the schedule. The first game of this series is at Cameron and the final game is at the Dome. You can make the argument that UNC has a better than normal chance of sweeping because they catch Duke at home early while Duke is still transitioning players (and coaches), dealing with injuries and tweaking their lineup. UNC wins that game and just has to defend home court. But you could also flip that argument to say the schedule sets up better for Duke because they have the luxury of playing at home during these growing pains and by the time they go to chapel hill, they should be fully healthy and intact.

Love this. Had to check and see if it was posted by @coryfly.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

Oh, a player from 8 years ago isn't on the current team? Damn, I had NO idea!

Losing that often to a rival starts to permeate the program, even though the roster turns over. It becomes a weight and a pressure on the current roster to break the trend. It absolutely can carry over. It's like how the football team can't beat a brand name OOC opponent because they're scared to death of it. We can't get over that hump and it makes each new contest even more stressful.

 

[DSouthr]

Totally agree. Even in a year when they are far and away better than us these games are close.

What a ridiculous statement. We could show up and easily sweep them, with their youth/chemistry issues. Matter of fact, I haven't seen anything to convince me they don't. They lose 2 of the 3 games that we've lost 9 out of 10 times.

Get a grip. They looked good against GT. So what. So will most people. They're far from world beaters at the moment.

I think both teams have some development to do before that first duke game and as always it will be a war, neither team should feel real cocky right now.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

Oh, a player from 8 years ago isn't on the current team? Damn, I had NO idea!

Ya you did, now you're just selling yourself short...

Losing that often to a rival starts to permeate the program, even though the roster turns over. It becomes a weight and a pressure on the current roster to break the trend. It absolutely can carry over. It's like how the football team can't beat a brand name OOC opponent because they're scared to death of it. We can't get over that hump and it makes each new contest even more stressful.

But seriously, if you're offering up 11/4 odds (i.e. +275 moneline) for either of the dook games, let me know where to sign up.

 

[gauchoheel]

Oh, a player from 8 years ago isn't on the current team? Damn, I had NO idea!

Losing that often to a rival starts to permeate the program, even though the roster turns over. It becomes a weight and a pressure on the current roster to break the trend. It absolutely can carry over. It's like how the football team can't beat a brand name OOC opponent because they're scared to death of it. We can't get over that hump and it makes each new contest even more stressful.

Have to disagree with you. Would love to see statistical evidence to the contrary, but I doubt there is any "permeation" effect. These guys just don't care that much what happened 5 years ago, as they shouldn't. Completely irrelevant to them. Look at the corollary, do you honestly think how well Jahlil Okafor did improves Jayson Tatum's confidence? I'm going to say no. The people playing high level D-1 basketball are typically pretty confident guys. And Clemson never beats us, yet they were a free throw rimming out away from doing so. Do you think the losing streak hurt them? I just don't.

Our football team can't beat SEC teams because we simply aren't that good most years. And Duke has been better at basketball lately, so 4-11 isn't all that surprising. This year though, the teams are similar so far.

 

[GoToHeelDook]

And that's all fair and good, but don't miss the point about this rivalry being cyclical. From 05-09 the stats looked like this in our favor. As well as the mid 90s. Duke had the leg up on us in the late 90s/early 2000s. I'm just saying it ebs and it flows. You know that as well as I do.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest that anyone will be "really lucky" to split the series this year. We are both ranked in the top 15, save for one bad loss for us we're both top 10. The games will carry a -5 point line either way and probably much smaller than that. And given how both teams get up for these games, and our veterans against their youthful talent, they will likely be wars.

I just don't think anyone is going to be really lucky to split. I'm not going to move on that. As Gaucho's stats suggest, it's a 50% probability that we split. That makes it not lucky, that makes it the expectation.

I repeat, 4-11 in our last 15. Were a lot of them close? Yep. Your point? Close losses count the same as big losses. We coulda/shoulda/woulda won more.........but we didn't.

You're correct that I was being a bit hyperbolic on comparing Duke's dominance over us with our dominance over State -- please note, I'm using W/Ls as an indicator of dominance, not margin of victory -- but honestly, it's approaching that territory. We're 13-2 against State in our last 15 with them. That's only two games better than Duke's record against us in the last 15.

 

[GoToHeelDook]

This.

Have to disagree with you. Would love to see statistical evidence to the contrary, but I doubt there is any "permeation" effect. These guys just don't care that much what happened 5 years ago, as they shouldn't. Completely irrelevant to them. Look at the corollary, do you honestly think how well Jahlil Okafor did improves Jayson Tatum's confidence? I'm going to say no. The people playing high level D-1 basketball are typically pretty confident guys. And Clemson never beats us, yet they were a free throw rimming out away from doing so. Do you think the losing streak hurt them? I just don't.

Our football team can't beat SEC teams because we simply aren't that good most years. And Duke has been better at basketball lately, so 4-11 isn't all that surprising. This year though, the teams are similar so far.