No Doubt

[UNC-75]

There is no doubt in my mind after tonights game that we are a better team than Duke. Sure, we have the L tonight. Not going to mean a great deal in the big picture of the season. Lots going against us tonight and it was a game until a few minutes left. Hicks out, poor FT shooting, and a number of zebra calls that went against the Heels. Yes, there is no doubt IMO we are the better team and I predict will go much further than they in the Big Dance. Relax.

 

[NCtrueconservative]

Just a question I had on my mind...when was the last year that UNC won the first meeting of the year between us and dook? I remember winning the last game a couple of times over the past few years but can't remember the last time we won the first one or both matchups for that matter. Seems so many years we have the better team and always squander the first matchup

 

[berens007]

There is no doubt in my mind after tonights game that we are a better team than Duke. Sure, we have the L tonight. Not going to mean a great deal in the big picture of the season. Lots going against us tonight and it was a game until a few minutes left. Hicks out, poor FT shooting, and a number of zebra calls that went against the Heels. Yes, there is no doubt IMO we are the better team and I predict will go much further than they in the Big Dance. Relax.

we have some serious problems - guarding 3s and dribblers in a three-point dominated modern game, late game fts - this is not the first time these issues have shown up for us. they have five NBA players. Forget Allen, we had no one on the floor in the same league as Tatum. I hope you're right about the tourney but with our remaining schedule we are in danger of being a 4 or 5 seed and that is gonna make the tourney one tough road

 

[BlueDevilWildcat]

Yeah, you guys are probably a better team, can't believe I'm saying that given how I thought this year would turn out, but it's the truth. Win the battle lose the war...

Good game guys, they're always fun.

 

[UNC-75]

Not sure of that stat but it does seems ever since Tyler we have struggled to win in Durham. With Hicks I think this game is won by 8 points. That's why I am confident of the eventual outcome of this year.

 

[snoopy2000]

Got to agree with UNC-75. With Hicks Heels blow this team out. I thought Maye played okay but he is not Hicks. Dook got lucky on a couple of late possessions when a couple bricked 3 pointers bounced out long to the dookies who were already scrambling to get back on defense. This dook team reminds me of many dook teams who get beat by a stronger more physical team in the NCAA tourney when dook's 3s aren't falling and they don't have the weak ass ACC refs, who are intimidated by the rat ,calling the game. Plus missed FTs killed the heels tonight.

 

[NCtrueconservative]

Not sure of that stat but it does seems ever since Tyler we have struggled to win in Durham. With Hicks I think this game is won by 8 points. That's why I am confident of the eventual outcome of this year.

Found the answer. Heels haven't won the first meeting since 2014. Haven't won both meetings with dook during the year since 2008

 

[Littlejon]

Even without Hicks, if we hit the front end of those 1 & 1's, we probably win. No telling how many of the second shots we would've hit, but I have to believe the FT % would've been much better with those first one.

I, too, believe we are the better team. Didn't show it tonight, but for some reason Roy hasn't been able to beat dook. I guess we know how K felt playing Dean all those years!

I think we will be fine. Light a fire and we can run the table here on out and go into the ACCtourney in very good shape and probably get a 2 seed in the NCAA's. I think a 1 seed is out of reach, but a strong finish and we may get a 2 and set ourselves up for a good run at a FF.

 

[2DDIMOND]

Just a question I had on my mind...when was the last year that UNC won the first meeting of the year between us and dook? I remember winning the last game a couple of times over the past few years but can't remember the last time we won the first one or both matchups for that matter. Seems so many years we have the better team and always squander the first matchup

The snow make up game Paige's sophomore year, but were down big late in that one before Paige got hot & Roy confused the hell out of K with some zone defense.

 

[snoopy2000]

we have some serious problems - guarding 3s and dribblers in a three-point dominated modern game, late game fts - this is not the first time these issues have shown up for us. they have five NBA players. Forget Allen, we had no one on the floor in the same league as Tatum. I hope you're right about the tourney but with our remaining schedule we are in danger of being a 4 or 5 seed and that is gonna make the tourney one tough road

Much easier for Tatum to take it to the rim without Hicks in the lane. Will be different story next time. Also Tatum seems to be kind of a wild card. Plays a little out of control and can make some poor decisions at times.

 

[strummingram]

If UNC doesn't get their FT shooting under control, they won't go very far into the NCAA Tourney either.

 

[Spaceytoyz]

Duke is better at this moment, their last 3/4 games have been good, Heels even in victories looked marginal ...

 

[Sk1310]

We are better for the long haul, no doubt. I feel bad for the 5* big guys rotting in Durham.. na, i dont at all. They are fools.

 

[gunslingerdick]

@Raising Heel poasted a stat on OOTB yesterday showing how we fair significantly better in the second duke game than the first. Since Roy has been back, we are 3-12 in the first duke match up and 9-5 in the second.

 

[Afamu]

We are better for the long haul, no doubt. I feel bad for the 5* big guys rotting in Durham.. na, i dont at all. They are fools.

Which 5* bigs are rotting in Durham. Bolden hasn't proven he can play and Giles is still recovering from surgery.

 

[DSouthr]

Which 5* bigs are rotting in Durham. Bolden hasn't proven he can play and Giles is still recovering from surgery.

You answer your own questions a lot do ya?

 

[Afamu]

You answer your own questions a lot do ya?

Nope. Just trying to understand the question. Which ones are rotting? Which to me is a negative impression on Duke and K. I like to ask people to explain their comments.

Feel free to respond to my question.

 

[HEELS1984]

Giles, Bolden, Jeter, delaurier ( he's a 4 star sorry)

 

[Afamu]

Giles, Bolden, Jeter, delaurier ( he's a 4 star sorry)

So you think they should be playing even when not performing while on the court?

 

[CarolinaBlue5]

So you think they should be playing even when not performing while on the court?

It's hard to perfofm well when you don't get much of a chance! Giles had 6 pts in 10 min and played pretty well! Also the injury excuse for them is dead...they've had more than enough time to get back into the flow and heal up! Dook...where big men ride the pine!!!!!

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

@Raising Heel poasted a stat on OOTB yesterday showing how we fair significantly better in the second duke game than the first. Since Roy has been back, we are 3-12 in the first duke match up and 9-5 in the second.

I've noticed that too. Why do you think it is? I know there have been a few games where UNC has clearly had the better team but Duke was able to steal the first game somehow, 2012 comes to mind. Maybe Roy has his teams peaking by season's end? Maybe its just coincidence. But I am going to put a fair amount of money on UNC in the second game

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Found the answer. Heels haven't won the first meeting since 2014. Haven't won both meetings with dook during the year since 2008

Whereas we have lost both games in

2010
2011
2013
2015

Meaning we have only won 3 games since the 2009 championship.

I don't like that we seem to get shut out in odd-numbered years of late. Let's break that streak this year, OK?

 

[Afamu]

It's hard to perfofm well when you don't get much of a chance! Giles had 6 pts in 10 min and played pretty well! Also the injury excuse for them is dead...they've had more than enough time to get back into the flow and heal up! Dook...where big men ride the pine!!!!!

Giles just had knee surgery in October. K has proven he will play you if you deserver time. No matter what star you are.

Duke, where big men go to win NC's and 80% of their head to head against their rival.

Can you answer why no 5*'s have committed to UNC in the last few years. I am curious. Seems like lots of PT available.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Rebounding margin in our losses

UNC 37 - Indiana 37
UNC 39 - Kentucky 35
UNC 44 - Ga Tech 37
UNC 36 - Miami 41
UNC 30 - Duke 31

We average 44.1 rebounds per game. Among our losses, we only hit our average against Ga Tech.

 

[CarolinaBlue5]

Giles just had knee surgery in October. K has proven he will play you if you deserver time. No matter what star you are.

Duke, where big men go to win NC's and 80% of their head to head against their rival.

Can you answer why no 5*'s have committed to UNC in the last few years. I am curious. Seems like lots of PT available.

No five Stars??? Toney Bradley, Jalek Felton, coby white will be! And if you're going a few years back..Jackson, Berry, pinson! Might wanna pay more attention to recruiting before you make a statement

 

[CarolinaBlue5]

Five stars dont mean much when they're riding the bench

 

[gunslingerdick]

I've noticed that too. Why do you think it is? I know there have been a few games where UNC has clearly had the better team but Duke was able to steal the first game somehow, 2012 comes to mind. Maybe Roy has his teams peaking by season's end? Maybe its just coincidence. But I am going to put a fair amount of money on UNC in the second game

I'm not sure. I do think Roy - more than most coaches - is able to get his teams playing their best ball late in the season. I might say that only Izzo is capable of doing that as consistently as Roy. But it also has to do with how Roy constructs the seasons. For better or for worse, he's often still figuring out lineups and whatnot even into Feb. It drives a lot of us mad but I've always acknowledged that Roy coaches "seasons" not "games". I also think Roy is good at making adjustments. He takes a lot of heat from rival fans for not being a good bench coach (and even some of our own fans). But I think it shows that Roy and our staff are much better when facing a team for the second time in a season. He learns well from the first game and makes adjustments.

Duke, where big men go to win NC's and 80% of their head to head against their rival.
.

Don't overstate it. Y'all have had our number over the past 5-7 years but let's not forget, we're still 20 some odd games ahead of you in the all time series. So sweep us for 10 straight years and I'll allow you to come here and talk shit. Until then - especially with what you probably think is a clever username - mind your Ps and Qs.

[

 

[Tigertown_a_Rick]

I have a different take than a lot of Heel fans about last night's game....First, we played Dook's style of play at the beginning of the game.. Much was made prior to the game that our experience would be a benefit, but that was not necessarily the case early in the game because we were impatient....At times, I felt that I was at the Rec league watching one on one basketball at the beginning of the game because it felt that whoever had the ball was going to shoot it regardless of whether or not they were in position to do so or not....Sure we made a few of those, but that is not the style that best suits Carolina....When Carolina is running their offense and producing assist on just about every basket, we are tough to handle...That didn't seem to be the case early in the game even though the game was close at the half....Also thought that Kenny Williams did a great job of guarding Kennard in the first half, and was surprised that Britt guarded him late in the game instead of Williams, and the announcers pointed that out that Kennard was bigger which made it easier to pass and shoot over Britt....Not Britt's fault mind you, but it was an advantage....Allen didn't drive as much as usual, so we did a good job of keeping him out of the lane, but did a poor job in guarding him from long range...Again, help defense is very important against a team with good perimeter shooters, and Allen seemed to have a lot of good looks from behind the arc last night...

As mentioned above, we are not going to go very far in ANY tournament if we can't make a majority of our Free Throws especially in the last 5 minutes of a close game as was the case last night....

Missing Hicks last night was a tough break, but don't think that either Maye or Bradley played that bad, but both of those guys need to go to the rim with authority as a couple of shots were blocked that shouldn't have been..Both just need to be more physical and stronger with the ball when playing inside..Tatum was a matchup problem last night for sure, and it's true that we don't have a player like him which means help defense becomes more important when he drives the ball to the hole....He does play out of control and times and takes shots that probably drives K crazy, but that's what opponents should want because he is tough and quick around the basket...Hicks would probably have helped us a lot in that regard last night, but I don't think that Tatum was the reason we lost the game..

Overall, I thought that Seventh Woods gave us some great minutes, and made some terrific passes during the stretch in the 2nd half when we rallied to take the lead....I thought then, and believe today that was the way that Carolina needs to play....When we share the ball, and run our offense....This team can beat anybody!

Also think that Berry is pressing a little too much right now, and that was evident in the last 5 minutes of play....Jackson was a force last night, and right now is our most consistent performer that we can count on....I'm hoping that Berry will regain his early season form because we will not go very far in the tourney if he plays the way he did last night?

Just my opinion!

 

[SeaHawk98]

Yeah, getting sick and tired of losing to Duke. Both programs are top tier programs, so splitting a series during the year shouldn't be surprising. However, if there is a series sweep it is always them and not us.

The game last night was even, difference was missing damn free throws. No more freaking excuses.

 

[gunslingerdick]

Missing Hicks last night was a tough break, but don't think that either Maye or Bradley played that bad, but both of those guys need to go to the rim with authority as a couple of shots were blocked that shouldn't have been..Both just need to be more physical and stronger with the ball when playing inside..Tatum was a matchup problem last night for sure, and it's true that we don't have a player like him which means help defense becomes more important when he drives the ball to the hole....He does play out of control and times and takes shots that probably drives K crazy, but that's what opponents should want because he is tough and quick around the basket...Hicks would probably have helped us a lot in that regard last night, but I don't think that Tatum was the reason we lost the game..

Missing Hicks was a big deal. I discussed this in the OOTB basketball thread. Luke, Pinson and Jackson can't post up. That left us with only one big to post up when in the halfcourt set. And that meant Jefferson could overplay when guarding Meeks in the post and make us reverse the ball to the other side. The problem for us was that when the ball got reversed, we didn't have another big that could set up with his back to the basket and receive an entry pass. Luke tried to post up (and even made a basket once), but consistently, we really only had one option on the block. It also impacted our rebounding. We had to crash harder from up top because we didn't have another big already set up down low and working for rebounding position.

Tatum is a very talented player and he was a difference maker for duke last night. But if you noticed, Pinson did a fantastic job guarding him. I'm not sure if he scored more than one bucket on Theo. But he exposed Maye in a bad way. Hicks again would have helped. Hicks has gotten much better this year guarding out on the perimeter. And he's just bigger, stronger and faster than Maye and Theo. Plus, his ability to score on the other end would have put more pressure on Tatum defensively and possibly in foul trouble.

 

[NCAAUCoach]

We've been "the better team" a number of times over the tenure that Roy has been here (last year at home, 2012 at home, meltdown a couple of years ago at Duke, McCants/Felton 2004)....yet we have a late game brain fart or give it away. That's a theme. Roy, for some reason, doesn't take the same level of focus into this game as he does for State. Granted, State sucks compared to Duke....but our focus is drastically different.

What is interesting is how we do in the regular season vs. Duke. It's alarming actually.

1) In first games of the regular season, UNC is 3-11 vs. Duke under Roy (21.4%). That is unacceptable.

2) In second games of the regular season, UNC is 8-5 (61.5%). Why such a difference? It's over 13.5 seasons, so it's a decent sample size.

3) In first games, the average score is 79 to 78 Duke.....yet we are 3-11. That's coaching and late game decisions.

4) All games in the regular season the average score is 76.8 to 75.8, yet we are 11-16 vs. Duke (40.7%). If we won half of the games we crapped away vs. Duke that I listed above, we are .500 against them....which is what the rivalry should produce.

5) When Duke is favored, they win 80% (12-3) of the time. When UNC is favored, we win 70% (7-3) of the time.

 

[Tigertown_a_Rick]

Missing Hicks was a big deal. I discussed this in the OOTB basketball thread. Luke, Pinson and Jackson can't post up. That left us with only one big to post up when in the halfcourt set. And that meant Jefferson could overplay when guarding Meeks in the post and make us reverse the ball to the other side. The problem for us was that when the ball got reversed, we didn't have another big that could set up with his back to the basket and receive and entry pass. Luke tried to post up (and even made a basket once), but consistently, we really only had one option on the block. It also impacted our rebounding. We had to crash harder from up top because we didn't have another big already set up down low and working for rebounding position.

Tatum is a very talented player and he was a difference maker for duke last night. But if you noticed, Pinson did a fantastic job guarding him. I'm not sure if he scored more than one bucket on Theo. But he exposed Maye in a bad way. Hicks again would have helped. Hicks has gotten much better this year guarding out on the perimeter. And he's just bigger, stronger and faster than Maye and Theo. Plus, his ability to score on the other end would have put more pressure on Tatum defensively and possibly in foul trouble.

I agree with you about Pinson....He just seems to add the infusion of energy that is needed in a game of this magnitude, and wouldn't be at all shocked if he becomes a starter before the Regular season ends... He is a very good defender as you mentioned....He made a couple baskets when left open, and made a great pass to Bradley on another occasion, so he seems to have improved on the other end of the floor as well...

Also agree that Hicks would have certainly of helped us with guarding Tatum who was a matchup problem when Maye was guarding him...Hicks' experience would have also been a bonus last night, but Maye and Bradley got to get some experience somehow, and last night I hope they learned something with more minutes than usual?...We got to be able to count on both those guys next year, so maybe that is the Silver Lining even though we lost?

Still believe our style of play last night suited Dook more than it did us!

 

[DSouthr]

We've been "the better team" a number of times over the tenure that Roy has been here (last year at home, 2012 at home, meltdown a couple of years ago at Duke, McCants/Felton 2004)....yet we have a late game brain fart or give it away. That's a theme. Roy, for some reason, doesn't take the same level of focus into this game as he does for State. Granted, State sucks compared to Duke....but our focus is drastically different.

What is interesting is how we do in the regular season vs. Duke. It's alarming actually.

1) In first games of the regular season, UNC is 3-11 vs. Duke under Roy (21.4%). That is unacceptable.

2) In second games of the regular season, UNC is 8-5 (61.5%). Why such a difference? It's over 13.5 seasons, so it's a decent sample size.

3) In first games, the average score is 79 to 78 Duke.....yet we are 3-11. That's coaching and late game decisions.

4) All games in the regular season the average score is 76.8 to 75.8, yet we are 11-16 vs. Duke (40.7%).

5) When Duke is favored, they win 80% (12-3) of the time. When UNC is favored, we win 70% (7-3) of the time.

Coach, only 2 things I can offer that may help explain why we do so poorly in the first match up of this series...

First, it is always a very intense game when these 2 meet and it just seems to me that duke maybe plays each of those games with a touch more intensity than we do and I think we saw that again last night. We get the loss in the first game and we double down on our intensity level the second game and with us how well we play tends to come down to how intense we focus.

This one was back & forth but when you see Joel missing free throws ya have to ask if he was not as in to it as we have seen him be. Not blaming this on Joel, just using an example. Clearly, 2 programs as most times are equally matched as these 2, the last game is a pay back many times for the result of the first game.

 

[DSouthr]

One thing that may have been a factor, outside of what has been talked about so far, this was the first game in a while we got to play vs man defense for most of a game. I think we are a better team vs man than we are against zone but having seen to many zones this season and so little man we didn't react great to it and not having Hicks IMO was a big part of that, he is much more a problem for the other team to handle in man than he is against a zone.

 

[NCAAUCoach]

Coach, only 2 things I can offer that may help explain why we do so poorly in the first match up of this series...

First, it is always a very intense game when these 2 meet and it just seems to me that duke maybe plays each of those games with a touch more intensity than we do and I think we saw that again last night. We get the loss in the first game and we double down on our intensity level the second game and with us how well we play tends to come down to how intense we focus.

This one was back & forth but when you see Joel missing free throws ya have to ask if he was not as in to it as we have seen him be. Not blaming this on Joel, just using an example. Clearly, 2 programs as most times are equally matched as these 2, the last game is a pay back many times for the result of the first game.

That's part of my frustration. Why do we need to "refocus"? Why do we not have the same intensity that we bring against State? Why is it something we turn on or off. To some extent, we've regressed since November (Maui). Wisconsin would probably beat us right now. Having come so close to a once in a lifetime thing last year (for the players, a Title) and come up short.....that should be the only "refocus" we need. Duke brings it every game against us.....every game. I hate them as a rival, but that's what we HAVE to have.

 

[Sk1310]

Which 5* bigs are rotting in Durham. Bolden hasn't proven he can play and Giles is still recovering from surgery.

You just named two, and Jeter is the third. How many 5* big men do you need as proof?

 

[Sk1310]

So you think they should be playing even when not performing while on the court?

That's the point of it. Why are they having such a slow time developing, when they were considered top 15 NBA draft prospects coming out of high school?

 

[DSouthr]

That's part of my frustration. Why do we need to "refocus"? Why do we not have the same intensity that we bring against State? Why is it something we turn on or off. To some extent, we've regressed since November (Maui). Wisconsin would probably beat us right now. Having come so close to a once in a lifetime thing last year (for the players, a Title) and come up short.....that should be the only "refocus" we need. Duke brings it every game against us.....every game. I hate them as a rival, but that's what we HAVE to have.

Coach, gonna try to say this as diplomatically as I can. I love Roy as a coach, specifically as our coach, I do not want him to even consider retirement any time soon. I hate K and I would LOVE for him to step down tomorrow because as much as I dislike him and his program that fact is he is a great coach.

Now Roy, IDK, maybe he swings between being a nice person and a guy that wants people to like him as his personality but for what ever reason he at times seems to have to beg for his players to play with that extra level of intensity. K on the other hand, as coach is more the disciplinarian, more the drill Sargent, maybe stated better more intimidating type of personality. Roy has to scream and nearly go in to fits on the side lines just to get his players to give intensity where K will get the intensity from every one in the building. K intimidates his players, the refs, heck, even the duke team managers run like they have been shot at.

I think Roy tries to work with his kids more as a father figure to develop them as players while K takes more of a intimidating emotional approach that drives his players to play as hard as they possibly can every time out or find themselves on the bench for their careers. K pretty much puts his focus on 7 or fewer players where as Roy spreads it to all his scholarship players. I do think Roy's approach is better but it takes longer and it at times struggles for intensity. Roy gets more over time from his players, takes a lesser talented kid and develops him in to a very solid player but K makes a more intense kid produce sooner.

Example, K will schedule cup cake games early on to build that killer, shark smelling blood in the water mind set for a limited number of players, will leave his starters in 40pts up and 2mins left in a game. Roy tinkers with his line ups in those games and uses those games to develop his bench players 10+ deep.

 

[MyDudeG]

That's the point of it. Why are they having such a slow time developing, when they were considered top 15 NBA draft prospects coming out of high school?

This goes both ways. Why are Justin Jackson and Pinson still in school when they were rated higher than Justise Winslow coming out of high school? Does this mean guards/wings should never commit to UNC? Some guys just develop at different rates and unfortunately our bigs have not shown much when given the opportunity at this point in the season. Hopefully they will continue to progress and become more of a factor towards the end of the season. Good game yesterday, y'all have a hell of a team. Round 2 in Chapel Hill should be fun.

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

Whereas we have lost both games in

2010
2011
2013
2015

Meaning we have only won 3 games since the 2009 championship.

I don't like that we seem to get shut out in odd-numbered years of late. Let's break that streak this year, OK?

Clearly UNC plays worse in non-election years