We all want Cole to be even better than Coby was last year, but that's an incredibly high bar for any player, let alone a freshman. So just how good can he be?
In this post I'm going to try to compare Cole to Coby White and the best freshman offensive point guard in recent memory, Trae Young. I am going to use EYBL stats as a primary barometer, because all three guys played in this league against similar competition, albeit on a fairly small sample size (21 games for Cole and Coby, 24 for Trae). If you follow the NBA draft Twitter scene there's some research showing EYBL stats correlate even to NBA performance, so I think there's some value to this exercise despite the high amounts of variance in the numbers.
I also watched Oak Hill's two games in the Geico Nationals, so will don my amateur scouting hat at times. Feel free to disagree and take all this with a grain of salt. It's just for fun because I'm excited to see him in Carolina Blue. Let's begin.
SHOOTING:
Cole: 26.8 PPG, 48.5% 2-pt, 38.0% 3-pt, 89.2% FT
Coby: 20.1 PPG, 64.4% 2-pt, 31.3% 3-pt, 70.6% FT
Trae: 23.2 PPG, 59.1% 2-pt, 35.9% 3-pt, 87.0% FT
Cole was the top scorer in the entire EYBL this year whereas Coby was 7th. You can see how dominant he was, and Trae and Cole both look like better shooters than Coby. I will say Coby shot better at USA basketball and I believe in regular high school ball too, whereas Cole was a bit lower from three (36.6%) at Oak Hill.
In the two games I saw Cole has similar step backs and other moves to create space for himself like both of these guys did. From the free throw percentage it's clear he has great shooting touch, and I expect him to be a good shooter right away. Neither Coby nor Trae shot great percentages from three in college, but that was because they were such great scorers that their team expected them to take lots of tough, contested jumpers. I expect the same will be true of Cole. With lower usage I think all three can shoot 40%+. Cole does have a bit different release compared to the quick release of the other two guys; will be interesting to see how that translates.
The one thing that is concerning is the low 2-point percentage compared to the other two. Trae played on the best team (with both Jontay and Michael Porter on it), but Coby had to lead everything on his own like Cole. Cole doesn't look as fast to Coby to me and he's clearly not as tall, so I think he needs to learn more creative finishing moves to score. He also took more shots than either of them, so some of it may be taking tough, contested twos when his team needs a shot. Will be fascinating to see how his passing evolves at UNC with much more talented teammates than he's ever played with.
PASSING:
Cole: 3.8 A/G, 3.6 TO/G
Coby: 3.0 A/G, 2.5 TO/G
Trae: 7.1 A/G, 3.6 TO/G
The stats tell us something here, but I think there's more to it. Scouts like Cole's passing quite a bit, and I think he'll look better than Coby here. The two games I saw he made a number of fantastic passes: a bunch of fast break bombs (we'll love his passing in transition), a full court bounce pass, shovel passes, baseline skip passes, etc. I don't think he's an elite passer right now and Trae was clearly better at this point, but Trae also had more talented teammates. We should see some positive gains compared to last year in terms of Cole's creation ability.
On the turnover point, I do think he'll have ups and downs like Coby and Trae both had. In the games I saw he had a few difficulties once full court pressed, and I think it's hard for any freshman to control the mistakes when they're the focal point of the offense.
REBOUNDING:
Cole: 7.8 RB/G
Coby: 3.8 RB/G
Trae: 3.5 RB/G
Simply put, Cole is a much better rebounder than either Coby or Trae. For one, I think he has quite a bit more leaping ability. He's an above the rim player despite only being 6'3" in shoes, capable of athletic dunks and blocks. It also speaks to his intuitive understanding of positioning, functional athleticism, and competitiveness. I think adding Cole and Bacot's rebounding will help get us back to the dominant rebounding teams that we saw in the title game years.
DEFENSE
Cole: 1.5 ST/G, 0.3 B/G
Coby: 1.2 ST/G, 0.2 B/G
Trae: 2.3 ST/G, 0.1 B/G
None of these guys are lock-down defenders really, but Cole shines in help defense and I think we'll see an upgrade there. He's smart with rotations and had a number of good close outs, contests inside, and help steals. I think this will help us some with open three point shooters and Cole will get more fast break steals than Coby did. Trae also had a knack for this obviously, even maybe gambling a bit too much. None of them had many blocks, but 6 for Cole in 21 games vs 2 for Trae in 24 games does mean something. Cole is more of a leaper and can actually help a bit in interior defense. He also took a couple charges.
I did notice Cole get beat off the dribble, particularly by junior point guard Mike Saunders of Wasatch (who I was surprised was not ranked in the 247 top 200). He wasn't always in a low stance and sliding quickly, similar to what I saw of Nas Little sometimes. Hopefully Roy can work on that. I don't expect any of them to ever be lock down 1-on-1 defenders, but Coby does have the nice height advantage that I think disrupted some guards when trying to shoot.
OVERALL
Tons to be excited about, as I think Cole is right up there with Coby and Trae with the potential to be the best overall player. He should be a great shooter from day one, he's a very good passer, provides the best overall defensive and rebounding passage, and has top-notch intangibles and understanding of the game. What he'll probably try to improve is finishing at the rim with creative shots or simply forgoing his own shot and passing it out sometimes, developing even better pick and roll passes, and working on his 1-on-1 defensive technique.
In this post I'm going to try to compare Cole to Coby White and the best freshman offensive point guard in recent memory, Trae Young. I am going to use EYBL stats as a primary barometer, because all three guys played in this league against similar competition, albeit on a fairly small sample size (21 games for Cole and Coby, 24 for Trae). If you follow the NBA draft Twitter scene there's some research showing EYBL stats correlate even to NBA performance, so I think there's some value to this exercise despite the high amounts of variance in the numbers.
I also watched Oak Hill's two games in the Geico Nationals, so will don my amateur scouting hat at times. Feel free to disagree and take all this with a grain of salt. It's just for fun because I'm excited to see him in Carolina Blue. Let's begin.
SHOOTING:
Cole: 26.8 PPG, 48.5% 2-pt, 38.0% 3-pt, 89.2% FT
Coby: 20.1 PPG, 64.4% 2-pt, 31.3% 3-pt, 70.6% FT
Trae: 23.2 PPG, 59.1% 2-pt, 35.9% 3-pt, 87.0% FT
Cole was the top scorer in the entire EYBL this year whereas Coby was 7th. You can see how dominant he was, and Trae and Cole both look like better shooters than Coby. I will say Coby shot better at USA basketball and I believe in regular high school ball too, whereas Cole was a bit lower from three (36.6%) at Oak Hill.
In the two games I saw Cole has similar step backs and other moves to create space for himself like both of these guys did. From the free throw percentage it's clear he has great shooting touch, and I expect him to be a good shooter right away. Neither Coby nor Trae shot great percentages from three in college, but that was because they were such great scorers that their team expected them to take lots of tough, contested jumpers. I expect the same will be true of Cole. With lower usage I think all three can shoot 40%+. Cole does have a bit different release compared to the quick release of the other two guys; will be interesting to see how that translates.
The one thing that is concerning is the low 2-point percentage compared to the other two. Trae played on the best team (with both Jontay and Michael Porter on it), but Coby had to lead everything on his own like Cole. Cole doesn't look as fast to Coby to me and he's clearly not as tall, so I think he needs to learn more creative finishing moves to score. He also took more shots than either of them, so some of it may be taking tough, contested twos when his team needs a shot. Will be fascinating to see how his passing evolves at UNC with much more talented teammates than he's ever played with.
PASSING:
Cole: 3.8 A/G, 3.6 TO/G
Coby: 3.0 A/G, 2.5 TO/G
Trae: 7.1 A/G, 3.6 TO/G
The stats tell us something here, but I think there's more to it. Scouts like Cole's passing quite a bit, and I think he'll look better than Coby here. The two games I saw he made a number of fantastic passes: a bunch of fast break bombs (we'll love his passing in transition), a full court bounce pass, shovel passes, baseline skip passes, etc. I don't think he's an elite passer right now and Trae was clearly better at this point, but Trae also had more talented teammates. We should see some positive gains compared to last year in terms of Cole's creation ability.
On the turnover point, I do think he'll have ups and downs like Coby and Trae both had. In the games I saw he had a few difficulties once full court pressed, and I think it's hard for any freshman to control the mistakes when they're the focal point of the offense.
REBOUNDING:
Cole: 7.8 RB/G
Coby: 3.8 RB/G
Trae: 3.5 RB/G
Simply put, Cole is a much better rebounder than either Coby or Trae. For one, I think he has quite a bit more leaping ability. He's an above the rim player despite only being 6'3" in shoes, capable of athletic dunks and blocks. It also speaks to his intuitive understanding of positioning, functional athleticism, and competitiveness. I think adding Cole and Bacot's rebounding will help get us back to the dominant rebounding teams that we saw in the title game years.
DEFENSE
Cole: 1.5 ST/G, 0.3 B/G
Coby: 1.2 ST/G, 0.2 B/G
Trae: 2.3 ST/G, 0.1 B/G
None of these guys are lock-down defenders really, but Cole shines in help defense and I think we'll see an upgrade there. He's smart with rotations and had a number of good close outs, contests inside, and help steals. I think this will help us some with open three point shooters and Cole will get more fast break steals than Coby did. Trae also had a knack for this obviously, even maybe gambling a bit too much. None of them had many blocks, but 6 for Cole in 21 games vs 2 for Trae in 24 games does mean something. Cole is more of a leaper and can actually help a bit in interior defense. He also took a couple charges.
I did notice Cole get beat off the dribble, particularly by junior point guard Mike Saunders of Wasatch (who I was surprised was not ranked in the 247 top 200). He wasn't always in a low stance and sliding quickly, similar to what I saw of Nas Little sometimes. Hopefully Roy can work on that. I don't expect any of them to ever be lock down 1-on-1 defenders, but Coby does have the nice height advantage that I think disrupted some guards when trying to shoot.
OVERALL
Tons to be excited about, as I think Cole is right up there with Coby and Trae with the potential to be the best overall player. He should be a great shooter from day one, he's a very good passer, provides the best overall defensive and rebounding passage, and has top-notch intangibles and understanding of the game. What he'll probably try to improve is finishing at the rim with creative shots or simply forgoing his own shot and passing it out sometimes, developing even better pick and roll passes, and working on his 1-on-1 defensive technique.
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