Quick stuff (alabama game - NCAAT)...

[gary-7]

...and that was totally self-inflicted.

Apologies for the lag, but with nerves raw (mine included), I wanted to wait a bit. With that said, this will be very short and with only a couple of polnts of analysis. Some may not like it, but this is my take. Here goes:

- first, I've watched bama more times than I cared to this season and TBH, they shouldn't have made it past the first damn weekend. They can't defend the post without doubling (even when they have 2 Bigs in), they play out of control, and as much as they like to run, IF YOU SPEED THEM UP they won't defend at all. In other words, bama is a team you OUTSCORE, and if you're good enough to push tempo, they'll make that pretty easy to accomplish.

- The only danger is that they will shoot 3s any time and then crash the boards. We did NOT do a good job of boxing out and that hurt a LOT.
,
- Sears is most effective driving. OK, it was an interesting move putting Ryan on him and it worked... for a while --- until it didn't. In the 2nd half they just used their illegal screens like football pulling guards to escort him to the block, which nullified Ryan's size. We SHOULD have adjusted back --- our little guys were in no foul trouble and they would've been quicker and better at beating the screener.

- We also should have matched their 2 Bigs sooner in the second half, or better, kept feeding the post to foul one out.

OK, enough of that...
- The deciding issue was our entire 2nd half approach. Folks, when an opponent has a length advantage, that is ONLY an advantage in the HALF COURT. You negate that by RUNNING. Sure, they like to run, but WE RUN BETTER. We hung 54 on them running and playing at optimum tempo in the first half. Hell, it's not an exaggeration that a good team that can push tempo can put up a buck-ten on bama on any given night. YET... we inexplicably turned it into a half-court game. Y'all know I love Hubert and the staff, but sorry guys, that was a really bad move.

- To make that point further, I think most of y'all know that I track "transition points" as Fast Break + Secondary Break (which BTW includes the iterations within the Secondary before shifting into a called play or Freelance).
Folks --- we scored zero ---- Z E R O --- transition points in the 2nd half.
I have literally NEVER had that before on my note sheet.

- Bottom line? We'd work our asses off to get a basket and they'd run down and shoot a 3 whenever they could --- and they made enough to make the difference. Moreover, when we played half-court, it allowed their length to compensate for their unsound defense.

Finally... I said it before --- there would come a night when a (yet another) missed dunk would cost us dearly, or when RJ having to play hero-ball couldn't bail us out of a game we'd allowed to be too close for comfort. Well, it happened at the worst time --- in the Dance. BUT... that's not a knock on any player who's busting their ass out there --- no, letting this game come down to that was a strategic mistake, IMO.

Look, I take NO satisfaction from saying I told you so, but for much of this season I have been a broken record about the dangers of takng our foot off the gas, i.e., playing NOT TO LOSE. Welp, this time we did it for an ENTIRE HALF, and it kept a team (that we are WAY better than) in the game just enough to let it slip away --- all the while the only PG on the team, the guy who drives our transition game and tempo, spends the last 16 minutes on the bench.

Anyway. I know we all absolutely HATE that it is ending too soon, and losing to a garbage program just makes it worse. I only know that (if I can still make myself care) I will be the biggest Clemson fan on the planet Saturday...

So --- that's it for the season.
We were blessed with a great combination of guys who genuinely like and respect each other, a staff that reinstated Carolina culture, and warriors like RJ and Mando putting their notches in the record books. And for much of this season, especially when the Ferrari was cranked up. this team has been a PLEASURE to watch. At this point, until next season I just hope I keep waking up with the driver still on board...

 

[NorCalTarheel]

Cancel the amber alert! Glad you're with us Gary.

Nice recap, per usual. Thanks for doing it all season. I didn't always agree (mostly did) but that's what message boards are for.

Even when it hurts, it's a GDTBATH!!!

 

[gary-7]

Cancel the amber alert! Glad you're with us Gary.

Nice recap, per usual. Thanks for doing it all season. I didn't always agree (mostly did) but that's what message boards are for.

Even when it hurts, it's a GDTBATH!!!

You are welcome.

 

[heelmanwilm]

Wow Zero transition points against a team that runs is just mind boggling. Good catch. I think Hubert’s 2nd half may have been a case of him over thinking things. They couldn’t stop what we were doing in the first half yet we inexplicably went full retard with the rotations in the second. It absolutely killed me to see such a promising season circling the drain the second half with that line up out there. The last minute especially was as bad as I’ve seen a unc team look in such a situation….ever.

 

[Ozheelfan]

Thanks for the recap and for all of them this season Gary.

Regarding the game…. I said to my son that Hubert was going to repeat his season-long mistake of subbing out EC at the under 16…. Of course he did and that is where I believe the game was lost. Another run or two and the heels could have stretched the lead upwards of 20 and in the college game that can be huge.

Instead, with EC on the bench, Bama made their own run, came close to level and started believing they could get back in it.

For the life of me I can’t understand why you’d take your foot off someone’s throat in this game.

Look, Hubert made many adjustments in his coaching this year compared to last year and hopefully he’ll do more self analysis and come back next.season with a few more strings in his bow.

 

[al would]

At this point, until next season I just hope I keep waking up with the driver still on board...

I started thinking that very same thing near the end of the game ... and said so in the "transfer portal" thread not long after the game. Recruiting top talent is great, but keeping them around is another and I know there is at least one UNC LEGIT PG wondering about his future especially if RJ comes back for another year at UNC for NIL $$. It would be a shame to lose the driver but I wouldn't blame him if he bailed .. considering the way he was used in his first year. Ya can't fix stupid.

 

[NathanFielder]

In the first half UNC scored 17 points with Cadeau on the floor and that obviously included his 2 made 3s.

So idk how much Cadeau had to do with the first half. Also, UNC got 4 made 3s from Cadeau and Trimble in the first half. I don’t know if you credit all that to tempo, coaching, etc. There was probably some good fortune that played into that too.

While I would’ve played Cadeau in the second half, there are no guarantees that would’ve changed the result in this one.

The made 3s didn’t really help Seth’s confidence. He twice turned down open 3s to take terrible mid range jumpers. And Cadeau shot an airball. So the flukey thing that was working in the first half probably wasn’t carrying over.

Also, probably a different result if Cadeau makes a wide open layup. If Bacot makes a relatively uncontested lefty layup. And if Bacot makes a dunk.

There were plenty of opportunities to win the game with the players on the floor.

We also had absolutely no answer for Nelson. Once they figured that out, our defense was in trouble.

 

[gary-7]

In the first half UNC scored 17 points with Cadeau on the floor and that obviously included his 2 made 3s.

So idk how much Cadeau had to do with the first half. Also, UNC got 4 made 3s from Cadeau and Trimble in the first half. I don’t know if you credit all that to tempo, coaching, etc. There was probably some good fortune that played into that too.

While I would’ve played Cadeau in the second half, there are no guarantees that would’ve changed the result in this one.

The made 3s didn’t really help Seth’s confidence. He twice turned down open 3s to take terrible mid range jumpers. And Cadeau shot an airball. So the flukey thing that was working in the first half probably wasn’t carrying over.

Also, probably a different result if Cadeau makes a wide open layup. If Bacot makes a relatively uncontested lefty layup. And if Bacot makes a dunk.

There were plenty of opportunities to win the game with the players on the floor.

We also had absolutely no answer for Nelson. Once they figured that out, our defense was in trouble.

For my response I am just gonna gently suggest you read what I wrote in the +/- thread and leave it at that.

 

[NathanFielder]

For my response I am just gonna gently suggest you read what I wrote in the +/- thread and leave it at that.

Your response:
As for the +/-, as I have always said, that has to be viewed in CONTEXT, and Eliot's was skewed by happening to be on the floor when bama came out of the locker room hot (thru no fault of his), and mostly by only playing (an unthinkable) 13 minutes. The entirety of this season has shown that, given minutes, he will move that + column pretty consistently and impactfully, given that he came in with the best +/- rate on the team.

I’m glad you have your own interpretation of +/-.

I also didn’t talk about +/- at all. Most of our 1st half offensive damage was done without Cadeau on the floor. We double without Cadeau in the first half. I was only talking about the offensive production.

I just choose not to go as far as to assume that the production would’ve been better, worse or the same with Cadeau on the floor. The 54 in the first half was aided by flukey things. Like 4 3s from 2 players who don’t like shooting 3s. And Seth going 2-2 from the FT line. None of those things are transferrable so I disagree that the first half is just a carryover assumption to the second half.

I would’ve played him more and play him basically the entire 2H because I would rather go down with my 5 best.

 

[gary-7]

Your response:
As for the +/-, as I have always said, that has to be viewed in CONTEXT, and Eliot's was skewed by happening to be on the floor when bama came out of the locker room hot (thru no fault of his), and mostly by only playing (an unthinkable) 13 minutes. The entirety of this season has shown that, given minutes, he will move that + column pretty consistently and impactfully, given that he came in with the best +/- rate on the team.

I’m glad you have your own interpretation of +/-.

I also didn’t talk about +/- at all. Most of our 1st half offensive damage was done without Cadeau on the floor. We double without Cadeau in the first half. I was only talking about the offensive production.

I just choose not to go as far as to assume that the production would’ve been better, worse or the same with Cadeau on the floor. The 54 in the first half was aided by flukey things. Like 4 3s from 2 players who don’t like shooting 3s. And Seth going 2-2 from the FT line. None of those things are transferrable so I disagree that the first half is just a carryover assumption to the second half.

I would’ve played him more and play him basically the entire 2H because I would rather go down with my 5 best.

Ok, look, I haven't interacted with you before, so I'm just going to lay this out:
First, let's get this straight: It is not MY interpretation of +/-, it is literally the only valid interpretation. CONTEXT.
Second, there is a reason I don't even look at box scores before I do my analyses here. They don't tell you shit, per se, other than who won, and you can get that on the news.
Third, "flukey"? And you know this parameter how? You;ve followed their careers or watched them up close?
Fourth, OK, you would have played EC more --- and on that we agree --- but the problem went beyond that. It was about the whole approach to the second half.
Fifth, I have a circle of current and former coaches, every damn one of whom has texted or called me in the last 24 hours (and making my head hurt) asking me WTF we were doing in the second half, vis-a-vis approach and wasting Cadeau. They ain't wrong.
Sixth and finally, it never ceases to amaze me, just taking in what is being said around the nation, as to how almost everyone seems to appreciate what we have in Cadeau --- that is, other than a few vocal UNC fans, and at times (it would seem), our own HC.

 

[notashelbyfan]

I never agree with @gary-7 on anything ever but EC should have played no less than 17 minutes in the 2nd half.

Him on the floor and we win, he don't have to shoot/make 3's for us to win we have won all year with him not making 3's when he does drop a couple it's a bonus.

Withers should have been on the bench cheering with 1:02 to play up a point in a Sweet 16 game, he should get his minutes only to give starters a breather for winning time.

Hubert was vastly improved this season over last year, but he shit the bed last night!

 

[QA112]

Gary,
Thanks for the analysis all season. Frustrating as this game was, it came down to making shots that didn't fall. Lots of bad decisions by the players and Hubert was stuck adjusting. Hopefully all the players stay. Go Heels!

 

[NathanFielder]

Ok, look, I haven't interacted with you before, so I'm just going to lay this out:
First, let's get this straight: It is not MY interpretation of +/-, it is literally the only valid interpretation. CONTEXT.
Second, there is a reason I don't even look at box scores before I do my analyses here. They don't tell you shit, per se, other than who won, and you can get that on the news.
Third, "flukey"? And you know this parameter how? You;ve followed their careers or watched them up close?
Fourth, OK, you would have played EC more --- and on that we agree --- but the problem went beyond that. It was about the whole approach to the second half.
Fifth, I have a circle of current and former coaches, every damn one of whom has texted or called me in the last 24 hours (and making my head hurt) asking me WTF we were doing in the second half, vis-a-vis approach and wasting Cadeau. They ain't wrong.
Sixth and finally, it never ceases to amaze me, just taking in what is being said around the nation, as to how almost everyone seems to appreciate what we have in Cadeau --- that is, other than a few vocal UNC fans, and at times (it would seem), our own HC.

Well there is some context to plus/minus in this game. Alabama doesn’t throw the ball into the block so any offense they run will likely have Cadeau involved in the defense someway. But ok, lets take away defense so we’ll take away plus/minus. UNC scored 17 points with Cadeau on the floor and 37 points scored with him on the bench. So purely offensively Cadeau is consistently involved and we were drastically more explosive with him on the bench.

I don’t know how closely you want me to follow Trimble and Cadeau but I’ve watched the games this year (and last year for Trimble). I can safely say when they both make two 3s in one half…. It’s a surprise and not an expectation. And something that I’m assuming is not sustainable. Assuming, you know… like assuming it would’ve turned out differently with Cadeau in the 2H.

I see your point of playing faster in the 2H. To be honest, I didn’t think Alabama could win a grind it out kind of game. And I don’t think they would’ve if we did some easy things better in the 2H. Bacot missed a layup and a dunk. Then fumbled the ball when he had a 1 on 1 post up. Potentially 6 points there. Cadeau missed a wide open layup in the 1H. RJ missed a front end at the end of the 1H. We left at least 8 points on the board. Do easy better and you win the game. But again, I see where you’re coming from.

To your last point…. Not sure why we’re making this a **** measuring contest but I’m plenty connected to. I have current college basketball, former college basketball, and former NBA coaches in my contacts. And even more who played at both levels.

Yes, like me and like you they would’ve played Cadeau in the 2nd half. They’ve also all told me he’s a talented PG but he’s a limited one. The guys I’ve spoken to are not as certain about his greatness as you or this board is. Their logic was more that you have a PG dependent system at UNC. Why are you taking out your only true PG?

I know you love Cadeau. And think he’s the second coming of insert great UNC PG here. But him playing more didn’t guarantee a different result. He had an up and down season. We were better with him on the floor than off but we werent unbeatable with him. I simply disagree of just assuming things would’ve been different with him on the floor.

Maybe RJ gets good looks with Cadeau on the floor. Does RJ make them? I thought RJ got maybe 3 premium looks from 3. He didn’t make any of them. No guarantee that it plays out different just because Cadeau is on the floor.

 

[39 Feet Above Sea Level]

Gary, thanks for stepping back in with your analysis. It certainly contributes to my limited
understanding of hoops in general and our Tar Heels in particular.
All (most) of us are Carolina fans of varying pedigrees. As an alum (from a northern state) who graduated in ‘77,
my young wife and l became connected with the Southern Part of Heaven as she began her career as a fledgling
physical therapist at UNC Medical Center, which included rotations involving player rehabilitations and treatments.
She knew Dean and the staff and many players; Phil, Mitch, Walter, Tommy, et. al. I lived vicariously through her, it was more than kinda cool. Fast forward 50 years, l’ve hooked up family and friends to Carolina and l relish
our love for all things Carolina and we still visit Chapel Hill often.
I’m rambling my ass off, but l have arrived at a simple bottom line:
End of season losses suck the most; 67 teams with dreams have them. It is still a GDTBATH.
To all of the Tar Heel Radar posters and fans: Peace, love, and hopes of future success for all of us.
❤️⛹🏾‍♂️🏀

 

[gary-7]

Well there is some context to plus/minus in this game. Alabama doesn’t throw the ball into the block so any offense they run will likely have Cadeau involved in the defense someway. But ok, lets take away defense so we’ll take away plus/minus. UNC scored 17 points with Cadeau on the floor and 37 points scored with him on the bench. So purely offensively Cadeau is consistently involved and we were drastically more explosive with him on the bench.

I don’t know how closely you want me to follow Trimble and Cadeau but I’ve watched the games this year (and last year for Trimble). I can safely say when they both make two 3s in one half…. It’s a surprise and not an expectation. And something that I’m assuming is not sustainable. Assuming, you know… like assuming it would’ve turned out differently with Cadeau in the 2H.

I see your point of playing faster in the 2H. To be honest, I didn’t think Alabama could win a grind it out kind of game. And I don’t think they would’ve if we did some easy things better in the 2H. Bacot missed a layup and a dunk. Then fumbled the ball when he had a 1 on 1 post up. Potentially 6 points there. Cadeau missed a wide open layup in the 1H. RJ missed a front end at the end of the 1H. We left at least 8 points on the board. Do easy better and you win the game. But again, I see where you’re coming from.

To your last point…. Not sure why we’re making this a **** measuring contest but I’m plenty connected to. I have current college basketball, former college basketball, and former NBA coaches in my contacts. And even more who played at both levels.

Yes, like me and like you they would’ve played Cadeau in the 2nd half. They’ve also all told me he’s a talented PG but he’s a limited one. The guys I’ve spoken to are not as certain about his greatness as you or this board is. Their logic was more that you have a PG dependent system at UNC. Why are you taking out your only true PG?

I know you love Cadeau. And think he’s the second coming of insert great UNC PG here. But him playing more didn’t guarantee a different result. He had an up and down season. We were better with him on the floor than off but we werent unbeatable with him. I simply disagree of just assuming things would’ve been different with him on the floor.

Maybe RJ gets good looks with Cadeau on the floor. Does RJ make them? I thought RJ got maybe 3 premium looks from 3. He didn’t make any of them. No guarantee that it plays out different just because Cadeau is on the floor.

Wait, what is wrong with them "getting Cadeau involved" on defense?
I'll take that. Eliot is in fact a damned good defender for a frosh and lightning quick. So many here focus on fouls, but how often has that even been an issue of late? And it certainly wasn't going into the 2nd half of this game..

And BTW, if you know my opinions as you say you do, you would know that I have prefaced my analyses here for YEARS on the very fact that UNC is, yes, a PG dependent system. And, as I've said over and over here, Cadeau is our only legit PG.

And for the record, nowhere have I said EC is a finished product, nor that we are "invincible" with him, so how about putting that noise to rest, huh? The issue I pointed out was that EC on the floor (even at this stage of his maturation) gives us our best chance to win, and while (of course) there are never "guarantees", let's just say it would've been a pretty safe bet Thursday.

Finally, since it seems that you and your friends agree with me on the approach and personnel critique, it would also seem that you're the only one who has an interest in any "contest" --- it sure ain't me. So again, let's just put that nonsense to rest and move on.

Have a nice day.

 

[tcb22]

As I posted in another thread, most of our players and coaches have things that they did or didn't do in this game that will haunt them. Sometimes you run into a game that is just not to be. And who would have thought that Nelson would become an unstoppable force in the last 10 minutes. I still can't believe with the mistakes we made on the floor and the bench, Alabama playing as best they can, and we still lost by only 2.
This team will always have a special place with me. They brought as much pleasure during the season as any team we have had and I go back to Doug Moe and York Laresse. Their talent, attitude, support for each other, etc. were what we all love about Carolina basketball.