POLL: Predict Our Loss Total for Next Season

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I know there will be a few people who get upset because I made this about losses instead of wins. But wins are more variable than losses because while you can't lose more than once in the NCAA tournament, you can potentially win 6 times (or even 7 times if you start with a play-in game). Similarly, depending on how many byes you get, you could have up to 5 wins in the ACC tourney but never more than 1 loss (if any).

Historically, Roy's teams at UNC have averaged 8.2 losses per season.

Most tournament-bound teams end up with a loss in their conference and in the NCAA. UNC is no exception. So most years you can pencil in 2 losses at the end of the season.

Here's an historical breakdown breaking out preseason and conference losses

YEAR PRE ACC ACCT NCT TOT
2017  2   4   1   0   7
2016  2   4   0   1   7
2015  3   7   1   1  12
2014  3   5   1   1  10
2013  3   6   1   1  11
2012  2   2   1   1   6
2011  4   2   1   1   8
2010  4  11   1   1  17
2009  0   3   1   0   4
2008  0   2   0   1   3
2007  1   5   0   1   7
2006  2   4   1   1   8
2005  1   2   1   0   4
2004  1   8   1   1  11
AVE   2 4.6 .78 .78  8.2

.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

This is a cut and paste from another thread showing our conference with attention to who we play on the road.

1 - Duke - Home and Away
2 - Louisville - Away
3 - UNC
3 - Notre Dame - Home and Away
4 - Miami - Home
7 - Va Tech - Away
8 - Virginia - Away
9 - FSU - Away
B - Clemson - Home and Away
B - Ga Tech - Home
X - NC State - Home and Away
X - Syracuse - Away
X - Wake - Home
X - Pitt - Home
X - BC - Home

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

And here's our non-conference schedule. Again, the away games are highlighted.

Fri., Nov. 10 vs. Northern Iowa (Smith Center)
Wed., Nov. 15 vs. Bucknell (Smith Center)
Mon., Nov. 20 at Stanford
Thurs., Nov. 23 vs. Portland (PK80 in Portland, Ore.)
Fri., Nov. 24 vs. Arkansas or Oklahoma (PK80 in Portland, Ore.)
Sun., Nov. 26 vs. Connecticut, Georgetown, Michigan State or Oregon (PK80 in Portland, Ore.)
Wed., Nov. 29 vs. Michigan (ACC/Big Ten Challenge, Smith Center)
Fri., Dec. 1 at Davidson (Spectrum Center in Charlotte)
Sun., Dec. 3 vs. Tulane (Smith Center)
Wed., Dec. 6 vs. Western Carolina (Smith Center)
Sun., Dec. 17 at Tennessee
Wed., Dec. 20 vs. Wofford (Smith Center)
Sat., Dec. 23 vs. Ohio State (CBS Sports Classic in New Orleans)

 

[dolphinzrwj]

We will probably have over 10 losses but as long as we are playing our best basketball toward the end of the year is all that matters imho.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Northern Iowa should be a creampuff. They weren't good last year, lost a couple of starters and didn't have a good recruiting class. So barring some redshirts, transfers or other surprises, they should be an easy tuneup.

But our 2nd game against Bucknell could be an interesting test. Unless someone transferred or left early, they return all their starters from a 13 seed in the NCAA tournament last season, where they lost by only 6 to a good WVa team.

Their main shortcoming is just that: they're short. So they could be a good team for our green bigs to gain some confidence. Alternatively, they could be a good team to test our small ball options against.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Roy had better not be planning to go easy on Haase and Stanford. When he did that vs Haase @ UAB, it didn't work out that well for us.

Stanford wasn't good enough to make it into the NCAAT last season and was only ranked #102 by Pomeroy. But they only lost 1 senior starter and they bring in the 13th ranked recruiting class in the nation that includes top-50 kids at SF and CG. They start guys 6'9 and 6'8 - both 245, both seniors - and can bring 7'0 and 6'11 off the bench.

Point being that this could be a dangerous game. First road game of the year. First college road game ever for most of our bigs. Plus facing an experienced, deep front line.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Then there's the tournament. Three games over 4 days. The first game should be easy. Presumably Roy will keep the important guys fresh. Either or both of the next 2 games in the tournament could be traps.

 

[DSouthr]

I will go with about 12 losses, hope for less but this team may take a while to come together but by season end I think we will be a team no opponents want to see.

 

[ohio tarheels]

I went with 9. 2 in Non-Conf, 5 in ACC play, 1 each in AccT and NCAa

 

[gunslingerdick]

2 nonconference
7 ACC
1 in ACCT
1 in NCAAT
11 total losses

But I also believe we could be a scary team at the end of the year.

 

[Archer2]

2 nonconference
7 ACC
1 in ACCT
1 in NCAAT
11 total losses

But I also believe we could be a scary team at the end of the year.

I went with 10 but I think this is about right.

 

[Spacegrass]

It's all about Berry. He gets hurt and misses significant time it's 12+ losses. If he is healthy and sharp all season it could be 6-8 loses & the Final 4.

 

[heels05champs]

I went with 11 losses but feel like it will be somewhere in the 10-12 loss range. I see a sweet 16 team with potential of elite 8 if things fall right in our tourney bracket.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

I went 10

3 non-conference (one against a good team like MSU, two against head scratchers as Roy tests out lineups)
5 ACC losses (@duke, @UL, @ND, and then another road game and a home game)
1 ACCT loss in the finals to Duke
1 NCAAT loss in the elite eight.

 

[Heelswin]

We better play em one at a time ... and well remember that each opponent will play over their heads v. UNC, esp since we are defending Champs! If you are not ready for that, then you better not suit up!!!

 

[Steat]

6 losses going into the ACC tournament--Lose in Final Four.

 

[B3rry]

5 L's
vs. Northern Iowa - W
vs. Bucknell - W
at Stanford - L
vs. Portland - W
vs. Arkansas or Oklahoma - W
vs. Connecticut, Georgetown, Michigan State or Oregon - W
vs. Michigan - W
at Davidson - W
vs. Tulane - W
vs. Western Carolina - W
at Tennessee - W
vs. Wofford - W
vs. Ohio State - W
Duke - Home - L
Away - W
Louisville - Away - L
Notre Dame - Home - W
Away - W
Miami - Home - W
Va Tech - Away - L
Virginia - Away - W
FSU - Away - W
Clemson - Home - W
Away - W
Ga Tech - Home - W
NC State - Home - W
Away - W
Syracuse - Away - W
Wake - Home - W
Pitt - Home - W
BC - Home - W
ACC Tournament quarter or semifinals - L
R64 - W
R32 - W
S16 - W
E8 - W
F4 - W
NC - W