I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.
The graph shows the Assist to Turnover Ratio (ATO), by year, for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of February 21, 2024. The grey line shows the ATO for all of Division I, while the green line shows the ATO for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time there has been a noticeable increase of ATO, about a 20%. As we saw a decrease in turnovers in Part 8, it is not surprising to see an increase in a stat where the denominator is declining over time.
As with %LOB, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady; roughly 0.7 higher for tournament teams.
UNC, shown in blue, has had significantly higher ATO than even the tournament teams in most years. While the current team is taking care of the ball at historic levels, its assist level is very low, hence the moderate difference between its ATO and the anticipated tournament ATO.
ATO has a correlation factor with Winning Percentage of 0.596, one of the highest of all of the stats. In fact it is just a hair lower than that of eFG%. So, this is one of the more important stats you'll see.
Next up: Assists Per Made Field Goal
The graph shows the Assist to Turnover Ratio (ATO), by year, for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of February 21, 2024. The grey line shows the ATO for all of Division I, while the green line shows the ATO for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time there has been a noticeable increase of ATO, about a 20%. As we saw a decrease in turnovers in Part 8, it is not surprising to see an increase in a stat where the denominator is declining over time.
As with %LOB, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady; roughly 0.7 higher for tournament teams.
UNC, shown in blue, has had significantly higher ATO than even the tournament teams in most years. While the current team is taking care of the ball at historic levels, its assist level is very low, hence the moderate difference between its ATO and the anticipated tournament ATO.
ATO has a correlation factor with Winning Percentage of 0.596, one of the highest of all of the stats. In fact it is just a hair lower than that of eFG%. So, this is one of the more important stats you'll see.
Next up: Assists Per Made Field Goal
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