Roy and Point Guard U...

[gary-7]

All the PG discussion got me thinking about Roy's history. I have long contended that having the right PG is the one absolute necessity for a successful Carolina season --- it is simply the nature of the Dean/Roy system. We're Point Guard U for a reason. Anyway, culling this chart from memory (forgive me if I leave anyone out), below is what Roy has recruited and/or had to work with. The categories are consistent with what the players were considered given their HS/AAU history.
So here's the legend of the chart:
PG1 = Elite sure-fire HS PGs brought in to be the heir-apparent.
PG2 = Decent HS PGs who would at least be solid depth, if not starter
Combo = The wild-cards --- guys who can definitely be a college 2 and maybe be a strong 1.
PointFwd = Versatile wings who could maybe run Point in an emergency

(class),..PG1.......... PG2......... Combo......... PointFwd
(inhtd)... Ray.......... ------- ........ Melvin........... -------
(2003)...-----........... QT .......... ------- ............. -------
(2004)...----- .......... ------ ......... ------- ............. -------
(2005)...-----........... ------ ......... Bobby........... Ginyard
(2006)... Ty ........... ------ .......... ------- ............. -------
(2007)...------ ......... ------ .......... ------- ............. -------
(2008)... Drew........ ------ .......... ------ .............. -------
(2009)... ------ ........ ------ .......... Dexter .......... -------
(2010)... Butter ...... ------ .......... ------ ............. -------
(2011)... ------ ........ Stilman....... ------ ............. -------
(2012)... ------ ........ ------ ........... Marcus ........ -------
(2013)... ------ ........ Nate ........... ------- ........... -------
(2014)... Joel ......... ------ ........... ------- ........... Theo

Pretty easy to see why Roy has had such success. The only PG1 fail was Drew, and that was only because of his head being up his ass. Drew was an elite recruit, and lest we forget, he went on to be 1st team All-Pac12 at UCLA, BUT, he refused to do the thing that is most essential in the Carolina system --- make the pass that leads to the pass. The ball stuck to his hands and he was a stat whore. So.. from Ray thru JB, Roy was 4-for-5 with PG1s, with 3 Nattys to show for it (and good shot at a 4th with Butter if not for Creighton).

And bonus, Roy scored hits from Combos with Bobby and Marcus, who proved they could succeed at Point while holding down the fort for Ty and JB, respectively. As for the other Combos, Melvin found his niche as a backup utility guy, while Dex found most of his success as a starter off the ball.

As for PG2s, QT proved to be a reliable backup PG and stepped in capably when needed, and we don't win the 2017 Natty without Stilman, and while Nate never panned out as a frontline PG he still found a niche as a valuable backup utility guy.

As for the forwards, Ginyard came in handy filling in at Point when injuries hit, and although Theo was never needed in that role, his play-making abilities were a big part of his effectiveness.
So where does that leave us?

(2015)... ------ ......... ------ .......... ------- ........... -------
(2016)... ------ ......... ------ .......... Woods ........ -------
(2017)... Jalek ........ ------ .......... Platek ......... -------
(2018)... ------ ......... JetJr .......... Coby .......... Leaky
(2019)... Francis .... ------ ........... ------- .......... ------

So... now with the latest heir-apparent PG1 MIA, and the next one a year away, the immediate question comes down to whether any of the candidates from the other categories can step up to salvage a season? All I'll say is to keep in mind that Bobby and Marcus weren't ordinary Combos. Roy was genuinely confident (as was I) that they had the instincts to handle the 1. Coach-speak aside, he has never held quite that confidence in 7th or Coby. 7th got a shot because of a recruiting promise, and that was a safe experiment with JB here and other options available. And (unlike Marcus or Bobby) almost nothing Coby has done in HS/AAU carries over to the unique responsibilities of a UNC 1. In other words he'll be a virgin. Platek didn't play much Point in HS.

7th will get another shot by default, but I will be shocked if he gets significantly better at it. Can Coby do it? Perhaps, but is it realistic to expect him to be as good at it as say, Marcus was as a Freshman?... and remember, Marcus struggled mightily til he found his groove as a Soph. Platek got his feet wet in a few college games as a Frosh and looked comfortable with the floor-general responsibilities. Baby Jet is most likely suited to be a reliable PG2, but as more than that?

Anyway, we have two terrific Seniors in Luke and Kenny (and hopefully a third in Cam), some intriguing developing Bigs and a baddass Freshman in Nas coming in. It would be a shame to waste that. Thus, PG is question 1, 1a and 1b over the next few months...

 

[truetarheelraider0806]

Gary I followed Marcus recruitment pretty close. It was one of the first recruitments I followed. He was recruited as a PG not a combo. Infsct I read a premium article on him on another site. Roy was watching JP Tokato play, and asks him what of would you like to play with. KP answers that he wants to play with Marcus Paige. So coach goes and watches him. Not long after he offers him. My point to the story was I dig your research and find it mostly accurate except for the Marcus thing.

Several schools, including Iowa, heavily recruited Paige, whom Rivals ranks as the nation's sixth-best point guard.

Exert from the Gazette

 

[Heels5150]

All the PG discussion got me thinking about Roy's history. I have long contended that having the right PG is the one absolute necessity for a successful Carolina season --- it is simply the nature of the Dean/Roy system. We're Point Guard U for a reason. Anyway, culling this chart from memory (forgive me if I leave anyone out), below is what Roy has recruited and/or had to work with. The categories are consistent with what the players were considered given their HS/AAU history.
So here's the legend of the chart:
PG1 = Elite sure-fire HS PGs brought in to be the heir-apparent.
PG2 = Decent HS PGs who would at least be solid depth, if not starter
Combo = The wild-cards --- guys who can definitely be a college 2 and maybe be a strong 1.
PointFwd = Versatile wings who could maybe run Point in an emergency

(class),..PG1.......... PG2......... Combo......... PointFwd
(inhtd)... Ray.......... ------- ........ Melvin........... -------
(2003)...-----........... QT .......... ------- ............. -------
(2004)...----- .......... ------ ......... ------- ............. -------
(2005)...-----........... ------ ......... Bobby........... Ginyard
(2006)... Ty ........... ------ .......... ------- ............. -------
(2007)...------ ......... ------ .......... ------- ............. -------
(2008)... Drew........ ------ .......... ------ .............. -------
(2009)... ------ ........ ------ .......... Dexter .......... -------
(2010)... Butter ...... ------ .......... ------ ............. -------
(2011)... ------ ........ Stilman....... ------ ............. -------
(2012)... ------ ........ ------ ........... Marcus ........ -------
(2013)... ------ ........ Nate ........... ------- ........... -------
(2014)... Joel ......... ------ ........... ------- ........... Theo

Pretty easy to see why Roy has had such success. The only PG1 fail was Drew, and that was only because of his head being up his ass. Drew was an elite recruit, and lest we forget, he went on to be 1st team All-Pac12 at UCLA, BUT, he refused to do the thing that is most essential in the Carolina system --- make the pass that leads to the pass. The ball stuck to his hands and he was a stat whore. So.. from Ray thru JB, Roy was 4-for-5 with PG1s, with 3 Nattys to show for it (and good shot at a 4th with Butter if not for Creighton).

And bonus, Roy scored hits from Combos with Bobby and Marcus, who proved they could succeed at Point while holding down the fort for Ty and JB, respectively. As for the other Combos, Melvin found his niche as a backup utility guy, while Dex found most of his success as a starter off the ball.

As for PG2s, QT proved to be a reliable backup PG and stepped in capably when needed, and we don't win the 2017 Natty without Stilman, and while Nate never panned out as a frontline PG he still found a niche as a valuable backup utility guy.

As for the forwards, Ginyard came in handy filling in at Point when injuries hit, and although Theo was never needed in that role, his play-making abilities were a big part of his effectiveness.
So where does that leave us?

(2015)... ------ ......... ------ .......... ------- ........... -------
(2016)... ------ ......... ------ .......... Woods ........ -------
(2017)... Jalek ........ ------ .......... Platek ......... -------
(2018)... ------ ......... JetJr .......... Coby .......... Leaky
(2019)... Francis .... ------ ........... ------- .......... ------

So... now with the latest heir-apparent PG1 MIA, and the next one a year away, the immediate question comes down to whether any of the candidates from the other categories can step up to salvage a season? All I'll say is to keep in mind that Bobby and Marcus weren't ordinary Combos. Roy was genuinely confident (as was I) that they had the instincts to handle the 1. Coach-speak aside, he has never held quite that confidence in 7th or Coby. 7th got a shot because of a recruiting promise, and that was a safe experiment with JB here and other options available. And (unlike Marcus or Bobby) almost nothing Coby has done in HS/AAU carries over to the unique responsibilities of a UNC 1. In other words he'll be a virgin. Platek didn't play much Point in HS.

7th will get another shot by default, but I will be shocked if he gets significantly better at it. Can Coby do it? Perhaps, but is it realistic to expect him to be as good at it as say, Marcus was as a Freshman?... and remember, Marcus struggled mightily til he found his groove as a Soph. Platek got his feet wet in a few college games as a Frosh and looked comfortable with the floor-general responsibilities. Baby Jet is most likely suited to be a reliable PG2, but as more than that?

Anyway, we have two terrific Seniors in Luke and Kenny (and hopefully a third in Cam), some intriguing developing Bigs and a baddass Freshman in Nas coming in. It would be a shame to waste that. Thus, PG is question 1, 1a and 1b over the next few months...

That is a very interesting and to me accurate and fair analogy of our PG’s. We have 3 Bob Cousy Award winners and we could have had four in Joel.

 

[heels05champs]

This reconfirms my worries for the season. I’m not very optimistic for the pg position and I’d hate to see such a talented team become mediocre because of it.

 

[Tom79]

Mel, Dex and Ginyard did not ever make my list of all time favorites as Tar Heels, thanks for their play and all but not the best players. As an example if Dex was the best player out of NJ as a senior in HS, then I'm Santa.

 

[dadika13]

Mel, Dex and Ginyard did not ever make my list of all time favorites as Tar Heels, thanks for their play and all but not the best players. As an example if Dex was the best player out of NJ as a senior in HS, then I'm Santa.

I watched a ton of Dexter and the top teams in NJ that year...if he wasn't the best, he was definitely one of them. Guys in HS couldn't handle his athleticism and his defense was lock down.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Add JP as point forward?

 

[gary-7]

Gary I followed Marcus recruitment pretty close. It was one of the first recruitments I followed. He was recruited as a PG not a combo. Infsct I read a premium article on him on another site. Roy was watching JP Tokato play, and asks him what of would you like to play with. KP answers that he wants to play with Marcus Paige. So coach goes and watches him. Not long after he offers him. My point to the story was I dig your research and find it mostly accurate except for the Marcus thing.

Several schools, including Iowa, heavily recruited Paige, whom Rivals ranks as the nation's sixth-best point guard.

Exert from the Gazette

I hear ya, but read what I posted again... yes, Roy did indeed recruit him primarily as a point (much more so than Coby in fact) but Marcus was considered a 1/2 Combo by much of the basketball world because of his HS volume shooting and scoring chops. In other words, there were some questions about his adaptation to the 1, plus to be sure, he was naturally very good as a 2 ("Combo" is not a dirty word ).

Roy (as was I) was confident Marcus could be a good college 1. He had the smarts (including the requisite "basketball IQ") --- he just had to adjust to a very different role than he was used to. Ideally he would've had the luxury of learning behind Kendall for a year, but Creighton took care of that and Marcus got thrown into the fire from day-one. Therein lies my point about Coby. Even if (and that's a big "if) he has the same aptitude for the 1 that Marcus did, MP underwent a big culture-shock that first year before he hit his stride --- more so than the PG1s listed or even Bobby (who was the quintessential "coach's-kid"). One would expect Coby to experience at least that much difficulty as a frosh.

 

[gary-7]

I watched a ton of Dexter and the top teams in NJ that year...if he wasn't the best, he was definitely one of them. Guys in HS couldn't handle his athleticism and his defense was lock down.

Spot on. Dex had a bumpy road here early on because he was a square peg trying to learn Point in our system. Sure enough, his ultimate best contributions came off the ball (with some backup at the 1).

You're description is dead on, though. Speed, explosion and could flat D-up. The only thing that kept him from being a huge star at the 2 was his balky outside shot.

 

[gary-7]

Add JP as point forward?

No, no and no....
Seriously though, he wanted to be, and that ended up giving Roy a headache.

 

[dadika13]

that ended up giving Roy a headache.

...and all of us also

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

No, no and no....
Seriously though, he wanted to be, and that ended up giving Roy a headache.

He was fine at it when we needed him to be. Later in the season, when Marcus was healthier, JP didn't want to step back into the shadows. Roy handled JP poorly. I'm not usually critical of Roy, but that was one time I think he blew it.

 

[Ozheelfan]

He was fine at it when we needed him to be. Later in the season, when Marcus was healthier, JP didn't want to step back into the shadows. Roy handled JP poorly. I'm not usually critical of Roy, but that was one time I think he blew it.

Wow.... don't know what more Roy could have done! Even in interviews JP all but admitted he was focussed on leading the team in assists, even when it was obvious he was a black hole in the half court. I had the impression he spent his jnr season looking at the A column in the box score more than the W column in the schedule.

 

[gary-7]

He was fine at it when we needed him to be. Later in the season, when Marcus was healthier, JP didn't want to step back into the shadows. Roy handled JP poorly. I'm not usually critical of Roy, but that was one time I think he blew it.

I'm going to strongly disagree on one count and agree on another. I loved JP coming in but he didn't understand his role. Ya see, it's good to make some nice passes from the wing (which he did from time to time) but when you hold the ball... and hold the ball... and hold the ball... until something finally comes open that destroys our offense. Roy finally called it out in a presser about JP needing to "play like a 3".

That being said, yes Roy himself is somewhat to blame in that he tried to play Jackson and JP together which just didn't work. Jackson wanted no part of being a 2 and JP had no business trying to be a 2. When Berry and Paige were in together JP had to behave himself and act like a 3... and since that should have been the starting backcourt, yeah, Roy enabled JP's shenanigans.

 

[GoNtheDistance]

Roy shoulders ZERO blame for JP. You can’t babysit a kid who believes he’s something that he’s not. (Position, skill set, etc). JP is one of those kids who never embraced his role and was a detriment to the overall succezz of the team on and off the court. Time heals.

 

[gary-7]

Roy shoulders ZERO blame for JP. You can’t babysit a kid who believes he’s something that he’s not. (Position, skill set, etc). JP is one of those kids who never embraced his role and was a detriment to the overall succezz of the team on and off the court. Time heals.

Sorry, but that's not really accurate. Look, I'm as critical as anyone of some of JP's habits that season, but scapegoating him for all that team's problems really isn't fair either. Contrary to rumor JP was not a distraction off the court. Yes, his often frustrating on-court performance was an issue but it wasn't the root. In other words, JP was more symptom than cause.

Now... was there dissension on that team? Oh hell yes --- and I heard about it in gory detail as it was happening, warts and all. I've referenced some of it on here, but there are also some parts I'll never post. But suffice to say the dissension wasn't within the players, it was between key players and coaches (mostly Roy). Look, I challenge anyone to claim they're a bigger fan of Roy Williams than I am, but nobody's perfect, and the most diplomatic way I can put it is that 2014-15 was a rough coaching season for our guy. (To be fair, that was a rough season for the entire Carolina Family, and I'm sure Roy was carrying a huge emotional burden.) To everyone's credit, the team and staff eventually survived the turmoil loving one another and moving forward to brighter horizons, but things got sketchy for a spell, and didn't completely heal until well into the following season.

Although there were some individual issues here and there --- the elephant in the room was that dysfunctional lineup, and that was on Roy. The fact that it enabled JP to stray from his best role was merely one of the myriad bad results. And let's be real --- if I could sit here and critique it and pick it apart with numbers, the guys who were actually practicing and playing sure as hell saw it and lived it, and the frustration eventually boiled over, and was exacerbated by the fact there was an easy and obvious fix, which frankly took too long to acknowledge, and then only partially implemeted.