Stat Dive (part 20): Points Per Possession History at UNC

[JimmyNaismith]

I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.

Before we get into the weeds about Points Per Possession, let's look at UNC's history with the stat, using the Smith Method for determining possessions. The following graph shows UNC's points per possession on the Y-axis, and Points Per Possession Allowed on the X-axis. Up and to the left is good, while down and right is bad.

The current year's team is in red, while Final Four teams are in gold.

If you subscribe to the concept of profiles, this team's profile is almost identical to that of 1988, and close to 2016, 2019, and 2017. Here is how each of those team's faired:

• 1988: UNC was a 2-seed and lost to 1-seed Arizona in the Elite Eight (52-70). UNC shot 36% from the field with Kevin Madden going 1-9 and Ranzino Smith going 3-12. The team shot 38% from inside the arc. Meanwhile the Wildcats were a 3-man operation: Steve Kerr had 14, Sean Elliot had 24, and Tom Tolbert had 21. UNC had a pretty good team with 4 future NBA players, but couldn't throw the ball in the ocean that day.
• 2016: UNC was a 1-seed and lost to 2-seed Villanova in the National Championship. I won't go further into that one.
• 2017: UNC was a 1-seed and beat 1-seed Gonzaga to win the National Championship.
• 2019: UNC was a 1-seed and lost to 5-seed Auburn in the Sweet 16 (80-97). UNC shot 43% from the field with Cameron Johnson going 4-11 (2-7 from 3) and Coby White going 4-15 (0-7 from 3). Auburn's Chuma Okeke (Orlando Magic) scored 20 while Dunbar, Brown, and Purefoy were in the 12 neighborhood.

There is a bit of a pattern here. UNC is playing like 4 teams that went deeply into the tournament. Up front this team is stronger than the 2019 team, but not as good as the 2016 and 2017 teams. The 1988 team had JR Reid, who was better than any of this team's frontcourt players. The current backcourt is more like the 2016 and 2017 teams, where it has players that couldn't be stopped at times in the seasons. The big differences with this team are the inconstancy of Cormac Ryan's perimeter shot and the unstoppable periods of RJ Davis' play.

Consistency​

Here are the average Points Per Possession (PPP) and Points Per Possession Allowed (ppp) for each of these comparable teams. The second column is the standard deviation's percentage of the average (lower numbers mean more consistency):

Year	PPP	DEV%	ppp	dev%
2016	0.994	12.3%	0.869	13.3%
2017	0.963	13.0%	0.863	18.1%
2019	0.970	14.0%	0.872	17.3%
2024	0.981	11.5%	0.866	17.0%

From this table we can see that this 2024 team is the 2nd most efficient offensive team in the group (0.981), but is easily the most consistent offensively (11.5%). Its profile is the most like that outstanding 2016 team on offense. On defense they are most like those 2016 and 2017 teams that made it to the championship games, but are inconsistent like the 2019 team. From these stats we can conclude that the 2016 team was the best of the group, and that the current team is probably more like the 2016 and 2017 teams than it is the 2019 team.

The tournament is all about matchups, and there isn't a single stat that predicts tournament success very well. Given that only one team gets to cut down the nets, it feels like what we have to really watch for is a team in the Final 8 or Final 4 with that special NBA player who goes off on us.

Next up: Points Per Possession National History