Part 3: Making it out of L.A....

[gary-7]

As with many of you, I would have preferred to play Oregon. Their style would have thrown us right in our briar patch and we would have likely run them out of the gym. Oh, well...

Wisky is another matter. They are as disciplined a half-court team as you will find and have size and experience.
Kaminsky is obviously a hand full as a stretch 7-footer. Koenig has excellent quicks and handle and will drive the ball to the hole (if you remember, Roy recruited him very hard).

But IMO the wildcard for them is Dekker (the Forward with the odd 50s flat-top). He is in many ways their most dangerous player. He is a quiet assassin with power forward size with wing skills. He's a knock-down perimeter shooter with excellent skills and deceptively athletic. Ironically he grew up a Carolina fan (geez, don't they all?), so I'm sure he would take delight in lighting us up. The good news on Dekker is that he's not always as assertive as he might be. He hurts you most when you forget about him.

The way I see it, Kaminsky is gonna get his, we just need to keep the others under control and hopefully under siege. If we can hold Dekker to around 12 points that would improve our prospects markedly, but the most important factor follows below.

Here's our conundrum: Our big lineup probably matches up with these guys better size-wise than most anyone we've played... but that could also be the bad news, because that's our least effective lineup of forcing tempo. Yes, once again this one will come down to tempo. Playing Wisky 40 minutes in half-court is not a formula for success. We must make them play a large portion of the game at our preferred pace. If Roy approaches this one like the second half of the Harvard game, for example, our season will not end well.

One last thing, for all their size this Wisky team is not as potent in the paint as many previous versions. And with Ryan teams it's not so much about turning them over as making them defend our pace. These are yet two more reasons we should not be afraid to go small and get after them and force tempo. JP can handle any of their forwards, and running a succession of Bigs at Kaminsky is good strategy. Making him gasp for air running is an even better strategy. They have a hard time with quick, aggressive Guards. (Young for Oregon flat lit them up), and once again a Berry/Paige backcourt would be very hard for them to defend. How much will we see that?...... (sigh) that remains to be seen......

This post was edited on 3/24 7:26 PM by gary-7

 

[gunslingerdick]

In the other thread, I recommended that Paige, JP, Hicks and Brice play 32-34 minutes. Jackson, Berry and Britt each to get 20 or so. Simmons and James play only for a breather. But that's assuming we don't get in foul trouble. And I also noted that if Jackson, Berry or Britt seem to be in the groove and hitting from the outside, they could take some of Hicks' minutes.

I like big Joel and I'm not one of those that thinks he's a waste. But for this game, he doesn't need to play. Brice and Hicks are far more mobile and we can slide Jackson and JP to the 4 if need be.

So in essence, I agree that we should go small. That doesn't necessarily mean 3 or 4 guards on the floor at once. But 2 guards, a wing and 2 PFs get it done, IMO.

I also agree that Dekker is the guy we need to worry about. I guess we'll have JP on him most of the time with Jackson and Hicks playing him a little bit. Brice won't be able to handle him though and we can't afford for Brice to get in foul trouble. Brice should play Kaminsky. And if I'm Brice, I let him post up rather than force him out to the elbow or beyond. He has no chance checking Kaminsky if Frank puts the ball on the floor. He's much more equipped to handle him with his back to the basket. And for the love of Pete, he needs to make sure he doesn't pick up cheap fouls by reaching or even worse, a moving screen - which he's usually good for one per game.

Need a big game from Paige - offensively and defensively. Need JP to not turn the ball over and to take the ball to the rack. Need for Hicks to avoid foul trouble and be active underneath. And of course, we'll need some threes from Berry, Britt and Jackson.

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by gunslingerdick:
In the other thread, I recommended that Paige, JP, Hicks and Brice play 32-34 minutes. Jackson, Berry and Britt each to get 20 or so. Simmons and James play only for a breather. But that's assuming we don't get in foul trouble. And I also noted that if Jackson, Berry or Britt seem to be in the groove and hitting from the outside, they could take some of Hicks' minutes.

I like big Joel and I'm not one of those that thinks he's a waste. But for this game, he doesn't need to play. Brice and Hicks are far more mobile and we can slide Jackson and JP to the 4 if need be.

So in essence, I agree that we should go small. That doesn't necessarily mean 3 or 4 guards on the floor at once. But 2 guards, a wing and 2 PFs get it done, IMO.

I also agree that Dekker is the guy we need to worry about. I guess we'll have JP on him most of the time with Jackson and Hicks playing him a little bit. Brice won't be able to handle him though and we can't afford for Brice to get in foul trouble. Brice should play Kaminsky. And if I'm Brice, I let him post up rather than force him out to the elbow or beyond. He has no chance checking Kaminsky if Frank puts the ball on the floor. He's much more equipped to handle him with his back to the basket. And for the love of Pete, he needs to make sure he doesn't pick up cheap fouls by reaching or even worse, a moving screen - which he's usually good for one per game.

Need a big game from Paige - offensively and defensively. Need JP to not turn the ball over and to take the ball to the rack. Need for Hicks to avoid foul trouble and be active underneath. And of course, we'll need some threes from Berry, Britt and Jackson.

Good point about Brice and the cheap fouls, dick.
Cannot afford that in this game. Brice could feast offensively and we need him in the game.

The odd thing about Kaminsky is that he tends to spend too much time outside the paint. He also likes to face up and drive and kick out which is odd for a 7-footer. I would not help down on him and enable their other shooters. If Brice guards him I'll concede the occasional 3-ball to Kaminsky. Just stay between him and the basket and make him earn his buckets.

 

[ChiShankCity]

Our big guys (assuming Meeks is a no go) are going to have to do things they haven't done all year long.

Kaminsky draws 5.1 fouls/40 minutes.
Nigel Hayes draws 4.5 fouls/40 minutes.

So in a typical game, those guys will get at least 1 opposing big into significant foul trouble.

Assuming Meeks (commits 4.5 fouls/40 minutes) doesn't play, here's our primary big man rotation:

Johnson: commits 4.7 fouls/40 minutes
James: commits 5.5 fouls/40 minutes
Hicks commits 6.8 fouls/40 minutes
Simmons commits 6.7 fouls/40 minutes

My guess is the officials will let the guys play since Wisconsin never fouls and they don't want a 3/1 FT disparity... But my fear is Kaminsky is going to foul out our entire frontcourt. We're going to get a couple over the back fouls when he rebounds because of his size and our need to crash the offensive glass.

Typically, Brice and James are good for 1 moving screen foul per game.

I predicted this earlier... I just don't think we're disciplined enough to win a game like this. The game will probably be played on Wisconsin's terms because they're older and better as a team... We're going to have too many bad moments of impatience to beat a team like Wisconsin. Stylistically, it's a bad match up.

Additionally, our guys might be somewhat satisfied to get to the 2nd weekend since none of our guys have. They've got their eyes set on winning a national title. Who knows if that will play a role.

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by SJung851:
Our big guys (assuming Meeks is a no go) are going to have to do things they haven't done all year long.

Kaminsky draws 5.1 fouls/40 minutes.
Nigel Hayes draws 4.5 fouls/40 minutes.

So in a typical game, those guys will get at least 1 opposing big into significant foul trouble.

Assuming Meeks (commits 4.5 fouls/40 minutes) doesn't play, here's our primary big man rotation:

Johnson: commits 4.7 fouls/40 minutes
James: commits 5.5 fouls/40 minutes
Hicks commits 6.8 fouls/40 minutes
Simmons commits 6.7 fouls/40 minutes

My guess is the officials will let the guys play since Wisconsin never fouls and they don't want a 3/1 FT disparity... But my fear is Kaminsky is going to foul out our entire frontcourt. We're going to get a couple over the back fouls when he rebounds because of his size and our need to crash the offensive glass.

Typically, Brice and James are good for 1 moving screen foul per game.

I predicted this earlier... I just don't think we're disciplined enough to win a game like this. The game will probably be played on Wisconsin's terms because they're older and better as a team... We're going to have too many bad moments of impatience to beat a team like Wisconsin. Stylistically, it's a bad match up.

Additionally, our guys might be somewhat satisfied to get to the 2nd weekend since none of our guys have. They've got their eyes set on winning a national title. Who knows if that will play a role.

Good point on the fouls and yet another reason I would rather us not try to play them with a big lineup. The more time we let them dictate the pace the more time they will spend at the line. Meeks will be, at best, limited... and I can't see Joel James effectively defending any of their players. They are all far too mobile.

Honestly though, I don't see any of our guys being satisfied at going this far. That is not what you come to Carolina for.

Wisky might have performed better as a team this season but they are not more talented. However you're right: stylistically it is a bad match-up, especially if we let it be. I'm not going to pull any punches here: As much as I love Roy, much of this one will be on his willingness to not be stubborn and put the combos on the floor who can force Wisky to defend an up-tempo team. That, as the numbers have screamed all season, will start in the back court. The more minutes we see of Berry/Paige, the better our chances become.