I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.
The NCAA's data doesn't report Offensive Rebounding from before 2015, but I was able to find it at TeamRankings.com. They also post the opponent figures. From this, we can see the trend of Offensive Rebounding allowed by teams.
The graph shows the Offensive Rebounding Percentage Allowed (or%), or "Defensive Rebounding Percentage", for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of March 2, 2024. The grey line shows the or% for all of Division I, while the green line shows the or% for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year.
Over the last two decades we have seen this figures fall by about 5 percentage points or so. This trend needs further investigation.
The national and tournament figures average have remained aligned with each other, so the impact this stat has on making the tournament is miniscule.
UNC, shown in blue, has had significantly lower or% than the national and tournament averages since 2017. This, too, is something that needs further investigation.
How important is this statistic? Despite everyone's affinity for rebounding, its correlation factor with Winning Percentage is only 0.273, almost exactly what it is for OR%. This, again, is a decent metric to use for team success, but it is among many like it in usefulness.
Next up: Points Per Possession (Smith and Modern)
The NCAA's data doesn't report Offensive Rebounding from before 2015, but I was able to find it at TeamRankings.com. They also post the opponent figures. From this, we can see the trend of Offensive Rebounding allowed by teams.
The graph shows the Offensive Rebounding Percentage Allowed (or%), or "Defensive Rebounding Percentage", for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of March 2, 2024. The grey line shows the or% for all of Division I, while the green line shows the or% for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year.
Over the last two decades we have seen this figures fall by about 5 percentage points or so. This trend needs further investigation.
The national and tournament figures average have remained aligned with each other, so the impact this stat has on making the tournament is miniscule.
UNC, shown in blue, has had significantly lower or% than the national and tournament averages since 2017. This, too, is something that needs further investigation.
How important is this statistic? Despite everyone's affinity for rebounding, its correlation factor with Winning Percentage is only 0.273, almost exactly what it is for OR%. This, again, is a decent metric to use for team success, but it is among many like it in usefulness.
Next up: Points Per Possession (Smith and Modern)
