Lunardi vs Pomeroy

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Here are Lunardi's Bubble teams. The lead numbers are Pomeroy's rankings.

[as of 8:30pm Saturday]

Last Four Byes
39 Oklahoma
29 Florida
43 Ohio State
61 Arizona State

Last Four In - All listed as #11 seeds if they win their play-in game
25 Temple
78 St. John's
48 TCU
32 NC State

First Four Out
53 Belmont
30 Texas
41 Indiana
49 Oregon

Next Four Out
60 Alabama
29 Clemson
52 Lipscomb
80 UNC Greensboro

 

[Tom79]

This is all very fluid, and will likely change by 6pm. That would include, IMO, almost all seeding.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

This is all very fluid, and will likely change by 6pm. That would include, IMO, almost all seeding.

This morning's list (Sunday) looks mostly the same, but a few significant changes.

VCU has been shoved down into the last 4 in - presumably because Oregon thumped Washington yesterday. The result being that Arizona State got shoved into the play-in group, and NC State, in turn, has dropped to the first 4 out.

Here's this morning's revised list:

Last Four Byes
37 VCU
38 Oklahoma
28 Florida
44 Ohio State

Last Four In - All listed as #11 seeds if they win their play-in game
61 Arizona State
25 Temple
78 St. John's
48 TCU

First Four Out
32 NC State
53 Belmont
30 Texas
41 Indiana

Next Four Out
60 Alabama
29 Clemson
52 Lipscomb
80 UNC Greensboro

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

The other notable change this morning is that the ACC now only gets 7 teams in the NCAAT, according to Lunardi.

Here are the ACC teams listed by Lunardi's seeding with Pomeroy's ranking (and conversion to seeding):

#1 Seeds
01 (01) Virginia (playing Fairleigh Dickinson or Prairie View A&M)
03 (01) Duke (playing Iona or NC Central)
06 (02) UNC (playing N.Dakota St.)

#3 Seed
14 (04) FSU (playing Old Dominion)

#4 Seed
11 (03) Virginia Tech (playing UC Irvine)

#7 Seed
17 (05) Louisville (playing Florida)

#8 Seed
34 (09) Syracuse (playing Minnesota)

The biggest difference between Lunardi and Pomeroy is Louisville.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I know we love to bash NC State here, but why aren't they solidly in? Let's give the eye test to the last 4 byes and the last 4 in (according to Lunardi). None of these won their conference tournament.

Here's a summary of findings, with the data below for each team:
Better record than 5 of these 8 teams
Same or fewer bad losses than 4
Same or more good out-of-conference wins than 7 of them
Same or more good in-conference wins than 5 of them

NC State - Out of NCAAT
22-11 Record
2 Bad Losses
2 Good OOC Wins
3 Good In-Conf Wins
32 Pomeroy Rank

VCU - #10 Seed
25-7 Record
4 Bad Losses
1 Good OOC Wins
0 Good In-Conf Wins
37 Pomeroy Rank

Ohio St. - #11 Seed
19-14 Record
0 Bad Losses
2 Good OOC Wins
5 Good In-Conf Wins
44 Pomeroy Rank

Oklahoma - #10 Seed
19-13 Record
0 Bad Losses
2 Good OOC Wins
3 Good In-Conf Wins
38 Pomeroy Rank

Florida - #10 Seed
19-15 Record
1 Bad Loss
0 Good OOC Wins
3 Good In-Conf Wins
28 Pomeroy Rank

Arizona St. - #11 Seed Play-in
22-10 Record
5 Bad Losses
3 Good OOC Wins
1 Good In-Conf Win
61 Pomeroy Rank

St. John's - #11 Seed Play-in
21-12 Record
2 Bad Losses
1 Good OOC Wins
5 Good In-Conf Wins
79 Pomeroy Rank

Temple - #11 Seed Play-in
23-9 Record
2 Bad Losses
0 Good OOC Wins
2 Good In-Conf Wins
76 Pomeroy Rank

TCU - #11 Seed Play-in
20-13 Record
0 Bad Losses
0 Good OOC Wins
5 Good In-Conf Wins
48 Pomeroy Rank

Cutoffs I used:
Good win = team they beat ranked #50 or better by Pomeroy
Bad loss = team they lost to ranked #100 or worse by Pomeroy

 

[tarheel0910]

Cutoffs I used:
Good win = team they beat ranked #50 or better by Pomeroy
Bad loss = team they lost to ranked #100 or worse

I think I read somewhere that they didn't have a lot of quad one wins and I think they were bad in quad two and three as well. In other words, they mostly beat up on bad teams.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I think I read somewhere that they didn't have a lot of quad one wins and I think they were bad in quad two and three as well. In other words, they mostly beat up on bad teams.

I've heard that, too, but I wonder how true it is. Pomeroy has A and B ratings for opponents that combines their straight rating with location. I assume that's similar to quads 1 and 2.

Glancing at Arizona State, they have 2 A wins, NC State has 4. VCU, Temple, and TCU also have only 2. St. John's has 3. Florida is tied with State at 4. Oklahoma and Ohio State have 5.

The more I look at these numbers, the more pissed I will be if State is left out.

 

[gobblercalls]

I've heard that, too, but I wonder how true it is. Pomeroy has A and B ratings for opponents that combines their straight rating with location. I assume that's similar to quads 1 and 2.

Glancing at Arizona State, they have 2 A wins, NC State has 4. VCU, Temple, and TCU also have only 2. St. John's has 3. Florida is tied with State at 4. Oklahoma and Ohio State have 5.

The more I look at these numbers, the more pissed I will be if State is left out.

I would not be pissed if state was left out with a perfect 33-0 record!! I would be laughing my arse off!

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Per kenopm, N.C. State played the worst non-conference schedule in Division I. Three of their four "good" wins on the season --Auburn, Clemson, Syracuse -- were in Raleigh. And not the committe actually considers this, but State would have half as many "good" wins if Clemson hadn't pissed away their two games against the wuffies. I'm biased, but I believe that their relative lack of quality wins, bad losses (Wake Forest and Georgia Tech) and horrible non-conference schedule ought to keep them out of the tournament.

I think you can make a separate argument that they aren't good enough in absolute terms - which you just did.

But my point is that most of the teams ahead of them are also marginal when looked at that way, and that State is actually better than enough of them that they should move ahead of them.

 

[tarheel0910]

I've heard that, too, but I wonder how true it is. Pomeroy has A and B ratings for opponents that combines their straight rating with location. I assume that's similar to quads 1 and 2.

Glancing at Arizona State, they have 2 A wins, NC State has 4. VCU, Temple, and TCU also have only 2. St. John's has 3. Florida is tied with State at 4. Oklahoma and Ohio State have 5.

The more I look at these numbers, the more pissed I will be if State is left out.

I think the quads are more complicated than that. Combine that with the fact that their non conference schedule made their non conference football schedule look tough and you get a bubble team.

 

[Bubspub88]

I love that state looks like it may be out. I remember several of their fans telling me after they beat Auburn that state was second best team in NC. Seems I saw another place where state had easiest conf schedule. Besides UNC they played Wake, Pitt & BC twice. So they played UVa, Dook, FSU, VT, Syracue and Clemson ONCE in regular season.

Of top 9 teams they had possible 16 games (since state finished 8) and they played NINE games against them. OOC they played auburn at home and Penn State in the Challenge. State had a terrible schedule and that should not be rewarded.