I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.
Next up is game pace. The graph shows total possessions per game, by year, for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of February 15, 2024 (242,559 games in all). This analysis uses the "Smith Method" of defining a possession which is defined as ending whenever a team loses control of the ball. A possession can end with a made basket, a trip to the free throw line (1-and-1, 2, and 3-shot situations), a turnover, or an attempted field goal. It is important to remember the latter when gaining an understanding of this data compared to data published elsewhere. Stay tuned for much more on the topic of Possessions when I address the Ken Pomeroy data.
The grey line shows the per game average for all of Division I, while the green line shows the possession average for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Once again we see little difference in pace of play between tournament teams and the national average. Therefore pace isn't very useful in predicting a team's propensity to make the tournament.
In 2023 the average game had 158.7 possessions, with a standard deviation of 8.2. So, 2/3 of the games generally ranged from having 150 to 167 possessions, and 90% of games fell in the 142 to 175 possession range.
The national average, incidentally, is trends steeply upward in 2016,. This was the effect of reducing the shot clock from 35 seconds to 30 which increased game tempo by about 4%. This also explains the upward movement of scoring that we saw in the scoring graph in Part I of this series. Since that point, however, there has been a slight downward trend in pace of about 0.55 possessions per year.
UNC, shown in blue, has had significantly higher-paced games than the rest of the nation. We know that one of Roy Williams' tenants of coaching was faster play, so it stands to reason that his teams had more possessions than others. On average, his teams had 8.1% more possessions than the rest of the nation.
In addition to Possessions, I'll circle back later about Points Per Possession in great detail soon.
Next up: Field Goal Percentage
Next up is game pace. The graph shows total possessions per game, by year, for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of February 15, 2024 (242,559 games in all). This analysis uses the "Smith Method" of defining a possession which is defined as ending whenever a team loses control of the ball. A possession can end with a made basket, a trip to the free throw line (1-and-1, 2, and 3-shot situations), a turnover, or an attempted field goal. It is important to remember the latter when gaining an understanding of this data compared to data published elsewhere. Stay tuned for much more on the topic of Possessions when I address the Ken Pomeroy data.
The grey line shows the per game average for all of Division I, while the green line shows the possession average for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Once again we see little difference in pace of play between tournament teams and the national average. Therefore pace isn't very useful in predicting a team's propensity to make the tournament.
In 2023 the average game had 158.7 possessions, with a standard deviation of 8.2. So, 2/3 of the games generally ranged from having 150 to 167 possessions, and 90% of games fell in the 142 to 175 possession range.
The national average, incidentally, is trends steeply upward in 2016,. This was the effect of reducing the shot clock from 35 seconds to 30 which increased game tempo by about 4%. This also explains the upward movement of scoring that we saw in the scoring graph in Part I of this series. Since that point, however, there has been a slight downward trend in pace of about 0.55 possessions per year.
UNC, shown in blue, has had significantly higher-paced games than the rest of the nation. We know that one of Roy Williams' tenants of coaching was faster play, so it stands to reason that his teams had more possessions than others. On average, his teams had 8.1% more possessions than the rest of the nation.
In addition to Possessions, I'll circle back later about Points Per Possession in great detail soon.
Next up: Field Goal Percentage
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