Predicting The ACC (w/ Depth Charts)

[JimmyNaismith]

Recruiting class rankings are nice, but what really matters is the talent and experience levels of the 2-deep depth chart. In fact, I put a limited about of data together last year, and created a regression analysis that predicts a team's winning percentage based on the talent level and the coach's lifetime winning record. The equation is:

PCT = 0.182 * STUD + 0.827 * COACH​

PCT = projected team winning percentage
STUD = percent of 2-deep that is studs (0.0-1.0)
COACH = head coach's all-time winning percentage (0.0-1.0)

In order to assess the talent level, I scraped the rosters of selected teams, assembled the team's depth chart, then combed through the bios of the players. I have a criteria for what I call a "stud recruit", and by calculating the percentage of studs on a team, I can quantify the talent for the equation.

The equation is based on a small sample size, so don't go to Las Vegas based on this information, but the R-squared is 0.924 and it did predict a 0.659 winning percentage for last year's UNC team (UNC finished 9-5, or 0.643). With that, let's look at how the important teams in the ACC are shaking out this season (barring injuries):

#1 Clemson​

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This team is absolutely loaded. In the 45 teams I've analyzed since 2016, this year's Clemson squad has the heaviest population of studs I've seen; 3% more than Alabama (2016) and 16% more than Clemson (2016). They have plenty of experience, too. Clemson's minor weaknesses are in their WR and Linebacker corps. Their O and D lines are flat out awesome. If this team misses the playoff, it will be a monumental failure on Dabo's part. I'll be surprised if the calculation is correct on this team.
Stud Percent: 74%
Projected Winning Percentage: 81%

#2 UNC​

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This is the most talented UNC team since 2016, and has plenty of experience. Along with one of the country's best QBs, the receiver and tight end rooms are loaded. The weakness with this team is the OL. The defense, especially the DL, is loaded, but it remains to be seen if they can perform to the levels they should.
Stud Percent: 46%
Projected Winning Percentage: 63%

#3 Florida State​

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The media is all about this FSU team, but I don't get it. They are loaded at WR, but their OL is very shaky, and the entire defense really lacks overall talent. The 2-deep has a startling number of transfers, as well. They are the most experienced team in this year's study, but the calculations show that high experience really goes against a squad (underscoring the talent deficit).
Stud Percent: 25%
Projected Winning Percentage: 58%

#4 Pittsburgh​

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Pitt is short on studs, but they have a very solid roster across the board. The WR corps is a big question mark for this team, though. Expect them to run a lot.
Stud Percent: 31%
Projected Winning Percentage: 55%

#5 NCSU​

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NCSU is loaded at DL, but the defensive backfield and the OL are very shaky. The real question is: can the new OC, reunited with Armstrong, make Armstrong look like a decent QB like he did at UVA?
Stud Percent: 22%
Projected Winning Percentage: 52%

Miami and Duke are also interesting teams, but I haven't had time to assemble their rosters.

Others​

South Carolina​

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South Carolina is loaded at WR, and their DL looks solid. In fact outside of Clemson, UofSC has the best offense UNC will face in the regular season. Spencer Rattler certainly had the hype train behind him once upon a time, but last season he was merely "good". The defensive backfield, however, leaves a lot to be desired. I expect them to lose a lot of high-scoring games.
Stud Percent: 36%
Projected Winning Percentage: 54%

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We'll see how accurate those projections are. The standard error is 17%, which is a cushion of +/- 2 wins. I think that's pretty big. Clemson's toughest games will be FSU, @NCSU, Notre Dame, UNC, and @UofSC. Will they lose 2 of those? Maayyybe. It will have to come down to something like turnovers or FG kicking for them to lose 2, in my opinion.

What are people's thoughts on FSU? I am not believing that roster.

 

[kjcooper]

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