For discussion on upcoming tournaments. First the ACCT. . . .
UNC currently sits at #5, one game behind L'ville and two behind ND, with two to play. 'Cuse behind us, but they cannot go to the tournament (self-imposed sanctions), so I don't know how their seeding will affect everything (does that mean the team behind Syracuse is the #6 seed anc 'Cuse is really #15?). Pitt could catch UNC if the Heels lose both games and Pitt wins. UNC must beat GT to avoid dropping to 6th
Games left:
UNC: @GT; vs dook, possible 2-0, realistic 1-1
L'ville: vs ND; vs UVa, given they are now down a player against two top teams, realistic, 0-2, possible 1-1
ND: @ L'ville; vs Clemson, realistic 2-0, possible 1-1
Pitt: vs Miami; @ FSU, possible 1-1, likely 2-0
So, if UNC goes 1-1 and L'ville goes 0-2, possible that we tie. We split regular season; so it gets really complicated for the tiebreaker--the better record against the top teams, working down from #1. UNC lost to UVa, as did L'ville, but they play again. Both teams lost to dook, but UNC plays dook again. UNC lost to ND, and L'ville plays them next.
The bigger question is, is the #4 seed worth it? UNC has enough depth, that I'm not sure the extra game hurts us, and may help us stay in a rhythm. If 5th, UNC would play winner of 12/13 game (Wake/GT), and then L'ville (as #4). If UNC was 4th, they await the winner of L'ville vs. Wake/GT. Winner of the 4/5 game plays winner of 1/vs 8/9 (currently UVa vs Miami/State).
My thoughts; 4 vs 5 seed really doesn't matter. It may come into play if you are the #5 and played an extra game only if you reach the championship against the higher seed, who played one less game. Even if UNC falls to #6, they would play the winner of FSU/BC and then #3 (currently ND, could be dook).
I really don't see much of a difference for us between #4, 5, or 6? Thoughts?
NCAAT, Lunardi has us a #5 right now, playing #12 Harvard. 5/12 matchups are the most upset prone in the NCAA. Usually a 12 seed is a mid-major champion. If you win, you take on the #4 and then the #1 (currently, Lunardi has us in UVa's bracket). I'd almost rather be a 6-seed in the West; based upon current Lunardi brackets, open with #11 Oregon, then likely #3 Oklahoma, and then likely #2 Arizona. As a #6, we are in the 2-side of the bracket, rather than the 1-seed. Want to move up to a 4-seed? Again, puts us in the #1 side, rather than the #2 side, but you play #13, and not #12.
I see us as #4-6 seed. If we beat GT, loose to dook, and win round 1 of ACCT, we are likely #5. Beat dook and/or win 2 games in ACCT, and we are #4. Beat GT, lose to dook, and lose in 1st round of ACCT and we are #6, possibly #7. Better first round opponents, but as a 6/7, you are in the lower half of the bracket and playing #2 possibly, rather than #1. I see us as a #5.
Thoughts?
UNC currently sits at #5, one game behind L'ville and two behind ND, with two to play. 'Cuse behind us, but they cannot go to the tournament (self-imposed sanctions), so I don't know how their seeding will affect everything (does that mean the team behind Syracuse is the #6 seed anc 'Cuse is really #15?). Pitt could catch UNC if the Heels lose both games and Pitt wins. UNC must beat GT to avoid dropping to 6th
Games left:
UNC: @GT; vs dook, possible 2-0, realistic 1-1
L'ville: vs ND; vs UVa, given they are now down a player against two top teams, realistic, 0-2, possible 1-1
ND: @ L'ville; vs Clemson, realistic 2-0, possible 1-1
Pitt: vs Miami; @ FSU, possible 1-1, likely 2-0
So, if UNC goes 1-1 and L'ville goes 0-2, possible that we tie. We split regular season; so it gets really complicated for the tiebreaker--the better record against the top teams, working down from #1. UNC lost to UVa, as did L'ville, but they play again. Both teams lost to dook, but UNC plays dook again. UNC lost to ND, and L'ville plays them next.
The bigger question is, is the #4 seed worth it? UNC has enough depth, that I'm not sure the extra game hurts us, and may help us stay in a rhythm. If 5th, UNC would play winner of 12/13 game (Wake/GT), and then L'ville (as #4). If UNC was 4th, they await the winner of L'ville vs. Wake/GT. Winner of the 4/5 game plays winner of 1/vs 8/9 (currently UVa vs Miami/State).
My thoughts; 4 vs 5 seed really doesn't matter. It may come into play if you are the #5 and played an extra game only if you reach the championship against the higher seed, who played one less game. Even if UNC falls to #6, they would play the winner of FSU/BC and then #3 (currently ND, could be dook).
I really don't see much of a difference for us between #4, 5, or 6? Thoughts?
NCAAT, Lunardi has us a #5 right now, playing #12 Harvard. 5/12 matchups are the most upset prone in the NCAA. Usually a 12 seed is a mid-major champion. If you win, you take on the #4 and then the #1 (currently, Lunardi has us in UVa's bracket). I'd almost rather be a 6-seed in the West; based upon current Lunardi brackets, open with #11 Oregon, then likely #3 Oklahoma, and then likely #2 Arizona. As a #6, we are in the 2-side of the bracket, rather than the 1-seed. Want to move up to a 4-seed? Again, puts us in the #1 side, rather than the #2 side, but you play #13, and not #12.
I see us as #4-6 seed. If we beat GT, loose to dook, and win round 1 of ACCT, we are likely #5. Beat dook and/or win 2 games in ACCT, and we are #4. Beat GT, lose to dook, and lose in 1st round of ACCT and we are #6, possibly #7. Better first round opponents, but as a 6/7, you are in the lower half of the bracket and playing #2 possibly, rather than #1. I see us as a #5.
Thoughts?
