Quick stuff (MIami game 2)...

[ChiShankCity]

My recollection of bench usage in the Roy era boils down to 2 main points:

1. He played a lot of people a lot of minutes early in the season.

2. He played his bench a good bit in the first half, even later in the season.

I really liked both of those strategies, even though the first one might occasionally cost us a game. They tended to set us up for success during crunch time.

Do we have Marvin Williams, Ed Davis, or Tony Bradley coming off our bench this year? Yea, I'll live with losing a regular season game with those 3 dudes playing 25+ minutes, lol. I probably wouldn't have the same reaction if we lost and Washington, Withers, and Wojcik logged 20 minutes.

The 2005, 2009, and 2017 teams destroys this current team in terms of talent. Yet, Raymond Felton played 33 minutes or more in every NCAA tournament game in 2005 2nd round forward. McCants played over 30 minutes in every competitive game that tournament. Sean May played over 30 minutes in each competitive game aside from a game he was in foul trouble. And we had the #2 overall pick on the bench and they still logged those minutes.

The 2017 team... Joel Berry and Justin Jackson consistently 33-38 minutes. And that bench had Tony Bradley and Luke Maye so of course the starting bigs could play less. Hell, even that dominant 2009 team... The only game they were threatened against LSU, Ellington played 37, Hansbrough played 34, Green played 32, Lawson played 31 on a bum ankle.

If you think Withers, Washington, and Wojcik are good enough to be playing 20 minutes/game, then that's one thing. I don't think they're good enough, or not nearly as good as the starters. You could argue that Marvin Williams was better than Jawad Williams. You could argue that Ed Davis was better than Deon Thompson (Davis outplayed Thompson in the LSU game 25-17 in minutes). And Tony Bradley vs Hicks/Meeks probably was probably close.

I don't. Not for the totality of the season. But hopefully, they're good enough to contribute positively when their numbers are called on in March. I think Hubert's handled the minutes pretty well. I probably would've played Washington a little more, but hard to play guys for a lot of minutes when they're not consistently dependable. I don't always agree with the lineups he throws out there. To me, this bench isn't good enough to throw out there with big volume minutes. That would be coaching malpractice for this team IMO.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Not one person said Pax, Withers, and JWash should play 20 minutes per game. That is an arbitrary number and has no bearing on the discussion. Hubs should continue to play peeps in situations as needed and continue to trust peeps to step in in a pinch or give our starters some rest! Our bench is deep but that does not mean every person should play every game and it doesn't mean they should all get a set number of minutes. The brilliance of what we have seen is all of these guys have stepped up and contributed and have been trusted to be a positive for the team. Now we know we can count on them and they know they are trusted in case we really need to extend minutes for one of them in a pinch! Ankles, fouls, fatigue happen and now we are prepared! We have 9.5 peeps we can trust and that means a lot if you have to play multiple games in a row!

 

[ChiShankCity]

Not one person said Pax, Withers, and JWash should play 20 minutes per game. That is an arbitrary number and has no bearing on the discussion. Hubs should continue to play peeps in situations as needed and continue to trust peeps to step in in a pinch or give our starters some rest! Our bench is deep but that does not mean every person should play every game and it doesn't mean they should all get a set number of minutes. The brilliance of what we have seen is all of these guys have stepped up and contributed and have been trusted to be a positive for the team. Now we know we can count on them and they know they are trusted in case we really need to extend minutes for one of them in a pinch! Ankles, fouls, fatigue happen and now we are prepared! We have 9.5 peeps we can trust and that means a lot if you have to play multiple games in a row!

Eh, people have mentioned a certain number of minutes for everyone. I think WWJD even made a chart of this during the offseason because it was such a hot topic coming into the season. But yes, the 20 minutes was an arbitrary number I threw out. But 20, I think 25 minutes has been thrown out too. So people have said it.

You and I agree that Hubert should do it more situationally than play the bench to just play the bench. We differ in how deep we think UNC is. I've said over and over that this is a pretty strict 8 man rotation and I would only play Wojcik or High in extreme circumstances (foul trouble, subbing out a starter 30 seconds before the media TO window to steal an extra minute of rest, etc).

I disagree that we can count on all of the bench players. In fact, I don't think you can count on any of them. That's what makes them role players. But given the opportunity, Trimble, Withers, and Washington are capable of playing well against good teams.

We probably differ in our definition of deep. I don't really think of this team as deep. I think we're kind of screwed if any of our top 6 gets hurt. Deep teams can absorb more than that IMO.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

The chart was beginning of the season but you're right there. BTW: Fire Hubs was also said, so.... Role players are people you can count on they just aren't stars/starters. By count on, I mean we can put them in for a few minutes and trust they will play their assigned roles for a few minutes at a time. I do actually agree that High and Okonkwo are not ready for more than that. BUT I strongly believe that if we need them, Pax. JWit, JWash, and Trimble can be counted on for as long as we need them. 9 peeps who can contribute is dadgum deep. Name the team that will not suffer if a starter goes down for good!!!

 

[ChiShankCity]

The chart was beginning of the season but you're right there. BTW: Fire Hubs was also said, so.... Role players are people you can count on they just aren't stars/starters. By count on, I mean we can put them in for a few minutes and trust they will play their assigned roles for a few minutes at a time. I do actually agree that High and Okonkwo are not ready for more than that. BUT I strongly believe that if we need them, Pax. JWit, JWash, and Trimble can be counted on for as long as we need them. 9 peeps who can contribute is dadgum deep. Name the team that will not suffer if a starter goes down for good!!!

Certainly fair. Although I think UConn more than held their own when Castle and Clingan went down for 5 or so games.

I guess we'll see. Will be a new experience for the bench. I think Wojcik played like 30 seconds of an NCAA tournament game his sophomore year at Loyola (IL). So zero NCAA Tournament experience off the bench.

Only bringing that up since I know experience will be brought up as an asset for this team in March. The reality is this will be the first NCAA Tournament playing experience for Cadeau, Ingram, and the entire bench.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Do we have Marvin Williams, Ed Davis, or Tony Bradley coming off our bench this year? Yea, I'll live with losing a regular season game with those 3 dudes playing 25+ minutes, lol. I probably wouldn't have the same reaction if we lost and Washington, Withers, and Wojcik logged 20 minutes.

The 2005, 2009, and 2017 teams destroys this current team in terms of talent. Yet, Raymond Felton played 33 minutes or more in every NCAA tournament game in 2005 2nd round forward. McCants played over 30 minutes in every competitive game that tournament. Sean May played over 30 minutes in each competitive game aside from a game he was in foul trouble. And we had the #2 overall pick on the bench and they still logged those minutes.

The 2017 team... Joel Berry and Justin Jackson consistently 33-38 minutes. And that bench had Tony Bradley and Luke Maye so of course the starting bigs could play less. Hell, even that dominant 2009 team... The only game they were threatened against LSU, Ellington played 37, Hansbrough played 34, Green played 32, Lawson played 31 on a bum ankle.

You've demonstrated is that you may need to go Iron Man down the stretch or in some critical games. I agree.

What I and some others - and Roy's pattern - suggest is don't do that all the time.

You always start with your best guys and try to knock them on their heels. But if you can, you rest your guys early so they can still deliver late in the game.

I don't know about you, but if I need RJ to play 20 minutes in the 2nd half, I'd rather him not be worn out from playing 20 minutes in the 1st half.

 

[ChiShankCity]

You've demonstrated is that you may need to go Iron Man down the stretch or in some critical games. I agree.

What I and some others - and Roy's pattern - suggest is don't do that all the time.

You always start with your best guys and try to knock them on their heels. But if you can, you rest your guys early so they can still deliver late in the game.

I don't know about you, but if I need RJ to play 20 minutes in the 2nd half, I'd rather him not be worn out from playing 20 minutes in the 1st half.

I get what you're saying. But for me, this isn't a minute thing. It's more how comfortable are you with playing an inconsistent bench for more minutes in single-elimination games. Sure, I would rather RJ or Ingram be more fresh in a close game late. But I also don't know how comfortable I'd be rolling out a Cadeau/Trimble backcourt.

This stat is dated (it's from Feb 16), but up until that point in ACC games, we averaged only 0.96 points-per-possession when Cadeau was on the floor without RJ. Any lineup that had RJ in it in ACC play averaged 1.19 points-per-possession. That's a seismic difference. And I doubt that the RJ on-the-floor numbers fell at all after he went for 40+ against Miami.

So all of the minutes analysis is great. I'm asking what's the optimal solution for sitting RJ? Do people think RJ plays a ton of minutes because Hubert just wants to? Maybe it's because this team has been offensively dependent on RJ being on the floor this season. He isn't going to win NPOY, but RJ might be the most valuable player to his team in the country. This team's offense dies without him on the floor.

For me, it's really risky to sit him for longer stretches when the games mean everything.

And to be perfectly honest, Cadeau and RJ should both be playing heavy heavy minutes IMO. The lineup data shows that. RJ is much more efficient with Cadeau. UNC doesn't have a good offense without RJ. I wouldn't be opposed if Cadeau and RJ each played 35 minutes/game in March.

 

[dtodd4475]

I get what you're saying. But for me, this isn't a minute thing. It's more how comfortable are you with playing an inconsistent bench for more minutes in single-elimination games. Sure, I would rather RJ or Ingram be more fresh in a close game late. But I also don't know how comfortable I'd be rolling out a Cadeau/Trimble backcourt.

This stat is dated (it's from Feb 16), but up until that point in ACC games, we averaged only 0.96 points-per-possession when Cadeau was on the floor without RJ. Any lineup that had RJ in it in ACC play averaged 1.19 points-per-possession. That's a seismic difference. And I doubt that the RJ on-the-floor numbers fell at all after he went for 40+ against Miami.

So all of the minutes analysis is great. I'm asking what's the optimal solution for sitting RJ? Do people think RJ plays a ton of minutes because Hubert just wants to? Maybe it's because this team has been offensively dependent on RJ being on the floor this season. He isn't going to win NPOY, but RJ might be the most valuable player to his team in the country. This team's offense dies without him on the floor.

For me, it's really risky to sit him for longer stretches when the games mean everything.

And to be perfectly honest, Cadeau and RJ should both be playing heavy heavy minutes IMO. The lineup data shows that. RJ is much more efficient with Cadeau. UNC doesn't have a good offense without RJ. I wouldn't be opposed if Cadeau and RJ each played 35 minutes/game in March.

Rj and Caleb at Zona numbers are eerily similar. Caleb has been a bit more efficient while RJ has been a bit more of a volume shooter. RJ better at 3's, Caleb better at 2's. Evens out eerily same production, crazy similar years, hence they are 2 of the 3 leaders for the Jerry West Award for national 2 guard with Johnell Davis. I might be biased, but I'm RJ mainly for the load he had to carry. And he had to carry it in my opinion.

RJ is a volume shooter for us, and should be. I really like how Hubert has used the bench, our 3 rotational guys have played plenty with what they bring to the table to step in situationally. Wojcik enough for emergency spot minutes, if needed.

Stay healthy fellas.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I think we've covered the PT concerns rather well. As my last comment (for now) I'd like to throw out a boxing analogy.

To me, RJ is the guy we are most likely to need in end-game situations. He's also the guy most likely to have played Iron Man minutes. He's also the guy who has probably taken the most shots. And he's almost certainly the guy who has picked himself up off the floor the most.

I don't want RJ to have punched himself out or to be hobbled by a barrage of body blowe beyond his ability to absorb them.

We know RJ will give it his all. I just want some gas left in his tank. Oops, sorry for the mixed metaphor.

 

[DSouthr]

I get what you're saying. But for me, this isn't a minute thing. It's more how comfortable are you with playing an inconsistent bench for more minutes in single-elimination games. Sure, I would rather RJ or Ingram be more fresh in a close game late. But I also don't know how comfortable I'd be rolling out a Cadeau/Trimble backcourt.

This stat is dated (it's from Feb 16), but up until that point in ACC games, we averaged only 0.96 points-per-possession when Cadeau was on the floor without RJ. Any lineup that had RJ in it in ACC play averaged 1.19 points-per-possession. That's a seismic difference. And I doubt that the RJ on-the-floor numbers fell at all after he went for 40+ against Miami.

So all of the minutes analysis is great. I'm asking what's the optimal solution for sitting RJ? Do people think RJ plays a ton of minutes because Hubert just wants to? Maybe it's because this team has been offensively dependent on RJ being on the floor this season. He isn't going to win NPOY, but RJ might be the most valuable player to his team in the country. This team's offense dies without him on the floor.

For me, it's really risky to sit him for longer stretches when the games mean everything.

And to be perfectly honest, Cadeau and RJ should both be playing heavy heavy minutes IMO. The lineup data shows that. RJ is much more efficient with Cadeau. UNC doesn't have a good offense without RJ. I wouldn't be opposed if Cadeau and RJ each played 35 minutes/game in March.

Sure, I would rather RJ or Ingram be more fresh in a close game late.

^ You "SAY" this but then you dismiss it and advocate for the very thing that prevents these guys from being the more fresh leg team. Clearly you want "Iron Man" ball, clearly you want "hero ball", clearly you were not paying attention the last 2 seasons. Your preferred "Iron man" ball got us back to back terrible regular seasons. And now, NOT, let me repeat NOT playing that "Iron Man" ball we lead the ACC with 3 games left.

Do you actually believe the way we had to play vs Miami is what you want this team to play like, RJ having to go off for 40+ was NOT a good thing for this team, glad we got the win but this team can not just focus on RJ. Focus on a single player is not what got us to this point this late in the season and it will end our season early if we do not correct it. We don't need 4 guys standing around watching what RJ does, we need 5 guys on the court playing together and we need them to have the fresher legs for deep in to games as well as post season when the turn around games come so quickly.

 

[dtodd4475]

^ You "SAY" this but then you dismiss it and advocate for the very thing that prevents these guys from being the more fresh leg team. Clearly you want "Iron Man" ball, clearly you want "hero ball", clearly you were not paying attention the last 2 seasons. Your preferred "Iron man" ball got us back to back terrible regular seasons. And now, NOT, let me repeat NOT playing that "Iron Man" ball we lead the ACC with 3 games left.

Do you actually believe the way we had to play vs Miami is what you want this team to play like, RJ having to go off for 40+ was NOT a good thing for this team, glad we got the win but this team can not just focus on RJ. Focus on a single player is not what got us to this point this late in the season and it will end our season early if we do not correct it. We don't need 4 guys standing around watching what RJ does, we need 5 guys on the court playing together and we need them to have the fresher legs for deep in to games as well as post season when the turn around games come so quickly.

Here's the thing for me. RJ has played the same minutes this year. He averaged 35.0 minutes a game last year, and 34.9 this year. Heck, he played 33.9 the year before. (Caleb was 35.8 last year, and 34.0 the year before)

I just don't see that RJ's usage has been less, thus better results, it has been the same. We have consistently played big minutes for RJ, Ingram, Cormac, and Mando with Cadeau and Trimble splitting the 40 minutes about 60/40, Cadeau is increasing as the year progresses.

Washington about 8, Withers about 8-12 if foul issues do not dictate otherwise. It's been really consistent in my eyes. I just don't see the vast different usage that you have this season now starting to change.

 

[ChiShankCity]

Here's the thing for me. RJ has played the same minutes this year. He averaged 35.0 minutes a game last year, and 34.9 this year. Heck, he played 33.9 the year before. (Caleb was 35.8 last year, and 34.0 the year before)

I just don't see that RJ's usage has been less, thus better results, it has been the same. We have consistently played big minutes for RJ, Ingram, Cormac, and Mando with Cadeau and Trimble splitting the 40 minutes about 60/40, Cadeau is increasing as the year progresses.

Washington about 8, Withers about 8-12 if foul issues do not dictate otherwise. It's been really consistent in my eyes. I just don't see the vast different usage that you have this season now starting to change.

I know people will say that I want my best players playing 40 minutes per game every season. Lol, that’s not true for me.

But for this specific team, RJ doesn’t have a quality backup. Our team gets drastically less efficient with a Cadeau/Trimble backcourt. And UNC performs like a 15 win team with Wojcik on the floor. So since we don’t have a quality backup for RJ, I think he has to play major minutes. This doesn’t mean that RJ playing like he did against Miami is sustainable. I think I’ve been the leader in saying that we need multiple high volume good 3pt shooters forever now.

My RJ minutes stance is more based on UNC not really having a capable backup for the 2 guard spot. Wojcik going -6 in 2 minutes during the tournament could cost us the season. And I know the counter will be a fresh RJ at the end of the game can win us a game too. I just haven’t seen any evidence that this team can survive or break even without RJ.

If we had Marvin Williams, Ed Davis, Tony Bradley… even Kenny Williams or Melvin Scott (guard who can make a 3), I would be extremely critical of RJ playing 37+ consistently in every regular season game. We have Trimble who’s had a productive season. He also hasn’t made a 3 since January 20. The firepower off the bench that Roy had isn’t on this team. So I think we’re better off with RJ playing heavy minutes.

Cadeau too. He should be playing 30+ minutes every game.

 

[Heelicious]

Trimble can be an effective backup in the game for RJ and give RJ 5-7 minutes of rest if needed. Wojcik cannot. Seth can play and look to drive, pass, etc and not ever need to take a 3. If he doesn’t take or make another 3 all year who cares - if he puts pressure on the d by driving, finding scorers in the paint - or kicking out to cormac or Ingram - who can make enough open 3s even when rj is not on the floor.

Trimble is at least as good an offensive player as leaky or Jackie Manuel. Nobody ever said we HAD to have 3s from them on the wing.

 

[ChiShankCity]

Trimble can be an effective backup in the game for RJ and give RJ 5-7 minutes of rest if needed. Wojcik cannot. Seth can play and look to drive, pass, etc and not ever need to take a 3. If he doesn’t take or make another 3 all year who cares - if he puts pressure on the d by driving, finding scorers in the paint - or kicking out to cormac or Ingram - who can make enough open 3s even when rj is not on the floor.

Trimble is at least as good an offensive player as leaky or Jackie Manuel. Nobody ever said we HAD to have 3s from them on the wing.

I don’t have as much faith in the offense with Cadeau and Seth as you do. That’s because the lineup numbers have shown that our offense is pretty dependent on RJ. March games are elimination games. So the regular season numbers only mean so much. So hopefully you’re right. Personally, I wouldn’t be comfortable with RJ sitting for 7 minutes in a close game. Unless Cormac becomes a consistent shooter in March. Something he really hasn’t been all season.

And the Jackie Manuel comparison is irrelevant. He didn’t have to do anything offensively because that team had maybe 5 guys who can go for 20+ any night. This team isn’t in the same universe as that team was offensively.

And I’m probably in the minority but I don’t really view Seth as a guard. I see him more as a wing. I honestly wish we played more lineups with Cadeau, RJ, Seth together just to see what they could do. Might have been a disaster but I was intrigued by that combination.