Road To #1 Seed

[Steat]

The Heels finished the regular season with 6 losses last season and won the regular season ACC title. After this, they went on to win the ACC Tourney and barely clinched a #1 seed and advanced to the NCAA title game. Lets face it folks, securing a #1 seed is almost an automatic ticket to the Final Four.

Here is the 2016/2017 schedule.

I don't see more than 6 regular season losses, the same as last year. What do you think? I have outlined in bold the games UNC will lose. I think it is very important for strength of schedule that the Heels beat either Indiana or Kentucky. Losing to both will not be a good thing.

I outline 4 predicted losses and two other losses along the way for a total of 6 going into the ACC tournament. Duke could beat UNC twice, but I predict the Heels will not lose any other home games.

What do you think? I think any more then 6 losses will push the Heels to a #2 seed.


BASKETBALL SCHEDULE

2016-17 Non-Conference
Nov. 4 vs. UNC Pembroke (exhibition game in Chapel Hill)
Nov. 11 at Tulane (New Orleans, La.)
Nov. 13 vs. Chattanooga (Chapel Hill)
Nov. 15 vs. Long Beach State (Chapel Hill)
Nov. 18 at Hawaii (Honolulu, Hawaii)
Nov. 21 Maui Invitational: Chaminade
Nov. 22 Maui Invitational: Oklahoma State/UConn
Nov. 23 Maui Invitational: Tenn/Wisc/Gtown/Oregon
Nov. 30 at Indiana (ACC/Big Ten Challenge in Bloomington, Ind.)
Dec. 4 vs. Radford (Chapel Hill)
Dec. 7 vs. Davidson (Chapel Hill)
Dec. 11 vs. Tennessee (Chapel Hill)
Dec. 17 vs. Kentucky (CBS Sports Classic in Las Vegas, Nev.)
Dec. 21 vs. Northern Iowa (Chapel Hill)
Dec. 28 vs. Monmouth (Chapel Hill)

2016-17 ACC OpponentsHome/Road: Duke (road game), NC State, Virginia (road game), Pitt
Home: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame
Road: Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College

 

[Archer2]

As you can see, being a #1 seed is certainly no guarantee of making the Final Four. In fact, only 36% of the teams to reach the Final Four over the last 14 years have been #1 seeds. Multiple #1 seeds have made the Final Four only 50% of the time, three #1 seeds have made the Final Four only 14% of the time, and all four #1's only 7% of the time. So while it's nice to be a #1 seed, it's no guarantee of success.

2016 1, 2, 2, 10 North Carolina, Villanova, Oklahoma, Syracuse
2015 1, 1, 1, 7 Kentucky, Wisconsin, dook, Michigan State
2014 1, 2, 7, 8 Florida, Wisconsin, UConn, Kentucky
2013 1, 4, 4, 9 Louisville, Syracuse, Michigan, Wichita State
2012 1, 2, 2, 4 Kentucky, Kansas, Ohio State, Louisville
2011 3, 4, 8, 11 UConn, Kentucky, Butler, VCU
2010 1, 2, 5, 5 Duke, West Virginia, Butler, Michigan State
2009 1, 1, 2, 3 North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Villanova
2008 1, 1, 1, 1 Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA
2007 1, 1, 2, 2 Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UCLA
2006 2, 3, 4, 11 UCLA, Florida, LSU, George Mason
2005 1, 1, 4, 5 North Carolina, Illinois, Louisville, Michigan State
2004 1, 2, 2, 3 Duke, Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech
2003 1, 2, 3, 3 Texas, Kansas, Marquette, Syracuse
2002 1, 1, 2, 5 Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana
2001 1, 1, 2, 3 Duke, Michigan State, Arizona, Maryland
2000 1, 5, 8, 8 Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin

 

[Steat]

As you can see, being a #1 seed is certainly no guarantee of making the Final Four. In fact, only 36% of the teams to reach the Final Four over the last 14 years have been #1 seeds. Multiple #1 seeds have made the Final Four only 50% of the time, three #1 seeds have made the Final Four only 14% of the time, and all four #1's only 7% of the time. So while it's nice to be a #1 seed, it's no guarantee of success.

2016 1, 2, 2, 10 North Carolina, Villanova, Oklahoma, Syracuse
2015 1, 1, 1, 7 Kentucky, Wisconsin, dook, Michigan State
2014 1, 2, 7, 8 Florida, Wisconsin, UConn, Kentucky
2013 1, 4, 4, 9 Louisville, Syracuse, Michigan, Wichita State
2012 1, 2, 2, 4 Kentucky, Kansas, Ohio State, Louisville
2011 3, 4, 8, 11 UConn, Kentucky, Butler, VCU
2010 1, 2, 5, 5 Duke, West Virginia, Butler, Michigan State
2009 1, 1, 2, 3 North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Villanova
2008 1, 1, 1, 1 Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA
2007 1, 1, 2, 2 Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UCLA
2006 2, 3, 4, 11 UCLA, Florida, LSU, George Mason
2005 1, 1, 4, 5 North Carolina, Illinois, Louisville, Michigan State
2004 1, 2, 2, 3 Duke, Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech
2003 1, 2, 3, 3 Texas, Kansas, Marquette, Syracuse
2002 1, 1, 2, 5 Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana
2001 1, 1, 2, 3 Duke, Michigan State, Arizona, Maryland
2000 1, 5, 8, 8 Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin

3 out of the last 4 times the Heels were #1 seeds they reached the Final Four with 2 NCAA titles and an eyelash from a third title. Yep, no quarantee, but like our chances in the #1 slot.

 

[Archer2]

We've certainly done well when we had a very good team, no doubt. Believe me, I'd love to see us get a #1 heading into the NCAAT.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

As you can see, being a #1 seed is certainly no guarantee of making the Final Four. In fact, only 36% of the teams to reach the Final Four over the last 14 years have been #1 seeds. Multiple #1 seeds have made the Final Four only 50% of the time, three #1 seeds have made the Final Four only 14% of the time, and all four #1's only 7% of the time. So while it's nice to be a #1 seed, it's no guarantee of success.

2016 1, 2, 2, 10 North Carolina, Villanova, Oklahoma, Syracuse
2015 1, 1, 1, 7 Kentucky, Wisconsin, dook, Michigan State
2014 1, 2, 7, 8 Florida, Wisconsin, UConn, Kentucky
2013 1, 4, 4, 9 Louisville, Syracuse, Michigan, Wichita State
2012 1, 2, 2, 4 Kentucky, Kansas, Ohio State, Louisville
2011 3, 4, 8, 11 UConn, Kentucky, Butler, VCU
2010 1, 2, 5, 5 Duke, West Virginia, Butler, Michigan State
2009 1, 1, 2, 3 North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Villanova
2008 1, 1, 1, 1 Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA
2007 1, 1, 2, 2 Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UCLA
2006 2, 3, 4, 11 UCLA, Florida, LSU, George Mason
2005 1, 1, 4, 5 North Carolina, Illinois, Louisville, Michigan State
2004 1, 2, 2, 3 Duke, Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech
2003 1, 2, 3, 3 Texas, Kansas, Marquette, Syracuse
2002 1, 1, 2, 5 Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana
2001 1, 1, 2, 3 Duke, Michigan State, Arizona, Maryland
2000 1, 5, 8, 8 Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin

Unfortunately it should be Nova that is bolded in 2016, not North Carolina.

 

[Archer2]

Unfortunately it should be Nova that is bolded in 2016, not North Carolina.

Oops. Freudian slip?

 

[imajericho]

I'd say we lose somewhere around 8 games next year. Depends on our interior a lot and if our 3 point shooting is getting going or not. (Looking at Justin Jackson)

 

[DSouthr]

Well, have said this several times, I think we have a great shot at returning to the final 4 and from there all bets are off. I think we go as far as our front court play allows, I feel great about our potential back court play but have some lack of certainty what our front court will give us. If Meeks can find that next level that I absolutely believe is in him, if Hicks can stay on the court and if Tony can fill in with solid solid minutes, then I think we can be really good. But we are going to need big time seasons from Meeks and Hicks and a solid freshman season for Tony to get there.

 

[gunslingerdick]

I'd say we lose somewhere around 8 games next year. Depends on our interior a lot and if our 3 point shooting is getting going or not. (Looking at Justin Jackson)

I agree. We won't be as good this season as we were last season but we can be close. It will depend on how Hicks adjusts to be the main guy we count on. Can he avoid foul trouble and still be productive? Also, as you stated, 3 point shooting will be a key to our success - more so this year than last. Brice could go and get misses and an unbelievable rate. Not sure we'll have the same rebounding talent next year. So we'll have to be better shooting it. I'm scared that Williams isn't going to find the mark. But I feel confident in Berry being great and Jackson being good from deep.

Right now, I'll say 6 losses. But that's subject to change if I don't see what I need to out of Hicks. duke, UVa and Pitt on the road, maybe Wisconsin in the Maui final, and then 2 games where we have no business losing and everybody will panic and say Roy Williams should go.

 

[gary-7]

The Heels finished the regular season with 6 losses last season and won the regular season ACC title. After this, they went on to win the ACC Tourney and barely clinched a #1 seed and advanced to the NCAA title game. Lets face it folks, securing a #1 seed is almost an automatic ticket to the Final Four.

Here is the 2016/2017 schedule.

I don't see more than 6 regular season losses, the same as last year. What do you think? I have outlined in bold the games UNC will lose. I think it is very important for strength of schedule that the Heels beat either Indiana or Kentucky. Losing to both will not be a good thing.

I outline 4 predicted losses and two other losses along the way for a total of 6 going into the ACC tournament. Duke could beat UNC twice, but I predict the Heels will not lose any other home games.

What do you think? I think any more then 6 losses will push the Heels to a #2 seed.


BASKETBALL SCHEDULE

2016-17 Non-Conference
Nov. 4 vs. UNC Pembroke (exhibition game in Chapel Hill)
Nov. 11 at Tulane (New Orleans, La.)
Nov. 13 vs. Chattanooga (Chapel Hill)
Nov. 15 vs. Long Beach State (Chapel Hill)
Nov. 18 at Hawaii (Honolulu, Hawaii)
Nov. 21 Maui Invitational: Chaminade
Nov. 22 Maui Invitational: Oklahoma State/UConn
Nov. 23 Maui Invitational: Tenn/Wisc/Gtown/Oregon
Nov. 30 at Indiana (ACC/Big Ten Challenge in Bloomington, Ind.)
Dec. 4 vs. Radford (Chapel Hill)
Dec. 7 vs. Davidson (Chapel Hill)
Dec. 11 vs. Tennessee (Chapel Hill)
Dec. 17 vs. Kentucky (CBS Sports Classic in Las Vegas, Nev.)
Dec. 21 vs. Northern Iowa (Chapel Hill)
Dec. 28 vs. Monmouth (Chapel Hill)

2016-17 ACC OpponentsHome/Road: Duke (road game), NC State, Virginia (road game), Pitt
Home: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame
Road: Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College

The schedule is brutal but I think some folks are underestimating just how good this team can be. If JB gets some help with the 3-ball, Hicks can stay on the floor and Meeks stays healthy? All I can say to our opponents is: "Duck!".

 

[Sk1310]

If Hicks stays out of fould trouble, and Justin Jackson shoots the 3 ball well all year, we are at worst a top 3 team with 5 or so losses.

 

[Steat]

The schedule is brutal but I think some folks are underestimating just how good this team can be. If JB gets some help with the 3-ball, Hicks can stay on the floor and Meeks stays healthy? All I can say to our opponents is: "Duck!".

I agree. I also think that one of the 3 (Williams, Robinson or Woods) will have eye opening season that will surprise many of us. I'm hoping Roy gives Williams the green light and tell him shoot regardless of whether the ball is falling in the hoop. I'm not worried about Hicks because he knows what he needs to do about the foul situation. Brice was pretty bad on the fouls his entire career but did get a little better last year.

 

[Archer2]

Right now, I'll say 6 losses. But that's subject to change if I don't see what I need to out of Hicks. duke, UVa and Pitt on the road, maybe Wisconsin in the Maui final, and then 2 games where we have no business losing and everybody will panic and say Roy Williams should go.

Unless we run the table, this will happen anyway. Fans are pretty predictable in general and ours are extremely predictable.

 

[gary-7]

I'm hoping Roy gives Williams the green light and tell him shoot regardless of whether the ball is falling in the hoop.

I believe you will see just that. Roy knows KW can stroke it, and he's not an irresponsible mad bomber by nature. I'm pretty sure Roy's gonna say "if it's a good look, let if fly, son".
I've also gotten good reports on 7th's stroke getting more consistent. That would be a bonus because I KNOW Kenny can do it --- you just can't teach that picture-book form.
Not really counting on BRob for too much until next season.

 

[Steat]

I believe you will see just that. Roy knows KW can stroke it, and he's not an irresponsible mad bomber by nature. I'm pretty sure Roy's gonna say "if it's a good look, let if fly, son".
I've also gotten good reports on 7th's stroke getting more consistent. That would be a bonus because I KNOW Kenny can do it --- you just can't teach that picture-book form.
Not really counting on BRob for too much until next season.

Gary, do you see BRob developing along the line of Reggie Bullock, less a starter's position?

 

[DSouthr]

I believe you will see just that. Roy knows KW can stroke it, and he's not an irresponsible mad bomber by nature. I'm pretty sure Roy's gonna say "if it's a good look, let if fly, son".
I've also gotten good reports on 7th's stroke getting more consistent. That would be a bonus because I KNOW Kenny can do it --- you just can't teach that picture-book form.
Not really counting on BRob for too much until next season.

Absolutely agree gary, and yes, 7th can fill it up, just a lil bit on the streaky side but when he can see the ball go in the hole, he heats up real quick. I think a lot of folks are under estimating the production on BOTH ends of the court we are going to get from our 2 guard position next season. I LOVE the talent we have there, absolutely love it!

IDK who the best team in the ACC will be next season, I can hear the dukies laughing as I type that! But think about it, duke will rely on more freshmen next season than they ever have and they do not have a true PG on the team. Uva is gonna be really good, Brogden and Gill will be hard guys to replace but they have a really really good freshman coming in and the transfer kid from Memphis is a very good addition. We should have the experience advantage and I STRONGLY believe we will be a much better defensive team with the physicality we can defend the back court with. Kenny and 7th will defend their butts off, you know Theo will, and led by the strong man at the point? That means TOs and fast break points initiated by Joel.

If we can defend and rebound in the paint AND get the outside shooting I expect, we should be a favorite to be back in the final 4. Duke should be better than last season but just how much better, that is a lot of talent but that talent has not played college ball and it has not played the variety of college ball we have in the ACC. UVa has a lot to replace but they have a lot to replace what they lost with.

 

[DSouthr]

Gary, do you see BRob developing along the line of Reggie Bullock, less a starter's position?

Not gary but I did watch a Holiday Inn commercial last night?

If I were to compare him to Reggie I would call him a poor man's Reggie, don't see him being the defender Reggie was and not sure I would elevate him to the same level of competitor Reggie was, Reggie was a bit longer and carried a lil more weight. I would call him Theo with a jump shot but not as much of the warrior spirit. I think it may be his Jr season before we really see a solid rotation player, IMO his transition to how we play in the ACC will be the most hard of our frosh.

 

[gary-7]

Gary, do you see BRob developing along the line of Reggie Bullock, less a starter's position?

IMO just from what I've seen his biggest challenge will be physical maturity vs ACC level. I think he has a very nice upside especially once his body matures and gets stronger --- he's more smooth athlete than explosive.

I think more in terms of what a luxury it was for KW to have a freshman season with no pressure to produce big minutes. I see Kenny blossoming this season and there's no reason Brandon can't follow that same path and shine as a soph.