I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.
The graph shows the national average in grey, the average for NCAA Tournament teams in green, and UNC's average in blue.
From this we see that national PPP has essentially climbed from the 0.86 range to now surpassing 0.90. That's an increase of 5-6% over the last quarter of a century. Conversely it means that defenses are 5-6% worse than they were at the turn of the century.
Tournament teams demonstrated the same pattern as the national average, hovering about 0.05 points per possession higher (~5%) than the national average.
UNC's PPP history has not followed the national lines, but seems to be best associated with the talent levels on the roster. It appears to be surpassing this year's anticipated tournament average, and is among the highest we've seen at UNC. In fact since the 3-point line was invented, UNC has only had 8 teams that produced a higher offensive points per possession average.
Looking at the Points Per Possession Allowed, we see roughly the same results with the national and tournament averages. Remember that in this graph, lower values are better, and Dean Smith's goal was to hold teams below 0.85. That goal has not been met since 2016, and we've seen UNC's program fall back to national average levels instead of tournament average levels. This season's team seems to be in line with tournament averages, as the teams in 2016 and 2017 were.
Next up: Points Per Possession (Smith and Modern)
Offense
Now let's look at how Points Per Possession (Smith Method) has played out over the last 23 seasons (244,436 games).
The graph shows the national average in grey, the average for NCAA Tournament teams in green, and UNC's average in blue.
From this we see that national PPP has essentially climbed from the 0.86 range to now surpassing 0.90. That's an increase of 5-6% over the last quarter of a century. Conversely it means that defenses are 5-6% worse than they were at the turn of the century.
Tournament teams demonstrated the same pattern as the national average, hovering about 0.05 points per possession higher (~5%) than the national average.
UNC's PPP history has not followed the national lines, but seems to be best associated with the talent levels on the roster. It appears to be surpassing this year's anticipated tournament average, and is among the highest we've seen at UNC. In fact since the 3-point line was invented, UNC has only had 8 teams that produced a higher offensive points per possession average.
Defense
Looking at the Points Per Possession Allowed, we see roughly the same results with the national and tournament averages. Remember that in this graph, lower values are better, and Dean Smith's goal was to hold teams below 0.85. That goal has not been met since 2016, and we've seen UNC's program fall back to national average levels instead of tournament average levels. This season's team seems to be in line with tournament averages, as the teams in 2016 and 2017 were.
Next up: Points Per Possession (Smith and Modern)
