Rounding into (statistical) form?

[gary-7]

While we've had our fits and starts, heading into this week there are already some noticeable improvements over last season. And by my reckoning it has much to do with the right people playing in the right places. The early numbers (in the 6 games with our full roster available) are showing promise! Let's take a look:.

Before the season I posted that in our championship runs in the shot-clock era our magic team numbers are around 90 PPG with an avg victory margin of 17.7. In the 6 games since Marcus returned we are at 91.1 PPG with an avg margin of 18.1. Check! Adjusted for the shorter shot-clock that is spot-on.

As for individual players, last season Marcus, playing hurt and a majority of his minutes at PG finished with an acceptable (but not ideal) 2.3/1 Assist/TO ratio --- and his ratio was much worse at PG than during his minutes at the 2.
Thus far this season, playing almost exclusively at the 2, In his six games back Marcus is boasting a gaudy 6.5/1.
In those same six games, playing exclusively at PG Joel Berry is at a championship PG level 3.8/1 (and that's with having been cheated out of a few dimes by road stat guys).

So, why the monstrous difference? Easy:
Playing with a team where everyone is in their ideal position
There is a HUGE difference in our system between playing PG and playing the 2, especially in that the PG has almost the entire burden of handling "under stress", i.e., advancing and initiating plays under close defense. In contrast, the Wings have the luxury of catching in "triple threat" position with a live dribble at their disposal.
It also helps having two true Guards in the backcourt. Contrast last season when JP spent most of his time as the de facto 2, and had a A/TO ratio below 2/1.

Other numbers of note:
- For the season both of our "attack" wings, JJ and Theo, are slightly above 2/1, which is very acceptable for a 3-man.
- We have 5 players averaging in double figures, and I suspect given the way he's attacking that Hicks will eventually make that 6.
- Berry leads the team in minutes (30.6), and as @acarter0277 and I were discussing preseason, that is a very good thing. He has been mostly able to stay out of foul trouble (which is a big concern for our best defender who has to spend so much time guarding the opponent's primary ball-handler). That will be something to watch down the road. He and Brice need to stay out of foul trouble and on the floor.

Looking forward to watching this play out.

 

[Heelicious]

Nice stats and observations, Gary. I find that sort of analysis fun and interesting, so I dug into some stats a bit further (at a site called SportsReference.com) to see if STATISTICALLY our result in this year (I'll call 2016), bode well for us, in comparison to '14-15 (15); '08-09 (09); and 04-05 (05).

Disclaimer; the 16 stats isn't a huge sample size yet. And I didn't adjust (factor out) the 6 sans-Marcus games like Gary did. And you could argue that our games so far have been "stat padding" and that conference play will be tougher. Maybe... but with UNI, Texas, Maryland, KSU, and Northwestern on the pre-conference schedule, all likely or potential tourney teams, I'd say our pre- conference opponents are pretty representative of the quality we'll see in conference. Anyway, here goes my stats comparison:

16 15 09 05
FT% 73%* 70% 75% 72.5%
FTA/G 22 21 26 27
FG% 50% 48% 48% 50%
PPG 86.3 77 89.8 88.0
A/TO 1.87 1.37 1.45 1.18
3P% .349** .336 .387 .403
3PA/G 18 13 18 18

Now, a couple comments on some of these stats, and how they do seem to bode well for us:
FT%: A very nice bump up from last year, AND if you remove guys that likely won't be shooting them at end of the game (Joel James, Theo, Luke Maye, end of bench), we jump up to 77%! This is including Hicks and Brice, who have improved a lot at the stripe. Everyone of this group shooting over 72%, and the 2-3 people at point / handling the ball at the end of the game (Britt, Berry, Paige) shooting over 85%!!! Wow!

FTA: this number is too low so far in '16. With the way we can shoot them, we need our guards to be a bit better at driving to the hole more often. All four of Berry, Paige, Jackson, and even Britt, do well at driving to the hole. They need to always do that, when the alternative is some closely guarded midrange shot. And, when Brice and Hicks, (and Meeks?) have an advantage on the inside, which they so often do, be more determined to get the ball inside.

FG%: nothing extraordinary here. I believe we just need to stay out of shooting contested 15-18 footers, and ensure the right people are taking shots.

PPG: As Gary mentioned, we're right on track. Look at the marked jump up 16 vs. 15. As Gary also said, this is a lot about having the right guys driving and steering the car, and getting it to the right people in the right places.... and less this year of guys just jacking up ill-advised shots out-of-position and out-of-control (will rename nameless), and obviously more help for Marcus and a healthy Marcus, and another year under Berry's belt helps a lot. Plus - Brice being a scoring machine when his head is right, and Isaiah really stepping up his offensive game.

A/TO: Right know this is an eye-popping stat; 0.5 better than last year, and well above our previous champ teams. Several on this board have commented on what a great passing team this 16 team is, and the stats bear it out. Marcus, Berry, and Jackson are off-the-charts good as a combo, but Theo, and even our bigs have very nice numbers and are great passers. Their ability to take care of the ball and find people on primary and secondary break, drives this team. And the reduction of boneheaded TO's vs. last year, makes the games much easier to watch. I don't worry much when the ball is in the hands of any of our guards / wings. I think Britt has improved in this regard as well.

3P%: A nice step up from last year, but still not where it needs to be. Justin's spotty shooting has hurt us here so far this year.... but I trust he'll be OK. If you factor out what I'll call the O-fers, the guys who so far have no business taking a three, and won't ever really be an option to take them in crunch time, and haven't made one this year (Maye, Kenny Williams, a couple guys at end of the bench......), there are only 5 guys who have taken and made 3 PT shots (Berry, Paige, Britt, Jackson, Pinson). These guys are at .385 collectively...and Berry, Paige, and Britt are at 42% collectively. Plenty good. "Take more open 3 pt shots in the first half, Marcus!"

3PA: See the significant jump up from last year. Last year, it was still mostly Marcus hoisting the greatest % of threes; he took about 5.5 per game in '15 which was over 40% of the attempts, and this year he is taking about 6.2 per game, not a big increase in volume, but less than a third of the team's attempts. Less pressure on Paige thinking he needs to do it all.

It'd be interesting to compare at another time, how this 16 team compares to the 05 09 and 15 teams regarding defensive stats....

 

[Ozheelfan]

Thanks guys. Threads like this make reading this board worthwhile. The Dook and Kensucky threads get super tiring.
Interesting to note Justin's mini- slump. Many, me included, expected a breakout year but he seems to be fighting consistency, especially with his outside shot.
I still love what he does off the ball and his overall court sense, the shots will eventually drop.
Also notice he's been given the top defender nod by the coaches more than anyone else on the team.

 

[gary-7]

Nice stats and observations, Gary. I find that sort of analysis fun and interesting, so I dug into some stats a bit further (at a site called SportsReference.com) to see if STATISTICALLY our result in this year (I'll call 2016), bode well for us, in comparison to '14-15 (15); '08-09 (09); and 04-05 (05).

FTA: this number is too low so far in '16. With the way we can shoot them, we need our guards to be a bit better at driving to the hole more often. All four of Berry, Paige, Jackson, and even Britt, do well at driving to the hole. They need to always do that, when the alternative is some closely guarded midrange shot. And, when Brice and Hicks, (and Meeks?) have an advantage on the inside, which they so often do, be more determined to get the ball inside.
.

Good work, Heelicious. I looked at those same numbers and you mentioned a big one I forgot:
FTA
We do need to get to the line more.
Of course with a foul-drawing machine like Psycho, that bumps your team numbers, but I love it when JB runs it up their backs and powers to the rack or Marcus does one of his acrobatic exhibitions. Hicks is a good example for our other Bigs the way he is fighting to find his way to the rim, and he's getting fouled a lot. In fact he is getting to the line at easily the highest rate per minute played. I think Jackson is so crafty that he often gets a shot up before they have a chance to foul him .

 

[gary-7]

Thanks guys. Threads like this make reading this board worthwhile. The Dook and Kensucky threads get super tiring.
Interesting to note Justin's mini- slump. Many, me included, expected a breakout year but he seems to be fighting consistency, especially with his outside shot.
I still love what he does off the ball and his overall court sense, the shots will eventually drop.
Also notice he's been given the top defender nod by the coaches more than anyone else on the team.

I watched JJ pretty closely last game, and I can see with him it is confidence. This summer he was stroking that outside J like one of the Splash Brothers --- no hesitation --- like he knew it was going in. He started the season off cold and you can see him thinking instead of reacting. If he can just get that long-range feel back he'll break loose, because then he is basically unguardable.

On the other end his D has improved --- and although, as someone posted earlier, the coaches sometimes give that award as a motivator/reward as much as for actual performance, he is doing a lot of fundamental things better than last season.

 

[UNC Blue Hup]

Thank you guys for this research! I think this team will just keep getting better and more healthy too. Let's just try to stay healthy throughout and we have the best chance, that's for sure!

 

[gary-7]

Thank you guys for this research! I think this team will just keep getting better and more healthy too. Let's just try to stay healthy throughout and we have the best chance, that's for sure!

You said a mouth full, Hup.
When I look at this bunch I see ghosts of two all-time great UNC teams --- '09 and '77.
Both were on paper the best teams in the country.
One won the Natty, and one didn't --- because one stayed pretty healthy and one didn't.

The one that didn't still miraculously made it to the Finals, but if healthy the '77 team may have gone down as our best ever... and that even includes '09.
Think about it, 4 future 1st round draft choices:
You had (Jr) Phil F***ing Ford at PG and (Sr) Walter Davis at the 3, who would go on to become the next 2 NBA Rookies-of-the-Year. (Phil was drafted 2nd overall, Sweet D was 5th overall)
At the 5 you had the great (Sr), 6'10" Tommy LaGarde, a complete player and rim protector who minus injuries would have gone down as one of the all-time Carolina Bigs. He blew a knee and was out for the season after 20 games. Still made some All-America teams and was the 9th overall NBA draft selection. He later led the Dallas Mavericks in their inaugural season in rebounding and blocked shots and second in scoring before his strong pro career was cut short again by injuries.
At the 4 you had (Fr) Mike O'Koren, who hung 31 on Tark's Runnin' Rebs in the Semis, and would go on to become an All-American and the 6th overall NBA draft selection.
And oh yeah, at the 2 was the glue of the team, coach-on-the-floor combo guard Jon Kuester. One of the great unsung Carolina players, who if not for Phil would likely have been one of he top 2 or 3 PGs in the ACC, and could run the 4 Corners like a champ when Phil was out. Went on to be drafted in the 3rd round and was in the NBA for a few seasons before becoming a coach, incl a stint as Head Coach of the Pistons.
By the time of the NCAA tourney, only Kuester and O'Koren were healthy. Phil was playing on one good leg, Davis had taped-up broken fingers on his shooting hand and of course LaGarde was done. The Center was thus by committee --- "Yon-Wolf-Sin" as Dean called it --- a tandem of 3 mediocre back-ups (and not the good Wolf, BTW).
One of Dean's masterpiece coaching jobs to get that far, unfortunately marred by 2 rare coaching mistakes in the Final --- not calling TO to get O'Koren back in the game at a crucial run where there were no whistles and going to the 4 Corners one possession too soon. With a healthy team none of that would have likely mattered.

 

[TarHeelMark]

^ the Phil Ford era was when I started watching and loving UNC basketball.... still hurts to think of that loss in '77 and how easily the Heels should've won. Of course we should've been playing UNC-Charlotte and Cornbread Maxwell for the title, but Marquette benefited from some dook-like clock work at the end of the semi-final game, IIRC.

 

[shun1]

Thanks to all of you!

!!!!!!!!!!!!! GO ROY & STAFF !!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!! GO MY TAR HEELS !!!!!!!!!

 

[j-doolsheels]

Wow those are some interesting posts! I thought the 2012 team easily could have won the title had Marshall not been injured. This has really been a fun season.

 

[DSouthr]

Very good information guys, appreciate it! To me, when I consider last season's team to this one, I see 2 things that jump out at me, both have been mentioned in this thread.

First, guys playing their natural positions, last season we had a lot of guys playing out of their natural positions and it showed. As gary offers, our starting 2 guard was JP, a natural wing. It wasn't so tuff that JP was a wing that started at the 2, the real problem was many times the needle turned we saw JP actually trying to handle the point, IMO he did a solid job for a wing but lets face it, a wing as your PG spells trouble and in our case way to many TOs were the result. Add to the mix the fact that JP was one of those back court guys that opponents dared to take the jump shot, many times running away from him to double someone else (usually Marcus).

When you have a wing playing the 2 you are going to struggle with ball handling, for a team that loves to get out & run yet you have a poor ball handle at the 2 your break ops are going to take a hit. We found ourselves in a lot more half court offense than any of us were used to and mostly that half court offense was having to go against yet another zone. Our attacks against zone tried to penatrate the zones with the pass because we were limited in guys able to do it with the dribble and those passes came from to far out front, some times they were pretty but way to often they ended up going the other way.

Guys playing certain positions, especially playing out of position is usually dictated by circumstance and our circumstance was we lacked shooters ready to take the shot out side of Marcus. Now Britt did come on as a shooter and we began to see that Nate may look like a PG, may walk like a PG, may even talk like a PG but the position he just seems to fit best is at the 2. He just does not have that natural PG feel, IMO struggles with court vision that your PG at this level has to have naturally. He can fill in the position when needed but by now I think few would argue that they want to see him in there in any role other than the 2 playing beside either Marcus or Joel.

Then we come to Marcus Paige, may sound strange for me to suggest Marcus was out of position at the point last season but IMO he was. Now had Marcus had a sweet jump shooting 2 guard like Ellington or Donald Williams very different story but he didn't, he had a poor jump shooter as his back court mate, Marcus was the shooter, not to mention he pretty much hobbled thru most of the season. Ray Felton for example, didn't have a great jump shooter at the 2 in Jackie but he did have a great jump shooting wing in McCants, Jackson was no where near McCants level last season, not nearly the type of deadly shooter that drains away pressure from the PG. And don't forget, ray hit timely jump shots but his real value was getting us out running, we didn't have to rely on Ray's scoring, we had to rely on Marcus scoring.

Now this season, Joel is now our starting PG and no one questions that, Marcus is at his more natural position at the 2 and can look for his offense more freely. JP is gone, Theo played some 2 while Marcus was out due to need but with Marcus back has played at his more natural wing spot behind Jackson. Nate is pretty much exclusively a 2 guard this season and is shooting strong enough that he has to be guarded giving Marcus more room to operate from the point when Joel is out. You see it, MUCH smoother, far fewer risky long passes in half court, we penatrate the zone with the dribble and finish it off with the pass, rather than trying to snake in a pass thru a zone from 35ft out.

So yes yes to guys playing at their more natural positions! The other big time improvement from last season, that is a function of guys playing their natural positions is our shot selection has vastly improved. We don't take a lot of those heat checks that LMac drove me nutzs with. Theo can get carried away at times but you don't see him taking 40ft fade aways with a hand in his face that we saw to often last season when Lmac was "feelin it".

I would suggest the one guy whose shot selection does cause me to question a bit to often right now is jackson, he is clearly struggling with his jump shots, the runners are wonderful but his jump shooting has been a bit of an issue. Watch him, he is rushing his shot, rushing his turn to get square when trying to shoot over the on coming defender. Pump fake it and let the defender fly by and then either take the shot or the runner. Slow down, don't force it, if the shot isn't clean don't take it, no shame in that, pass it reset for a cleaner look. Looks like it has got in his head a little bit, just slow down and he will be fine. Every other part of his game has gotten so much better, his passing is deadly, his runner is a weapon that may not be matched by anyone else on the college level, he is defending much much better, if his jumpers were falling folks would be talking 1st team NCAA AA maybe.

 

[UNCbeliever]

Thanks for the stat work...love the passion for Tar Heels basketball!

 

[Steat]

You said a mouth full, Hup.
When I look at this bunch I see ghosts of two all-time great UNC teams --- '09 and '77.
Both were on paper the best teams in the country.
One won the Natty, and one didn't --- because one stayed pretty healthy and one didn't.

The one that didn't still miraculously made it to the Finals, but if healthy the '77 team may have gone down as our best ever... and that even includes '09.
Think about it, 4 future 1st round draft choices:
You had (Jr) Phil F***ing Ford at PG and (Sr) Walter Davis at the 3, who would go on to become the next 2 NBA Rookies-of-the-Year. (Phil was drafted 2nd overall, Sweet D was 5th overall)
At the 5 you had the great (Sr), 6'10" Tommy LaGarde, a complete player and rim protector who minus injuries would have gone down as one of the all-time Carolina Bigs. He blew a knee and was out for the season after 20 games. Still made some All-America teams and was the 9th overall NBA draft selection. He later led the Dallas Mavericks in their inaugural season in rebounding and blocked shots and second in scoring before his strong pro career was cut short again by injuries.
At the 4 you had (Fr) Mike O'Koren, who hung 31 on Tark's Runnin' Rebs in the Semis, and would go on to become an All-American and the 6th overall NBA draft selection.
And oh yeah, at the 2 was the glue of the team, coach-on-the-floor combo guard Jon Kuester. One of the great unsung Carolina players, who if not for Phil would likely have been one of he top 2 or 3 PGs in the ACC, and could run the 4 Corners like a champ when Phil was out. Went on to be drafted in the 3rd round and was in the NBA for a few seasons before becoming a coach, incl a stint as Head Coach of the Pistons.
By the time of the NCAA tourney, only Kuester and O'Koren were healthy. Phil was playing on one good leg, Davis had taped-up broken fingers on his shooting hand and of course LaGarde was done. The Center was thus by committee --- "Yon-Wolf-Sin" as Dean called it --- a tandem of 3 mediocre back-ups (and not the good Wolf, BTW).
One of Dean's masterpiece coaching jobs to get that far, unfortunately marred by 2 rare coaching mistakes in the Final --- not calling TO to get O'Koren back in the game at a crucial run where there were no whistles and going to the 4 Corners one possession too soon. With a healthy team none of that would have likely mattered.

Gary, great stuff!