Baylor rolled early but limps into this bowl game due to several significant injuries. North Carolina almost ran the table, losing only in game #1 and game #13. Buyer beware: Two good teams play here but neither may be focused.
Baylor’s story: Baylor was my pick to be in the final four due to schedule and talent. They got to host Oklahoma, but did so with a brand new QB. By the time they faced Texas they had no QB, and ended up using a WR instead to try to win that game. For this bowl game they will play with a third string QB (15-38 passing). They also lose stud RB Linwood (nearly 1,200 yards and over 6 yards per carry) and great WR Coleman (74 receptions, great yardage, 20 TD’s!). The replacement RB’s and WR’s have talent, but losing game-changing guys has to hurt. Baylor’s run defense was decent, as was their pass defense. They’ll be tested here as N Car has run-pass balance but playing Texas Tech, West Virginia, and others has prepped them for this challenge. Baylor had a 29-15 sack ratio.
N Car’s story: The Tar Heels had three red zone mistakes in game #1 vs. South Carolina (lost by four), and had too many defensive lapses vs. Clemson, losing by eight when a “recovered” onside kick was awarded to the Tigers. North Carolina scored 26 or more from game #2 on out. The point defense was much better but the run defense was not, at 4.9 allowed per carry. The pass defense was on my projection of 59%. At full strength Baylor would present a significant challenge but as noted above the Bears are far from full strength. QB Williams has run-pass ability but is best working in open space. He does panic a bit in tight spaces. The Tar Heels also possess run-pass balance and have a few WR options. One concern is their very poor negative 9:06 time of possession deficit. They have problems on third down defense, but also have a strong third down offense, so the overall possession figure is hard to figure out. They have a modest 23-14 sack ratio.
Special Teams: Baylor’s kicker has a long of just 39. North Carolina’s kicker was 19-22, with a long of 48. WR Switzer is a legit punt return threat and RB Logan a decent kick return threat and they both play for North Carolina.
The situations: None, except for motivation! How focused will Baylor be without their top players? North Carolina is not even playing in a big six bowl game after nearly playing toe to toe with #1 rated Clemson.
Game keys: Other than intensity, here are the keys. For Baylor, their QB was 15-38, but 7-24 came vs. the press defense of TCU. I actually expect Johnson to have a surprisingly decent pass % here. The area Baylor must address is special teams. They must convert on third down in plus territory as their kicker has little range and they need to stop North Carolina’s potent return game. The Tar Heels have to stiffen when playing the run or else Baylor’s QB will get in a rhythm. Elusive WR/return specialist Switzer needs to show off his stuff. QB Williams must avoid making bad decisions. He’s improved in that area, but not under the heavy spotlight.
Courtesy of WagerTalk News
Baylor’s story: Baylor was my pick to be in the final four due to schedule and talent. They got to host Oklahoma, but did so with a brand new QB. By the time they faced Texas they had no QB, and ended up using a WR instead to try to win that game. For this bowl game they will play with a third string QB (15-38 passing). They also lose stud RB Linwood (nearly 1,200 yards and over 6 yards per carry) and great WR Coleman (74 receptions, great yardage, 20 TD’s!). The replacement RB’s and WR’s have talent, but losing game-changing guys has to hurt. Baylor’s run defense was decent, as was their pass defense. They’ll be tested here as N Car has run-pass balance but playing Texas Tech, West Virginia, and others has prepped them for this challenge. Baylor had a 29-15 sack ratio.
N Car’s story: The Tar Heels had three red zone mistakes in game #1 vs. South Carolina (lost by four), and had too many defensive lapses vs. Clemson, losing by eight when a “recovered” onside kick was awarded to the Tigers. North Carolina scored 26 or more from game #2 on out. The point defense was much better but the run defense was not, at 4.9 allowed per carry. The pass defense was on my projection of 59%. At full strength Baylor would present a significant challenge but as noted above the Bears are far from full strength. QB Williams has run-pass ability but is best working in open space. He does panic a bit in tight spaces. The Tar Heels also possess run-pass balance and have a few WR options. One concern is their very poor negative 9:06 time of possession deficit. They have problems on third down defense, but also have a strong third down offense, so the overall possession figure is hard to figure out. They have a modest 23-14 sack ratio.
Special Teams: Baylor’s kicker has a long of just 39. North Carolina’s kicker was 19-22, with a long of 48. WR Switzer is a legit punt return threat and RB Logan a decent kick return threat and they both play for North Carolina.
The situations: None, except for motivation! How focused will Baylor be without their top players? North Carolina is not even playing in a big six bowl game after nearly playing toe to toe with #1 rated Clemson.
Game keys: Other than intensity, here are the keys. For Baylor, their QB was 15-38, but 7-24 came vs. the press defense of TCU. I actually expect Johnson to have a surprisingly decent pass % here. The area Baylor must address is special teams. They must convert on third down in plus territory as their kicker has little range and they need to stop North Carolina’s potent return game. The Tar Heels have to stiffen when playing the run or else Baylor’s QB will get in a rhythm. Elusive WR/return specialist Switzer needs to show off his stuff. QB Williams must avoid making bad decisions. He’s improved in that area, but not under the heavy spotlight.
Courtesy of WagerTalk News
