Quick stuff (Auburn game)...

[gary-7]

....and this is important for everyone to read.

For real, I'm dog-tired but this needs to be said, so please pay attention:

- Start right here: If you haven't done so, please read my scouting report on Auburn in last night's analysis. What they can put on the floor right now is, quite simply, the most complete team in the country. They are better than KU, bama, Zags, dook,uk, name it. Please don't bother arguing, because if you do, you will be wrong. I'm not saying this because of my Auburn connections --- I was pulling for UNC as hard as I could --- just stating fact. Granted, they could very well lose tomorrow --- they are, after all, undisciplined (an achilles heel of Pearl teams) --- but make no mistake as to what they have.

- So... the reason I'm leading with this is to give y'all some perspective. 1) They are very good and played very well. 2) We did not. Thus, please spare me the "woe is us" nonsense. We aren't doomed, we're just not there yet.

With that out front, let's get into some analysis:

- Let me start by giving credit where due --- this was a generally well-officiated game. Refreshing to have a solid crew, so no complaints there.

- I told you that Broome was a stud, and he started out just being ridiculous (he ain't normally THAT good), but we adjusted and contained him in the second half. Trouble is, their other weapons came thru when they needed them.

Negatives:
- Hubert, please do NOT change your inbound scheme just because an opponent pressures. That was a coaching mistake.
- Ian, take your blinders off. When you get bogged down, look for your teammates
- Ball-movement in general --- long before things got desperate the ball was sticking to one side. REVERSE it!
- We've got to get JWash in a more aggressive and confident mindset on offense. He's too good of a shooter to be hesitant,, and misses are ensuing.
- We uncharacteristically missed too many FTs
- While we had some success driving off of it, we did not attack Pearl's 1-1-3 Zone as smoothly as we should have

Positives:
- Back to my scouting report --- We defended their Flex-cut action very well and only gave up one bucket off of it. And we often forced them into long 3 looks. Trouble is, they made a lot of those.
- We kept fighting amidst a lack-luster performance
- FINALLY!!! We saw some scramble!!! That's right, 43 reared its head and dadgummit, it worked!!! Three possessions of 43 resulting in a forced timeout, a stop, and a turnover. PLEASE Hubert... don't wait for desperation time. This team needs to be multiple!

Anyway, here's the deal: FLUSH this game and move on. In fact, in many ways tomorrow's game vs Mich St is the most important of this young season [edit] This is a challenge for us to get back on track that can set the tone --- good or bad --- for the rest of the season. Players and staff --- time to get after it with both barrels, no matter what sort of zebra crew we draw... 😡

 

[gkss]

....and this is important for everyone to read.

For real, I'm dog-tired but this needs to be said, so please pay attention:

- Start right here: If you haven't done so, please read my scouting report on Auburn in last night's analysis. What they can put on the floor right now is, quite simply, the most complete team in the country. They are better than KU, bama, Zags, dook,uk, name it. Please don't bother arguing, because if you do, you will be wrong. I'm not saying this because of my Auburn connections --- I was pulling for UNC as hard as I could --- just stating fact. Granted, they could very well lose tomorrow --- they are, after all, undisciplined (an achilles heel of Pearl teams) --- but make no mistake as to what they have.

- So... the reason I'm leading with this is to give y'all some perspective. 1) They are very good and played very well. 2) We did not. Thus, please spare me the "woe is us" nonsense. We aren't doomed, we're just not there yet.

With that out front, let's get into some analysis:

- Let me start by giving credit where due --- this was a generally well-officiated game. Refreshing to have a solid crew, so no complaints there.

- I told you that Broome was a stud, and he started out just being ridiculous (he ain't normally THAT good), but we adjusted and contained him in the second half. Trouble is, their other weapons came thru when they needed them.

Negatives:
- Hubert, please do NOT change your inbound scheme just because an opponent pressures. That was a coaching mistake.
- Ian, take your blinders off. When you get bogged down, look for your teammates
- Ball-movement in general --- long before things got desperate the ball was sticking to one side. REVERSE it!
- We've got to get JWash in a more aggressive and confident mindset on offense. He's too good of a shooter to be hesitant,, and misses are ensuing.
- We uncharacteristically missed too many FTs
- While we had some success driving off of it, we did not attack Pearl's 1-1-3 Zone as smoothly as we should have

Positives:
- Back to my scouting report --- We defended their Flex-cut action very well and only gave up one bucket off of it. And we often forced them into long 3 looks. Trouble is, they made a lot of those.
- We kept fighting amidst a lack-luster performance
- FINALLY!!! We saw some scramble!!! That's right, 43 reared its head and dadgummit, it worked!!! Three possessions of 43 resulting in a forced timeout, a stop, and a turnover. PLEASE Hubert... don't wait for desperation time. This team needs to be multiple!

Anyway, here's the deal: FLUSH this game and move on. In fact, in many ways tomorrow's game vs Mich St is the most important of this young season [edit] This is a challenge for us to get back on track that can set the tone --- good or bad --- for the rest of the season. Players and staff --- time to get after it with both barrels, no matter what sort of zebra crew we draw... 😡

Excellent analysis. It will be big to get JWash going to create some balance offensively. Thanks gary-7.

 

[trimbornunc86]

Cant argue with any of that, I think its fair all the way around. We were just simply outmatched by a better team

 

[CarolinaMagic]

Washington and Withers aren’t Carolina level starters. That’s the bottom line. The coaching staff gets an F- in the transfer portal this offseason. Absolutely pathetic. Love our great shooter Cade Tyson. 1 minute against Dayton and 2 minutes last night. Winning big is no longer important to this University. It’s only going to get worse. Recruiting is beyond pathetic right now.

 

[Quest4Seven]

Washington and Withers make guys like Ed Davis and Tony Bradley look like Joel Embiid and those were backups on championship teams. I still cant fathom how those 2 are the best big men we could put on the court

 

[Colejmann32]

Washington and Withers aren’t Carolina level starters. That’s the bottom line. The coaching staff gets an F- in the transfer portal this offseason. Absolutely pathetic. Love our great shooter Cade Tyson. 1 minute against Dayton and 2 minutes last night. Winning big is no longer important to this University. It’s only going to get worse. Recruiting is beyond pathetic right now.

Couldn't agree more on the portal comment. Absolute FUMBLE of a portal season we had. It truly is insane to me. Like you said, Washington and Withers simply cannot start right now, they just can't. It's so discouraging. Auburn is a GREAT team, but the Heels should be competing better than that. I would just love to see them put an entire game together, just one.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

This was arguably JWash's worst game of the season. I don't want to read too much into that, but I'm beginning to worry that he won't ever get where we hoped he'd be. He's a fine shooter and decent rebounder, but the questions we all had about him were strength and stamina. The answers so far on those 2 measures are not encouraging.

JWit continues to be inconsistent. Some games he looks good, some not. Is he better starting or coming off the bench? My sense is he's better starting, but might need a shorter leash.

OTOH, Lubin seems to be getting more comfortable. Is he good enough to be getting more minutes, and maybe even starting? I'm inclined to think so, but maybe his game has some shortcomings I'm missing.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Going into the MSU game, we have dropped to 293 on team height (based on minutes played, not roster average). With Seth becoming a star and with our freshmen getting better and better, it's easy to see why.

If we're going to play a lot of small ball, should we be committing to that? And should we be pressing more?

 

[tarheels0015]

Washington and Withers aren’t Carolina level starters. That’s the bottom line. The coaching staff gets an F- in the transfer portal this offseason. Absolutely pathetic. Love our great shooter Cade Tyson. 1 minute against Dayton and 2 minutes last night. Winning big is no longer important to this University. It’s only going to get worse. Recruiting is beyond pathetic right now.

And it's not getting better anytime soon

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

So far, Hubert has started the same 5 guys all 6 games. Would you change that? If so, how?

Elliot
RJ
Seth
JWit
JWash

How about starting Lubin at the 5 and moving JWash to the 4?

Or starting Drake at the 4 and Lubin at the 5?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

And it's not getting better anytime soon

Is it money, or is UNC less appealing to bigs these days?

To be fair, the difficulty getting top bigs didn't start with Hubert. It started when UNC was under the NCAA cloud. Now further complicated by NIL.

Hubert needs to break that slide. But how?

I worry that if Hubert can't show he knows what to do with bigs, it will only get harder to attract them.

 

[TarHeelFanJ]

Going into the MSU game, we have dropped to 293 on team height (based on minutes played, not roster average). With Seth becoming a star and with our freshmen getting better and better, it's easy to see why.

If we're going to play a lot of small ball, should we be committing to that? And should we be pressing more?

Where do you find the team height rankings data? Thanks in advance

 

[notashelbyfan]

It was obvious 3 mins into our game last night that we was in trouble.

 

[dtodd4475]

Broome was just toying with our bigs, did whatever he needed to, whenever he wanted. Same issue defensively with Jalen, he is too light in arse to hold his position in the paint, and moves poorly away from the paint laterally or in close outs. Offensively he looked shook as well, tentative and weak with the ball, passive even on his shooting stroke.

Lubin plays very hard, and will attack, but is an undersized limited skilled guy. At least he bangs and will "get after it". Withers is still wildly inconsistent even within a game.

If Cadeau leads the team in shot attempts, which he did, without even a 3, we are in trouble. Auburn will take that as well as Seth taking the 2nd most to an extent all day everyday. Holding RJ to only 11 looks was great for them, he is the difference maker with that fire power to stress a defense.

They forced us to take tough contested drives to the basket instead of 3's. Only 16 3balls (6-16) attempts to their 30 ( 11-30). Both teams shot it the same % from 3land, UNC a smidge higher, but they created 3ball looks on O, and forced contested drives on D.

Our core 8 is very unconventional this year. Big 3 all very small to man the 1 through 3 positions. Top 5 performers look to be 1 point, 3 2 guards, and a small forward. 2 being freshman still getting acclimated.

Terrible matchup with Auburn, hopefully a better go at it with Sparty, but they defend the perimeter hard as well, and have some size. Gotta get some non conference wins, today is a big game.

 

[Quest4Seven]

Is it money, or is UNC less appealing to bigs these days?

To be fair, the difficulty getting top bigs didn't start with Hubert. It started when UNC was under the NCAA cloud. Now further complicated by NIL.

Hubert needs to break that slide. But how?

I worry that if Hubert can't show he knows what to do with bigs, it will only get harder to attract them.

The bigs we have dont fit the system. We dont even need skilled bigs just long athletic ones that can catch lobs and agile enough to pick and roll from the top of the key. The guy from Rutgers and Ballo from Arizona would have thrived

 

[NathanFielder]

I didn't really learn anything from the Auburn game. Looked like a bad matchup on paper and it turned out that way. Auburn has a really good big guy. Maybe equally as important, they have a lot of perimeter size so against UNC's tiny backcourt, they can generally get a quality shot on every possession just because they're a lot bigger.

What I've found most interesting in the two big games (Kansas and Auburn) is that Hubert clearly trusts 8 guys right now. Maybe that's different if UNC isn't chasing both games, but right now the film says the rotation is 8 (starters plus Lubin, Powell, Jackson). All this talk about UNC being 25 players deep.... It's pretty clear right now who Hubert trusts. Lot of season left so hopefully Tyson and another big make their way into meaningful minutes in big games. But looks like the rotation from 9 and beyond has a lot of work to do.

As of now, this team needs to get to the FT line first and foremost IMO. That's the only equalizing way they can hang in a game where Auburn shot twice as many 3s while having a big guy who looked like Kareem Abdul Jabbar against UNC. And that was the case against Kansas and Dayton. The FT line got them back into the game. So it looks like if the guards can get to the FT line, this team will be able to stay competitive.

Also, this team cannot afford to get outshot 2 to 1 from 3. They aren't good enough to lose the analytical battle like that. They're not going to get enough offensive rebounds or second chance points to neutralize that disadvantage. For this team, decent 3PT looks need to be shot without hesitation.

It's early, but this has been a poor defensive team relative to the top 25 teams in the country. They don't force turnovers, they don't defend the 3 well from a percentage standpoint and opponents have a higher 3PT rate than UNC has.

There's going to be a lot of fair criticism of Washington and Withers. This team needs to figure out how to lessen their impact especially defensively. Probably starts with the guards putting much more pressure on the basketball at all times.

Hubert's got his work cut of for him working with this big man rotation. Early returns is Hubert can clearly develop guards. RJ and Seth improved leaps and bounds during their careers. So far, none of the big guys look different to me.

 

[gauchoheel]

Washington and Withers make guys like Ed Davis and Tony Bradley look like Joel Embiid and those were backups on championship teams. I still cant fathom how those 2 are the best big men we could put on the court

Yeah that's really the bottom line. There's very little chance of being a great team this year with this front court. Just too bad.

And Jackson needs to pass the ball. That time he left Drake open in the corner was just galling.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Where do you find the team height rankings data? Thanks in advance

Pomeroy. It's behind his paywall but I don't think I'll be breaking fair use laws if I report these excerpts.

National average = 77.2"
UNC = 76.5" (rank = 293 and shortest in the ACC)
Duke = 79.6" (rank = 1)
FSU = 79.5" (rank = 2)
NC State = 76.8" (rank = 255 and 2nd shortest in the ACC)

Stanford, UVa, Pitt, SMU, and Louisville are all ranked in the top 50.

The shortest team in the nation is Navy at 74.7". Not too surprising. Army is 3rd shortest.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I didn't really learn anything from the Auburn game. Looked like a bad matchup on paper and it turned out that way. Auburn has a really good big guy. Maybe equally as important, they have a lot of perimeter size so against UNC's tiny backcourt, they can generally get a quality shot on every possession just because they're a lot bigger.

What I've found most interesting in the two big games (Kansas and Auburn) is that Hubert clearly trusts 8 guys right now. Maybe that's different if UNC isn't chasing both games, but right now the film says the rotation is 8 (starters plus Lubin, Powell, Jackson). All this talk about UNC being 25 players deep.... It's pretty clear right now who Hubert trusts. Lot of season left so hopefully Tyson and another big make their way into meaningful minutes in big games. But looks like the rotation from 9 and beyond has a lot of work to do.

As of now, this team needs to get to the FT line first and foremost IMO. That's the only equalizing way they can hang in a game where Auburn shot twice as many 3s while having a big guy who looked like Kareem Abdul Jabbar against UNC. And that was the case against Kansas and Dayton. The FT line got them back into the game. So it looks like if the guards can get to the FT line, this team will be able to stay competitive.

Also, this team cannot afford to get outshot 2 to 1 from 3. They aren't good enough to lose the analytical battle like that. They're not going to get enough offensive rebounds or second chance points to neutralize that disadvantage. For this team, decent 3PT looks need to be shot without hesitation.

It's early, but this has been a poor defensive team relative to the top 25 teams in the country. They don't force turnovers, they don't defend the 3 well from a percentage standpoint and opponents have a higher 3PT rate than UNC has.

There's going to be a lot of fair criticism of Washington and Withers. This team needs to figure out how to lessen their impact especially defensively. Probably starts with the guards putting much more pressure on the basketball at all times.

Hubert's got his work cut of for him working with this big man rotation. Early returns is Hubert can clearly develop guards. RJ and Seth improved leaps and bounds during their careers. So far, none of the big guys look different to me.

Strong points. Thanks.

 

[39 Feet Above Sea Level]

Excellent analysis, Gary. Spot on for sure.
I’m thinking about three missed gimme bunnies (+6) from Jwash, Jwit, and Lubin.
Some missed fts by good ft shooters (+3 or +4?) Cade, Seth, Elliot)
So……roughly ten points .
RJ, only one free throw?
We might have been right in it, if Auburn didn’t hit the three quick threes immediately into the second half.
Playing from behind all night vs Auburn is a very daunting task.
We need to stay on task from the tip to beat Sparty!

 

[notashelbyfan]

The refs were not great in this game either, RJ, EC and Trimble was hammered multiple time late and there was no call. This game was just as physical as the Dayton game and we only took 19 free throws as opposed to 34.

 

[big_deez]

Strong points. Thanks.

Nice reply. I agree with you, especially on the defensive side. Im stating the obvious here but this UNC team simply HAS to outscore opponents as they are unable to get stops. They have some great guard play (EC is a machine, very impressive) but as we know, the front court is a big problem. Furthermore, Cade struggling is a really big issue right now, most didn't see that coming... It sucks watching them lose, but at times, this team is really fun to watch.

 

[montana_heel]

I think it's pretty simple.

If you are gonna have a short backcourt, you better have a very good front court. Think we are gonna be good but not national championship good unless Withers and Washington really turn things around. Not sure how big of a jump Zayden would have made but he sure hurt himself not being on this team.

Our starting guards are not great defenders but have shown that they could be in small bursts.

Drake really picks up the whole team defensively when in but is not a great solution at the 4 due to height.