I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.
The graph shows the Assists Per Made Field Goal(A/FG), by year, for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of February 23, 2024. The grey line shows the A/FG for all of Division I, while the green line shows the A/FG for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time there has been a steady, but light decline in A/FG, about 8%.
As with many other stats, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady, but only about 3% higher for tournament teams.
UNC, shown in blue, has had significantly higher A/FG than even the tournament teams in most years, but recently has fallen back to average levels.
How important is this statistic? Contrary to my previous thoughts, it is not an important stat at all. In fact A/FG has a very poor correlation factor with both Winning Percentage (0.235) and Tournament Wins (0.043). The current UNC team has one of the lowest A/FG rates its had in the modern era, but when we look at it with Points Per Possession with all of the NCAA Tournament teams in the last 23 seasons, we see that UNC (red dot) this season isn't as much of an outlier as I had previously touted. Ahh...the insatiable quest for knowledge!
Next up: Tournament Selection Prediction
The graph shows the Assists Per Made Field Goal(A/FG), by year, for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of February 23, 2024. The grey line shows the A/FG for all of Division I, while the green line shows the A/FG for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time there has been a steady, but light decline in A/FG, about 8%.
As with many other stats, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady, but only about 3% higher for tournament teams.
UNC, shown in blue, has had significantly higher A/FG than even the tournament teams in most years, but recently has fallen back to average levels.
How important is this statistic? Contrary to my previous thoughts, it is not an important stat at all. In fact A/FG has a very poor correlation factor with both Winning Percentage (0.235) and Tournament Wins (0.043). The current UNC team has one of the lowest A/FG rates its had in the modern era, but when we look at it with Points Per Possession with all of the NCAA Tournament teams in the last 23 seasons, we see that UNC (red dot) this season isn't as much of an outlier as I had previously touted. Ahh...the insatiable quest for knowledge!
Next up: Tournament Selection Prediction
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