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Perception of our team vs. Reality

heelz2345

heelz2345

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Mar 4, 2008
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While the win this weekend opened some eyes nationally, we still aren't getting the respect we deserve. In this article, ESPN calls our strength of schedule terrible, and says we would have to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season (beating Clemson) to be in the conversation for the playoff. They also say that win would be our only one vs. a ranked opponent this season, which is not true, because Pitt was ranked when we played them, and at the time we played GT & Duke, both were in the top 25 the previous week, but that's beside the point. If we played Clemson, the worst case scenario for our record would be 10-2, meaning we would most likely be ranked, yet they say it would be one of the biggest upsets of the season. Would it really be one of the biggest upsets of the season? A ranked team with 2 or fewer losses beating another ranked team, albeit one that is higher ranked? This week alone saw 5 ranked teams (including 3 unbeatens) lose to unranked teams, but if we beat Clemson, that would be a bigger upset? 2 ranked teams lost to lower ranked teams this week (and both lost by at least 2 TDs), but no one is calling those major upsets.

As for the SOS, if you compare the records of our opponents vs. Clemson's opponents, they are fairly even. Using all 12 of our regular season opponents, the numbers are as follows.

Combined Record of Clemson's Opponents: 58-51
Combined Record of Clemson's Non-conference Opponents: 22-14
Combined Record of Clemson's ACC Opponents: 36-37

Combined Record of UNC's Opponents: 56-52
Combined Record of UNC's Non-conference Opponents: 19-17
Combined Record of UNC's ACC Opponents: 37-35

As of this moment, our ACC schedule is tougher than Clemson's, and their non-conference is tougher than our's, thanks largely to Notre Dame, but overall, they are pretty close. We both have 6 teams on our schedules that currently have winning records. Our points scored & points allowed numbers are basically identical, with us scoring 40 PPG (41 vs ACC) & allowing 18.5 PPG (21.6 vs ACC) for a differential of 21.5 PPG (19.5 vs ACC) and Clemson scoring 38.6 PPG (39 vs ACC) & allowing 17.1 PPG (18.6 vs ACC) for a differential of 21.5 PPG (20.3 vs ACC).

Don't mistake me, I'm not claiming we deserve to be top 5 or top 10 at the moment, but we do deserve everything we've achieved thus far because the team has worked their butts off for it. It's as simple as that. And if they keep working their butts off, and we make it to the ACC Championship, and if we beat Clemson, to paraphrase Dabo, it wouldn't be because of anything other than the fact we were the better team that day.

I said it a few weeks ago, keep coming up with excuses, say we're only winning because we played a weak schedule, say we don't deserve to be up there with one-loss SEC teams, say it would be an unbelievable upset if we beat Clemson, because while you're talking about those things, this team is gonna keep winning.
 
Trust me, I know, and I want us to win, win, win, win, win. I'm just hoping the team is as sick as I am of people trying to diminish or qualify what they've accomplished and use it as fuel to get those wins, preferably in a manner like they did against A&T, Illinois, Delaware, Wake & Duke!
 
Andy Staples (SI) is giving us a little bit of love...

A lot of people raised on the poll and BCS systems can't seem to wrap their brains around the possibility that a one-loss team might still be the nation's best, but it's entirely feasible. Last year, losing to Virginia Tech in September helped make Ohio State the force it was at the end of the season. The same may prove true for North Carolina (season-opening loss to South Carolina).... "

and...
Clemson has the clearest path of any team to an undefeated season, but the rapid improvement of potential ACC title game foe North Carolina could make things interesting.

http://www.campusrush.com/college-football-playoff-assumptions-punt-pass-pork-1445578310.html
 
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heelz2345 said:
In this article, ESPN calls our strength of schedule terrible, and says we would have to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season (beating Clemson) to be in the conversation for the playoff. They also say that win would be our only one vs. a ranked opponent this season, which is not true, because Pitt was ranked when we played them, and at the time we played GT & Duke, both were in the top 25 the previous week, but that's beside the point.
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I think one of the issues is that when an ACC team loses, it must be because they are bad, and they drop out of the rankings (unless you are Florida State and you lose to Clemson). And consequently when you beat a ranked ACC team, unless they are Clemson or FSU... It's not seen as a quality win. See point above.

SEC teams play absolute cupcake out of conference schedules, beat up on each other in conference, but all of the 1 and 2 loss teams are ranked highly so their wins are overinflated, and when they lose, they don't fall too far. Does Mississippi State have any quality wins???

What about Michigan? Their only "signature" win is Northwestern, to this point.

By no means am I suggesting Pitt deserves to be ranked - they may lose every game from here on out, who knows - but they have lost to... Undefeated Iowa on a last second field goal, 1-loss and #5 Notre Dame, and 1-loss and #17 UNC.

Duke has lost to a ranked 7-2 Northwestern team, and that crazy Miami game.

Georgia Tech is having an off year, but they can beat most teams on any given Saturday (see FSU)

I don't think any of those three wins are bad wins...
 
UNC is starting to get attention but very compliment has a qualifier. Whether it is the loss to sc, the weak schedule or whatever. Duke had a defense ranked pretty high in several categories and Carolina destroyed them. 66 points is hard to do against any P5 team. Next three games are all ones that the Heels could lose but could also win. I will bet that if UNC averages half of what they did on offense Saturday they will win all three and Dabo will be pretty nervous.
 
Some comments about strength of schedule. One, opponents' winning percentage isn't a very good measure (but I appreciate the point being made). Second, we're still getting dismissed for a bad, bad loss to South Carolina and for playing 2 FCS teams out of conference.

We're at the point in the season where most SOS calculations start to have enough comparative data to arrive at similar conclusions. Case in point, four of the five SOS rankings I include in the weekly stats have our SOS ranked between 68-70. That's an incredibly tight window. The fifth service uses a very different methodology and has us at 115 (!) but you get the idea.

On one hand, I don't really care about how we're perceived. The last 5+ years have ingrained an "us against the world" mentality in me. But I also recognize the importance of perception in college football. We don't have to worry about a playoff berth but it could definitely cost us a shot at a better bowl that would be very lucrative and provide excellent exposure for the program.

Right now it feels like a loss in the last three games would undo everything we've accomplished to this point in terms of perception. And even if we win out, we'd probably have to keep it respectable against Clemson in the ACCCG to avoid the same result. It sucks but I'm not sure how you fix that.
 
Raising Heel said:
Right now it feels like a loss in the last three games would undo everything we've accomplished to this point in terms of perception. And even if we win out, we'd probably have to keep it respectable against Clemson in the ACCCG to avoid the same result. It sucks but I'm not sure how you fix that.
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Agreed 100% and this is exacerbated by the fact that ND will almost certainly be in front of us in the ACC bowl tie-in selection. We really need ND to lose again.

I mean, heck, we could win out in the regular season and lose to Clemson in Charlotte and get bumped down to the TaxSlayer Bowl in Jacksonville or worse. That's why I'm not focused on the bowl we end up in (ACC has fairly terrible bowl tie-ins anyway), and I just want us to win the Coastal. I think that does more for our national exposure -- JMO -- than a bowl game would.
 
TarHeelNation11 said:
Agreed 100% and this is exacerbated by the fact that ND will almost certainly be in front of us in the ACC bowl tie-in selection. We really need ND to lose again.

I mean, heck, we could win out in the regular season and lose to Clemson in Charlotte and get bumped down to the TaxSlayer Bowl in Jacksonville or worse. That's why I'm not focused on the bowl we end up in (ACC has fairly terrible bowl tie-ins anyway), and I just want us to win the Coastal. I think that does more for our national exposure -- JMO -- than a bowl game would.
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And, this year's bowl tie-ins are worse than normal, due to the Orange Bowl being one of the semi-final bowl games - the ACC's default conference champ site is not available to the ACC (except as a semi-finalist in the playoff). There is no guararantee of an ACC team invite to either of the "Host" bowls (Fiesta and Peach, this yr) which are 2 of the 6 bowls in the Playoff System, with the "host" team selected by the Final 4 Selection committee as well). And there is no "anywhere close" equivalent bowl, as best I can tell, in the ACC's Tier 1 bowls (Belk, Music City, Sun, and Jacksonville's TaxSlayer this yr(?) ). (and I'm not sure I have the tier 1 vs tier 2 bowls classified correctly - I'm pretty sure that NYC's "Gotham Bowl" and Shreveport's "Independence Bowl" are also in the mix, along with a couple others I don't recall).
 
Yeah, I've seen a lot of projections having us in the Belk Bowl, and it's like "Really? We could win 11 games in the regular season and end up in the same bowl as if we won 6?"
 
I think Peach Bowl, or Russell Athletic (formerly Citrus) Bowl is more likely.
 
journalists are lazy. They don't dare question SEC teams soft schedules. They don't do quality research. They don't look at reality. Unfortunately, either does the CFP committee. If UNC wins out, they will not be in the playoffs. The system is rigged.
 
Let's look at Florida. Ranked #11. 8-1. Barely beat Vandy at home. Puffed up because of wins against Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi. All teams grossly overrated and exposed as frauds. The lost to LSU who barely beat Syracuse and exposed by Alabama. LSU was puffed up for barely beating Florida. The "strength of schedule" thing is Very subjective.
 
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topdecktiger said:
Actually, there is. The ACC champ, or highest-ranked team, gets either the Fiesta or Peach.

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/82568/game-times-for-acc-bowl-tie-ins
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Fiesta and Peach are at large bids...a lot of wiggle room for these bowls ...The Fiesta is drooling over Michigan Ohio state(if they stumble) Iowa...Michigan state(long shot) just the Big Ten teams(all have BCS experience and fans flock to past bowl destinations)...then comes Stanford Notre Dame and Utah....UNC will be fighting at 10-2 to get the Peach...butts in the seats is the bottom line and national interest...it is not fair and UNC is providing some of the most exciting offensive football in the country and would cause most defenses fits
 
Louigi said:
Let's look at Florida. Ranked #11. 8-1. Barely beat Vandy at home. Puffed up because of wins against Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi. All teams grossly overrated and exposed as frauds. The lost to LSU who barely beat Syracuse and exposed by Alabama. LSU was puffed up for barely beating Florida. The "strength of schedule" thing is Very subjective.
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Alabama... who I think is the best team in the country...but you are in the top 4 with a home loss to a team with 3 loses...Ohio state who has not beaten a top 25 team and struggles most weeks?
 
2for3 said:
Fiesta and Peach are at large bids...a lot of wiggle room for these bowls ...The Fiesta is drooling over Michigan Ohio state(if they stumble) Iowa...Michigan state(long shot) just the Big Ten teams(all have BCS experience and fans flock to past bowl destinations)...then comes Stanford Notre Dame and Utah....UNC will be fighting at 10-2 to get the Peach...butts in the seats is the bottom line and national interest...it is not fair and UNC is providing some of the most exciting offensive football in the country and would cause most defenses fits
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That's incorrect. Look at the link I posted. It lists all of the ACC's bowl tie ins. It says:

Peach Bowl (Dec. 31 at noon) and Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1 at 1 p.m.): The ACC champion or next highest-ranked team (if the champion makes the playoff) will appear in one of these games.
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/82568/game-times-for-acc-bowl-tie-ins
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The ACC is guaranteed a spot in one of these games.
 
topdecktiger said:
That's incorrect. Look at the link I posted. It lists all of the ACC's bowl tie ins. It says:



The ACC is guaranteed a spot in one of these games.
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Don't the "Fighting Irish" potentially qualify as the "next highest ranked team" in the ACC if they do not also make the Final Four, and the ACC Champion does? I believe their agreement with the ACC could potentially put them in that position. For bowl tie-in purposes after the playoff teams are set, aren't the Irish treated as an ACC team while not actually being one, or does that only apply to our Tier 1 and Tier 2 bowl setup???
 
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6666Heel said:
Don't the "Fighting Irish" potentially qualify as the "next highest ranked team" in the ACC if they do not also make the Final Four, and the ACC Champion does? I believe their agreement with the ACC could potentially put them in that position. For bowl tie-in purposes after the playoff teams are set, aren't the Irish treated as an ACC team while not actually being one, or does that only apply to our Tier 1 and Tier 2 bowl setup???
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Nope. Notre Dame doesn't get the ACC's NY6 spot. Notre Dame's tie in with the ACC only applies to the other bowls.
 
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why don't the big bowls have a bowl game and on a rotational basis have a playoff game the next week? 2 weeks of tourists instead of 1.
 
We're playing some of the best football in the nation right now and have got better and better. Let's stay on a roll and this trajectory. Imo, we handled Pitt and Duke decisively, Dook more so obviously.

Win one game at a time. Win the remaining games in the regular season. Beat Clemson in the title game, and then we really would have a solid argument and deserve to be in the play-offs.

It's probably good to raise the issue of not getting respect so if we do this, the college football world is paying attention and gives us what we'd deserve.

But for the players, keep focussed. It's one game at a time and getting better each game as the season progresses, and that's what we're doing. Very proud of this team. Chemistry, coaching and performance are great.

Hopefully recruits pay attention and want to come and play here because this looks like the real deal in terms of the coaching staff and atmosphere.
 
topdecktiger said:
Nope. Notre Dame doesn't get the ACC's NY6 spot. Notre Dame's tie in with the ACC only applies to the other bowls.
Click to expand...

Do you have another link that makes this clarification ? I didn't see that distinction made in your original link, and I'd like to believe you're absolutely correct,
 
Lets face it,we lost to the most likely sorriest team in the SEC this season,no matter what this team does,those so called experts are gonna always say...Yeah, but they lost to south carolina. I say screw them and enjoy the best team we've had in years.
 
dgheel57 said:
Lets face it,we lost to the most likely sorriest team in the SEC this season,no matter what this team does,those so called experts are gonna always say...Yeah, but they lost to south carolina. I say screw them and enjoy the best team we've had in years.
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We play that South Carolina game NOW we wax them.

I honestly wish we could move that game (future games) to further into the season. I think playing that game right off the bat is sort of a trap.
 
The head of the Selection Committee was interviewed last night on the ACC Network panel (Bates, T. Bowden, Joe Ovies and ??) mid week pick 'em show. After his discussion of procedure, the moderator (Bates?) asked him about UNC's #23 ranking being significantly below other 1 loss teams, and he simply referred to the "early season loss" to a lower tier SEC team, and a record which to date included wins over 2 FCS teams (don't recall his mentioning any other comparison of the quality of our OOC schedule with those other 1-loss teams) and followed that up with "but if they continue to win against their remaining schedule, they will obviously move up". Apparently no consideration that the "early season loss" was really the season opener, with a QB who missed participation in spring practice due to injury rehab, and who was somewhat out of cinq, throwing 3 devastating picks in the opponents "Red Zone" costing the Heels at least 3 FG's, but who now is about the hottest QB in the country. In summary he "shrugged off" the question with a half-assed canned answer because UNC is still UNC, and isn't getting any serious review of their entire body of work (and, anyway, the results are still "preliminary").

Incidentally a lot of positive discussion of Marquise's (and the Tar Heels') season, and footage of TD throws against both Pitt and dook. Even some on screen analysis of how dook screwed up in pass coverage against the Heels last week..

Finally, when it came to picking this week's winners, 3 of the 4 picked the Heels. The 4th (either Bates or Ovies - don't remember which) cited Miami's growth, overall talent, and clear respect and attachment to the interim HC, and felt like the Heels may be in for a letdown - picked the Canes.
 
6666Heel said:
The head of the Selection Committee was interviewed last night on the ACC Network panel (Bates, T. Bowden, Joe Ovies and ??) mid week pick 'em show. After his discussion of procedure, the moderator (Bates?) asked him about UNC's #23 ranking being significantly below other 1 loss teams, and he simply referred to the "early season loss" to a lower tier SEC team, and a record which to date included wins over 2 FCS teams (don't recall his mentioning any other comparison of the quality of our OOC schedule with those other 1-loss teams) and followed that up with "but if they continue to win against their remaining schedule, they will obviously move up". Apparently no consideration that the "early season loss" was really the season opener, with a QB who missed participation in spring practice due to injury rehab, and who was somewhat out of cinq, throwing 3 devastating picks in the opponents "Red Zone" costing the Heels at least 3 FG's, but who now is about the hottest QB in the country. In summary he "shrugged off" the question with a half-assed canned answer because UNC is still UNC, and isn't getting any serious review of their entire body of work (and, anyway, the results are still "preliminary").

Incidentally a lot of positive discussion of Marquise's (and the Tar Heels') season, and footage of TD throws against both Pitt and dook. Even some on screen analysis of how dook screwed up in pass coverage against the Heels last week..

Finally, when it came to picking this week's winners, 3 of the 4 picked the Heels. The 4th (either Bates or Ovies - don't remember which) cited Miami's growth, overall talent, and clear respect and attachment to the interim HC, and felt like the Heels may be in for a letdown - picked the Canes.
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Fedora should've yanked Marquise out and put Trubisky in.I hold him just as accountable as any for that loss.
 
Speaking of perception versus reality... Interesting tweet from ESPN's David Hale. He points out that the College Playoff Committee has UNC ranked worse than all but one poll/metric but has FSU ranked better than all but one:

IMG_3004_jf6uxd.png
 
heelz2345 said:
While the win this weekend opened some eyes nationally, we still aren't getting the respect we deserve. In this article, ESPN calls our strength of schedule terrible, and says we would have to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season (beating Clemson) to be in the conversation for the playoff. They also say that win would be our only one vs. a ranked opponent this season, which is not true, because Pitt was ranked when we played them, and at the time we played GT & Duke, both were in the top 25 the previous week, but that's beside the point. If we played Clemson, the worst case scenario for our record would be 10-2, meaning we would most likely be ranked, yet they say it would be one of the biggest upsets of the season. Would it really be one of the biggest upsets of the season? A ranked team with 2 or fewer losses beating another ranked team, albeit one that is higher ranked? This week alone saw 5 ranked teams (including 3 unbeatens) lose to unranked teams, but if we beat Clemson, that would be a bigger upset? 2 ranked teams lost to lower ranked teams this week (and both lost by at least 2 TDs), but no one is calling those major upsets.

As for the SOS, if you compare the records of our opponents vs. Clemson's opponents, they are fairly even. Using all 12 of our regular season opponents, the numbers are as follows.

Combined Record of Clemson's Opponents: 58-51
Combined Record of Clemson's Non-conference Opponents: 22-14
Combined Record of Clemson's ACC Opponents: 36-37

Combined Record of UNC's Opponents: 56-52
Combined Record of UNC's Non-conference Opponents: 19-17
Combined Record of UNC's ACC Opponents: 37-35

As of this moment, our ACC schedule is tougher than Clemson's, and their non-conference is tougher than our's, thanks largely to Notre Dame, but overall, they are pretty close.

Good stuff, Heelz
Click to expand...
 
6666Heel said:
Do you have another link that makes this clarification ? I didn't see that distinction made in your original link, and I'd like to believe you're absolutely correct,
Click to expand...

Yes. In this link, it says:

The Irish will, however, become part of the ACC’s bowl pool for all postseason games outside the BCS.
http://acc.blogs.starnewsonline.com/31880/answering-some-faqs-about-accs-addition-of-notre-dame/
Click to expand...

Although there is no more "BCS," the NY6 is the same thing as the BCS.
 
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