I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.
While the changes are noticeable, they are much more slight than I imagined. The changes that are occurring are most likely due to altered officiating, new rules, younger players getting increased playing time, and more transfers who haven't jelled with their teams as well. The biggest surprise to me that tempo has not changed.
Next up: Table of Contents, Resources
Has the game changed in the last 23 years?
Not much. If you look at the following table, you can see how the stats I reviewed in this series changed. Overall offenses are a little better for a few reasons. First, players are creating their own shots a little more and making them. Second, 3-point shooting has become slightly more popular, and the percentage has stayed flat. Finally turnovers are noticeably down. The converse is probably true, though; defense is not as good.While the changes are noticeable, they are much more slight than I imagined. The changes that are occurring are most likely due to altered officiating, new rules, younger players getting increased playing time, and more transfers who haven't jelled with their teams as well. The biggest surprise to me that tempo has not changed.
What Stats are Important?
As we all huddle around fresh new brackets next week, we tend to consult certain stats to guide us in making our picks. Here are the main stats in reverse order of how they correlate with Winning Percentage (worst = 0.0, best = 1.0):| Stat | Corr (W%) | Change | Tourney Teams vs. Typical Teams - Difference |
| KenPom AdjEM | 0.78 | ||
| Pts/Poss (Smith) | 0.68 | ↑0.05 pts/poss (large) | 0.05 greater |
| Opp Pts/Poss (Smith) | -0.65 | ||
| FG% | 0.63 | flat | 2 pctg pts greater |
| Opp Effective FG% | -0.61 | ||
| Opp FG% | -0.60 | ||
| Assist/Turnover | 0.59 | ↑0.2 /game | 0.075 greater |
| Points | 0.58 | ↑0.29 pts/game per yr | no difference |
| Field Goals Made | 0.57 | ||
| Assists | 0.57 | ||
| KenPom AdjD | -0.56 | ||
| 2-pt FG% | 0.55 | ↑3 pctg pts | 2 pctg pts greater |
| Opp 2-pt FG% | -0.53 | ||
| Assists/Possession | 0.50 | ||
| Rebounds | 0.49 | ||
| Pct Loss of Ball | -0.46 | ↓3 pctg pts | 1 pctg pt fewer |
| OPP 3pt FG% | -0.46 | ||
| OPP Asst/TO | -0.46 | ||
| 2pt FGs Made | 0.45 | ||
| Free Throws Made | 0.42 | ||
| Blocks | 0.39 | ||
| Field Goals Attempted | 0.39 | ||
| OPP Pers. Fouls | 0.37 | ||
| Free Throws Attempted | 0.36 | ↓2.5/gm | 0.5/gm greater |
| FT Trips | 0.36 | ||
| Steals | 0.35 | ||
| Possessions | 0.35 | ||
| Possessions Total | 0.33 | varied, no long term chg | no difference |
| OPP Asst/FGM | -0.33 | ||
| OPP turnovers | 0.32 | ||
| 3pt Field Goals Made | 0.32 | ||
| Opp FG Attempts | 0.31 | ||
| Opp Possessions | 0.31 | ||
| Opp 2pt FGA | 0.31 | ||
| Opp Off Rb Pct | -0.27 | ||
| Free Throw Pct | 0.27 | ↑3 pctg pts | 1 pctg pt greater |
| Effective FG% | 0.26 | ↑2 pctg pts | 2 pctg pts greater |
| KenPom SOS AdjEM | 0.25 | ||
| Assists/FGM | 0.24 | ↓0.03 | 0.02 greater (small dif) |
| 3pt FGs Attempted | 0.23 | ||
| 3pt FG% | 0.23 | flat | ~1.25 pctg greater |
| KenPon AdjO | 0.21 | ||
| 2pt FGs Attempted | 0.21 | ||
| Disqualifications | -0.20 | ||
| Possession Advantage | 0.20 | flat | 0.5 possessions (small) |
| Opp Assists | -0.18 | ||
| Opp 3FG Attempted | 0.17 | ||
| KenPom SOS OppD | -0.17 | ||
| Opp Pct Loss of Ball | 0.17 | ||
| Defensive Rebounds | 0.11 | ||
| Offensive Rebounds | 0.10 | ||
| Personal Fouls | 0.09 | ||
| Opp Steals | -0.09 | ||
| Turnovers | -0.08 | ||
| Pct of 3s Taken | 0.08 | 3 pctg pt rise | no difference |
| Off Rebound Pct | 0.07 | flat | 2 pctg pts greater |
| Opp Off Reb Pct | -0.06 | ||
| Opp FT Pct | -0.06 | ||
| Opp FTM | -0.06 | ||
| Opp Rebounds | 0.06 | ||
| Opp Off Rebs | 0.06 | ||
| Opp 2pt FGM | 0.06 | ||
| Opp FT Trips | -0.05 | ||
| Opp FT Attempted | -0.05 | ||
| KenPom AdjT | -0.04 | ||
| Opp Assts/Poss | 0.04 | ||
| KenPom SOS OppO | 0.04 | ||
| Opp FGMs | 0.04 | ||
| Opp 3pt FG Made | -0.02 | ||
| Opp Points | 0.01 | ||
| KenPom NCSOS | -0.01 | ||
| Opp Blocks | 0.01 | ||
| Opp Def Rebs | 0.00 | ||
| KenPom Luck | 0.00 |
Next up: Table of Contents, Resources
