I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.
Offensive rebounding has certainly become a much-discussed statistic in recent years. Unfortunately the NCAA's data doesn't report this stat before 2015, so we only have just under 10 seasons of data to evaluate (3,483 teams). Even with that, though, if we look at the percentage of missed shots that are rebounded by the offense, there is still valuable insight to be had.
The graph shows the Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%), by year, for the last 10 seasons, through the morning of February 25, 2024. The grey line shows the OR% for all of Division I, while the green line shows the OR% for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time the figure has held in the low-30% range nationally.
As with many other stats, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady, about 1-2 percentage points above the national average.
UNC, shown in blue, had significantly higher OR% than the tournament teams when Roy Williams was the coach, but has fallen to the tournament average level under Hubert Davis.
How important is this statistic? Despite Roy Williams' affinity for rebounding, its correlation factor with Winning Percentage is only 0.276, yet its correlation with making the tournament is a handsome 0.547.
This, again, is a decent metric to use for team success, but it is among many like it in usefulness.
Next up: Opponent Field Goal Percentage
Offensive rebounding has certainly become a much-discussed statistic in recent years. Unfortunately the NCAA's data doesn't report this stat before 2015, so we only have just under 10 seasons of data to evaluate (3,483 teams). Even with that, though, if we look at the percentage of missed shots that are rebounded by the offense, there is still valuable insight to be had.
The graph shows the Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%), by year, for the last 10 seasons, through the morning of February 25, 2024. The grey line shows the OR% for all of Division I, while the green line shows the OR% for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time the figure has held in the low-30% range nationally.
As with many other stats, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady, about 1-2 percentage points above the national average.
UNC, shown in blue, had significantly higher OR% than the tournament teams when Roy Williams was the coach, but has fallen to the tournament average level under Hubert Davis.
How important is this statistic? Despite Roy Williams' affinity for rebounding, its correlation factor with Winning Percentage is only 0.276, yet its correlation with making the tournament is a handsome 0.547.
This, again, is a decent metric to use for team success, but it is among many like it in usefulness.
Next up: Opponent Field Goal Percentage
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