I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.
So far I've covered offense and rebounding. Now we'll dive into the defensive stats.
The graph shows the Defensive Field Goal Percentage (fg%), by year, for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of February 26, 2024. The grey line shows the fg% for all of Division I, while the green line shows the fg% for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time the national average has held exclusively between 43% and 44%.
As with many other stats, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady, about 1.5-2.0 percentage points below the national average.
UNC, shown in blue, has been inconsistent, but as hovered around the tournament average line most years. This year's team, though, looks like it might push opponents below the tournament average by as much as the 2012 team did. That's certainly a good sign heading into March.
How important is this statistic? It's one of the biggies. Its correlation factor with Winning Percentage is an impressive -0.607, second only to Offensive field Goal Percentage. Points Per Possession (Smith or Modern) are better estimators of success, but as far as box score stats go, these are the two that deserve the most focus.
Next up: Opponent Shooting Breakdown
So far I've covered offense and rebounding. Now we'll dive into the defensive stats.
The graph shows the Defensive Field Goal Percentage (fg%), by year, for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of February 26, 2024. The grey line shows the fg% for all of Division I, while the green line shows the fg% for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time the national average has held exclusively between 43% and 44%.
As with many other stats, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady, about 1.5-2.0 percentage points below the national average.
UNC, shown in blue, has been inconsistent, but as hovered around the tournament average line most years. This year's team, though, looks like it might push opponents below the tournament average by as much as the 2012 team did. That's certainly a good sign heading into March.
How important is this statistic? It's one of the biggies. Its correlation factor with Winning Percentage is an impressive -0.607, second only to Offensive field Goal Percentage. Points Per Possession (Smith or Modern) are better estimators of success, but as far as box score stats go, these are the two that deserve the most focus.
Next up: Opponent Shooting Breakdown
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