Record Prediction Thread for 2020

[uncboy10]

How many games do you think the Heels will will win in 2020? Which games concern you the most?

For me, the UCF game is huge. If we don't win that one then we are likely going to start out 0-2. But a win against UCF could provide some positive momentum to start the year. 1-1 with a loss to a top ten Auburn team wouldn't be a bad start at all. IF we find a way to somehow start the year 2-0 then the narrative will completely change. People will be talking about us as a dark horse playoff contender. Which could give us another big boost in recruiting.

Va Tech seems to give us problems every year, so I'd like to see us deliver them a beat down.

Beating Miami every year is crucial. With all of the talent in the Miami area, we don't need them to start building any momentum with their program.

I think we're likely looking at 9-3 or 10-2 with an ACCCG berth. I'll go with 10-2 and a solid bowl win to get us to 11 wins.

 

[TarHeelMark]

I'm thinking 9-3 (6-2) regular season. Hopefully that wins the coastal, but we're not gonna beat Clemson in ACCCG this season (... 2021, maybe?).
Bowl win gets us to 10.

 

[tarheel0910]

I'm thinking 9-3 (6-2) regular season. Hopefully that wins the coastal, but we're not gonna beat Clemson in ACCCG this season (... 2021, maybe?).
Bowl win gets us to 10.

That's what I was thinking I think we will lose to AU, UVA and drop one more we shouldn't (UM maybe?). I could see us getting 10 in the regular season though. Hard to predict what will happen in a bowl without knowing who we play.

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

I think we win one of Auburn/UCF. Get both early in the year and we return a good bit. We can hang with Auburn. They lost a lot from their front seven and OL.

We get VaTech at home. But I can see us losing to either Pitt or Miami. Miami might be tougher with a QB. Pitt has some guys coming back that would've been drafted. Then we'll probably lose one we shouldn't.

So, yeah, either 10-2 or 9-3. I'll go with 9-3. And hopefully back in the ACCCG which is crazy to think about considering where we were a few years ago.

Clemson will win it all barring a catastrophe. That team is loaded. Their DL is going to be a handful. SEC takes a step back - weak QB class. Buckeyes had their chance.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

8-4 in regular season. Based on our schedule and our roster, we should do better than that (William Hill has our W/L O/U at 8.5), but I've seen way too many heartbreaks to think everything will go smoothly this season.

I won't be convinced we will ever beat Fuente until it happens, and we'll definitely lose to Auburn.

 

[GoNtheDistance]

9

 

[uncboy10]

Not a ton of deviation here. Seems like most people have us between 9 and 11 wins.

If we can find a way to overachieve this year then I think it will greatly accelerate us towards achieving Mack's goals. Just look at how Mack is recruiting coming off of a 7-6 season... Now imagine next year's class if we win 10 or 11 games this year.

 

[uncboy10]

8-4 in regular season. Based on our schedule and our roster, we should do better than that (William Hill has our W/L O/U at 8.5), but I've seen way too many heartbreaks to think everything will go smoothly this season.

I won't be convinced we will ever beat Fuente until it happens, and we'll definitely lose to Auburn.

I'd give us a 10-15% chance against Auburn. Even if only because we always play SEC teams close early in the year. We really should have beaten both LSU and UGA when we played them in Atlanta.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

I'd give us a 10-15% chance against Auburn. Even if only because we always play SEC teams close early in the year. We really should have beaten both LSU and UGA when we played them in Atlanta.

Only problem is that was a mediocre 7-5 UGA team before Kirby had gotten his army of stud recruits on campus.

I would say "besides, those games are meaningless cuz it's different teams now" but then I'd be hypocritical since I'm basing my subpar win total prediction on past disappointment

 

[TarHeelNation11]

It's just, if you look at the history of UNC Football, it's one missed opportunity after another just as things are going well. So I just expect this season to be a step back since so much is going right for us right now.

 

[uncboy10]

It's just, if you look at the history of UNC Football, it's one missed opportunity after another just as things are going well. So I just expect this season to be a step back since so much is going right for us right now.

Yep that's the other side of that coin. But, arguably the biggest missed opportunity we've ever had was losing Mack to Texas. Now we've got him back and the ceiling is the roof.

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

Auburn lost half their starters on defense, with their DL taking the biggest hit, and their OL is almost completely devoid of SEC experience. Our skill guys can play with anyone and I'll take Howell over Nix. We get them early. I'm hoping, after last season, this team won't let that SEC logo beat them. Definitely a winnable game. The spread is less than a TD.

We need to find a way to win either that one or the other one against UCF. And, really, we should be able to overwhelm UCF with talent. I would've penciled that one in as a win had we not lost at home last year to AppSt.

Win one of those, beat VaTech, and win the division. I feel like those are good/reasonable goals.

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

It's just, if you look at the history of UNC Football, it's one missed opportunity after another just as things are going well. So I just expect this season to be a step back since so much is going right for us right now.

Last year was frustrating because we played with less than ideal depth for the better part of the season. And by less than ideal, I mean almost none lol. At the same time, we we were only projected to win 4-5 games. Hoping to see a little more this year.

 

[matt 1976]

8-4 regular season. Win a mid-tier bowl game and finish the season 9-4. If that happens, we will continue to roll on the recruiting trail and the anticipation the 2021 season will be off the charts.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

I'd be fine with 8-4, depending on who those wins are against. Beating Auburn or UCF would be great, and beating the former would really let us flex on the national stage and prove to recruits we have a high ceiling. But to maintain our regional uptick in recruiting and to keep NC locked down, we have to beat:

- Duke
- NC State

We should beat:

- UVa

I really hope we beat:

- VT

We have not beat a Fuente-led Hokies team yet. They are 4-0 against us since he took over. That sucks. And Vegas odds have VT as a joint favorite with us to win the division. Based on recruiting, Fuente's VT is on the rope. We need to hit them with a death knell this season and beat them. We get them in Chapel Hill. We need to take advantage.

Anyway, if we beat those four opponents above, that's a humongous leap toward potentially winning the division but also towards a decent bowl game (when you consider that James Madison and UConn are most likely Ws you can write in pen. That's already six wins right there.

 

[uncboy10]

I'd be fine with 8-4, depending on who those wins are against. Beating Auburn or UCF would be great, and beating the former would really let us flex on the national stage and prove to recruits we have a high ceiling. But to maintain our regional uptick in recruiting and to keep NC locked down, we have to beat:

- Duke
- NC State

We should beat:

- UVa

I really hope we beat:

- VT

We have not beat a Fuente-led Hokies team yet. They are 4-0 against us since he took over. That sucks. And Vegas odds have VT as a joint favorite with us to win the division. Based on recruiting, Fuente's VT is on the rope. We need to hit them with a death knell this season and beat them. We get them in Chapel Hill. We need to take advantage.

Anyway, if we beat those four opponents above, that's a humongous leap toward potentially winning the division but also towards a decent bowl game (when you consider that James Madison and UConn are most likely Ws you can write in pen. That's already six wins right there.

I agree about beating Va Tech for the same reason that I think beating Miami is crucial. Those are programs that have the potential to give us problems. Put them in their place and keep them there so we can establish dominance in the coastal and make the ACCCG consistently.

IMO we're better than every team on the schedule except for Auburn. Maybe I'm just overlooking someone, but I think on paper we should have a better than 50% chance of beating every team but them. Obviously that doesn't mean you're going to win every game you're favored in, but I honestly will be disappointed with any loss that isn't to Auburn. I'll be disappointed if we lose them too, but just because it's such a huge opportunity. I'm notoriously over-optimistic about Carolina football, but I've got a funny feeling about that one. We're long overdue for another Connor Barth moment.

I think Mack is telling these guys that they can set themselves up to play Clemson for a playoff spot. And I think the guys in the locker room are going to believe it. That makes them dangerous if they can stay focused and catch a few breaks.

The offense should be scary good if we sort out some of the bonehead play calling. We can outscore anyone on the schedule if the defense has a decent day.

 

[Archer2]

I agree about beating Va Tech for the same reason that I think beating Miami is crucial. Those are programs that have the potential to give us problems. Put them in their place and keep them there so we can establish dominance in the coastal and make the ACCCG consistently.

IMO we're better than every team on the schedule except for Auburn. Maybe I'm just overlooking someone, but I think on paper we should have a better than 50% chance of beating every team but them. Obviously that doesn't mean you're going to win every game you're favored in, but I honestly will be disappointed with any loss that isn't to Auburn. I'll be disappointed if we lose them too, but just because it's such a huge opportunity. I'm notoriously over-optimistic about Carolina football, but I've got a funny feeling about that one. We're long overdue for another Connor Barth moment.

I think Mack is telling these guys that they can set themselves up to play Clemson for a playoff spot. And I think the guys in the locker room are going to believe it. That makes them dangerous if they can stay focused and catch a few breaks.

The offense should be scary good if we sort out some of the bonehead play calling. We can outscore anyone on the schedule if the defense has a decent day.

Love your optimism buddy.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

IMO we're better than every team on the schedule except for Auburn. Maybe I'm just overlooking someone, but I think on paper we should have a better than 50% chance of beating every team but them.

I agree (although it's close with VT and with UCF, who's way better than some of our fans are giving credit), but the problem still is our depth.

Our best vs. other teams' best, yes your analysis is spot on. But if we suffer injuries to the DL (which has already started with KBJ), our defense is going to take a major step back, just like it did last year when our secondary started getting depleted. We're going to need some injury luck this year in the defensive front 7 to maximize our potential.

 

[uncboy10]

I agree (although it's close with VT and with UCF, who's way better than some of our fans are giving credit), but the problem still is our depth.

Our best vs. other teams' best, yes your analysis is spot on. But if we suffer injuries to the DL (which has already started with KBJ), our defense is going to take a major step back, just like it did last year when our secondary started getting depleted. We're going to need some injury luck this year in the defensive front 7 to maximize our potential.

Good point. We've got to hope guys stay healthy, and also hope that some of the young guys are ready to contribute ASAP. The first two games could be a slugfest. We need to somehow make it through those games without major injuries so that we're healthy for conference play.

Another thing that can help is if the offense comes out of the gates firing on all cylinders. If you have an early lead of more than a TD, then you can afford to rotate guys more on the defensive front since every defensive possession isn't do or die.

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

We're going to miss Crawford and Strowbridge.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

We're going to miss Crawford and Strowbridge.

Big time. Look, I'm all for optimism. I'm the sucker that works himself up into thinking we're going to win every game by the time kickoff rolls around.

But we need to pump the brakes a bit on our expectations unless the offense can just carry us. Our defense is going to be strong on the backend, but it might not manifest in actual results because our defensive front 7 (especially our DTs), could struggle due to lack of quality. The defensive line is the heart and soul of an effective defense. SEC defenses prove it year after year.

We shall see. I'm excited for the possibilities of this season. 10-2 may be a bridge too far.

 

[uncboy10]

Big time. Look, I'm all for optimism. I'm the sucker that works himself up into thinking we're going to win every game by the time kickoff rolls around.

But we need to pump the brakes a bit on our expectations unless the offense can just carry us. Our defense is going to be strong on the backend, but it might not manifest in actual results because our defensive front 7 (especially our DTs), could struggle due to lack of quality. The defensive line is the heart and soul of an effective defense. SEC defenses prove it year after year.

We shall see. I'm excited for the possibilities of this season. 10-2 may be a bridge too far.

I think it's a given that the offense is going to have to carry this team at times. Which is why I think the offensive line will be almost as important as the d line. If the pass pro is solid and they can open up holes for the running game, then nobody on the schedule is going to be able to stop this offense. We're loaded at receiver and RB, with one of the best QB's in the country.

All that being said, Bateman made some incredible halftime adjustments last year. I'm confident that he can put a solid defense on the field, so long as we don't have major injury issues.

 

[uncboy10]

Well stated. Barring serious injury issues, our offense will shine and our defense should be improved. I have to say that Bateman was all I hoped for and more. He will be getting a shot of talent and athleticism that was needed. And he’s already built a good defensive foundation. I expect improvement this year, as does Bateman, as we insert more talented players into his scheme. I can’t help but think the 20/21 classes will provide that. Can’t wait to see where RaRa fits in.


I remember some of our defenses in the past and wonder what would happen if we paired that with a wide open offense. Coming to your neighborhood soon.

Bateman was extremely impressive despite the insane level of injuries that we had to deal with. If we can stay relatively healthy then I also expect the defense to take major strides forward.

One long term benefit to not having a ton of depth is that the talented young guys coming in this year and with the 2021 class are going to play a lot as freshman. In another year or two we're going to have a ton of high level talent on defense that also has experience.

We really shouldn't have lost to App St or Wake last year. If we went 9-4 last year instead of 7-6 then I think people would be even more optimistic. And we could have won against Va Tech, UVA and Pitt as well if those games had gone slightly different. I only point that out because I think we actually had enough talent to win 9 or 10 games last year, and I think this team will be better.

 

[Archer2]

Bateman was extremely impressive despite the insane level of injuries that we had to deal with. If we can stay relatively healthy then I also expect the defense to take major strides forward.

One long term benefit to not having a ton of depth is that the talented young guys coming in this year and with the 2021 class are going to play a lot as freshman. In another year or two we're going to have a ton of high level talent on defense that also has experience.

We really shouldn't have lost to App St or Wake last year. If we went 9-4 last year instead of 7-6 then I think people would be even more optimistic. And we could have won against Va Tech, UVA and Pitt as well if those games had gone slightly different. I only point that out because I think we actually had enough talent to win 9 or 10 games last year, and I think this team will be better.

We disagree a lot politically but very often agree about UNC sports. That’s what freedom of speech is all about. I appreciate your POV.
I agree with your post.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

All that being said, Bateman made some incredible halftime adjustments last year. I'm confident that he can put a solid defense on the field, so long as we don't have major injury issues.

Agree here. Bateman is an X's and O's guru, which is refreshing. The dude knew Cutcliffe was going to run that jump pass last year and told his defense to look for it. I mean, that's damn impressive and merits a raise. Very nice change of pace from the previous regime which seemed to do all it could to squander opportunities to beat our rivals.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

This thread is a good place to poast this: David Hale (ESPN writer who covers the ACC) said today on Twitter that his early pick to win the Coastal is Pitt. Hale is a smart dude and uses a lot of analytics and data to drive his predictions, so I'm not accusing him of pulling something out of his a**, but what am I missing on Pitt? I wouldn't even say they're the 3rd most likely to win the Coastal.

Yeah they return Pickett at QB, but Pickett was objectively bad, based on any metrics you want to inspect. Maybe it's confirmation bias on my part; or maybe it's just the fact that Pitt is about as unsexy of team you can be, year over year. They don't pull in any elite talent, they don't excel (Top 25) in any one category, they play in an empty stadium, and they get crushed by their overly difficult OOC schedule every year. I just feel like they're always 2-2 or 2-3 after 5 weeks into the season.

Thoughts? To me, UNC and VT are the clear co-favorites to win the ACC. D'eric King is being way overhyped (IMO) at Miami. While the ACC isn't the SEC, King is going to see a noticeably elevated competition level in the ACC vs. the AAC.

 

[tarheel0910]

This thread is a good place to poast this: David Hale (ESPN writer who covers the ACC) said today on Twitter that his early pick to win the Coastal is Pitt. Hale is a smart dude and uses a lot of analytics and data to drive his predictions, so I'm not accusing him of pulling something out of his a**, but what am I missing on Pitt? I wouldn't even say they're the 3rd most likely to win the Coastal.

Yeah they return Pickett at QB, but Pickett was objectively bad, based on any metrics you want to inspect. Maybe it's confirmation bias on my part; or maybe it's just the fact that Pitt is about as unsexy of team you can be, year over year. They don't pull in any elite talent, they don't excel (Top 25) in any one category, they play in an empty stadium, and they get crushed by their overly difficult OOC schedule every year. I just feel like they're always 2-2 or 2-3 after 5 weeks into the season.

Thoughts? To me, UNC and VT are the clear co-favorites to win the ACC. D'eric King is being way overhyped (IMO) at Miami. While the ACC isn't the SEC, King is going to see a noticeably elevated competition level in the ACC vs. the AAC.

I think part of the reason is that historically, the team that shouldn't win the coastal is the team that usually wins it. It's become fashionable to pick the team that shouldn't be the favorite.

 

[uncboy10]

I think part of the reason is that historically, the team that shouldn't win the coastal is the team that usually wins it. It's become fashionable to pick the team that shouldn't be the favorite.

I've seen this exact line of thinking in probably 10 articles in the past two weeks. Not overlooking Va Tech, but I think we're probably the team that makes the most sense as the favorite, so nobody is going to pick us.

In a few years, picking UNC to win the Coastal will be just about like picking Clemson to win the Atlantic. A no brainer.

 

[TarHeelNation11]

I think part of the reason is that historically, the team that shouldn't win the coastal is the team that usually wins it. It's become fashionable to pick the team that shouldn't be the favorite.

Right, but if any writer is going to avoid that trap it's David Hale. There's got to be some sort of data-driven reason he's picking Pitt. Hell if I see it though. Bill C has them as 48th in returning production. For context, UNC is 18th, VT is 6th, Miami is 97th.

Returning a lot of your returning production doesn't equal success by any means (especially if your team sucked), but yeah.

 

[geddoughton23]

I say that the non-coference games get cancelled. UNC goes either 7-1 or 8-0 in conference . If 7-1, ranked 15 going to the conference championship game. If 8-0, ranked 3rd in the country

 

[Archer2]

If we beat UCF, I think we beat Auburn. If we lose to UCF, I think an 0-2 start is likely. Confidence and momentum will be very important to this UNC team that is poised to take the next step and win their division.

UCF should not be taken lightly and I don’t think our staff will allow that to happen, especially on the road. If we can beat a good UCF team on the road in a hostile environment, it will do wonders for our confidence going on to face a traditional powerhouse in Auburn.

Like UNC, UCF amassed over 6,000 yards of total offense last year. So our offense may have to carry us in that game, something we’ve alluded to before.

 

[uncboy10]

I like this video.

Sorry mods for linking media from TOS, if it needs to be taken down just let me know

 

[blazers]

Offense usually seems to be a step behind defense early in the year. I wonder if coronavirus could add this phenom since so many teams missed spring practice and since the timing could be a little weird tween now and kickoff. OL could be sloppy.

Offense is clearly our strength, so this might tip me toward having UCF favored since UCF D was really good last yr.

 

[NBBears20124ACHAMPS]

Offense usually seems to be a step behind defense early in the year. I wonder if coronavirus could add this phenom since so many teams missed spring practice and since the timing could be a little weird tween now and kickoff. OL could be sloppy.

Offense is clearly our strength, so this might tip me toward having UCF favored since UCF D was really good last yr.

UCF gave up 35 to Pitt, 34 to Tulsa and 31 to Tulane. Their SOS was 84th out of 130 teams. They were 42nd in the country in scoring defense.

They lose Nate Evans (leading tackler), Brendon Hayes (team leader in sacks)

Feel good about our offense going into week 1.

 

[uncboy10]

UCF gave up 35 to Pitt, 34 to Tulsa and 31 to Tulane. Their SOS was 84th out of 130 teams. They were 42nd in the country in scoring defense.

They lose Nate Evans (leading tackler), Brendon Hayes (team leader in sacks)

Feel good about our offense going into week 1.

We’re easily 10-15 points per game better on offense than any of those teams were last year. Maybe 20 ppg. If we knock the rust off in practice we could easily hang 50 on UCF.

Lots of people are going to realize how good our offense is after we beat Auburn. Sam will be a top 5 Heisman candidate going into week 3.

Ya heard it here first

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

This thread is a good place to poast this: David Hale (ESPN writer who covers the ACC) said today on Twitter that his early pick to win the Coastal is Pitt. Hale is a smart dude and uses a lot of analytics and data to drive his predictions, so I'm not accusing him of pulling something out of his a**, but what am I missing on Pitt? I wouldn't even say they're the 3rd most likely to win the Coastal.

Yeah they return Pickett at QB, but Pickett was objectively bad, based on any metrics you want to inspect. Maybe it's confirmation bias on my part; or maybe it's just the fact that Pitt is about as unsexy of team you can be, year over year. They don't pull in any elite talent, they don't excel (Top 25) in any one category, they play in an empty stadium, and they get crushed by their overly difficult OOC schedule every year. I just feel like they're always 2-2 or 2-3 after 5 weeks into the season.

Thoughts? To me, UNC and VT are the clear co-favorites to win the ACC. D'eric King is being way overhyped (IMO) at Miami. While the ACC isn't the SEC, King is going to see a noticeably elevated competition level in the ACC vs. the AAC.

Pitt *should* have a really good defense. Rashad Weaver, Jalen Twyman, Keyshon Camp, Paris Ford, Damar Hamlin...Those are first team All ACC candidates. That would be my guess.

 

[blazers]

UCF gave up 35 to Pitt, 34 to Tulsa and 31 to Tulane. Their SOS was 84th out of 130 teams. They were 42nd in the country in scoring defense.

They lose Nate Evans (leading tackler), Brendon Hayes (team leader in sacks)

Feel good about our offense going into week 1.

Sp+ and fpi both had their D ranked top25 last yr. #15 in fpi despite total points given up.

35 to Pitt is a bad look, but 7 were from a special teams return. Also ucf had a TD more than we did offensively vs Pitt.

 

[NBBears20124ACHAMPS]

Sp+ and fpi both had their D ranked top25 last yr. #15 in fpi despite total points given up.

35 to Pitt is a bad look, but 7 were from a special teams return. Also ucf had a TD more than we did offensively vs Pitt.

Pitt had 30 (!) first downs and 439 total yards, 200 yards rushing.



Looking forward to watching the Heels in year 2 under the completely new staff.

 

[blazers]

Pitt had 30 (!) first downs and 439 total yards, 200 yards rushing.



Looking forward to watching the Heels in year 2 under the completely new staff.

Pitt avg 5.3 yards per carry, which a crapton, but that doesn't change the fact that SP+ and FPI had their D so highly ranked.
21st in SP+ and 15th by FPI. Both are opponent-adjusted.

They lose just 3 starters. Nate Evans was good, but he wasn't a draft pick or anything.

I think people are expecting their D to be pretty good again, esp the back 5.

 

[blazers]

Dazz ain't skeert of ucf though: