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Pitt Game Discussion/Thoughts

L

lerario

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Oct 24, 2006
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Well, for the fourth game of the season this one is about as big as it gets. This is an absolute MUST WIN if we are to have any shot of winning 9 or 10 games and the Coastal.

The line opened up UNC -6.5 which seems a little high but I do think we are the better team.

How's everyone feeling? Confident? Terrified of our D? Somewhere in between?
 
Interesting game.

Have no idea who will win.

However, Pitt's offense can score having racked up 80 points total in our games with Penn State and Oklahoma State.

I guess it will come down to who has the better defense.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!
 
Panthergrowl13 said:
Interesting game.

Have no idea who will win.

However, Pitt's offense can score having racked up 80 points total in our games with Penn State and Oklahoma State.

I guess it will come down to who has the better defense.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Click to expand...

Pitt's offense has been great so far this year and your strengths match up perfectly (from a Pitt perspective) with our D's weaknesses. But your defensive performances so far have been pretty surprising. Penn St had a lot of success once they opened it up in the second half, and OSU shredded your secondary. What gives? Injuries? Underclassmen?
 
I think this will be a shootout. UNC had no defense, but their offense has got it going now. UNC wins if Fedora and the coaching staff do not out think themselves and UNC can cut down on penalties (both legit and not so legit).
 
It's all about the D line. Hopefully they are healthy and ready to go. If we can keep Pitt under 200 yards rushing then I think we can get the W.
 
This is the swing game for our season, especially with FSU and (let's face it) our likely loss to them following this game. A win here and the Coastal is ours to lose, especially with Virginia Tech following the FSU game. A loss here and we not only don't control our own destiny but we will also be extremely lacking in confidence. The players know what happened to Illinois this past weekend.....they know that our win up there now seems like a bit of fool's gold. This is the first real test since UGA.

I repeat, this game is the fulcrum to our season. I can't wait. For some reason I feel confident but I have no earthly idea why after watching our defense for 3 hours. Here's to hoping Mitch and T.J. continue to dominate.
 
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The health of our D-Line will dictate who wins this game. We will need Naz to be at least 80% and we need to cut down on the bone head personal files and false starts on offense. If this game was at Pitt I think we would lose a close one.
 
Kinda like UGA, this could come down to turnovers and special teams. I feel the coaches have probably been keeping trickery to a min vs Illinois and JMU, and the offensive play seemed a tad vanilla vs UGA.

Now that we're in the ACC, it will be no-holds-barred. We saw lots of blitzes vs uga, i'd expect plenty this weekend. Since our LBs have difficulty with angles, or reaction/decision or something, I say put in those that are best at blitzing and really practice communication to make sure the safety locks up the the gap they leave.
 
With Pitt's defense ranked 10th nationally against the run and having to respect our talented running backs, I think the flea flicker could be good for a couple of TD's this weekend.
 
Coming into the season, everyone pointed to the secondary as being the strongest unit on the defensive side of the ball. Well, this next game is the game the box needs to be stacked and the CBs need to play on an island.
 
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Penalties could be a huge deciding factor in this one. Neither team's defense can afford to give away free yardage and easy first downs. But on the flip side, offensive penalties could give the defenses a chance to get off the field in a game where there may not be very many stops.
 
Raising Heel said:
This stat is a little misleading. Penn State (113th) and Oklahoma State (119th) are two of the worst rushing teams in FBS.
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Yeah I'll agree with that. Pitt is built to stop the run, but Oklahoma State has no interest in running and threw the ball mostly at will for the first half of the game. In the Penn State game, they were playing from behind most of the game, so they were throwing it more than normal to try to come back.

Pitt has the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but if UNC can stop the run, Pitt hasn't really shown any ability to throw the ball.

UNC's edge is the mismatch with the wideouts vs Pitt's secondary, but if why can get pressure on Mitch or get UNC to abandon the run, that would be a win.
 
I'm still not really sure how I feel about this one. Getting Drennon and Naz back will be huge, especially Naz. Going back to the Baylor game, and then last week, we are clearly a different defense without him. Drennon probably won't have a huge impact, but at the very least he gives us another option if Powell plays as poorly as he did against JMU, and perhaps it's a nice emotional boost just to have him back. I don't have much confidence in the D overall, but hopefully they'll surprise and play much better than last week.

Their defense has been trash so far and if MT hits the deep ball like he did last week then we'll be fine. If they are forced to play two deep safeties and 5 or 6 DBs the whole game then Hood and Logan should have plenty of room to run too. My gut says it will look a lot like the first half of JMU, except I don't expect Pitt to fade in the second half the way JMU did. If we can get a lead and force them to play from behind all day then I really like our chances.
 
razzaba said:
Yeah I'll agree with that. Pitt is built to stop the run, but Oklahoma State has no interest in running and threw the ball mostly at will for the first half of the game. In the Penn State game, they were playing from behind most of the game, so they were throwing it more than normal to try to come back.

Pitt has the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but if UNC can stop the run, Pitt hasn't really shown any ability to throw the ball.

UNC's edge is the mismatch with the wideouts vs Pitt's secondary, but if why can get pressure on Mitch or get UNC to abandon the run, that would be a win.
Click to expand...

Can't agree with you here. Our OL is very good, especially pass pro. They've had to shuffle some guys at RG and are still gelling in the run game, but it's a very talented and experienced unit.
 
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i'm still not sold on our run-blocking. Seems different without landon turner.

Or perhaps teams last yr were spying much on on MW, while this yr they aren't considering MT as a run weapon to worry about and that was slowing down in-the-box defenders, making our blocking job more easy.
 
blazers said:
i'm still not sold on our run-blocking. Seems different without landon turner.

Or perhaps teams last yr were spying much on on MW, while this yr they aren't considering MT as a run weapon to worry about and that was slowing down in-the-box defenders, making our blocking job more easy.
Click to expand...

The line has definitely been a little underwhelming in the run game, at least based on preseason expectations. I think what we've seen so far is defenses crowding the box a little more and cheating safeties up, basically saying until we see it consistently we are going to do our best to take away the run and short passes, and make Trubisky beat us over the top. Well now there is film of MT torching a defense using this strategy. It'll be interesting to see how defenses adjust if he continues hitting the deep ball. Eventually they'll have to pick their poison.

To your point on MW, there's no doubt the threat of his running ability helped to open things up for our backs and made the lines job easier. Hopefully the more credible threat of MT making all the throws will stretch defenses a little more, and I also expect will see him keep on the zone read a little more especially if defenses are cheating to hard to the RBs.
 
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Raising Heel said:
This stat is a little misleading. Penn State (113th) and Oklahoma State (119th) are two of the worst rushing teams in FBS.
Click to expand...
Granted, but we're averaging almost twice as many YPC as either of those teams. So I think they'll have to key on our running game more than they did for those teams, leaving a secondary that hasn't been very good defending the pass to cover our explosive receivers one on one. And if they only rush four, it should open up our running game. I think both teams will have a hard time defending the opposing team's offense. But I think our offense is more explosive and will generate more big plays. Still think we'll see a flea flicker for a TD.

Win the TO battle and we win this game, IMO.
 
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lerario said:
I'm still not really sure how I feel about this one. Getting Drennon and Naz back will be huge, especially Naz. Going back to the Baylor game, and then last week, we are clearly a different defense without him. Drennon probably won't have a huge impact, but at the very least he gives us another option if Powell plays as poorly as he did against JMU, and perhaps it's a nice emotional boost just to have him back. I don't have much confidence in the D overall, but hopefully they'll surprise and play much better than last week.

Their defense has been trash so far and if MT hits the deep ball like he did last week then we'll be fine. If they are forced to play two deep safeties and 5 or 6 DBs the whole game then Hood and Logan should have plenty of room to run too. My gut says it will look a lot like the first half of JMU, except I don't expect Pitt to fade in the second half the way JMU did. If we can get a lead and force them to play from behind all day then I really like our chances.
Click to expand...

Pitt's problem on D has been their susceptibility on the pass plays especially the long bomb.

Pitt should be in it the entire game. They matched Oklahoma State the entire game point for point until the end when our QB through an Interception.

For Pitt the key to victory is correction of their secondary problems.

In any event, I'm looking for a high scoring game and the last man standing wins.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!
 
This isn't your father's Oklahoma State team, they're pretty weak. And let's face it, this is one of the weakest PSU teams in recent history. They beat Kent State 33-13 and Temple 34-27, hardly impressive wins. If Pitt plays significantly better than they have to date, they can certainly win this game. But they'll have to step up their game on both sides of the ball. I think they'll have to score 40 points to win, and while our defense leaves a lot to be desired, I feel confident we can hold them under 40.
 
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Just saw on twitter that the last 6 games unc d is allowing 325 yds rushing/game. Among all fbs teams that is dead freaking last. how the hell did we get that bad? Until thats fixed i honestly cant feel good about beating anyone.
 
Giving up almost 1,000 to two of the best offensive lines in the country in Clemson and Baylor skewed those numbers a bit. Still, there's no doubt that it is still our weakness and must improve significantly. Our run defense will be sorely tested again this weekend. Thank goodness Naz and Drennon are back, even if in limited roles.
 
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94tarheel said:
Coming into the season, everyone pointed to the secondary as being the strongest unit on the defensive side of the ball. Well, this next game is the game the box needs to be stacked and the CBs need to play on an island.
Click to expand...
I agree 100% with this. Stack the darn box and let our corners play one on one. Make them beat us with what they don't do as well....pass the ball.
 
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heelmanwilm said:
Just saw on twitter that the last 6 games unc d is allowing 325 yds rushing/game. Among all fbs teams that is dead freaking last. how the hell did we get that bad? Until thats fixed i honestly cant feel good about beating anyone.
Click to expand...
I saw that too. Not really a good stat though. You can't compare two different teams. The 2015 team is not the same as the 2016 team. The media usually isn't concerned with apt comparisons though.
 
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Our d line needs to step up a little bit and we have to have zero turnovers

Gonna be a great game IMO and I think we win a squeaker... a high scoring squeaker like 52-49
 
Archer2 said:
This isn't your father's Oklahoma State team, they're pretty weak. And let's face it, this is one of the weakest PSU teams in recent history. They beat Kent State 33-13 and Temple 34-27, hardly impressive wins. If Pitt plays significantly better than they have to date, they can certainly win this game. But they'll have to step up their game on both sides of the ball. I think they'll have to score 40 points to win, and while our defense leaves a lot to be desired, I feel confident we can hold them under 40.
Click to expand...

You may not be giving Oklahoma State enough credit.

To recap Oklahoma State (10-3 in 2015) was ranked (preseason 2016) as a Top 25 Team (Coaches #19, AP #22, SI #17). OK. State lost on a last second play to CMU which was based on an incorrect call by the officials (which were subsequently given a suspension for their actions).

Had the error not been made, OK State would be undefeated and in the Top 25.

Lets see how the rest of the season plays out for them.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!
 
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Panthergrowl13 said:
You may not be giving Oklahoma State enough credit.

To recap Oklahoma State (10-3 in 2015) was ranked (preseason 2016) as a Top 25 Team (Coaches #19, AP #22, SI #17). OK. State lost on a last second play to CMU which was based on an incorrect call by the officials (which were subsequently given a suspension for their actions).

HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Click to expand...
Perhaps so. But we're talking about the CMU Chippewas for goodness sake. Cowboy teams of the past would have routed the Chippewas.
 
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Archer2 said:
Perhaps so. But we're talking about the CMU Chippewas for goodness sake. Cowboy teams of the past would have routed the Chippewas.
Click to expand...


Happens all the time.

Just this year, Miss State loss to South Alabama, Washington State loss to Eastern Washington,
Oklahoma loss to Houston, Tennessee barely beating Appalachian State to name a few.

Should be a good game Saturday.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!
 
Panthergrowl13 said:
Happens all the time.

Just this year, Miss State loss to South Alabama, Washington State loss to Eastern Washington,
Oklahoma loss to Houston, Tennessee barely beating Appalachian State to name a few.

Should be a good game Saturday.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Click to expand...
Houston is ranked in the Top 10 and is better than Oklahoma. Just FYI
 
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Panthergrowl13 said:
Happens all the time.

Just this year, Miss State loss to South Alabama, Washington State loss to Eastern Washington,
Oklahoma loss to Houston, Tennessee barely beating Appalachian State to name a few.

Should be a good game Saturday.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Click to expand...

Miss State is not good
Washington State is not good
Houston is legitimately better than OU
Tennessee appears to be very overrated

Oklahoma State is a decent team but nothing special. Definitely not Top 25.
 
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